Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Bertz]

The team is $100M under last year's payroll right now.  So even if they want to stay under the LT, and even if the LT doesn't move at all in the new CBA, there's like $70M to spend.

The absolute floor for this offseason is something like bringing back Gausman, Peterson, Happ, and Rea.

[chibears55]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm seriously beginning to talk myself into the Cubs being active players with Japanese postings this offseason, and my thought process for this oddly stems from the 2016 team.  Entering 2016, the Cubs signed John Lackey and Jason Heyward, both of whom were key members of the 2016 team for obvious reasons, but, that resulted in the Cubs forfeiting their 1st and 2nd round picks with the Cubs' 2016 draft making a firm argument for the worst draft the Cubs have ever had.  Seriously, go look it up.  I know @Jason Ross will probably correct me on this, but I don't think the Cubs have forfeited a first round pick since then, and I believe every draft since 2016 has featured at least one Cubs second round pick.

While the Cubs had other issues after the 2016 draft, it's clear that they recognized how much damage that draft did to the farm since they have not been particularly gung-ho on signing big ticket free agents since then.  2016 wasn't a world-beater draft, but it still saw guys like Alonso and Bichette popped in the 2nd round.

The more I read about them, the more guys like Sato, Taira, and Itoh make sense for this team, both in terms of fits and because there is zero draft penalty associated with picking them up.  Granted, the Cubs won't be the only team vying for their services, but if, say, the Cubs retain Seiya and Happ turns down the QO and leaves, going from Happ to Sato shouldn't be nearly as rough as, say, the dropoff from Happ to Conforto.

Im hoping they consider going hard after  Taira, or Itoh for the rotation.

Sato would be a nice big power bat even as DH, in middle of order between Bregman and Suzuki if they bring Suzuki back.

3-6 Bregman Sato Suzuki Busch lol

 

[JunkyardWalrus]

I'd let KA have a couple months in LF-RF before spending 20% of the budget on a declining Happ and noodle arm. 

[Jason Ross]

46 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm seriously beginning to talk myself into the Cubs being active players with Japanese postings this offseason, and my thought process for this oddly stems from the 2016 team.  Entering 2016, the Cubs signed John Lackey and Jason Heyward, both of whom were key members of the 2016 team for obvious reasons, but, that resulted in the Cubs forfeiting their 1st and 2nd round picks with the Cubs' 2016 draft making a firm argument for the worst draft the Cubs have ever had.  Seriously, go look it up.  I know @Jason Ross will probably correct me on this, but I don't think the Cubs have forfeited a first round pick since then, and I believe every draft since 2016 has featured at least one Cubs second round pick.

While the Cubs had other issues after the 2016 draft, it's clear that they recognized how much damage that draft did to the farm since they have not been particularly gung-ho on signing big ticket free agents since then.  2016 wasn't a world-beater draft, but it still saw guys like Alonso and Bichette popped in the 2nd round.

The more I read about them, the more guys like Sato, Taira, and Itoh make sense for this team, both in terms of fits and because there is zero draft penalty associated with picking them up.  Granted, the Cubs won't be the only team vying for their services, but if, say, the Cubs retain Seiya and Happ turns down the QO and leaves, going from Happ to Sato shouldn't be nearly as rough as, say, the dropoff from Happ to Conforto.

I've looked into Sato because my initial thought was that they could be in on him. But the more I've dug into him, I just don't see him as a profile fit for the team. He's an aggressive swinger. Beyond aggressive. He swings very often, swinging at almost 60% of all breaking balls he saw in 2026. In terms of just pure swing # he would have swung at more breaking balls than almost every hitter in MLB (10 had more swings, but all saw at least 150+ more breaking balls). Approach is tweakable, but that...is a bad flag. 

He also showed significant whiff on fastballs. His 31.8% whiff on fastballs would put him fourth most in the MLB and we know NPB fastball's are well below MLB fastballs. 

His bat has a lot of the same red flag Murakami had, and while Murakami has had a successful year in 2026. I'm not convinced he won't have a short shelf life (like Joey Gallo). And unlike Murakami while his batted ball data is very good, it's not nearly as elite. 

When you wrap it all up, he's just not very "Cub" when it comes to the profile. He may find success, but I think it's a risky profile and doesn't fit neatly into the box of what the Cubs have looked for. It also doesn't fit neatly into the box of "typical things successful NPB to MLB hitters do" either. 

Kaima Taira however...while he has some flags I think he fits need and profile despite some of his red flags...

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I'd let KA have a couple months in LF-RF before spending 20% of the budget on a declining Happ and noodle arm. 

For whatever we feel about Ian Happ, Happ was still a very productive hitter against RHP. He graded out as a +10 DRS and a +2 OAA. His "noodle arm" was in the 96th percentile last year in over all value and 49th percentile in strength. 

On the flip side, the Cubs have declined to play Kevin Alcantara outside of "sparingly" time and time again. I don't think it's without reason; they were far more willing to let Matt Shaw transition from 3b to RF, as an example. I've long thought that Alcantara was probably underrated by fans, but the organization, which has generally done a good job self-evaluating their young position players has declined to use him. 

I think we're both underrateding Ian Happ here and over valuing Alcantara. I wouldn't pay Happ long term money like an every day player and if that's his price tag. I'm with you on declining it. If he's willing to rebuild his value for a year as a more "platoon"-ish option, I'm in. Regardless, there's no way I'm turning over a COF to Alcantara right now and I don't think the Cubs have any intention of it right now, either. 

I do think Alcantara as a platoon option is fair. He might even work with Ian Happ. KA is currently playing winter ball and the team he's playing for has an open space in CF: he's probably got the inside track to start. Should be an interesting offseason for him.

[Outshined_One]

27 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

I'd let KA have a couple months in LF-RF before spending 20% of the budget on a declining Happ and noodle arm. 

I feel like KA would work best as a secondary option rather than a primary.  I'd be glad having him for specific matchups, giving guys off days, and his ability to man all three OF spots, but I feel like things *should* have clicked for him by now.  I know, I know, he'll be 24 next season and prospect fatigue is very real with him, but I am way more optimistic about Kane Kepley being a starting OF in 2028 than I am with KA.

As much as people might not like it, Happ ticks most every box this FO values: intangibles, versatility as a switch hitter, reasonably productive, likely to give a hometown discount, etc.

[muntjack]

I feel like the versatility as a switch hitter thing is no longer part of the equation.  I strongly believe that the org knows he's a platoon bat now.  

[Outshined_One]

35 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

When you wrap it all up, he's just not very "Cub" when it comes to the profile. He may find success, but I think it's a risky profile and doesn't fit neatly into the box of what the Cubs have looked for. It also doesn't fit neatly into the box of "typical things successful NPB to MLB hitters do" either. 

On the one hand, I get it from a hitting standpoint, but on the other hand, this OF market is brutal for the Cubs, Sato seems likely to end up with a short term Murakami-like deal (2/$34m), and Sato offers positional versatility as a 3B/OF.

It's admittedly a bit of a desperation play on my part, because some of my feelings on Sato admittedly come from a place of dread of the alternative if Happ and/or Seiya leave.  I've made my POV on their internal options known in this thread, and I do not get any positive feelings when I look at the other OF options likely to be available, either because I don't think they're realistic (Arozarena), they're a massive risk (Duran), and/or they'd require trade resources better used to acquire pitching (Kwan).

Blah.

[Bertz]

I'm really curious if the team would sign Taira given his body type.  The team has really leaned into height and extension and athleticism as the years have gone on.  Taira looks like Gotenks when the boys horsefeathersed up the fusion dance.  But hey we've signed Shota and Stroman in the past five years, and we know they LOVE weird approach angles.

Sato will likely find someone willing to let him stay on the dirt and Itoh's basically another Sugano, so I doubt either is going to end up here.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Wasn't KA playing 1B at the end of the year? I wonder what that was about 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Wasn't KA playing 1B at the end of the year? I wonder what that was about 

He was. And the fact is if he isn’t on the major league roster this year they have to let him go. I would be fine with him as a platoon bat. As an example, if they brought Happ back let KA play against a lefty. Also, maybe Shaw plays left and KA subs in for Busch at first from time to time. Maybe he is the right handed DH? Lots of opportunities for him and playing a little 1st base adds opportunity. 

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

On the one hand, I get it from a hitting standpoint, but on the other hand, this OF market is brutal for the Cubs, Sato seems likely to end up with a short term Murakami-like deal (2/$34m), and Sato offers positional versatility as a 3B/OF.

It's admittedly a bit of a desperation play on my part, because some of my feelings on Sato admittedly come from a place of dread of the alternative if Happ and/or Seiya leave.  I've made my POV on their internal options known in this thread, and I do not get any positive feelings when I look at the other OF options likely to be available, either because I don't think they're realistic (Arozarena), they're a massive risk (Duran), and/or they'd require trade resources better used to acquire pitching (Kwan).

Blah.

The OF market is brutal. Today, my guess is that the Cubs, for better or worse, will feel like they can throw numbers at LF, RF and DH more than anything. With Ramirez and Shaw, you've got two already who can rotate in some fashion out there. And with the neediness of the rotation, I wonder how much money will be left over to solve COF anyways. There are probably enough platoon types that can take spaces. Lawrence Butler had a banger of an end to the season and I think he could be a name that they could trade for, as an example, fairly cheaply for DH. 

Don't take this as gospel, but someone who has some connections has mentioned Jake Bauers as someone he believes the Cubs will be in on as well. Bauers, who walks a lot, feels much more like a typical Cubs' target in this fashion than Sato. What the Cubs are willing to do with Bauers and how, is certainly debatable and how far they'd go is as well. But just a thing I've seen posited by someone who I at least trust enough to pass along.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

I feel like KA would work best as a secondary option rather than a primary.  I'd be glad having him for specific matchups, giving guys off days, and his ability to man all three OF spots, but I feel like things *should* have clicked for him by now.  I know, I know, he'll be 24 next season and prospect fatigue is very real with him, but I am way more optimistic about Kane Kepley being a starting OF in 2028 than I am with KA.

As much as people might not like it, Happ ticks most every box this FO values: intangibles, versatility as a switch hitter, reasonably productive, likely to give a hometown discount, etc.

Alcantara might be Conforto replacement but from the right side...

Barring trades, new additions and resigning, bench options as of now..

C. Amaya/Ayers

Shaw

Ramirez 

Arias

Alcantara 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm really curious if the team would sign Taira given his body type.  The team has really leaned into height and extension and athleticism as the years have gone on.  Taira looks like Gotenks when the boys horsefeathersed up the fusion dance.  But hey we've signed Shota and Stroman in the past five years, and we know they LOVE weird approach angles.

Sato will likely find someone willing to let him stay on the dirt and Itoh's basically another Sugano, so I doubt either is going to end up here.

I think even with the body type they'd be in. They were definitely scouting him through the season, and while it was officially reported they were there once, I think it's probably more. They also have invested a ton into being a destination for NPB players and of all of the incoming Japanese players Taira feels like the most likely. He's a groundball merchant, has a weird arm angle, has a super cool fastball shape and generates good whiff. Has a bag of tricks already too as he threw 7 pitches last season. 

On top of that, he'll cost no draft pick comp, some of the red flags on durability questions probably drop the price and his posting time (NPB players usually get posted in November) may force his signing before the CBA lockout. Which, we know the Cubs will get some work done before then. Add it up? Yeah, I think they probably can overlook the body type (which was described by someone as "looking like a fire hydrant" and this is my favorite description ever). 

I doubt there is any "have to have a Japanese player" mandate internally, but with how much they've put into it, and losing both Suzuki and Shota, I'd imagine the team would like to capitalize on that momentum too. 

Got a little burned on my feelings about Imai last year; though have heard at least one place that part of his struggles may have been soft-skills related to the Astros (his stuff graded out pretty well, but the struggles persisted). Do think Taira ticks a lot of boxes and just from my first-glance a the upcoming offseason do think Taira will be high on the list for the Cubs.

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Got a little burned on my feelings about Imai last year; though have heard at least one place that part of his struggles may have been soft-skills related to the Astros (his stuff graded out pretty well, but the struggles persisted). Do think Taira ticks a lot of boxes and just from my first-glance a the upcoming offseason do think Taira will be high on the list for the Cubs.

Same here.  Taira should fit well.  Is he going to get a deal like $16~18m AAV for 3~4 years?  

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I've looked into Sato because my initial thought was that they could be in on him. But the more I've dug into him, I just don't see him as a profile fit for the team. He's an aggressive swinger. Beyond aggressive. He swings very often, swinging at almost 60% of all breaking balls he saw in 2026. In terms of just pure swing # he would have swung at more breaking balls than almost every hitter in MLB (10 had more swings, but all saw at least 150+ more breaking balls). Approach is tweakable, but that...is a bad flag. 

He also showed significant whiff on fastballs. His 31.8% whiff on fastballs would put him fourth most in the MLB and we know NPB fastball's are well below MLB fastballs. 

His bat has a lot of the same red flag Murakami had, and while Murakami has had a successful year in 2026. I'm not convinced he won't have a short shelf life (like Joey Gallo). And unlike Murakami while his batted ball data is very good, it's not nearly as elite. 

When you wrap it all up, he's just not very "Cub" when it comes to the profile. He may find success, but I think it's a risky profile and doesn't fit neatly into the box of what the Cubs have looked for. It also doesn't fit neatly into the box of "typical things successful NPB to MLB hitters do" either. 

Kaima Taira however...while he has some flags I think he fits need and profile despite some of his red flags...

I didn't like look into any underlying metrics like you, but just looking at the other stats, Sato looks similar to  Murakami without the high walks.  His hitting tool seems to be just power, so there's lots that can go wrong there.  I'm not that interested.

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I didn't like look into any underlying metrics like you, but just looking at the other stats, Sato looks similar to  Murakami without the high walks.  His hitting tool seems to be just power, so there's lots that can go wrong there.  I'm not that interested.

Yeah, he doesn't get nearly the walks. He does make more contact than Murakami but it's not a ton more. But it's another reason I'd be a bit concerned. He's a hyper aggressive hitter who has a tendency to chase a lot of breaking balls and whiff a lot overall. 

Murakami has proven you can find some success even if the whiff is an issue, but we've generally seen high whiff, high walk, elite batted ball guys have short spurts of success but rarely long term success. And Sato comes without the walks. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

The OF market is brutal. Today, my guess is that the Cubs, for better or worse, will feel like they can throw numbers at LF, RF and DH more than anything. With Ramirez and Shaw, you've got two already who can rotate in some fashion out there. And with the neediness of the rotation, I wonder how much money will be left over to solve COF anyways. There are probably enough platoon types that can take spaces. Lawrence Butler had a banger of an end to the season and I think he could be a name that they could trade for, as an example, fairly cheaply for DH. 

Don't take this as gospel, but someone who has some connections has mentioned Jake Bauers as someone he believes the Cubs will be in on as well. Bauers, who walks a lot, feels much more like a typical Cubs' target in this fashion than Sato. What the Cubs are willing to do with Bauers and how, is certainly debatable and how far they'd go is as well. But just a thing I've seen posited by someone who I at least trust enough to pass along.

Bauers would be surprising given how much Hoyer detests guys that play bad defense. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Bauers would be surprising given how much Hoyer detests guys that play bad defense. 

Yeah, he would definitely be a bit of a departure on that. I do think there's some reason to believe they'd be in: he's been shockingly split neutral, posting above a 140 wRC+ against both LHP and RHP. Teams may also generally devalue him as a DH-only and due to track record: he's 31 and while he's been absolutely a banger this year, it isn't like he's done this for half a decade. 

The Cubs are losing some real offensive thunder so Bauers could slide into the lineup and clean up some of it. 

None of this is to suggest the Cubs are going to go bananas and "Bauers or Bust" but that it does sound like he's a name on the radar and probably gives us a little insight into what they're looking at.

[Bertz]

Each of the last two years we have at this point on the calendar been pretty certain the team's biggest move would be a SP and then it has very much not ended up that way.

But man I'd be surprised if the team did anything this winter on that side of the ball bigger than re-upping with Happ.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Each of the last two years we have at this point on the calendar been pretty certain the team's biggest move would be a SP and then it has very much not ended up that way.

But man I'd be surprised if the team did anything this winter on that side of the ball bigger than re-upping with Happ.

I don't remember the press conference at the end of '25 but this year he was adamant pitching was going to be the focus. I'm expecting Happ to take the QO and maybe something like re-signing Tyrone Taylor to be a flex guy/bench bat.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/10/paul-goldschmidt-intends-to-play-in-2027.html

Another guy I'd be interested in for the bench

[Tryptamine]

So perhaps a bit of a hot take, but I'm starting to lean towards not giving Ian a QO. It seems crazy to throw 23M at a platoon COF. How many strictly platoon players make 20+M a year? I guess he's at least on the right side of the platoon so he'd still probably see 400-450 PAs, but still.....

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

So perhaps a bit of a hot take, but I'm starting to lean towards not giving Ian a QO. It seems crazy to throw 23M at a platoon COF. How many strictly platoon players make 20+M a year? I guess he's at least on the right side of the platoon so he'd still probably see 400-450 PAs, but still.....

Before last season he never had that crazy of a platoon split. I mean he was always worse RH but last season seems like an aberration 

Edited yesterday at 12:37 AM by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Before last season he never had that crazy of a platoon split

He's also 32 now, I don't expect him to suddenly regain form.