Fox Sports: Ramirez SIGNS WITH CUBS!

[USSoccer]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

[goonys evil twin]

Shouldn't the offense improve no matter what Lee's numbers are? By that I mean at his career norms. The guys we had taking his place were just awful. Lets not forget he made some serious adjustments prior to 2005 which was why he had such a good year.

 

But the offense stunk in 2005, when he was great, and we don't necessarily have a better all around offense with him.

 

It's not enough to just improve, the offense has to get much better. It doesn't matter that teams have gotten by with mediocre offenses, it still really hurts to be below average offensively, and the only way to overcome such a detriment is to have outstanding pitching. And we aren't guaranteed anything close to outstanding pitching.

[goonys evil twin]

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

You would be surprised if he repeats 2004 but don't expect him to repeat 2005? Or you wouldn't be surprised if he repeats 2004? I don't think he'll fall off that much, but I'm not sure he'll outproduce his 2nd best season, 2003.

[XZero771679666304]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My guess is Ramirez will get a 6/96 deal with limited no-trade protection. Hell, he might even get another opt-out clause.

[USSoccer]

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

You would be surprised if he repeats 2004 but don't expect him to repeat 2005? Or you wouldn't be surprised if he repeats 2004? I don't think he'll fall off that much, but I'm not sure he'll outproduce his 2nd best season, 2003.

 

I typed that poorly. I meant to say that I expect a line more similar to 2004 next season. I doubt he comes close to 2005's production.

[goonys evil twin]

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

The adjustments theory makes for a nice story, but guys are always making adjustments in baseball. Adjustments don't always hold over time, especially when a serious injury happens. It depends on how you look at his pre-2005 numbers. He wasn't all that good in 2004, but he was much more productive, in terms of OPS+ in 2002 and 2003. So, pre-2005 is a pretty wide range.

 

Since becoming a regular, Lee's OPS+ has been:

122

113

131

135

114

177

111

 

The worst case (barring injury) is probably the 110-115 range, the mid-range is probably 130-140, while the high end is 170-180.

[goonys evil twin]

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

You would be surprised if he repeats 2004 but don't expect him to repeat 2005? Or you wouldn't be surprised if he repeats 2004? I don't think he'll fall off that much, but I'm not sure he'll outproduce his 2nd best season, 2003.

 

I typed that poorly. I meant to say that I expect a line more similar to 2004 next season. I doubt he comes close to 2005's production.

 

If he repeats 2004, this offense will be in trouble. They need 2003 at the minimum.

[USSoccer]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

Wrist injuries can be tricky to come back from. Nomar never recovered from his.

[goonys evil twin]

My guess is Ramirez will get a 6/96 deal with limited no-trade protection. Hell, he might even get another opt-out clause.

 

I wouldn't have a problem with an opt-out after the 3rd or 4th year. By then, he'll be in his early 30's, and the Cubs will have already gotten his best years.

[rocket]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

Wrist injuries can be tricky to come back from. Nomar never recovered from his.

 

But Ortiz recovered from his beautifully.

 

still holding out hope

[XZero771679666304]

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

The adjustments theory makes for a nice story, but guys are always making adjustments in baseball. Adjustments don't always hold over time, especially when a serious injury happens. It depends on how you look at his pre-2005 numbers. He wasn't all that good in 2004, but he was much more productive, in terms of OPS+ in 2002 and 2003. So, pre-2005 is a pretty wide range.

 

Since becoming a regular, Lee's OPS+ has been:

122

113

131

135

114

177

111

 

The worst case (barring injury) is probably the 110-115 range, the mid-range is probably 130-140, while the high end is 170-180.

 

Taking park factors into account, Lee's 2004 was his least productive recent season, by far. He had good seasons in a very unforgiving ballpark in 2002 and 2003, a decent season in a fairly neutral park in 2004, and a stellar season in the same park in 2005. His adjustments may not hold, but even if they don't I think a regression to his 2004 numbers is unlikely.

 

I don't think a .900-.925 OPS is the least bit unrealistic.

[jtownie]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

Wrist injuries can be tricky to come back from. Nomar never recovered from his.

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons.

[USSoccer]

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

You would be surprised if he repeats 2004 but don't expect him to repeat 2005? Or you wouldn't be surprised if he repeats 2004? I don't think he'll fall off that much, but I'm not sure he'll outproduce his 2nd best season, 2003.

 

I typed that poorly. I meant to say that I expect a line more similar to 2004 next season. I doubt he comes close to 2005's production.

 

If he repeats 2004, this offense will be in trouble. They need 2003 at the minimum.

 

I don't have a ton of confidence in his ability to recover from the wrist injury to the point where he can get around on inside pitches. If he's even a split second slower, pitchers are going to hammer him with inside fastballs.

 

The fact that Lee will certainly regress from 2005 and end up somewhere between his 2003-4 numbers means that Hendry needs to make sure he retains Ramirez as well as make other moves to ensure that the offense improves.

[goonys evil twin]

His adjustments may not hold, but even if they don't I think a regression to his 2004 numbers is unlikely.

 

I don't think a .900-.925 OPS is the least bit unrealistic.

 

I agree, but even a 900-925 OPS is going to be a large decline from 2005, and will require a lot more improvements elsewhere to make the offense better than 2005/2006 overall.

 

I think a lot of people have been penciling in Lee circa 2005 in whatever lineup takes the field in 2007. And that's not realistic. Pretty much anything he does in 2007 will be better than 2006, but the offense sucked in 2005, even with him playing great. So any expected improvements for 2007 should take into account a non-special season out of Lee. This just makes the job of Hendry's offseason acquisitions that much more important.

[USSoccer]

 

Wrist injuries can be tricky to come back from. Nomar never recovered from his.

 

But Ortiz recovered from his beautifully.

 

still holding out hope

 

We're not so fortunate as to have the kind of luck that Boston had with Ortiz.

 

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons

.

 

Nomar's injury was more severe, I think, but Lee still missed 112 games from a broken wrist. That's a long time for a wrist injury. It wasn't a simple fracture, either.

Edited November 7, 2006 by USSoccer

[XZero771679666304]

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

You would be surprised if he repeats 2004 but don't expect him to repeat 2005? Or you wouldn't be surprised if he repeats 2004? I don't think he'll fall off that much, but I'm not sure he'll outproduce his 2nd best season, 2003.

 

I typed that poorly. I meant to say that I expect a line more similar to 2004 next season. I doubt he comes close to 2005's production.

 

If he repeats 2004, this offense will be in trouble. They need 2003 at the minimum.

 

I don't have a ton of confidence in his ability to recover from the wrist injury to the point where he can get around on inside pitches. If he's even a split second slower, pitchers are going to hammer him with inside fastballs.

 

The fact that Lee will certainly regress from 2005 and end up somewhere between his 2003-4 numbers means that Hendry needs to make sure he retains Ramirez as well as make other moves to ensure that the offense improves.

 

If Lee doesn't have Ramirez protecting him in the lineup, it will exacerbate his decline, as well. That is unless Hendry could replace Ramirez with a similar bat, which I doubt.

[goonys evil twin]

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons.

 

Even if he doesn't suffer as much as Nomar, the notion that the broken bones wouldn't affect Lee was already proven incorrect when he tried to come back this year. It had a much greater effect on his 2006 than many people were willing to assume, both in terms of time missed and how productive he'd be upon return. Nomar was only 28 when he returned, and seemingly still had some upside. Lee is already 31.

 

 

Anyway, I just think it's important to remember, when discussing Ramirez, that we can't just assume he's nothing more than the 2nd best hitter on the Cubs. He could easily be the best hitter on the team, as he has for 2 of the past 3 years. We can't dismiss Ramirez leaving by saying Lee was the true face of the franchise or franchise player. Lee isn't Pujols. He hung tough with Albert for one season, but he's not the rock solid stud anchoring the lineup that the Cubs need, this is why it's all the more important to have multiple very good hitters. And that means keeping Ramirez, getting Lee healthy and acquiring new guys. You can't just replace Ramirez with a new guy and count on enough improvement to make this team better.

 

Not that I'm saying anything new or anything.

[C.C.]

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons.

 

Even if he doesn't suffer as much as Nomar, the notion that the broken bones wouldn't affect Lee was already proven incorrect when he tried to come back this year. It had a much greater effect on his 2006 than many people were willing to assume, both in terms of time missed and how productive he'd be upon return. Nomar was only 28 when he returned, and seemingly still had some upside. Lee is already 31.

 

 

Anyway, I just think it's important to remember, when discussing Ramirez, that we can't just assume he's nothing more than the 2nd best hitter on the Cubs. He could easily be the best hitter on the team, as he has for 2 of the past 3 years. We can't dismiss Ramirez leaving by saying Lee was the true face of the franchise or franchise player. Lee isn't Pujols. He hung tough with Albert for one season, but he's not the rock solid stud anchoring the lineup that the Cubs need, this is why it's all the more important to have multiple very good hitters. And that means keeping Ramirez, getting Lee healthy and acquiring new guys. You can't just replace Ramirez with a new guy and count on enough improvement to make this team better.

 

Not that I'm saying anything new or anything.

 

No your not, but it's a nice reminder and well said.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't think Ramirez becomes the face of the Cubs if Lee has anything close to another 05 type season.

 

The odds of that happening are remote.

 

Yeah, no kidding. The Lee issue has really moved to the backburner in discussions, but going into last season, he wasn't a real good bet to repeat 2005. Now, a year older, after a terrible injury for a hitter that ruined an entire season (even though people maintained it was largely harmless and he'd recover quickly), we might be looking at a guy who puts up a sub 900 OPS in 2007. Quality numbers, but not superstar numbers. His OPS+ was 177 in 2005, the next highest number in his career was 135, at age 27. If he's much below his 2005 numbers, the acquisitions will have to be that much better, just to improve upon the weak 2005/2006 offense.

 

If Lee puts up his 2004 line of .278/.356/.504 next season I'd be somewhat suprised. His 2005 was so far out of line, and he's past the age where we can expect him to sustain that kind of production.

 

But his improvement was due to some adjustments, not a fluke. While he won't post 2005 type numbers again, I can't see him regressing to his pre-2005 numbers, at least not in the next year or two. I think a .290/.375/.550 line is quite realistic.

 

Adrian Beltre made some major adjustments in 2004. The key is to keep on top of those adjustments going forward and not revert back to old, easier habits. And, of course, there is concern over his wrist injury.

[USSoccer]

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons.

 

Even if he doesn't suffer as much as Nomar, the notion that the broken bones wouldn't affect Lee was already proven incorrect when he tried to come back this year. It had a much greater effect on his 2006 than many people were willing to assume, both in terms of time missed and how productive he'd be upon return. Nomar was only 28 when he returned, and seemingly still had some upside. Lee is already 31.

 

 

Anyway, I just think it's important to remember, when discussing Ramirez, that we can't just assume he's nothing more than the 2nd best hitter on the Cubs. He could easily be the best hitter on the team, as he has for 2 of the past 3 years. We can't dismiss Ramirez leaving by saying Lee was the true face of the franchise or franchise player. Lee isn't Pujols. He hung tough with Albert for one season, but he's not the rock solid stud anchoring the lineup that the Cubs need, this is why it's all the more important to have multiple very good hitters. And that means keeping Ramirez, getting Lee healthy and acquiring new guys. You can't just replace Ramirez with a new guy and count on enough improvement to make this team better.

 

Not that I'm saying anything new or anything.

 

Which is why the level of press venom last week was disconcerting. People in the media here are really overlooking how good Ramirez has been as a Cub, and my fear is that Hendry thinks he might be able to get away with letting Aramis walk if he can sign Soriano. Trouble is, it's a less than lateral move.

 

Aramis is literally the only FA this winter worth even close to "Beltran money". If he weren't our FA, we'd be all about signing him. The media here would be all about signing him. Hendry needs to do everything he can to make sure he stays, because as you said in another thread, Hendry's is probably incapable of being abole to compensate for Ramirez's loss.

[jtownie]

Didn't Nomar tear some tendons though? Lee broke bones and luckily didn't tear any tendons.

 

Even if he doesn't suffer as much as Nomar, the notion that the broken bones wouldn't affect Lee was already proven incorrect when he tried to come back this year. It had a much greater effect on his 2006 than many people were willing to assume, both in terms of time missed and how productive he'd be upon return. Nomar was only 28 when he returned, and seemingly still had some upside. Lee is already 31.

 

 

Anyway, I just think it's important to remember, when discussing Ramirez, that we can't just assume he's nothing more than the 2nd best hitter on the Cubs. He could easily be the best hitter on the team, as he has for 2 of the past 3 years. We can't dismiss Ramirez leaving by saying Lee was the true face of the franchise or franchise player. Lee isn't Pujols. He hung tough with Albert for one season, but he's not the rock solid stud anchoring the lineup that the Cubs need, this is why it's all the more important to have multiple very good hitters. And that means keeping Ramirez, getting Lee healthy and acquiring new guys. You can't just replace Ramirez with a new guy and count on enough improvement to make this team better.

 

Not that I'm saying anything new or anything.

 

I agree with you. My point was simply that Lee's injury being bones and not tendons gives him better probability of returning as a power-hitter. I'm not saying he's going to return to 2005 form or even be the best hitter on the team. I do believe Ramirez is the best hitter on the team. I just wanted to point out that Lee has a better chance of being completely healed for 2007 and not feel any effects with only broken bones than he would had he torn a tendon.

[Mark Priors Calves]

oh god, when aramis does resign his every miniscule fault is going to be magnified even moreso than it already is due to the huge amount of money he'll make.

 

the fans are gonna treat him like they did sammy and latroy.

Sammy put up godly numbers and was loved until the numbers stopped coming. Latroy? He deserved what he got. Ramirez hasn't really been a target of the boo birds more so than any other player the last few seasons. Let's see if his leg injuries continue to be a problem along with his hussle before he gets booed. I think a lot of peolpe on this board are over reactive to way the media portrays players.

 

you just wait. aramis is gonna sign for 13m a year or something and become the new scapegoat of the cubs. the media already hates his lack of hustle, they're gonna hate it more when he's the face of the franchise.

 

Ramirez had better not start slow like in 2006. He'll be ridden hard by the media and the fans, his season will be overshadowed regardless of what he does.

[Geech]

Wrist injuries can be tricky to come back from. Nomar never recovered from his.

 

Unless Will Carroll was misinformed, Lee's injury was an injury to the actual wrist joint. It was a broken arm, which is not nearly as severe.

[USSoccer]

2 more days to go until I officially melt down and freak out.

 

This deal needs to get done.