Cubs (Boyd) vs Padres (King): Wild Card Game 1, 9:00pm CST

[UMFan83]

[Soul]

This is the least surprising outcome imaginable. The hottest (or close) team in baseball with a great home record against a team that limped to the finish line.

[Geographyhater8888]

30 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

This is correct.  I like Boyd, and I wouldn't mind him being back next year if he's the #4 starter, but this is now two years in a row where he has been forced to start critical playoff games.  This pitching staff simply isn't constructed to win in the postseason.  Part of that is injuries, but that excuse only goes so far.  Steele was a big question mark going into the season and if the Cubs were counting on him as a TOR starter then that was a mistake.  Brown was a great story early in the season, but again he is not a guy who has ever shown that he can be counted on to take the ball every fifth day.  Horton was a big loss and that definitely impacted the team, but even with Horton in the rotation, they still wouldn't have enough.  And that isn't even getting into the bullpen. 

Jed built a pitching staff that was dependent on everything going right, which is almost never the case.  And then he went out and traded legitimate assets at the deadline to try to patch some of the holes.  Maybe Gausman goes out and shoves tonight and helps to extend the season, but dealing Rojas for Holmes appears to have been a big miss.  People will say, "Rojas was blocked in Chicago anyway", which is absolutely true, but the Cubs need to start turning guys like that into actual contributors.  The farm system is thin enough as it is, and dealing the likes of Caissie and Rojas for Cabrera and Holmes just digs that hole deeper.  The Cubs go into next year with zero starters they can count on in the rotation.  Does anyone really trust Jed to properly address that?

We also emphasize how home runs are key in the playoffs, I’m not sure how run prevention from an elite defense translate to postseason success. I’d guess it’s weak with a pitching sfaff full of guys who give up a ton of homers. That’s Jed, cutting corners for regular season success at the expense of what helps win championships. That $320 million gold glove middle infield and war that didn’t prevent 3 home runs last night and neither did their bats like an equivalent pitcher. 

The good news is that he’ll be able to sign more number 3/4 starters with Taillon, Boyd and Imanaga on medium length deals, the bad news is once again relying on guys beating projections without a true game 1 starter.

Edited 17 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We also emphasize how home runs are key in the playoffs, I’m not sure how run prevention from an elite defense translate to postseason success. I’d guess it’s weak with a pitching sfaff full of guys who give up a ton of homers. That’s Jed, cutting corners for regular season success at the expense of what helps win championships. 

The good news is that he’ll be able to sign more number 3/4 starters with Taillon, Boyd and Imanaga on medium length deals, the bad news is once again relying on guys beating projections. 

Jed's never ending quest for value or most bang for the buck. Frustrates all of us, always the same cheap approach, never prioritize swing and miss because it's too expensive.

[JBears79]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Jed's never ending quest for value or most bang for the buck. Frustrates all of us, always the same cheap approach, never prioritize swing and miss because it's too expensive.

The complete lack of an ace and velocity in the bullpen is so crippling to playoff teams. I dont understand Jed's obsession with all this junk ballers. Not having a go to guy you can trust in either capacity is infuriating. Lester was the last guy you could count on to show up in big games and we have been looking to fill that void ever since. I thought maybe Horton would be that guy this year, but I am struggling to see where we find that ace in the future without getting Skubal. Funny enough, someone in the game thread mentioned King could be on the market this year since he has an opt out, but is he the ace we are looking for? I dont know.

[chibears55]

23 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

This is correct.  I like Boyd, and I wouldn't mind him being back next year if he's the #4 starter, but this is now two years in a row where he has been forced to start critical playoff games.  This pitching staff simply isn't constructed to win in the postseason.  Part of that is injuries, but that excuse only goes so far.  Steele was a big question mark going into the season and if the Cubs were counting on him as a TOR starter then that was a mistake.  Brown was a great story early in the season, but again he is not a guy who has ever shown that he can be counted on to take the ball every fifth day.  Horton was a big loss and that definitely impacted the team, but even with Horton in the rotation, they still wouldn't have enough.  And that isn't even getting into the bullpen. 

Jed built a pitching staff that was dependent on everything going right, which is almost never the case.  And then he went out and traded legitimate assets at the deadline to try to patch some of the holes.  Maybe Gausman goes out and shoves tonight and helps to extend the season, but dealing Rojas for Holmes appears to have been a big miss.  People will say, "Rojas was blocked in Chicago anyway", which is absolutely true, but the Cubs need to start turning guys like that into actual contributors.  The farm system is thin enough as it is, and dealing the likes of Caissie and Rojas for Cabrera and Holmes just digs that hole deeper.  The Cubs go into next year with zero starters they can count on in the rotation.  Does anyone really trust Jed to properly address that?

Yes injuries happened and no i dont trust Jed to address anything properly. 

He went out and brought in Gausman 4.83 ERA, Holmes 4.25 ERA, Zeferjahn 4.50 ERA, as Cubs.  Garrett stayed in Iowa til last game of season.

Funny thing too, BlueJays trade Gausman and made a strong push for a WC spot led by the prospect they recieved from the Cubs (Bateman).....

[chibears55]

I know how much we rag Imanaga but of all the starters, he had a really good month of September in 4 real starts and one 1 inning start.

24 innings and only 6 runs given up, and he likely won't even touch the ball in the postseason 🙄🙄🙄

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

The complete lack of an ace and velocity in the bullpen is so crippling to playoff teams. I dont understand Jed's obsession with all this junk ballers. Not having a go to guy you can trust in either capacity is infuriating. Lester was the last guy you could count on to show up in big games and we have been looking to fill that void ever since. I thought maybe Horton would be that guy this year, but I am struggling to see where we find that ace in the future without getting Skubal. Funny enough, someone in the game thread mentioned King could be on the market this year since he has an opt out, but is he the ace we are looking for? I dont know.

Thats why he values defense. The lack of swing and miss can make someone like David Peterson look decent. They tried and failed with Cabrera, Wiggins and Brown are injured too. Throw enough darts and you’ll land on Pomeranz, Theilbar, Keller and Rollison this year. They don’t draft many pitchers, they don’t sign expensive pitchers for fear of injury who have that swing and miss ability and instead rely on a $320 million infield to circumvent this which works to an extent in the regular season. If’s big market money ball. 
 

They’re horsefeathered if not for PCA shattering everyone’s wildest expectations.

Edited 17 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[chibears55]

36 minutes ago, Soul said:

This is the least surprising outcome imaginable. The hottest (or close) team in baseball with a great home record against a team that limped to the finish line.

Limped in and getting pulverized on way out

🙄

[Wilson A2000]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I know how much we rag Imanaga but of all the starters, he had a really good month of September in 4 real starts and one 1 inning start.

24 innings and only 6 runs given up, and he likely won't even touch the ball in the postseason 🙄🙄🙄

Craig doesn’t trust him in the playoffs and I can’t disagree with him

[chibears55]

Just now, Wilson A2000 said:

Craig doesn’t trust him in the playoffs and I can’t disagree with him

I get it, I have the same trust issue but I dont trust any of these guys 🤷

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Thats why he values defense. The lack of swing and miss can make someone like David Peterson look decent. Throw enough darts and you’ll land on Pomeranz, Theilbar, Keller and Rollison this year. They don’t draft many pitchers, they don’t sign expensive pitchers who have that swing and miss ability and instead rely on a $320 million infield to circumvent this which works to an extent in the regular season. If’s big market money ball. 
 

They’re horsefeathered if not for PCA shattering everyone’s wildest expectations.

Like you said the defense works to an extent for 162, and you cant defend balls hit way over your head, and there were lots of them.

[gflore34]

14 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Thats why he values defense. The lack of swing and miss can make someone like David Peterson look decent. They tried and failed with Cabrera, Wiggins and Brown are injured too. Throw enough darts and you’ll land on Pomeranz, Theilbar, Keller and Rollison this year. They don’t draft many pitchers, they don’t sign expensive pitchers who have that swing and miss ability and instead rely on a $320 million infield to circumvent this which works to an extent in the regular season. If’s big market money ball. 
 

They’re horsefeathered if not for PCA shattering everyone’s wildest expectations.

Was true until 2025 and 2026, haven't the numbers in front of me but, I'd guess, in total, 70-75% of the players drafted are pitchers.  Unfortunately, we won't see anything from the classes for another 3-4 years.

Edited 17 hours ago by gflore34

[UMFan83]

They say that how you are playing at the end of the season doesn't typically carry over into the playoffs, but it sure looked like the same Cubs offense of the last week.  The pitching was different, but unfortunately that means it was worse since it was holding down the fort the last week or so.

[PeanutPunch33]

When Horton went down, I thought this team was finished.  They’ve exceeded my expectations since then.  Gotta try to keep that perspective on days like today lol.  

I think the Cubs play well tonight and force a game 3.  

[Wilson A2000]

The Cubs have essentially been a .500 team since early to mid May. Losing this series is not unexpected. Jed doesn’t know how to put together a team that can make a deep playoff run and Tom will never really open the purse strings because 2016 already happened. If the Cubs are going to fire Hottovy and replace their pitching infrastructure, this is the time to move on from Jed and Carter also. This is a FO that hasn’t valued power pitching for years and until that changes, this organization is going nowhere. 

[Outshined_One]

I'd be shocked to see Hottovy return in 2027, so at least there will be a clean slate for whomever they bring in to replace him.

[s2obed]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'd be shocked to see Hottovy return in 2027, so at least there will be a clean slate for whomever they bring in to replace him.

It's time for a new pitching coach but he won't fix the lack of swing and miss that's missing from the Cubs' staff.

Edited 16 hours ago by s2obed

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, s2obed said:

It's time for a new pitching coach but he won't fix the lack of swing and miss that's missing from the Cubs' staff.

No but if part of an entire overhaul of pitching infrastructure, I would assume a new pitching coach would have some input on personnel decisions to put together a certain type of staff

[s2obed]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

No but if part of an entire overhaul of pitching infrastructure, I would assume a new pitching coach would have some input on personnel decisions to put together a certain type of staff

Probably, but ultimately Jed has pursued the same type of arms since he took over. 

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, s2obed said:

Probably, but ultimately Jed has pursued the same type of arms since he took over. 

Right.  I would assume that was partially influenced by Hottovy, or Hottovy was the pitching coach due to this pitching philosophy.  If he is let go, to me it signals a change in direction/approach.

Edited 16 hours ago by UMFan83

[We Got The Whole 9]

Did they really tell Holmes to lower his arm slot? 

[gflore34]

Situation with pitching to contact/lack of swing and miss is similar to the Brewers' MO of death by 1000 cuts on offense.  Both can work over the course of a long regular season facing primarily bad teams with bad hitters and pitchers.  Post season is where both MO's break down no longer have the convenience of facing bad teams.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Situation with pitching to contact/lack of swing and miss is similar to the Brewers' MO of death by 1000 cuts on offense.  Both can work over the course of a long regular season facing primarily bad teams with bad hitters and pitchers.  Post season is where both MO's break down no longer have the convenience of facing bad teams.  

Good thing we built a slump-proof playoff offense!

[cl smooth]

Someone start the game 2 thread so we can move from last night’s horsefeathers.