Cubs (Gausman) vs Padres (Pivetta): Wild Card Game 2, 9:00pm CST

[Derwood]

[cl smooth]

Man, I am gonna miss Seiya and Shota.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

Man, I am gonna miss Seiya and Shota.

Same here. They're great dudes. 

[mul21]

Unfortunately that series went about how I expected it to.  At least I didn't have to stay up until midnight to watch the bullpen piss down their leg and give games away late to make things even more painful.  I have no idea how you fix this roster in a single offseason with what's available in FA, the contracts they have locked in, and the subpar farm system.  The only real hope is that they somehow stay healthier next year and that solves a number of the problems they had this year.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Still can't believe Dansby swung at that 3-1 

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Unfortunately that series went about how I expected it to.  At least I didn't have to stay up until midnight to watch the bullpen piss down their leg and give games away late to make things even more painful.  I have no idea how you fix this roster in a single offseason with what's available in FA, the contracts they have locked in, and the subpar farm system.  The only real hope is that they somehow stay healthier next year and that solves a number of the problems they had this year.

Better health luck with Brown, Cabrera and Wiggins may help.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Unfortunately that series went about how I expected it to.  At least I didn't have to stay up until midnight to watch the bullpen piss down their leg and give games away late to make things even more painful.  I have no idea how you fix this roster in a single offseason with what's available in FA, the contracts they have locked in, and the subpar farm system.  The only real hope is that they somehow stay healthier next year and that solves a number of the problems they had this year.

It'll be tricky. I think a lot of us had the same questions last year "How do you replicate 2025 with the loss of Kyle Tucker?" and the Cubs did a great job on the offensive front. And they did, at least on paper, throughout the offseason and 2026 put more resources into the pitching side. They did a multi-year FA deal for a RP. They traded for a young, controlled SP. More could have been used (and obviously with hindsight, was needed - a failure on the Cubs part here) but they did an admirable job last offseason to get better. A healthier pitching staff and we'd have seen more of it. 

The good news is that the pitching was so bad that improvement there shouldn't be that hard. Like, don't have the worst staff in baseball and you can likely find any wins you lose from PCA going from "historically good" to just "Very very good" or something. Corner OF will be a tricky answer but one I think you can find ways around; it isn't like we're needing a SS. 

Add in the CBA conundrum and the offseason should be interesting in spurts. And good reminder Jed jumped the market for Semien las CBA. With NPB teams posting players, usually in November, there should be a little rush to get those guys in before Dec 1st as well. I'm not sure how a lack of a CBA will be factored into that.

Everything is doable. It's tricky. But I don't think they'll fall apart as a team - they should still be good. Jed does have work to do, though to take the next step and that's needed this offseason. Can't be flawed like this any more.

[gflore34]

I believe the Padres can beat the Brewers although, this series not withstanding, their starting pitching is for horsefeathers.  King was legitimately good, Pivetta benefited from a Cubs team in one of their collective funks.  He was pumping BP FB's down the middle and the Cubs were consistently getting under, missing them.  Don't think that's going to fly against other teams they'll face.

Edited yesterday at 01:48 PM by gflore34

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It'll be tricky. I think a lot of us had the same questions last year "How do you replicate 2025 with the loss of Kyle Tucker?" and the Cubs did a great job on the offensive front. And they did, at least on paper, throughout the offseason and 2026 put more resources into the pitching side. They did a multi-year FA deal for a RP. They traded for a young, controlled SP. More could have been used (and obviously with hindsight, was needed - a failure on the Cubs part here) but they did an admirable job last offseason to get better. A healthier pitching staff and we'd have seen more of it. 

The good news is that the pitching was so bad that improvement there shouldn't be that hard. Like, don't have the worst staff in baseball and you can likely find any wins you lose from PCA going from "historically good" to just "Very very good" or something. Corner OF will be a tricky answer but one I think you can find ways around; it isn't like we're needing a SS. 

Add in the CBA conundrum and the offseason should be interesting in spurts. And good reminder Jed jumped the market for Semien las CBA. With NPB teams posting players, usually in November, there should be a little rush to get those guys in before Dec 1st as well. I'm not sure how a lack of a CBA will be factored into that.

Everything is doable. It's tricky. But I don't think they'll fall apart as a team - they should still be good. Jed does have work to do, though to take the next step and that's needed this offseason. Can't be flawed like this any more.

Is that supposed to be Seiya?

The guys they have signed provide a decent baseline to work from, so there's no real worry they're going to be a disaster, but those 10 wins to get from 80 to 90 are a lot tougher to find than the ones to get from 70 to 80, and I'm just not sure Jed is capable of being that guy, especially when you consider what the roster is losing and what's available.  Can he get creative and find a team desperate for infield help and turn Ramirez or Shaw into a corner OF with a higher offensive ceiling than they have?  Or does he have to use those guys to rebuild the pitching staff?  As you said, it'll be a tricky offseason to navigate successfully but there are certainly some paths to an equivalent roster to this year out there.

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It'll be tricky. I think a lot of us had the same questions last year "How do you replicate 2025 with the loss of Kyle Tucker?" and the Cubs did a great job on the offensive front. And they did, at least on paper, throughout the offseason and 2026 put more resources into the pitching side. They did a multi-year FA deal for a RP. They traded for a young, controlled SP. More could have been used (and obviously with hindsight, was needed - a failure on the Cubs part here) but they did an admirable job last offseason to get better. A healthier pitching staff and we'd have seen more of it. 

The good news is that the pitching was so bad that improvement there shouldn't be that hard. Like, don't have the worst staff in baseball and you can likely find any wins you lose from PCA going from "historically good" to just "Very very good" or something. Corner OF will be a tricky answer but one I think you can find ways around; it isn't like we're needing a SS. 

Add in the CBA conundrum and the offseason should be interesting in spurts. And good reminder Jed jumped the market for Semien las CBA. With NPB teams posting players, usually in November, there should be a little rush to get those guys in before Dec 1st as well. I'm not sure how a lack of a CBA will be factored into that.

Everything is doable. It's tricky. But I don't think they'll fall apart as a team - they should still be good. Jed does have work to do, though to take the next step and that's needed this offseason. Can't be flawed like this any more.

I don't know Jason, I'm quite iffy on whether to put any effort towards NPB prospects.  All of the very good players seem to only want to be Dodgers.  Just seems like an exercise in futility.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I don't know Jason, I'm quite iffy on whether to put any effort towards NPB prospects.  All of the very good players seem to only want to be Dodgers.  Just seems like an exercise in futility.

I think the entire "no one gets the good NPB guys" doesn't work when you realize Okamota, Shota, and Seiya aren't on the Dodgers. Imai went to Houston (hasn't worked out). Lee went to the SFG (from Korea). Yes, the Dodgers do have guys like Yamamoto, Ohtani and Sasaki. But Sasaki was a raw prospect who hasn't hit yet, Yamamoto and Ohtani were guys who make a billion dollars, essentially. One of them, almost literally. They can't and always won't win them, however.

The Cubs have invested heavily into NPB scouting. Heavily. They hired a guy of Japanese decent as a high ranking scout. The Cubs can/will continue to invest in the NPB and not without an eye of signing guys. 

If there's one thing I'm confident in it's that the Cubs are very unlikely to enter the 2027 season without a Japanese player on the roster. Which one? Your guess is as good as mine (I think maybe Taira might be up their alley, though).

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Is that supposed to be Seiya?

The guys they have signed provide a decent baseline to work from, so there's no real worry they're going to be a disaster, but those 10 wins to get from 80 to 90 are a lot tougher to find than the ones to get from 70 to 80, and I'm just not sure Jed is capable of being that guy, especially when you consider what the roster is losing and what's available.  Can he get creative and find a team desperate for infield help and turn Ramirez or Shaw into a corner OF with a higher offensive ceiling than they have?  Or does he have to use those guys to rebuild the pitching staff?  As you said, it'll be a tricky offseason to navigate successfully but there are certainly some paths to an equivalent roster to this year out there.

Ooops. Not Seiya. I meant Stroman and wrote Semien!

[Outshined_One]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

If there's one thing I'm confident in it's that the Cubs are very unlikely to enter the 2027 season without a Japanese player on the roster. Which one? Your guess is as good as mine (I think maybe Taira might be up their alley, though).

If we're dreaming, Sato would help solve the corner OF situation if he gets posted.

[mul21]

A Hottovy replacement is available.  I don't know if he's a well regarded as he used to be but he's definitely a name guy.

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

A Hottovy replacement is available.  I don't know if he's a well regarded as he used to be but he's definitely a name guy.

 

That said he was away for personal reasons (and may not want to coach). He's also been a high ranking pitching dev guy in orgs, and with Zombro, that won't be the case here. So hard to tell if there's a fit.

[Rex Buckingham]

PCA obviously improved a ton from 25 to 26. Seiya went from 2.6 fWAR and a 123 wRC+ to 4.6 and a 134. Every other regular that stuck around got worse in either fWAR, wRC+, or both. Dansby dropped 7 points in wRC+, Nico dropped 22 and 2 WAR, Happ only declined 7 points in wRC+, but Busch was down 28 and Kelly down 12. Amaya (25) and Shaw (26) had seasons so messed up by injury that it's hard to compare year over year.

2nd half Bregman and improvements from PCA and Seiya (and a hot start to the season from the team as a whole) dragged this team into the playoffs. There will obviously be a lot of roster turnover this year and hopefully we can have a pitching staff with at least one starter we are confident starting in a playoff game next year, but the biggest factors in the 2026 Cubs success might be getting Nico back to around a 100 wRC+, having Busch rediscover his power, and maybe getting a bounce back from Dansby

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

If we're dreaming, Sato would help solve the corner OF situation if he gets posted.

Sato would be really fun. Yes, please.

[UMFan83]

8 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

if they insist on the WC round, i'd rather have them cut the season by a week and make all the playoff series 4/7. two ****** games and your season is over f'n sucks

I agree, I didn't like it last year even when we won, definitely don't like it this year when we lost.  Figure out a way to stretch it to a best or 5 or at the very least a best of 3 where the lower seeded team gets 1 home game.  I know it will never happen though because it would involve shortening the season and that's not going to fly.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

You'll want to rethink that after looking at the upcoming FA class.

Yeah for sure, but i also mean via trade etc

[Andy]

19 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I agree, I didn't like it last year even when we won, definitely don't like it this year when we lost.  Figure out a way to stretch it to a best or 5 or at the very least a best of 3 where the lower seeded team gets 1 home game.  I know it will never happen though because it would involve shortening the season and that's not going to fly.

Yep, the stated reason for doing this series is that people didn't 'feel' like they really made the playoffs if they only played 1 game. Don't see how playing 2 is much of an improvement, especially when they go like ours (and the Red Sox') did.

[ILMindState]

I don't ever wanna hear home field doesn't matter. A team full of vets looked frightened out there. Couldn't hit low 90s fastballs middle middle. Challenging pitches and plays out of sheer panic and desperation. They were defeated after that 1st inning on game 1. 

[gflore34]

44 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

PCA obviously improved a ton from 25 to 26. Seiya went from 2.6 fWAR and a 123 wRC+ to 4.6 and a 134. Every other regular that stuck around got worse in either fWAR, wRC+, or both. Dansby dropped 7 points in wRC+, Nico dropped 22 and 2 WAR, Happ only declined 7 points in wRC+, but Busch was down 28 and Kelly down 12. Amaya (25) and Shaw (26) had seasons so messed up by injury that it's hard to compare year over year.

2nd half Bregman and improvements from PCA and Seiya (and a hot start to the season from the team as a whole) dragged this team into the playoffs. There will obviously be a lot of roster turnover this year and hopefully we can have a pitching staff with at least one starter we are confident starting in a playoff game next year, but the biggest factors in the 2026 Cubs success might be getting Nico back to around a 100 wRC+, having Busch rediscover his power, and maybe getting a bounce back from Dansby

Regarding Busch - think the Cubs need to go with a lefty-righty platoon.  Saw a mention of Ty France as an option but, he suddenly had a big year in a prove it year.  Otherwise, he's pretty much a meddling replacement level player, guess I should look up his numbers vs. LHP.  Look up the numbers career vs. LHP, nothing special .757 OPS, 101 OPS+, nevertheless, an improvement over Busch.

Edited yesterday at 02:57 PM by gflore34

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I don't ever wanna hear home field doesn't matter. A team full of vets looked frightened out there. Couldn't hit low 90s fastballs middle middle. Challenging pitches and plays out of sheer panic and desperation. They were defeated after that 1st inning on game 1. 

That's what frustrated me, the announcing crew talking up Pivetta as if he was special.  He wasn't and isn't, Padres' fans have a rude awakening coming their way when he gets lit up.

[ILMindState]

I didn't think the Cubs would win but didn't expect them to be that bad. I don't even wanna watch the rest of the playoffs anymore. That'll probably change in a couple days but ughhhh...

[s2obed]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Still can't believe Dansby swung at that 3-1 

3-0 and 3-1 my friend.

If I know the team is struggling with the bats, I'm not taking the bat off my shoulders until it's 3-2 lol