A Cubs-Royals Trade Rumor Involving Dempster

[HoopsCubs]

I thought I'd pass this rumor on to see what folks think. This comes from one of my sources on the East Coast, who has some in-roads with Cub officials. This is the guy, who told me 3 weeks before it happened last offseason that the Cubs were the odds-on favorite to sign Wade Miller, so he has some credibility, though he's been wrong more times than he's been right (which describes just about everybody in this business).

 

Here's what he outlined. He started by saying, "hey, remember when Hendry traded Hundley for Karros and Grudzielanek?" He said there are a lot of moving parts, but here's the gist of what he's heard:

 

(1) The Cubs and Wood will agree to a one-year incentive laden deal to be a reliever with a team option for 2008. This will make for a very crowded "top heavy" bullpen.

(2) The Cubs think either Bob Howry or Michael Wuertz can be the closer in 2007. When I asked about Wood, he said they think Kerry will start slow, but he could be a candidate by mid-season.

(3) While Scott Eyre is more marketable, the Cubs prefer to trade Ryan Dempster, who has 2 years and $10.5M left on his contract. They've heard the Kansas City Royals have interest since they had the worst bullpen in 2006, but need the Cubs to offset the salary either through a player or cash.

(4) Royals have determined that the Cubs must take back either Emil Brown or Reggie Sanders. Brown is arbitration eligible; Sanders is under contract in 2007 for $5M.

(5) If the Cubs select Brown, they have to give KC around $3M in cash for 2007 and $2.5M in cash for 2008 plus a good pitching prospect. If the Cubs select Sanders, they have to give KC $2.5M in cash for 2008 plus a middle infielder prospect.

(6) In either case, the Cubs are off the hook for the $2.5M cash in 2008 if the Royals trade Dempster or if he elects free agency after 2007, his right as a player traded during a multi-year deal.

(7) The Cubs would plan to use Brown or Sanders as a platoon in right for Jones, a good stick off the bench, a DH in AL parks and a spot starter in LF to give Murton a rest.

 

 

What do you make of this? A bit far fetched on the one hand, but the financial dots are well connected, on the other hand.

 

Hoops

[JeffH]

It sounds way too intricate for The Ridiculous Jim Hendry to comprehend, let alone piece together.

[Andy]

I like Emil Brown, but the thought of parting with another good pitching prospect? Eh.

 

I think Wood should get a chance to fight for the closer job immediately next year. In case anyone forgot, his ERA as a reliever in 2005 (with an arm that needed surgery) was something like 1.20.

[Post Count Padder]

I wouldn't mind Brown off the bench, but not of we have to give up a good pitching prospect, thoughI would like to know the definition of "good". Maybe we can convince then that Booby Brownlie or Luke Hagerty will come around.

 

As for Sanders, he's getting up there in age, and he's an injury risk. I'd just say no.

[Jazz]

I like this alot. the fact that hendry might want to platoon jones even after he had a semi-career year makes me happy.

[Balsa]

I think it's pretty interesting. Emil Brown gets on base at a decent clip, and would be a great platoon for Jones or spot starter for Murton.

[UMFan83]

Platoon? Has anyone looked at Brown's stats vs. Lefties?

 

.231/.316/.471

 

SLG is alright, but the BA and OBP are woeful

 

His 3 year splits tell a different story against lefties:

 

.313/.368/.538

 

I wonder why that is?

[USSoccer]

I think I'd faint if Hendry managed to trade Dempster without eating nearly all his contract.

 

I'd almost rather trade for Sanders. RH power bat off the bench, platoon partner with Jones, and we save a pitching prospect.

 

Howry or Wuertz closing through May until Wood is ready sounds fine. In fact this whole thing makes to much sense for it to happen.

[TXCubsFan]

I thought I'd pass this rumor on to see what folks think. This comes from one of my sources on the East Coast, who has some in-roads with Cub officials. This is the guy, who told me 3 weeks before it happened last offseason that the Cubs were the odds-on favorite to sign Wade Miller, so he has some credibility, though he's been wrong more times than he's been right (which describes just about everybody in this business).

 

Here's what he outlined. He started by saying, "hey, remember when Hendry traded Hundley for Karros and Grudzielanek?" He said there are a lot of moving parts, but here's the gist of what he's heard:

 

(1) The Cubs and Wood will agree to a one-year incentive laden deal to be a reliever with a team option for 2008. This will make for a very crowded "top heavy" bullpen.

(2) The Cubs think either Bob Howry or Michael Wuertz can be the closer in 2007. When I asked about Wood, he said they think Kerry will start slow, but he could be a candidate by mid-season.

(3) While Scott Eyre is more marketable, the Cubs prefer to trade Ryan Dempster, who has 2 years and $10.5M left on his contract. They've heard the Kansas City Royals have interest since they had the worst bullpen in 2006, but need the Cubs to offset the salary either through a player or cash.

(4) Royals have determined that the Cubs must take back either Emil Brown or Reggie Sanders. Brown is arbitration eligible; Sanders is under contract in 2007 for $5M.

(5) If the Cubs select Brown, they have to give KC around $3M in cash for 2007 and $2.5M in cash for 2008 plus a good pitching prospect. If the Cubs select Sanders, they have to give KC $2.5M in cash for 2008 plus a middle infielder prospect.

(6) In either case, the Cubs are off the hook for the $2.5M cash in 2008 if the Royals trade Dempster or if he elects free agency after 2007, his right as a player traded during a multi-year deal.

(7) The Cubs would plan to use Brown or Sanders as a platoon in right for Jones, a good stick off the bench, a DH in AL parks and a spot starter in LF to give Murton a rest.

 

 

What do you make of this? A bit far fetched on the one hand, but the financial dots are well connected, on the other hand.

 

Hoops

 

I like it. The Cubs have enough pitching PROSPECTS to trade. IMO, they should get one or two veteran "inning eaters", and have Guzman and Marshall (if not traded) start in AAA to get seasoned and get their act together the way Hill did this year.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Even Hendry can read splits. I think Dusty might have been the stumbling block with Jones

 

WUERTZ FOR CLOSER!!!! Whooohooo!!!! Where's TT? He'll be happy about that bit, lol.

 

I think the Royals became a good trade partner for us when Moore stepped in. Schuerholtz and Hendry love each other. It's only natural that a little bit of that rubbed off on Dayton Moore.

 

Think the Royals would take Cedeno as the MIF prospect? lmao

 

I'm sorry, but don't we need a platoon partner in RF that can actually hit lefties? Isn't that the whole point?

 

2006 versus LHP

 

Brown: .239/.316/.471

Jones: .229/.257/.420

Sanders: .268/.385/.443

 

Sanders isn't too bad vs. lefties, but Brown...meh, he mashes righties like Jones.

 

Hoops, do you think we'll keep Murton in LF? How high are the Cubs on him?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd prefer Sanders as a bench option.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

While this sounds ridiculous, far-fetched, and completely made up--I mean, how does ANYONE know what KC or the Cubs will do on September 29th unless they are the GM--I'll play along with the original poster for a second.

 

Dempster sucks. We don't need him, we don't want him, it was yet ANOTHER ill-advised bad contract on Jim Hendry's part.

 

The Royals are slowly improving. They will get there via young players. Baird tried to buy some time with middling, veteran, over the hill free agents in the $5MM/year range--hmm, sounds a lot like Jim Hendry's methods. The new GM would really like to clear out that deadwood salary. He'd give his left arm to be rid of Mike Sweeney and his huge money.

 

I could see the Cubs moving Dempster to a team like KC, only IF KC could realize significant budget relief as part of the deal. How are you going to do that with Dempster owed $10.5MM for 07 and 08?

 

If you're the Cubs, you'd have to take Sweeney to make it happen. Since we have no use for a decrepit DH, you'd have to ask yourself whether you think it will be easier to move Sweeney in a follow-on trade, or Dempster to a different team. Sweeney makes $11MM in 07, so the money is the same as for Dempster, but over one season instead of two.

 

Myself, I'd try to move Sweeney to someone like Detroit, Anaheim, Toronto or Baltimore, four teams that might be interested in a DH, but they won't take him at $11MM. You'd have to eat at LEAST half his money, and now we're back to square one--who's easier to move, Dempster if you eat $5MM of his money, or Sweeney if you eat $5MM of his? (Answer--Dempster).

 

So, I put no stock in this "rumor." Zero.

[Mizzou]

I think Dempster definitely needs to go. Who else will be looking for a closer this offseason? Cleveland, Detroit, LA, Cinci? Anyone else? I wonder if anyone would take Dempster and Jones, if we pay some cash.

[HoopsCubs]

Hoops, do you think we'll keep Murton in LF? How high are the Cubs on him?

 

Those are good questions, and I have asked several of my sources Murton-related questions in the last few weeks. The responses have been pretty nebulous. If I were to summarize, the consensus is that the Cubs like Matt a lot, but feel LF should be a power position, and thus would be open to trading him if a good deal came along that improved the slugging percentage of the club. Translation: not being shopped, but would prefer to trade him.

 

And that ticks me off because if I were GM, I would get out of the dark ages, and look to increase power at CF or SS before I dealt a hitter with so much promise a la Murton.

 

It's going to be wait-and-see, nevertheless I think it will be a better off-season than last off-season.

[JWCUB]

Hoops, do you think we'll keep Murton in LF? How high are the Cubs on him?

 

Those are good questions, and I have asked several of my sources Murton-related questions in the last few weeks. The responses have been pretty nebulous. If I were to summarize, the consensus is that the Cubs like Matt a lot, but feel LF should be a power position, and thus would be open to trading him if a good deal came along that improved the slugging percentage of the club. Translation: not being shopped, but would prefer to trade him.

 

And that ticks me off because if I were GM, I would get out of the dark ages, and look to increase power at CF or SS before I dealt a hitter with so much promise a la Murton.

 

It's going to be wait-and-see, nevertheless I think it will be a better off-season than last off-season.

 

Gut feeling Hoops, or do your sources indicate as such?

[Flames24Rulz]

I like all of this. Dempster to KC does make sense and adding Brown or Sanders as a bench player would be pretty significant, and it would give our bench some pop.

 

I think Howry can be a good closer...he certainly has shown much more than Dempster has this season.

 

Moving Eyre would be a good alternative as well, if we can't move Dempster.

[TXCubsFan]

Hoops, do you think we'll keep Murton in LF? How high are the Cubs on him?

 

Those are good questions, and I have asked several of my sources Murton-related questions in the last few weeks. The responses have been pretty nebulous. If I were to summarize, the consensus is that the Cubs like Matt a lot, but feel LF should be a power position, and thus would be open to trading him if a good deal came along that improved the slugging percentage of the club. Translation: not being shopped, but would prefer to trade him.

 

And that ticks me off because if I were GM, I would get out of the dark ages, and look to increase power at CF or SS before I dealt a hitter with so much promise a la Murton.

 

It's going to be wait-and-see, nevertheless I think it will be a better off-season than last off-season.

 

In all fairness, if the Cubs see Pie in CF in 2007 and see Harvey or Colvin in RF by the end of 2008 (or in Colvin in CF with Pie in RF), then a trade involving Murton might make sense, assuming the Cubs get fair value. The options for getting power in the SS might be limited and not cost-effective.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

To add SLG to the team, there ARE other options than dumping Murt. The easiest is to just write a check for Soriano. If Tejada is ever going to be traded, this will be the offseason that it happens. Adam Dunn has underperformed and is eminently tradeable. The Dodgers are not enamored with JD Drew. Gary Sheffield and Jim Edmonds are both old and broken down, but neither will be back with his current team. Pat Burrell is unloved in Philly. Carlos Lee is a FA. Vernon Wells has been talked about.

 

An interesting component of ALL those names other than Soriano and Burrell is that each is a proven OBP guy, too. I'm just sayin'.

[HoopsCubs]

To add SLG to the team, there ARE other options than dumping Murt. The easiest is to just write a check for Soriano. If Tejada is ever going to be traded, this will be the offseason that it happens. Adam Dunn has underperformed and is eminently tradeable. The Dodgers are not enamored with JD Drew. Gary Sheffield and Jim Edmonds are both old and broken down, but neither will be back with his current team. Pat Burrell is unloved in Philly. Carlos Lee is a FA. Vernon Wells has been talked about.

 

An interesting component of ALL those names other than Soriano and Burrell is that each is a proven OBP guy, too. I'm just sayin'.

 

That's a nice, quick summary of the free agents or trade candidates out there. In the end, my gut tells me that CLee will become a Cub, and Murton will be dealt along with a prospect to get a starter.

[Neuby]

Dempster has more vaule than Sanders or Brown. If he rebounds and is joined by a healthy Kerry Wood the Cubs bullpen could be huge strength next year. If Dempster struggles through Spring training you have the option of having him return as a starter or shopping him at the deadline. Brown and Sanders both make overpriced spare parts. If he struggles as the closer next season he can fill the long man role.

[Backtobanks]

To add SLG to the team, there ARE other options than dumping Murt. The easiest is to just write a check for Soriano. If Tejada is ever going to be traded, this will be the offseason that it happens. Adam Dunn has underperformed and is eminently tradeable. The Dodgers are not enamored with JD Drew. Gary Sheffield and Jim Edmonds are both old and broken down, but neither will be back with his current team. Pat Burrell is unloved in Philly. Carlos Lee is a FA. Vernon Wells has been talked about.

 

An interesting component of ALL those names other than Soriano and Burrell is that each is a proven OBP guy, too. I'm just sayin'.

 

That's a nice, quick summary of the free agents or trade candidates out there. In the end, my gut tells me that CLee will become a Cub, and Murton will be dealt along with a prospect to get a starter.

 

I think Hendry and a lot of GMs will think long and hard about CLee and his stats at the end of the year. I'm hoping Hendry goes the FA route to get Schmidt and uses his young players to get an impact bat (Tejada or Andruw Jones). I think dumping Dempster is a must.

[craig]

I think the KC rumor is too detailed and specific to seem realistic. To suggest Dempster/KC as a possibility, with perhaps interest in Sanders or Brown, and with some cash changing hands, that seems very reasonable. But the details about dollars, that seems beyond the pale when the season isn't even over yet.

 

That said, the concept of trading Dempster, a chunk of money, and a good prospect for Brown makes good sense. I don't know much about Brown; can he throw the ball from RF? He's been a pretty good hitter these last couple of seasons, .280+ and .800+ OPS each time, good OBP. I think adding a cat like that as a 4th outfielder makes tons and tons of sense, so Jones can platoon. Don't know how good he is, but I know Brown used to play some center for Pittsburgh. Perhaps he might also back up Pierre, or serve as a bridge to Pie. If Pie looks great and wins the job quickly, Brown can platoon and be a fine 4th outfielder. If Pie spends another full year in minors, Brown might be quite a good bat for a CF. Just thinking.

 

In presenting those two deals, they come across as kind of equal. But to me, Brown is tons more desirable than ancient Sanders. Obviously the money would factor in, but I'd think you'd need to be giving a much better prospect for Brown than Sanders.

 

The rumor had "middle infielder", in Sanders case. We've got three: Cedeno, Theriot, and Patterson. Had "pitching prospect" for Brown. Given that Brown is a superior value to Sanders, if taken at face value, that "pitching prospect" would have to be a very good one, presumably more valuable than any of those three middle infielders. I suppose it would need to come somewhere from the pool of Guzman, Gallagher, Marshall, and Marmol. Mateo, Aardsma, Novoa not good enough.

 

Interesting to think about, at any rate.

[NCCubFan]

Assuming Pierre leaves, as a stopgap, how about Jones in center and Sanders in right until Pie is ready? Then, if Pierre is ready by the middle of next season, Jones could move back to right and Sanders becomes a weapon off the bench.

[mhuber92211]

 

Dempster sucks. We don't need him, we don't want him, it was yet ANOTHER ill-advised bad contract on Jim Hendry's part.

 

 

This is actually an untrue statement. at the time the Dempster contract was perceived as a bargain, especially compared to other closers on the market and what Farnsworth got. What really sucks is that Dempster had to throw 45 pitches in 3 innings in Houston during the 18 inning game. This was after pitching in 3 straight games IIRC. From then on he was flat. It wouldn't suprise me to learn that he wasn't feeling 100% since that point.

 

If thats the case then Hendry is not at fault and the contract is not ill advised.

[Guest]

In presenting those two deals, they come across as kind of equal. But to me, Brown is tons more desirable than ancient Sanders.

Brown isn't exactly a kid himself; he'll be 32 at the start of next season and is a few months older than JJ. I don't think I'd give up much in the way of prospects to get either one of them unless we were freeing up a lot of salary space (read: pretty much Dempster's entire contract) for use on someone who will actually make the team appreciably better in 2007 and beyond. A couple million here or there isn't going to provide that kind of room, as we all know the manner in which Hendry likes to spend his spare millions.