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[XZero771679666304]

I don't think so. Maddux strikes me as the sort of guy who knows what he's worth and wants to paid such. That's not to say he's greedy, just that he wants to be paid fairly. Right now his current salary is pretty close to what pitchers of his ability are getting paid, so I don't see him taking that much of a paycut just to stick around.

 

Offer him the money, and If he takes it, he stays, and if he doesn't, he goes. That's all I am saying. Personally, I am not sure he would leave at this point in his career.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If Maddux proves that this start is not a fluke, I'd offer him a one year deal in the 6-8 million range. If he accepts, great if not oh well. Knowing how Maddux and Boras work, he won't accept it.

 

You cannot, under any circumstances, offer him arbitration. With the way the process works, he is bound to make 12-13 million in that process. Considering Maddux's performance from 2003-2005, you cannot tie that much money in him.

 

While it would be nice to get compensation if he leaves or to be able to continue negotiating until early January, my guess is Maddux would accept the offer of arbitration. He's comfortable in Chicago and knows he could make a good 10-15 million on a one year deal. At 41, he's not likely to get any more than that on the open market. In fact, I'm sure Boras would be salivating over the possibility that the Cubs offer arbitration.

[BeerHere]

No arby, that's what burned Atl a couple years ago. Assuming he pitches well enough to justify it, 2 years at 9-10mil per is my best offer. Take it or leave it.

[badgercub]

There are a lot of factors that will go into it. How will Wade Miller look when he gets back? Are they going to keep Wood? Is Guzman Healthy? Can Prior avoid another freak accident/injury? How well did guys like Marshall, Hill, Ryu etc.. pitch at Iowa? are they ready? Just to early to tell.

[Andy]

Don't bring Maddux back.

I agree. It's a nice story that Greg is pitching well at 40 and all and I know we all would like to see him retire a Cub, but that's no reason to tie up a tenth of the payroll for him, and it would take about that much to keep him around. If he really wants to keep pitching as he says he does, then he'll go to another team to do it.

[srbin84]

These projections are based on my predictions plus an unexpected great season by Maddux and none of the AAA SP's emerge as a potential top starter. What do we do if something like the following unfolds:

 

Maddux 34 GS 21-9 2.90 ERA

Zambrano 34 GS 16-8 3.20 ERA

Wood 26 GS 14-5 3.30 ERA

Miller 24 GS 12-8 3.80 ERA

Williams 22 GS 8-9 4.00 ERA

Prior 12 GS 6-5 3.40 ERA

[jkrapfl]

These projections are based on my predictions plus an unexpected great season by Maddux and none of the AAA SP's emerge as a potential top starter. What do we do if something like the following unfolds:

 

Maddux 34 GS 21-9 2.90 ERA

Zambrano 34 GS 16-8 3.20 ERA

Wood 26 GS 14-5 3.30 ERA

Miller 24 GS 12-8 3.80 ERA

Williams 22 GS 8-9 4.00 ERA

Prior 12 GS 6-5 3.40 ERA

 

I would guess that we root for the Cubs in the playoffs.

[Backtobanks]

I started this discussion, but I suppose the same questions could be asked of Wood. What if he comes back healthy and wins 14-15 games, looks like his former overpowering self, and leads the Cubs to the playoffs. Do the Cubs offer him a contract or let him go?

[imb]

it's been three whole games guys. Granted, he's pitched unbelieveably well, but he still has 30 starts left.

[srbin84]

The only way we are going to get top 3 SP in the offseason is via trade unless we get Zito. We'll probably have to resign 2 of Maddux, Wood, Miller.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I started this discussion, but I suppose the same questions could be asked of Wood. What if he comes back healthy and wins 14-15 games, looks like his former overpowering self, and leads the Cubs to the playoffs. Do the Cubs offer him a contract or let him go?

 

With Wood, it depends on how good he looks. We have the option on him, so there's less risk..even though that option is very pricey it does carry with it cost certainty.

 

My guess is if Wood returns and pitches as he did in 2003 with no other health concerns, his option will be picked up. If there's any problems with him at all, the option will not be.

[rawaction]

No matter how good Maddux is this year (assuming he doesn't continue to pitch 1 ERA baseball), the Cubs shouldn't get into the practice of signing 41 year old pitchers to high paying contracts. It would nice if Maddux is coming back to have him finish his career as a Cub, but the Cubs already signed an old Maddux for basically sentimental reasons.

 

As for Wood, if he pitches well....I think the Cubs pick up his option but negotiate a 3-year deal with him lowering his 2007 salary, with a huge option and buyout to make up for the salary difference.

 

If he doesn't pitch well, he's gone. If he's healthy, though, no reason not to expect him to pitch well.

[Backtobanks]

The only way we are going to get top 3 SP in the offseason is via trade unless we get Zito. We'll probably have to resign 2 of Maddux, Wood, Miller.

 

Zito just doesn't excite me. Instead of overpaying Zito, I think the Cubs have many in-house options that I would try first.

[YearofDaCubs]

Maddux is off to a great start, but he is also 40 and I don't think it would be wise to give him anything more than 1 year if that.

[soccer10k]

If he continues the season he is having, just give him what he wants. This team has wasted more money for less than Greg Maddux.

 

Agreed. We did give Jacque a $16 mil contract. I think if Maddux gives us a hometown discount we should resign him. Like a couple other people said, 1 yr guaranteed with an option for a second year sounds good to me.

[NCCubFan]

it's been three whole games guys. Granted, he's pitched unbelieveably well, but he still has 30 starts left.

True, but considering that for the past three years his pattern has been to struggle in the first half of the season and then pitch well after the All-Star break, three great starts to begin the season is enough to say that this season is different from the last few. It doesn't necessarily mean that he's all the way back to his peak Cy Young level, but I think it does mean he will at least have a better season that the past few. One early great start could have been a fluke; I don't think three in a row is.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

[srbin84]

If he continues the season he is having, just give him what he wants. This team has wasted more money for less than Greg Maddux.

 

Agreed. We did give Jacque a $16 mil contract. I think if Maddux gives us a hometown discount we should resign him. Like a couple other people said, 1 yr guaranteed with an option for a second year sounds good to me.

 

I wouldn't have a problem with another innings option.

[srbin84]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

 

What did he do in the starts before April 17? Nobody is saying Maddux hasn't had 3 good starts in a row for us. We're just saying it is different when it is the first 3.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

 

What did he do in the starts before April 17? Nobody is saying Maddux hasn't had 3 good starts in a row for us. We're just saying it is different when it is the first 3.

 

The point is that Maddux isn't a stranger to having several good outings early in the season, whether it's the first 3, or the 3rd thru 5th, or the 4th thru 6th.

 

He did the same thing in '04 too.

 

April 23: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K

April 28: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K

May 3: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K

 

3 start total: 21 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.67 K/BB

[srbin84]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

 

What did he do in the starts before April 17? Nobody is saying Maddux hasn't had 3 good starts in a row for us. We're just saying it is different when it is the first 3.

 

The point is that Maddux isn't a stranger to having several good outings early in the season, whether it's the first 3, or the 3rd thru 5th, or the 4th thru 6th.

 

He did the same thing in '04 too.

 

April 23: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K

April 28: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K

May 3: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K

 

3 start total: 21 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.67 K/BB

 

Well, if his conditioning program has made only the difference that his first 3 are great instead of bad and everything else is the same, that changes his overall season numbers dramitcally.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

 

What did he do in the starts before April 17? Nobody is saying Maddux hasn't had 3 good starts in a row for us. We're just saying it is different when it is the first 3.

 

The point is that Maddux isn't a stranger to having several good outings early in the season, whether it's the first 3, or the 3rd thru 5th, or the 4th thru 6th.

 

He did the same thing in '04 too.

 

April 23: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K

April 28: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K

May 3: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K

 

3 start total: 21 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.67 K/BB

 

Well, if his conditioning program has made only the difference that his first 3 are great instead of bad and everything else is the same, that changes his overall season numbers dramitcally.

 

Maddux last year:

 

4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.78 K/BB

 

Maddux if you replace the first 3 starts last year with this year's first 3 starts:

 

3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.68 K/BB

 

It doesn't have an extreme effect.

[srbin84]

April 17, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K

April 23, 2005: 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K

April 29, 2005: 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K

 

3 start total: 20 IP, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5 K/BB

 

2006 total: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB

 

What did he do in the starts before April 17? Nobody is saying Maddux hasn't had 3 good starts in a row for us. We're just saying it is different when it is the first 3.

 

The point is that Maddux isn't a stranger to having several good outings early in the season, whether it's the first 3, or the 3rd thru 5th, or the 4th thru 6th.

 

He did the same thing in '04 too.

 

April 23: 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K

April 28: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K

May 3: 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K

 

3 start total: 21 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 5.67 K/BB

 

Well, if his conditioning program has made only the difference that his first 3 are great instead of bad and everything else is the same, that changes his overall season numbers dramitcally.

 

Maddux last year:

 

4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.78 K/BB

 

Maddux if you replace the first 3 starts last year with this year's first 3 starts:

 

3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.68 K/BB

 

It doesn't have an extreme effect.

 

True, but it makes him 18-10 in 04 and 16-13 last year. It would have put the Cubs 1 game behind the Astros at the end of 04. Being 2 games closer the whole season in 04 makes me think we would have won the wild card.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maddux last year:

 

4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.78 K/BB

 

Maddux if you replace the first 3 starts last year with this year's first 3 starts:

 

3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.68 K/BB

 

It doesn't have an extreme effect.

 

True, but it makes him 18-10 in 04 and 16-13 last year. It would have put the Cubs 1 game behind the Astros at the end of 04. Being 2 games closer the whole season in 04 makes me think we would have won the wild card.

 

W-L is worthless, you can't assume our record would change, or that just being closer would somehow allow us to overtake somebody.

[CubinNY]

Maddux will want to get paid what he is worth (or what he thinks he's worth). If he has a good/great season he won't be giving any hometown discounts, especially if the Cubs go far in the playoffs.

 

The questions are:

 

1. Do the Cubs have a guy or guys to replace him in the rotation?

2. How much money do the Cubs have to spend this offseason?

3. Are there any quality free agent pitchers?

4 Can the Cubs trade for a quality starter?

 

IMO, in order for Maddux to come back the answers to question 1, 3 and 4 will have to be a resounding no. And the anwer to question two should be "a lot of money". If not, I don't think he comes back.

 

I don't think Wood will be resigned unless he comes back healthy and performs really well.

 

Wood will make a fortune of the free agent market this year.