Better chance?

[cubsfan5150]

I personally think that we'll be watching the Braves come September as opposed to the Brewers. I think that we'll play well, but the Brewers will still run away with the division and it will come down to us and the Braves for the wild card. What do you guys think?

[David]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

[cubsfan5150]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

 

When pitching is good, pitching is good. It usually doesn't go up and down. Their hitting may cool a little, but they'll keep pitching well throughout the year.

[CubColtPacer]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

so will the Braves

[jersey cubs fan]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

It is hard to tell, but I have to assume the Braves will be in it, and at least flirt with the 90 win plateau. And you'll probably see an NL West team stay in the race as well.

[Derwood]

it's very early, but the Cubs are behind 4 teams for the WC already. Chances are a team like Arizona will fade, but the Braves/Mets, Padres and Dodgers all look strong. I hope the Giants collapse, just because I hate almost everyone on that team.

[David]

The Brewers will come back down to earth.

 

so will the Braves

 

This is true.

[bukie]

I think any way you look at it, the Cubs simply need to play well, all year, to be in contention. They can't bank on backing into the playoffs with 85 wins, as many speculated at the beginning of the year.

 

Milwaukee being good didn't come out of left field this year. They have a solid young team that can hit and pitch. They should be there all year, and the Cubs can't expect every team to have a month as bad as their April was, in order for them to catch up.

 

I have a feeling that Milwaukee, NY, San Diego and LA will be good all year. Probably the Braves as well. I don't see SF or Arizona keeping this up.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think any way you look at it, the Cubs simply need to play well, all year, to be in contention. They can't bank on backing into the playoffs with 85 wins, as many speculated at the beginning of the year.

 

That's the key. I think some people were happy with a .500 type team based on the Cardinals success with an 83 win team last year. There was never a guarantee that 83, or even 85 would win this division, and there still isn't. Likewise, there's no guarantee the wild card will come out of the east or west.

[badgercub]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

 

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

[cubsfan5150]

I think any way you look at it, the Cubs simply need to play well, all year, to be in contention. They can't bank on backing into the playoffs with 85 wins, as many speculated at the beginning of the year.

 

That's the key. I think some people were happy with a .500 type team based on the Cardinals success with an 83 win team last year. There was never a guarantee that 83, or even 85 would win this division, and there still isn't. Likewise, there's no guarantee the wild card will come out of the east or west.

 

 

I came into this season expecting 92-95 wins would win the division, but now I'm not so sure that the the Brewers, Mets, and Braves aren't all capable of winning that much. I also expected the Astros to be a little better than they've shown thus far, but they have a nack for getting better as the year goes on.

 

It might all play out at the trade deadline. I don't really see any trades out there that will make us much better, but the prospect of Wood returning to the bull-pen could be a nice jolt for us (I'm not banking on it).

[bukie]

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

The thing is, though, it hasn't been Sheets that has been the anchor of the staff so far. His numbers have been mostly pedestrian. Suppan and Capuano have been the "aces" of the staff, and the bullpen has been fantastic. Looking at Sheets' numbers, he may already be injured.

[cubsfan5150]

The thing is, though, it hasn't been Sheets that has been the anchor of the staff so far. His numbers have been mostly pedestrian. Suppan and Capuano have been the "aces" of the staff, and the bullpen has been fantastic. Looking at Sheets' numbers, he may already be injured.

 

Sound familiar??? Zambrano maybe?

Edited May 8, 2007 by cubsfan5150

[killthegoat06]

The thing is, though, it hasn't been Sheets that has been the anchor of the staff so far. His numbers have been mostly pedestrian. Suppan and Capuano have been the "aces" of the staff, and the bullpen has been fantastic. Looking at Sheets' numbers, he may already be injured.

 

Sound familiar??? Zambrano maybe?

 

Zambrano has historically started slow. If his numbers don't start to pick up by the end of may, then we can get worried.

[cubsfan5150]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

 

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

 

The Brewers have two pitchers in this years top 100 prospects, one of them Major League ready already. If they don't have depth with those two, they at least have trade bait.

[cubscausestress]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

 

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

the brewers do have a little depth at starting pitching. they have a kid at triple a, Gallardo, who has been unhittable this year. they also should be calling up Braun to play 3rd base before the all-star break. they have a good ballclub. who knows what will happen, though. there are a TON of games left.

[cubsfan5150]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

 

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

the brewers do have a little depth at starting pitching. they have a kid at triple a, Gallardo, who has been unhittable this year. they also should be calling up Braun to play 3rd base before the all-star break. they have a good ballclub. who knows what will happen, though. there are a TON of games left.

 

Although they've been terrible for MANY years, whomever is running that ballclub has put together a team that could rival the teams of the Braves in the early '90s if they can afford to keep them together for a number of years.

[Backtobanks]

That scenario crossed through my mind as well-it's just really hard to tell which teams would be in the WC race this early.

 

My goal for the team is that they can be 5 games over .500 each month from here on out (month of May starts today on that)-if they do that, then they would probably win at least one of the two races. Right now all the Cubs can do is win though-and if the Brewers do run away later in the summer, at least the team will still be in good position for the WC at that point.

 

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

If the Cubs win 95 games they will run away with the division. There aren't many teams that win 95 games in any division most years.

[badgercub]

That would project the Cubs to about 95 wins, if they can do that I think they win the Central without a doubt. As with any team but especially the Brewers, they are one injury to their starting rotation away from being a totally different team, and with Ben Sheets' history I don't think it is a jump to think this could happen. The Brewers do not have the depth to sustain a major injury to their starting rotation.

 

The thing is, though, it hasn't been Sheets that has been the anchor of the staff so far. His numbers have been mostly pedestrian. Suppan and Capuano have been the "aces" of the staff, and the bullpen has been fantastic. Looking at Sheets' numbers, he may already be injured.

 

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

[JenksFan5]

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

 

Currently, the Brewers have 2 guys that could fill the rotation out if somebody got injured. The first and most likely candidate would be Carlos Villanueva. He is major league tested and has pretty good success. He's got decent command and his best pitch is his A++ changeup. The Brewers are currently using him as a long relief man/seventh inning guy and his numbers are good (3-0, 2.79 ERA, 19.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP). He started the second half of last year and could easily step into the 5th spot with little drop in the overall strength of the staff. He's not Sheets, Suppan or Capuano, but he is on the same level as Bush and Vargas.

 

The second option would be Yovanni Gallardo. He is young and unproven, but he is putting up eye opening numbers in the minors (4-1, 2.19 ERA, 37 IP, 11 BB, 51 Ks 0.86 WHIP). Yo is knocking on the door, but is unproven at the major league level so he would be more of a risk, but he also has a higher ceiling than Villanueva. He has been very consistent at every level. Starting pitching depth is not the issue for the Brewers in my honest opinion, but I think Villanueva would get the nod over Gallardo based on experience alone and the fact that Villanueva is a bit older (24) vs. Gallardo (just turned 21 at end of Feb.).

 

Where this team is weakest would be in long relief. Also, injuries that would really hurt the team would be Fielder, Hardy, Weeks or Estrada. They really don't have a decent backup first baseman at all. Weeks and Hardy are obviously better than Counsell and Graffanino (although they would be serviceable) and Miller could not take the grind of catching every day if Estrada went down.

 

Great discussion. Where would you guys say that the Cubs biggest depth problem is?

[CoolHandLuke]

Between Carlos Villanueva, Yovani Gallardo, Zach Jackson and possibly Manny Parra, they have plenty of guys who could fill in at least decently if a starter goes down. There is absolutely no reason why Ryan Braun of the 1.142 ops should not be starting at third every day for this team.

[CubColtPacer]

I am just saying, if any one of their starters go down, it could be trouble. You bring a guy up from Triple A, you don't get the innings you might normally get, the bullpen gets taxed and then problems start to occur. Look at what happened to the Cubs last year, their bullpen got used and abused early and often. The Brewers might have a couple of nice pitching prospects but until they do it at the ML level you just don't know what you are going to get.

 

 

 

Great discussion. Where would you guys say that the Cubs biggest depth problem is?

 

Catcher is number one-putting Blanco in as the everyday catcher instead of Barrett would be a big loss to the offense (although not so far this season).

 

1B is another one-although the Cubs have two decent candidates to fill it this year unlike last year, that still is such a huge dropoff.

 

3B is probably the 3rd position player-the Cubs have Scott Moore in the minors who could come up and do an ok job filling in, but it would be trouble if he had to be in the lineup for a long time.

 

Another SP is also a minor depth concern, although if Sean Marshall continues to pitch the way he has coming back from his injury that concern isn't very strong.

[CoolHandLuke]

Currently, the Brewers have 2 guys that could fill the rotation out if somebody got injured. The first and most likely candidate would be Carlos Villanueva. He is major league tested and has pretty good success. He's got decent command and his best pitch is his A++ changeup. The Brewers are currently using him as a long relief man/seventh inning guy and his numbers are good (3-0, 2.79 ERA, 19.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP). He started the second half of last year and could easily step into the 5th spot with little drop in the overall strength of the staff. He's not Sheets, Suppan or Capuano, but he is on the same level as Bush and Vargas.

 

I think you are drastically under-rating Bush when you say he is on the same level as Vargas and Villanueva. Even though his ERA is pretty ugly so far this year, I really think he is a better pitcher than Suppan or Capuano. He walks so few batters, he strikes out quite a bit, and he doesn't allow that many long balls. I would be willing to bet that he has a fairly high BABIP against, and he should be fine as that regresses to the mean.

 

 

Do you think Brad Nelson could at least be a serviceable replacement for Prince? Or if you want to get real creative I bet Hall, Jenkins or Mench could handle it and then a spot would open up for Gross in the outfield. Or possibly Braun if they insist on having Counsell and Graffanino platoon at third.

Edited May 8, 2007 by CoolHandLuke

[jersey cubs fan]

Depth isn't really an issue with me. The 13-15 best players on the team are really the ones that make all the difference.