CubFanPhilly

It's your thread. I find it interesting and appreciate the information you're providing. I agree with you that the $5 mil is not a 2012 expense, but as you stated the intent of the exercise is to discern whether Cubs management is counting deferred compensation against this year's payroll budget or last year's. I don't know if the Cubs build their budget based on the accounting treatment or the cash flows, but in my opinion either approach is equally plausible. I wouldn't draw any firm conclusions from a media report, but I wouldn't dismiss the idea either.

Not really. The 5 million is an expense of 2011, even though it is paid through payroll this year (Do a Google search on FASB or IRS and deferred compensation rules). Pena’s full salary is included in 2011 player’s expense, and included in the Cubs 2011 tax return. The 5 million dollar deferral becomes a liability at present value in 2011. The basic agreement also requires that any amount over 1 million be funded in a safe investment. But it’s a balance sheet item at this point. So even though it is correct that it will be paid through payroll in 2012; Bruce is incorrect saying “The $5 million will count against the Cubs' 2012 payrol”. Has management ever commented on how they construct their budget? If not, you're assuming GAAP determines the team's budget. It could just as well be cash flows.

It's hard to imagine payroll growing with that much leverage. The interest on $450 mil. alone will consume most of the free cashflows generated by the operation. Not good.

UPDATED 4/5: The total includes $8 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total would be the same for 2009 ($8M amortized - $1M each for Zambrano, Sori, Fukudome, Ramirez, Lilly, Dempster and $2M for Bradley vs. '09 signing bonues of $4M each for Dempster and Bradley). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC, FA 2011) 2B - Fontenot $0.43M (1 MiL option) SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options, Arb. Elig. 2010) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012, $2M buyout) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC, FA 2015) CF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC, FA 2012) RF - Bradley $7.0M (FA 2013, 2012 may become a club option based on games played, $2M buyout) IF - Miles $2.2M (FA 2011) OF/1B - Hoffpauir $0.4075M (2 MiL options) OF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA 2010) OF - Gathright $0.8M (Arb. Elig. 2010) C - K. Hill $0.475 (no MiL options) Bako $0.725m (FA 2010) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC, FA in 2013, Possible player option for 2013 depending on CY voting in 2012) S - Harden $7.0M (club option exercised, FA 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC, FA 2011) S - Marshall $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - Gregg $4.2M (FA 2010) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option, Arb. Elig. 2010) BP - Heilman $1.625M (2010 final Arb. yr.) BP - Vicaino $3.5M (club option in 2010, $0.5M buyout) BP - Guzman $0.4215M (no MiL options) BP - Cotts $1.1M (FA 2010) BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) Buy-outs/Cash in Trades/Released Players - $3.08M ($0.30m Blanco; $1.0M Marquis; $0.18 Bako; $1.6M Gaudin) COMMITTED: $137.49M (13 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - M. Atkins $0.4M (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4M (3 MiL options) S/BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013 / 2 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4M (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4M (1 MiL option) BP - Stevens $0.4M (3 MiL options) OF/1B/C - J. Fox $0.4M (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld $0.4M (2 MiL options) (35 on the current 40-man roster)

UPDATED 2/2: Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. The total includes $8 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total would be the same for 2009 ($8M amortized - $1M each for Zambrano, Sori, Fukudome, Ramirez, Lilly, Dempster and $2M for Bradley vs. '09 signing bonues of $4M each for Dempster and Bradley). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC, FA 2011) 2B - Fontenot $0.45M (1 MiL option) SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options, Arb. Elig. 2010) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012, $2M buyout) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC, FA 2015) CF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC, FA 2012) RF - Bradley $7.0M (FA 2013, 2012 may become a club option based on games played, $2M buyout) IF - Miles $2.2M (FA 2011) IF - ??? OF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA 2010) OF - Gathright $0.8M (Arb. Elig. 2010) C - Bako $0.725m (FA 2010) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC, FA in 2013, Possible player option for 2013 depending on CY voting in 2012) S - Harden $7.0M (club option exercised, FA 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC, FA 2011) S - Marshall $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Gregg $4.2M (FA 2010) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option, Arb. Elig. 2010) BP - Heilman $1.625M (2010 final Arb. yr.) BP - Vicaino $3.5M (club option in 2010, $0.5M buyout) BP - Guzman $0.45M (no MiL options) BP - Cotts $1.1M (FA 2010) BP - Gaudin $2.0M (2010 final Arb. yr.) Buy-outs/Cash in Trades - $1.30M ($0.30m Blanco; $1.0M Marquis) COMMITTED: $137.25M (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) No MiL Options/Rule 5 (to be rostered in ST, traded, exposed to waivers or released) OF - Snyder $0.4M (no MiL options) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options) BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - M. Atkins $0.4M (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4M (3 MiL options) S/BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013 / 2 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4M (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4M (1 MiL option) BP - Stevens $0.4M (3 MiL options) OF/1B - Hoffpauir $0.4M (2 MiL options) OF/1B/C - J. Fox $0.4M (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld $0.4M (2 MiL options) OF - Robnett $0.4M (3 MiL options) (39 on the current 40-man roster) NRIs IF - Blanco IF - Rivas IF - Scales IF - Barney IF/C - Clevenger C - Castillo (3 MiL options) C - M. Johnson OF - Dubois OF - Taguchi OF - Deeds P - Campunsano P - C. Fox P - Cashner P - Stanton P - Mathes P - Roquet P - Caridad P - M. Smith P - Waddell P - B. White P - Kadokura Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco (San Diego) BP - K. Wood (Cleveland) BP - Howry (San Francisco)

UPDATED 1/22: *Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. This total includes $6 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total is $2 mil. lower (-$6M/+$4M for Dempster). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC) 2B - Fontenot $0.45M SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC) CF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC) RF - Bradley $7.0M IF - Miles $2.2M IF/OF - ??? (Cedeno, Hoffpauir) OF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA in 2010) OF - Gathright $0.8M C - ??? (Bako, Blanco, K. Hill) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC) S - Harden $7.0M (team option exercised, FA in 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC) S - Marshall $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Gregg $4.2M BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013 / 2 MiL options) BP - Vicaino $3.5M (team option in 2010, $0.5M buyout) BP - Cotts $1.1M BP - Wuertz $1.2M BP - Gaudin $2.0M Buy-outs/Cash in Trades - $1.30M ($0.30m Blanco; $1.0M Marquis) COMMITTED: $137.45 (11 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) Arbitration Eligible / Arbitration-Contract Estimates (based on 2008 comparable players & service time) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) PAYROLL w/ Arb. Elg. Estimates: $138.05M to $138.65 (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) No MiL Options/Rule 5 (to be rostered in ST, traded, exposed to waivers or released) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) OF - Snyder $0.4M (no MiL options) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options) S - R. Hill $0.55M (no MiL options) BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - M. Atkins $0.4M (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4M (3 MiL options) S/BP - G. Olson $0.4M (1 MiL option) S/BP - Hart $0.4M (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - Guzman $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - M. Mateo $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4M (1 MiL option) BP - Stevens $0.4M (3 MiL options) OF/1B - Hoffpauir $0.4M (2 MiL options) OF/1B/C - J. Fox $0.4M (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld $0.4M (2 MiL options) (40-man roster is full) Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco (San Diego) BP - K. Wood (Cleveland) BP - Howry (San Francisco)

In terms of how the money is paid, it is safe to assume that - unless it is reported otherwise - that the entire signing bonus is paid upfront. That's what I do when I calculate payroll, because I think it's more reflective of cash flow, which I imagine is of primary interest to ownership. For the purposes of calculating luxury tax, MLB accounting spreads the signing bonus out across all of the guaranteed years of the contract (however that is defined). That's how CubFanPhilly does it. To each his own. I agree. The two ways to look at it are: cashflow (bonus taken in the first year because they are paid up front); and budget/luxury tax (bonus amortized over the life of the contract excluding option years). I suspect ownership looks at it from both perspectives, but cashflow is probably more important. The only reason I amortize the bonuses is that it fits better with what little the Cubs say in the media about their budget.

UPDATED 1/9: *Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. This total includes $6 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total is $2 mil. lower (-$6M/+$4M for Dempster). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC) 2B - Fontenot $0.45M SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC) CF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC) RF - Bradley $7.0M IF - Miles $2.2M IF/OF - ??? (Cedeno, Hoffpauir) OF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA in 2010) OF - Gathright $0.8M C - ??? (Bako, Blanco, K. Hill) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC) S - Harden $7.0M (team option exercised, FA in 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC) S - Marshall $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Vicaino $3.5M (team option in 2010, $0.5M buyout) BP - Cotts $1.1M BP - Gaudin $2.0M BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013 / 2 MiL options) BP - Guzman $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - ???? (Gregg, Wuertz, Patton, Hart, Ascanio) Buy-outs/Cash in Trades - $1.30M ($0.30m Blanco; $1.0M Marquis) COMMITTED: $132.45M (11 position players, 5 starters, 6 bullpen) Arbitration Eligible / Arbitration-Contract Estimates (based on 2008 comparable players & service time) BP - Gregg (2008 $2.5M; Arb. Est. $4.5-$6.0M) BP - Wuertz (2008 $0.86M; Arb. Est. $1.0-$1.4M) (no MiL options) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) PAYROLL w/ Arb. Elg. Estimates: $138.55M to $140.6M (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) No MiL Options/Rule 5 (to be rostered in ST, traded, exposed to waivers or released) BP - Wuertz (2008 $0.86M; Arb. Est. $1.0-$1.4M) (no MiL options) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) OF - Pie $0.4M (no MiL options) OF - Snyder $0.4M (no MiL options) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options) S - R. Hill $0.55M (no MiL options) BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - M. Atkins $0.4M (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4M (3 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4M (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4M (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4M (1 MiL option) BP - Stevens $0.4M (3 MiL options) OF/1B - Hoffpauir $0.4M (2 MiL options) OF/1B/C - J. Fox $0.4M (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld $0.4M (2 MiL options) (Current 40-man roster is full) Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco BP - K. Wood (Cleveland) BP - Howry (San Francisco)

Assume Bradley's deal isn't backloaded and the Marquis deal happens with Vizcaino remaining in the pen. Payroll stands at about $141 mil. before adding Peavy. New ownership would have to approve a budget of ~$150 mil. or Hendry would have to move more payroll in order to fit Peavy (Gaudin, Gregg, Vicaino?). 2010 payroll would be $148 mil. before settling Soto's first arbitration year, before resigning/replacing Harden's spot in the rotation, and without filling 5-6 spots on the bench and BP. I'm skeptical that Peavy is the direction Hendry is heading.

UPDATED 1/1: *Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. This total includes $6 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total is $2 mil. lower (-$6M/+$4M for Dempster). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC) 2B - Fontenot $0.45M SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC) CF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA in 2010) RF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC) IF - Miles $2.2M CF - Pie $0.45M (no MiL options) OF - Gathright $0.8M 1B/OF - Hoffpauir $0.45M (2 MiL options) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC) S - Harden $7.0M (team option exercised, FA in 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC) S - Marquis $9.88M (FA 2010) BP - Marshall $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Cotts $1.1M BP - Gaudin $2.0M BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013) BP - Guzman $0.45M (1 MiL option) Buy-outs - $0.3 (Blanco) COMMITTED: $131.73 (12 position players, 5 starters, 6 bullpen) Arbitration Eligible / Arbitration-Contract Estimates (based on 2008 comparable players & service time) BP - Gregg (2008 $2.5M; Arb. Est. $4.5-$6.0M) BP - Wuertz (2008 $0.86M; Arb. Est. $1.0-$1.4M) (no MiL options) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) PAYROLL w/ Arb. Elg. Estimates: $137.83M to $139.88 (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco ($3.0 club option declined/$0.3M buyout) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - R. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) S - M. Atkins $0.4 (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4 (3 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4 (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4 (1 MiL option) BP - Stevens $0.4 BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) OF/1B/C? - J. Fox (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld (2 MiL options) OF - Snyder (no MiL options) (39 players on the current 40-man)

5 yrs/$10 mil., plus a $2 mil. signing bonus amortized over 5 years. I've never seen a breakdown on his contract by year (just Googled it again). I just saw it listed as $1.6 mil. without any bonus factored in, so $1.3 mil. is certainly possible. CFP, for your files: http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=1455 Thanks. I'll edit my last post ($1.8M by my method).

5 yrs/$10 mil., plus a $2 mil. signing bonus amortized over 5 years. I've never seen a breakdown on his contract by year (just Googled it again). I just saw it listed as $1.6 mil. without any bonus factored in, so $1.3 mil. is certainly possible.

UPDATED 12/13: *Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. This total includes $6 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total is $2 mil. lower (-$6M/+$4M for Dempster). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC) 2B - DeRosa $5.5M (FA in 2010) SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC) CF - R. Johnson $3.00M (FA in 2010) RF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC) IF - Fontenot $0.45M (1 MiL option) CF - Pie $0.45M (no MiL options) 1B/OF - Hoffpauir $0.45M (2 MiL options) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC) S - Harden $7.0M (team option exercised, FA in 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC) S - Marquis $9.88M (FA 2010) BP - Marshall $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Cotts $1.1M BP - Gaudin $2.0M BP - Samardzija $1.8M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013) BP - Guzman $0.45M (1 MiL option) Buy-outs - $0.3 (Blanco) COMMITTED: $134.23 (11 position players, 5 starters, 6 bullpen) Arbitration Eligible / Arbitration-Contract Estimates (based on 2008 comparable players & service time) BP - Gregg (2008 $2.5M; Arb. Est. $4.5-$6.0M) BP - Wuertz (2008 $0.86M; Arb. Est. $1.0-$1.4M) (no MiL options) IF - Cedeno (2008 $0.45M; Arb. Est. $0.6-$0.75) (no MiL options) PAYROLL w/ Arb. Elg. Estimates: $140.3M to $142.4M (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco ($3.0 club option declined/$0.3M buyout) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - R. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) S - M. Atkins $0.4 (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4 (3 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4 (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4 (1 MiL option) BP - Patton $0.4 (Rule 5 pick) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) OF/1B/C? - J. Fox (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld (2 MiL options) OF - Snyder (no MiL options) (37 players on the current 40-man)

Yes, the reports have been as high as $150mm. Bruce M. is estimating $140-145mm.

I agree 100%. Do you think Kerry would oblige? If so, I'd much rather hold on to Pie, Gaudin, and Wood than sign an Abreu or Ibanez. Anyone think a deal could be made with the Padres that didn't include Pie? If so, even better.

Interesting. Those numbers are about $3-4MM under what I'd estimate, but it's hard to tell what their arbitration estimates/non-tender/trade plans are. $4MM thrown in with Marquis should make him very tradeable.

I can't see Gaudin non-tendered. He's 25 years old with experience both as a starter and a reliever. If he was non-tendered, he would be snapped up in 5 minutes. I would think Wuertz would be a better candidate for being traded since he was in Lou's doghouse last year. I think he's more likely to be traded than non-tendered. But when you're likely to be as much as $5M over budget, the $3M Gaudin's likely to get through arbitration is meaningful. My preference would be to see Gaudin and Marshall held and Cotts and/or Wuertz traded, but I doubt that's possible with a Peavy trade.

I think Marquis and Peavy are mutually exclusive. If the Cubs trade for Peavy I hope they can hold on to Marshall or Gaudin for that role.

And a good deal for Burnett. It fits with Dempster's deal (perceived as a discount).

Assuming the trade is something like Vitters, Pie, Cedeno, Veal, Gaudin (dealt or non-tendered), & Marquis (to a 3rd team), here's a guess at what payroll looks like: S - Zambrano $18.75M S - Peavy $8.0M S - Dempster $9.0M S - Lilly $13.0M S - Harden $7.0M BP - Gregg $5.0M (arb.) BP - Marmol $0.5M BP - Guzman $0.45M BP - Cotts $1.5M BP - Wuertz $1.3M BP/SWING - Marshall $0.5M BP/AAA - Samardzija $2.4M (Shark, Marshall, Marmol & Guzman would have options) C - Soto $0.5M 1B - Lee $13.0M 2B - DeRosa $5.5M SS - Theriot $0.5M 3B - Ramirez $16.65M LF - Soriano $17.0M CF - Fukudome/Johnson $12.5M RF - Ibanez or Abreu $7.0M-8.0M (obviously it would have to be a backloaded 3-4 yr deal), or whatever 3rd rate FA they can sign for this type of money. IF - Fontenot $0.45M IF - Rule V pick, Nate Spears, or someone coming back in Gaudin or Peavy trade? $0.45M 1B/OF - Hoffpauir $0.45M OF - Johnson $3.0M C - K. Hill $0.5M (or Blanco ~$1M) Cash thrown in with Marquis - ~$2.5M Buy-outs - $0.3 (Blanco) TOTAL: ~$148-149M Gaudin seems to be a lock to be gone if they trade for Peavy. ~$148M would be tied up in 2010 without replacing Harden, DeRosa, Gregg or Johnson. I have to imagine Harden would be gone.

UPDATED 12/4: *Assumes modest raises for pre-arb. players and pro-rates signing bonuses. The Tribune stated 2007 payroll was $120 mil. This comes within $2 mil. under these same assumptions. This total includes $6 mil. in signing bonuses. If signing bonuses are not pro-rated but included in the year signed, the total is $2 mil. lower (-$6M/+$4M for Dempster). Media has reported 2009 payroll to be around $140 mil. (with one report as high as $150 mil.). Under Contract C - Soto $0.5M (probable Super Two in 2010) 1B - Lee $13.0M (NTC) 2B - DeRosa $5.5M (FA in 2010) SS - Theriot $0.5M (2 MiL options) 3B - Ramirez $16.65M (NTC thru 2010, 10/5 rights after, player option 2011, club option 2012) LF - Soriano $17.0M (NTC) CF - Pie $0.45M (no MiL options) RF - Fukudome $12.5M (limited NTC) IF - Fontenot $0.45M (1 MiL option) IF - Cedeno $0.45M (no MiL options) 1B/OF - Hoffpauir $0.45M (2 MiL options) S - Zambrano $18.75 (NTC) S - Harden $7.0M (team option exercised, FA in 2010) S - Dempster $9.0M (player option 2012) S - Lilly $13.0M (limited NTC) S - Marquis $9.88M (FA 2010) BP - Marshall $0.45M (1 MiL option) BP - Marmol $0.5M (1 MiL option) BP - Samardzija $2.4M (NTC, club options 2012, 2013) BP - Guzman $0.45M (1 MiL option) Buy-outs - $0.3 (Blanco) COMMITTED: $129.18 (11 position players, 5 starters, 4 bullpen) Arbitration Eligible / Arbitration-Contract Estimates (based on 2008 comparable players & service time) CF - Johnson (2008 $1.3M; Arb. Est. $3.0-$4.0M) BP/S - Gaudin (2008 $1.78M; Arb. Est. $2.75-$4.0M ) (no MiLoptions) BP - Gregg (2008 $2.5M; Arb. Est. $4.5-$6.0M) BP - Cotts (2008 $0.8M; Arb. Est. $1.2-$2.0M) (no MiL options) BP - Wuertz (2008 $0.86M; Arb. Est. $1.1-$1.6M) (no MiL options) PAYROLL w/ Arb. Elg. Estimates: $141.7M to $146.5M (12 position players, 5 starters, 7 bullpen) Free Agents / Arbitration Declined for all A&B FAs BP - Wood BP - Lieber CF - Edmonds 1B/OF - Ward C - Blanco ($3.0 club option declined/$0.3M buyout) Others on the 40-Man (est. salaries if optioned to 25-Man) S - R. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) S - M. Atkins $0.4 (3 MiL options) S - J. Berg $0.4 (3 MiL options) S/BP - Hart $0.4 (2 MiL options) S/BP - Wells $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - M. Mateo $0.4 (3 MiL options) BP - Ascanio $0.4 (1 MiL option) C - K. Hill $0.55 (no MiL options, $0.48 in 2008) OF/1B/C? - J. Fox (1 MiL option) OF - Fuld (2 MiL options) OF - Snyder (no MiL options) (36 players on the current 40-man)

Root for anyone who doesn't have to borrow to acquire the team. Most owners run their franchises on a cash-neutral basis. Debt service crowds out potential payroll.

Lee + Marquis + a couple million of the 10-15 million likely remaining in a budget = Peavy + Teixeira I think it's more like $0-8 mil. left in the budget, and you'd see a trade of Lee, Marshall, Pie, Theriot, & Marquis (plus ~$4 mil. in cash). Soriano Fontenot /DeRosa Ramirez Soto Ibanez/DeRosa Fukudome/Johnson Greene Hoffpauir/Aurilia/DeRosa Peavy, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Harden Wuertz, Cotts, Guzman, Gaudin, Samardzija, Marmol, Gregg DeRosa, Johnson, Aurilia, Cedeno, & Blanco ~$143 mil. I'm skeptical of moving Marquis and Lee in the same deal. So it's probably more like Lee to a third team, Marshall, Pie & Hart/Veal/Hill to the Padres for Peavy.

I doubt Hoffpauir could come close to replacing Lee's production over a full season, but he might be a plausible stop gap - particularly if you can find a cheap RH platoon partner.

I'm not giving up, and I would hope Hendry wouldn't, either. I can appreciate a comment like "we can't afford Milton Bradley, or Bobby Abreu". But when a guy like Peavy is available, you make room in your budget, even if it means someone has to go. The rumors that have floated around was that the Cubs could get Dempster AND Peavy, and another one was the Cubs could get Dempster and Randy Johnson. Hendry was quoted directly as still having interest in Peavy, so I'm not going to take much stock in anything Muskat writes on the subject. Payroll stands at $129 mil. before arbitration for Gaudin, Gregg, Johnson, Cotts & Wertz. Those contracts probably push payroll over $140 mil. (before adding a LH bat). So, I think it's safe to say that acquiring Peavy means at least $8 mil. of payroll has to go (somewhere other than the Padres, of course). Marquis to another team with a couple mil. in cash thrown in? Lee, Lilly or Fukudome for the young pitching the Padres are after (assuming any of them would waive their NTCs)? DeRosa & Gaudin? Marquis seems the most feasible and attractive for the Cubs, but I don't think he's going to attract much interest until more of the SP market settles out. I think Hendry will continue to pursue Peavy, but it has to be a long shot at this point. We should also keep in mind that acquiring Peavy all but guarantees that Harden won't be resigned in 2010.