Lou gives insight into the #2 spot

[NoDak]

It's not about OBP. It's about not having the opposing team pitch around Jones/Barrett. Jones gets eaten up by offspeed stuff. Having someone like Murton behind them ensures they don't get pitched around (offspeed stuff out of the zone).

 

Having Murton hit behind them doesn't ensure that at all. If a pitcher knows he can get Jones to chase bad pitches, he's going to continue to throw him bad pitches in most situations. Having Murton hitting behind him doesn't magically make Jones a more selective hitter.

 

Nope, it means Jones gets more fastballs, which he can hit. You don't pitch Jones outside the zone (with offspeed stuff) when you have a guy behind him that can hurt you. Murton has pop and XBH potential.

 

In most situations, a pitcher with any confidence in his stuff isn't going to care whether it's Murton or Barrett or Izturis hitting behind Jones. He's going to have a plan of attack and stick to it. If he knows he can get Jones to chase a certain offspeed pitch, having Murton hitting behind him instead of Jones isn't going to make the pitcher too scared to throw that pitch.

 

That's the difference between theory and practice. Watch decent hitters without lineup protection behind them. "Pitching around" someone isn't a made up concept. Sounds stupid, but it's done all the time.

 

I like Murton as much as the next guy, but I don't think that he would be considered "protection" in the same sense that Pujols/Lee would be considered "protection." Batting ARam after Lee may provide Lee with "protection" (may), but at this point in his career I don't think that Murton really provides "protection." Given that, why would a pitcher, knowing that Jones can hit fastballs and struggles with everything else, is not going to "cave in" and throw fastballs because MIGHTY MURTON is on deck.

[fromthestretch]

That's the difference between theory and practice. Watch decent hitters without lineup protection behind them. You take your chances with the basehit over the walk, throwing more fastballs (obviously not exclusively). Sounds stupid, but it's done all the time. If you have a pitcher who has better control of a different pitch, then you throw that, but most ML pitcher command the fastball best.

 

Actually, the theory is lineup protection, when the facts have indicated that it really makes no difference.

 

Where are these facts?

 

I'm sure the links to the studies have been posted numerous times. You could probably find the articles using google.

 

Whatever. You think batting Izturis behind DLee won't affect Lee's numbers? Of course lineup protection matters. It doesn't take a statistical study to figure out something that obvious.

 

So the stats are lying? In your words..."whatever."

 

There certainly are ways to lineup your batting order to maximize chances to score. However, the nine guys that are in your lineup are much more important than the order in which they bat.

 

In response to your ridiculous example, Lee would probably walk more if Izturis hit behind him. However, when you walk, you aren't making outs. And Lee is a good enough hitter to not go fishing for pitches out of the zone when pitchers are pitching around him constantly. This is irrelevent though. If you truly do believe in the theory of lineup protection, it's pointless to post an example of trying to protect your best hitter. Lineup protection goes by the theory that pitchers won't be inclined to pitch around a hitter if they fear the hitter behind him more. If Lee is the most feared hitter in the lineup, who could possibly protect him?

 

A better example would be to ask whether having Lee hit behind Izturis would help Izturis. Any improvement in Izturis' numbers with Lee behind him would most likely be minimal. In Izturis, you have an impatient hitter that puts the bat on the ball and doesn't tend to hit it with much authority. The damage he would do if you pitch to him would be minimal. Having Lee behind him isn't going to force pitchers to give him anything better to hit.

[craig]

My hope is that Hendry fails to acquire a LH compliment to Murton. That would make it much more likely that he'd hit in the #2 spot in the order as Lou would probably like a non-platoon player in that spot.

 

Hendry has a LH complement, at present. His name is Jones. He and Murton might combine to make a pretty dynamic offensive LF. The only Pin quote about the lineup, he mentioned Jones, batting 5th. He mentioned Izturis possibly 2nd or 8th, but didn't mention Murton, at all. He said things might change. But until/unless Hendry makes them change, Murton is the Jones complement. And that Jones/Murton platoon would work pretty well at the #5 spot.

 

Pie/Pagan seems to the current guys PinHendry is look at for CF, barring a transaction to be named later. Pin has never seen Pie, so I'm sure he's just going by whatever Hendry has told him. (Baker was also pretty gung-ho on Hill, Choi, Kelton, and Cruz, when all he knew about them was via Hendry-gush. Only after he saw them himself did things change.)

 

If Pie/Pagan are CF, there's a good chance that they'll deserve/need to bat 8th. That will maybe force Pin to consider Izturis for 2nd

 

Hendry obviously likes Izzy. Right or wrong, I assume he's hoping he'll get the best-of-Izturis. Which was: all-star, gold-glove, .288 batting averaege, and .040-.050 IsoD (each of last three years for that IsoD). If Izzy bats .280, and IsoD's at >0.040, you've got a .320+ OBP. If you combined that with a gold-glove SS, that wouldn't look so bat batting 2nd. It would look better batting 8th, but if Pie/Pagan are struggling, I can understand why a manager might prefer to keep the pressure reduced and hide them 8th.

 

I'm not advocating, or defending. I'm just trying to understand.

[UK1679666180]

For me it's about best fit...

 

Using the standard 20-80 scale. I'm comparing each player's hitting and speed to their overall spot in the order and defense with their position.

 

Murton as a #2 hitter and LF.

Hitting-55

Power-55

Speed-40

Arm/Defense-50

 

Izturis as a #2 hitter and SS.

Hitting-35

Power-40

Speed-50

Arm/Defense-60

 

Murton as a #5 hitter.

Hitting-50

Power-45

 

Izturis as a #8 hitter.

Hitting-40

Power-40

 

If the Cubs switch to a platoon w/Jones and Murton and whomever they fill CF with it obviously changes as far how it'll be constructed, but to maximize it in its current state, the Cubs, IMO would be best off going with Soriano/Murton.

[goonys evil twin]

My hope is that Hendry fails to acquire a LH compliment to Murton. That would make it much more likely that he'd hit in the #2 spot in the order as Lou would probably like a non-platoon player in that spot.

 

Hendry has a LH complement, at present. His name is Jones. He and Murton might combine to make a pretty dynamic offensive LF. The only Pin quote about the lineup, he mentioned Jones, batting 5th. He mentioned Izturis possibly 2nd or 8th, but didn't mention Murton, at all. He said things might change. But until/unless Hendry makes them change, Murton is the Jones complement. And that Jones/Murton platoon would work pretty well at the #5 spot.

 

Pie/Pagan seems to the current guys PinHendry is look at for CF, barring a transaction to be named later. Pin has never seen Pie, so I'm sure he's just going by whatever Hendry has told him. (Baker was also pretty gung-ho on Hill, Choi, Kelton, and Cruz, when all he knew about them was via Hendry-gush. Only after he saw them himself did things change.)

 

If Pie/Pagan are CF, there's a good chance that they'll deserve/need to bat 8th. That will maybe force Pin to consider Izturis for 2nd

 

Hendry obviously likes Izzy. Right or wrong, I assume he's hoping he'll get the best-of-Izturis. Which was: all-star, gold-glove, .288 batting averaege, and .040-.050 IsoD (each of last three years for that IsoD). If Izzy bats .280, and IsoD's at >0.040, you've got a .320+ OBP. If you combined that with a gold-glove SS, that wouldn't look so bat batting 2nd. It would look better batting 8th, but if Pie/Pagan are struggling, I can understand why a manager might prefer to keep the pressure reduced and hide them 8th.

 

I'm not advocating, or defending. I'm just trying to understand.

 

If Hendry wasn't so adament about talking up the need to find a LH OF bat, I'd think Murton/Jones was a good bet at this point.

 

I don't like calling the best of Izturis "all-star" caliber, when in fact Izturis's best season still sucked. Saying a guy was an all-star is just an arbitrary subjective characteristic that doesn't really describe his play. Give Izturis his 2005 stats (when he was an All Star), or his only full season stats (2004, when he had his best seasoon), and he still hurts you offensively. Izturis at his best was like Pierre last year, and Hendry didn't seem to have any problem getting rid of him.

 

I don't like the idea of hiding the young unproductive bat in the 8 hole, I'd much rather they stay in the 7 spot, without the pitcher behind them. Either way, the succubus that is Izturis doesn't have to jump all the way to the 2 hole just because the CF is hitting 8th. If that's where you want Pie/Pagan, then put Izturis 7th, to minimize the number of PA he can waste.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That's the difference between theory and practice. Watch decent hitters without lineup protection behind them. You take your chances with the basehit over the walk, throwing more fastballs (obviously not exclusively). Sounds stupid, but it's done all the time. If you have a pitcher who has better control of a different pitch, then you throw that, but most ML pitcher command the fastball best.

 

Actually, the theory is lineup protection, when the facts have indicated that it really makes no difference.

 

Where are these facts?

 

The best way to protect a hitter is to have a runner on in front of him.

 

Isn't that a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy though? A guy gets a hit and then the guy after them gets a hit(to simplify it into a hypothetical), is it the runner on base/the stretch or just the fact that the pitcher isn't good?

[TruffleShuffle]

I don't like calling the best of Izturis "all-star" caliber

 

yeah apparently "all-star caliber" means hitting .340 for the first two months of the year, thereby getting lots of votes since you've got the best batting average in the league, and then completely falling apart after that. In June of that year he had a .270 OPS (yes, OPS) but by then it was too late and everyone had voted for him. Also, it didn't hurt that shortstops in the NL were a joke.

[Outshined_One]

Quite frankly, I have a hard time buying into the problems of having a team that has too many RH/LH bats in a given lineup. As long as the guys you have on your team are capable of hitting righties and lefties on the mound, I don't think that really matters.

[UK1679666180]

Isn't that a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy though? A guy gets a hit and then the guy after them gets a hit(to simplify it into a hypothetical), is it the runner on base/the stretch or just the fact that the pitcher isn't good?

 

 

I'm going to use Murton, Lee, and Jones (assume Ramirez is on the DL just for effect) as the 2-3-4 hitters.

 

If Murton is on 1B, the odds of Lee being pitched around (espec. one with a good approach that Lee has) and more likely to BB are reduced b/c usually the lesser hitter (Jones) on deck will have a greater chance of driving in a run w/Murton in scoring position than Lee would of driving in Murton from 1B.

 

The pitcher isn't going to risk putting a runner into scoring position by working around the quality hitter to face a less productive hitter w/RISP.

[rawaction]

I don't like calling the best of Izturis "all-star" caliber

 

yeah apparently "all-star caliber" means hitting .340 for the first two months of the year, thereby getting lots of votes since you've got the best batting average in the league, and then completely falling apart after that. In June of that year he had a .270 OPS (yes, OPS) but by then it was too late and everyone had voted for him. Also, it didn't hurt that shortstops in the NL were a joke.

 

I am on record on this board of saying that Izturis' June of that year was the worst month a professional baseball player has ever had. I really have never seen anything like that from a player that go 90+ ABs in that month span.

[rawaction]

FWIW, CBSsportsline fantasy analysis of DeRosa says that if he hits between Soriano and Lee, he'll bat .300 and score 100 times.

 

That being said, CBS is often inaccurate.

[BigbadB]

If DeRosa hit .300, his OBP would probably be right around .360. I'd take that from the #2 hitter.

 

If Soriano could somehow be better than .340, Lee and Ramirez will be very happy hitters.

[Guest]

FWIW, CBSsportsline fantasy analysis of DeRosa says that if he hits between Soriano and Lee, he'll bat .300 and score 100 times.

 

That being said, CBS is often inaccurate.

 

and frequently somewhat insane.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If DeRosa hit .300, his OBP would probably be right around .360. I'd take that from the #2 hitter.

 

And Murton will be at 310/380.

[fromthestretch]

I don't like calling the best of Izturis "all-star" caliber

 

yeah apparently "all-star caliber" means hitting .340 for the first two months of the year, thereby getting lots of votes since you've got the best batting average in the league, and then completely falling apart after that. In June of that year he had a .270 OPS (yes, OPS) but by then it was too late and everyone had voted for him. Also, it didn't hurt that shortstops in the NL were a joke.

 

I am on record on this board of saying that Izturis' June of that year was the worst month a professional baseball player has ever had. I really have never seen anything like that from a player that go 90+ ABs in that month span.

 

Didn't Tony Clark have a stretch where he went like 7-for-100 when he was with the Tigers? I don't think it all happened in one month, but I remember he had a very lengthy slump similar to that.

[JGalt73]

Per the Baseball Musings lineup generator (and using Bill James' 2007 projections):

 

Best lineup (5.303 runs/g):

Murton

Lee

Derosa

Ramirez

Barrett

Soriano

Jones

Pitcher

Izturis

 

Izturis is at the bottom of every "best" setup.

 

Interestingly (sadly?), the soriano and izturis 1,2 punch peppers the worst possible lineups - granted, these include batting lee at the bottom of the order.

[KatJ]

I'm curious to know what Lou's lineup configurations were like with Seattle and Tampa Bay, but I don't know for sure where to find that (and I am too lazy anyway).

 

As to Seattle, with the exception of Ichiro's 2001 year, the rest of the lineup could be any mix whatsoever on any given day.

 

About a week or so ago I called the Matt Murton mushroom treatment, but I don't remember which thread.

[Tracer Bullet]

Per the Baseball Musings lineup generator (and using Bill James' 2007 projections):

 

Best lineup (5.303 runs/g):

Murton

Lee

Derosa

Ramirez

Barrett

Soriano

Jones

Pitcher

Izturis

 

Izturis is at the bottom of every "best" setup.

 

Interestingly (sadly?), the soriano and izturis 1,2 punch peppers the worst possible lineups - granted, these include batting lee at the bottom of the order.

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

[Soul]

Per the Baseball Musings lineup generator (and using Bill James' 2007 projections):

 

Best lineup (5.303 runs/g):

Murton

Lee

Derosa

Ramirez

Barrett

Soriano

Jones

Pitcher

Izturis

 

Izturis is at the bottom of every "best" setup.

 

Interestingly (sadly?), the soriano and izturis 1,2 punch peppers the worst possible lineups - granted, these include batting lee at the bottom of the order.

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

 

Hahaha, the generator puts Izzy below the pitcher.

 

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

[David]

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

 

I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year.

[Tracer Bullet]

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

 

I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year.

 

If James projects DeRosa keeping up last year's stats based on his switch from the AL to the mighty NLC, I guess I can understand that. I still don't want him hitting 3rd.

[hardcorecubfan]

What's that quote from?

 

That sure sounds like it's taken from Lou's comments during the winter meetings, but I could be wrong. I'm hoping that spring training will change Lou's mind on a few things...

My hope is that Hendry fails to acquire a LH compliment to Murton. That would make it much more likely that he'd hit in the #2 spot in the order as Lou would probably like a non-platoon player in that spot.

 

where is Matt anywhere on his radar screen. I see Lou as overlooking Murton. I hope you are right

[JGalt73]

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

 

I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year.

 

If James projects DeRosa keeping up last year's stats based on his switch from the AL to the mighty NLC, I guess I can understand that. I still don't want him hitting 3rd.

 

Bill James' DeRosa line: 444 AB, 10 HR, .273/.333./.408

[CubinNY]

 

DeRosa 3rd gives us the most RPG? I find that hard to believe. Maybe they're banking on another .360 obp rather than his career .330.

 

I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year.

 

If James projects DeRosa keeping up last year's stats based on his switch from the AL to the mighty NLC, I guess I can understand that. I still don't want him hitting 3rd.

 

Bill James' DeRosa line: 444 AB, 10 HR, .273/.333./.408

 

I'd take than line any day from DeRosa. However, Lee, Soriano and Aramis must come close to career averages.