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Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

His BABIP also decreased. That would explain the decline.

Posted (edited)
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

EDIT: The only other 3rd baseman to finish in the top five in OPS for the last three years is A-Rod.

Edited by CubinNY
Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

While I support the Cubs going up to Aramis's demands of 5/75, the Cubs offer of 5/70 would be paying him like one of the top 5 3rd baseman in baseball. In fact, it would be probably one of the top 2-3 salaries for that position in the league. So it's not like the Cubs aren't offering him a fair deal-but they do need to overpay him.

Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

You are incapable of discussion without insults. It's unbelievable.

 

OPS is generally regarded as the most important stat for a player, so I don't see how stating the fact that his declined three consecutive years is a crutch. It's a bloody basic observation on value.

 

I have no problem with paying him good money. But he wants top 10 in baseball money, and he has never been in the top 10 in production. At 5/75 he will be one of the most overpaid players in the league.

Posted

I agree. I think you need to go about as high as you are willing to go now. If they don't sign, then just tell them you are going to have to go forward with the assumption he's not coming back. Let it be known that Aramis's money might be used elsewhere, but don't just give a blanket take it or leave it. Tell them you'll listen if they come back with an offer they want the Cubs to match, but make it clear you aren't going to wait all winter to figure out what direction you're taking.

 

Well said. That's exactly the posture I'd take.

Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

You are incapable of discussion without insults. It's unbelievable.

 

OPS is generally regarded as the most important stat for a player, so I don't see how stating the fact that his declined three consecutive years is a crutch. It's a bloody basic observation on value.

 

I have no problem with paying him good money. But he wants top 10 in baseball money, and he has never been in the top 10 in production. At 5/75 he will be one of the most overpaid players in the league.

 

OPS+ is a better metric. And it indicates an increase from 2004 to 2005, and a dip in 2006. And again, he's 27. Not 33. He won't even be close to one of the most overpaid players in the league relative to his production.

Posted
If Aramis was 33 the declining OPS might matter, or if it was a significant decline it might matter.

 

His OPS+ though was 136, 137, 126 the past three years, not a real decline.

 

And like USS pointed out, the decline is almost entirely AVG based. His LD% has gone down some, but that's not exactly predictable.

Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

You are incapable of discussion without insults. It's unbelievable.

 

OPS is generally regarded as the most important stat for a player, so I don't see how stating the fact that his declined three consecutive years is a crutch. It's a bloody basic observation on value.

 

I have no problem with paying him good money. But he wants top 10 in baseball money, and he has never been in the top 10 in production. At 5/75 he will be one of the most overpaid players in the league.

 

 

Except for his decline isn't a real decline, as goony pointed out. And he is still in the prime of his career.

 

What you wrote was factually accurate but far from the truth. Not to mention misleading.

 

Aramis plays a premium position and is one of the best at his position both offensively and defensively, he should be a guy you build your team around.

Posted
That's a whole lot of money for a player with declining OPS every year for three straight years.

 

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole.

 

In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman

In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman.

 

He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball.

 

Pay him like one.

 

You are incapable of discussion without insults. It's unbelievable.

 

OPS is generally regarded as the most important stat for a player, so I don't see how stating the fact that his declined three consecutive years is a crutch. It's a bloody basic observation on value.

 

I have no problem with paying him good money. But he wants top 10 in baseball money, and he has never been in the top 10 in production. At 5/75 he will be one of the most overpaid players in the league.

 

In 1968 Carl Yastrzemski hit .301/.426/.495 for a .921 OPS. That ranked him #1 in BA, #1 in OBP, #4 in Slug, and #1 in OPS.

 

In 2005, Aramis had a .926 OPS.

 

I already know what you're gonna say. "The AL in 1968 was a ridiculous pitcher's league! You can't compare the two!"

 

Yastrzemski had a 195 OPS+, Aramis a 136.

 

Perhaps I'm being a bit over-the-top in this, but I was just trying to point out that you absolutely have to make adjustments year in and year out. The difference isn't nearly as huge between 2005-2006 as between 2005 and 1968, but there's still a difference. OPS+ adjusts for that.

Posted

Doesn't sound like this deal will happen this weekend.

 

Hendry said he has no plans to meet with Aramis Ramirez's agent, Paul Kinzer, at next week's general manager's meetings in Florida. He declined to discuss negotiations or speculation that he has offered Ramirez five years for between $70 million and $75 million.

 

Link.

Posted
Doesn't sound like this deal will happen this weekend.

 

Hendry said he has no plans to meet with Aramis Ramirez's agent, Paul Kinzer, at next week's general manager's meetings in Florida. He declined to discuss negotiations or speculation that he has offered Ramirez five years for between $70 million and $75 million.

 

Link.

 

Have fun in Anaheim Aramis.

 

Edit: Anyone want to buy a #16 jersey?

Posted

If Hendry won't budge over 15 per he is truly the most ignorant GM in sports.

 

Trumping Isiah.

 

Seriously overpay 3Mil per season for Aram.

 

Dump the JJ salary. Sign Drew at 14 season. Avoid paying 17 for Soriano.

 

You make your $$$ right there.

Posted
Edit: Anyone want to buy a #16 jersey?

 

If it's a nameless jersey, why don't you just wait to see who takes it next? I have a nameless 22 jersey. If Prior should leave at any point, I can claim it's a Mike Harkey jersey. Who knows, you might be the unknowing owner of a JD Drew jersey, or Dave Roberts. :shock: ;)

Posted
Doesn't sound like this deal will happen this weekend.

 

Hendry said he has no plans to meet with Aramis Ramirez's agent, Paul Kinzer, at next week's general manager's meetings in Florida. He declined to discuss negotiations or speculation that he has offered Ramirez five years for between $70 million and $75 million.

 

Link.

 

Hendry is an incompetent, idiotic, unqualified colossal failure of a general manager who has done less with more than any GM in Cub history. To say you have no plans to meet with the agent of the most important player you may or may not sign this winter is ignorant and foolish.

 

We will never win a world series with Jim Hendry as GM.

Posted (edited)
Doesn't sound like this deal will happen this weekend.

 

Hendry said he has no plans to meet with Aramis Ramirez's agent, Paul Kinzer, at next week's general manager's meetings in Florida. He declined to discuss negotiations or speculation that he has offered Ramirez five years for between $70 million and $75 million.

 

Link.

 

Hendry is an incompetent, idiotic, unqualified colossal failure of a general manager who has done less with more than any GM in Cub history. To say you have no plans to meet with the agent of the most important player you may or may not sign this winter is ignorant and foolish.

 

We will never win a world series with Jim Hendry as GM.

 

There are two sides to this problem. Hendry has every incentive in the world to get this done. Kinzer and ARam do not.

 

It all depends on how much character the player and agent have. I'm not too optimistic anymore, but Hendry shouldn't take the bulk of the blame on this one.

 

If anything, Hendry tends to think everyone is as good as their word. He certainly is a quality person.

 

edit: spelling

Edited by RichHillIsABeast
Posted
Doesn't sound like this deal will happen this weekend.

 

Hendry said he has no plans to meet with Aramis Ramirez's agent, Paul Kinzer, at next week's general manager's meetings in Florida. He declined to discuss negotiations or speculation that he has offered Ramirez five years for between $70 million and $75 million.

 

Link.

 

Hendry is an incompetent, idiotic, unqualified colossal failure of a general manager who has done less with more than any GM in Cub history. To say you have no plans to meet with the agent of the most important player you may or may not sign this winter is ignorant and foolish.

 

We will never win a world series with Jim Hendry as GM.

 

It's Sullivan.

Posted (edited)

 

There are two sides to this problem. Hendry has every incentive in the world to get this done. Kinzer and ARam do not.

 

It all depends on how much character the player and agent have. I'm not too optimistic anymore, but Hendry shouldn't take the bulk of the game on this one.

 

If anything, Hendry tends to think everyone is as good as their word. He certainly is a quality person.

 

 

Screw that noise. I'm sick and tired of people attempting to rationalize this. The very fact that his contract situation got to this point where he is going to hit the open market is the problem. Hendry didn't screw around with Derrek Lee. He signed him after a fluke career season a full year before he was FA eligible. You're telling me that Hendry deluded himself into actually believing that Aramis wasn't going to opt out? Look at that FA class. Everyone knew it was going to suck 18 months ago (which is why Hendry should have taken advantage of the Beltran FA class) and you're telling me that a 27 year old player coming into his prime with Aramis' ability wasn't going to opt out?

 

No way. You get that deal extended last winter. You tear it up and sign him long term so you don't go into November of 2006 virtually guaranteed to be losing your best offensive player.

 

This was poorly planned from the start. Allowing it to get to this point should be grounds for Hendry losing his job. We're going to lose our best offensive player for nothing because our GM is a good guy and took a player and his agent at their word that they "probably won't use the opt out clause".

 

I'll repeat: We're going to lose Aramis for nothing. We didn't deal him, we didn't extend him like we did with Derrek Lee, and now we'll get a stupid draft pick for a guy we either should have hitting .300 with 30 HR's and 110 RBI until 2011, or should have gotten top, blue chip prospects for this past July.

 

Give me a break. I'll take my chances with a soulless shark of a GM over the "good guy" who screws up an entire major league roster and farm system within 3 years.

 

Even if he signs him I'm not taking any of this back. If we're lucky enough to retain him, we'll have paid more than we would have a year ago, and Hendry will have spent valuable time dealing with this instead of fixing the rest of the mess he made. He's a bad GM. He's just bad. He shouldn't have a front office job. He should go back to scouting, or minor league development, but he should not be the Cub GM, and if we luck into a World Series, it will be in spite of the job he's done.

Edited by USSoccer
Posted
it's important to remember that when it came time for aramis to decide whether or not to opt out, it was basically just a matter of deciding whether or not he could get a contract better than 2/22. aramis could've broken a leg in july and done better than that.
Posted

 

There are two sides to this problem. Hendry has every incentive in the world to get this done. Kinzer and ARam do not.

 

It all depends on how much character the player and agent have. I'm not too optimistic anymore, but Hendry shouldn't take the bulk of the game on this one.

 

If anything, Hendry tends to think everyone is as good as their word. He certainly is a quality person.

 

 

Screw that noise. I'm sick and tired of people attempting to rationalize this. The very fact that his contract situation got to this point where he is going to hit the open market is the problem. Hendry didn't screw around with Derrek Lee. He signed him after a fluke career season a full year before he was FA eligible. You're telling me that Hendry deluded himself into actually believing that Aramis wasn't going to opt out? Look at that FA class. Everyone knew it was going to suck 18 months ago (which is why Hendry should have taken advantage of the Beltran FA class) and you're telling me that a 27 year old player coming into his prime with Aramis' ability wasn't going to opt out?

 

No way. You get that deal extended last winter. You tear it up and sign him long term so you don't go into November of 2006 virtually guaranteed to be losing your best offensive player.

 

This was poorly planned from the start. Allowing it to get to this point should be grounds for Hendry losing his job. We're going to lose our best offensive player for nothing because our GM is a good guy and took a player and his agent at their word that they "probably won't use the opt out clause".

 

I'll repeat: We're going to lose Aramis for nothing. We didn't deal him, we didn't extend him like we did with Derrek Lee, and now we'll get a stupid draft pick for a guy we either should have hitting .300 with 30 HR's and 110 RBI until 2011, or should have gotten top, blue chip prospects for this past July.

 

Give me a break. I'll take my chances with a soulless shark of a GM over the "good guy" who screws up an entire major league roster and farm system within 3 years.

 

Even if he signs him I'm not taking any of this back. If we're lucky enough to retain him, we'll have paid more than we would have a year ago, and Hendry will have spent valuable time dealing with this instead of fixing the rest of the mess he made. He's a bad GM. He's just bad. He shouldn't have a front office job. He should go back to scouting, or minor league development, but he should not be the Cub GM, and if we luck into a World Series, it will be in spite of the job he's done.

 

$$$ post.

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