Cubs (Assad) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 7/30/26, 1:15pm

[BKHoo]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

4-2 in 10 doesn't sound too impressive but we had a .345 xBA in the game, so going to hold off on any sort of offense concern. busch stadium is playing like a huge pitchers park and we just got hits in the wrong order. come home tomorrow and take care of business against a very beat up yankees team (with likely an exhausted pen, 12 innings yesterday and 11+ today). brewers on the west coast. by the time we have to worry about the dodgers we should have better pitchers. 

Thanks White Sox! 😆 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Papa Cub said:

Hmm……if you’re Jed and you have Cabrera and Brown on the horizon, do you concentrate more on shoring up your bullpen, or go get an Ace?
I guess I was so hellbent on them getting a top SP,  I never thought of them going all in on a top available closer. Could you imagine a Webb (7th), Palencia (set up role), and a top reliever? That would help a lot.

SP rotation by mid- August could be:

Shota, Boyd, Brown, Cabrera, Rea/Assad. That’s actually not too bad with shut down closers in place. Thoughts?

They need both, which is why I don't see Hoyer using up most of his assets on one top guy. They need a SP, could use 2 relievers,  and probably a RH bat if they trade Shaw/Ramirez and want to replace Dean/Triantos with a better bat.

[BKHoo]

I assume our bullpen is not in great shape either?  - Given the last two games.  

[Brian707]

48 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I assume our bullpen is not in great shape either?  - Given the last two games.  

Mother nature might give the bullpen a break today 

[CubUgly]

14 hours ago, BKHoo said:

PCA and s so freakin money. 

So good, as good as anyone has ever been in center and according to many in the know - that's not hyperbole. 

Also, I thought his at bat in the 9th - even though he lined out to center, was very impressive.  Took some close pitches, worked the count to 3-2 and got a pitch he could hit and hit it hard. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, CubUgly said:

So good, as good as anyone has ever been in center and according to many in the know - that's not hyperbole. 

Also, I thought his at bat in the 9th - even though he lined out to center, was very impressive.  Took some close pitches, worked the count to 3-2 and got a pitch he could hit and hit it hard. 

I still cringe when I see a 2 strike breaking way off the plate expecting him to chase as a natural reflex from years past. One of the biggest year to year transformations by a player since Bonds hit 73 homers in 2001.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Mother nature might give the bullpen a break today 

How many rainouts have the Cubs had this year? Just curious. Because if you go by the weathermen on this site you would think they had to have at least 10 rainouts already. My guess is they play today. Which is my guess every day. And I am right over 95% of the time by expecting a scheduled game will be played.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How many rainouts have the Cubs had this year? Just curious. Because if you go by the weathermen on this site you would think they had to have at least 10 rainouts already. My guess is they play today. Which is my guess every day. And I am right over 95% of the time by expecting a scheduled game will be played.

Thank you for your service 

[Brian707]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How many rainouts have the Cubs had this year? Just curious. Because if you go by the weathermen on this site you would think they had to have at least 10 rainouts already. My guess is they play today. Which is my guess every day. And I am right over 95% of the time by expecting a scheduled game will be played.

I think just one. I had tickets for the Toronto game 

Edited 3 hours ago by Brian707

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

I think just one. I had tickets for the Toronto game 

I have tickets for today. But in all seriousness the rain isn’t really expected until 4. My guess is they will play without incident. But even if they do stop play, I think they will go 9. 

[Papa Cub]

10 hours ago, chibears55 said:

They need both, which is why I don't see Hoyer using up most of his assets on one top guy. They need a SP, could use 2 relievers,  and probably a RH bat if they trade Shaw/Ramirez and want to replace Dean/Triantos with a better bat.

Thanks for the reply - my take is this:

Rather than spreading out too much (SP, RPs or Right handed bat etc), address your biggest NEED. Right now, our biggest need is a closer or bullpen. So I am wondering if Jed just hones in on one specific area of the pitching staff as opposed to trying to get quantity…..I’d rather see them go quality instead of quantity. 
With Cabrera and Brown coming back within the month, I could see them going to look for an arm to close or bolster the bullpen

Edited 3 hours ago by Papa Cub

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

Thanks for the reply - my take is this:

Rather than spreading out too much (SP, RPs or Right handed bat etc), address your biggest NEED. Right now, our biggest need is a closer or bullpen. So I am wondering if Jed just hones in on one specific area of the pitching staff as opposed to trying to get quantity…..I’d rather see them go quality instead of quantity. 
With Cabrera and Brown coming back within the month, I could see them going to look for an arm to close or bolster the bullpen

We don’t know if Cabrera or brown is coming back at all, but the odds of them contributing this year are a lot higher if they’re coming out of the pen (not to mention they could come back quicker). Better starters also lessens the strain on the bullpen because they’ll be needed for less innings. 

[CubinNY]

Suck it again Asaad haters. 

He's the type of pitcher who has a 15-year career in MLB, and no one can understand why. It's because more often than not, he's going to keep you in the game. 

[Papa Cub]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We don’t know if Cabrera or brown is coming back at all, but the odds of them contributing this year are a lot higher if they’re coming out of the pen (not to mention they could come back quicker). Better starters also lessens the strain on the bullpen because they’ll be needed for less innings. 

No argument there - so you feel the biggest need is SP? In other words if you could get Skubal you would take him over getting Mason Miller? 
Im just asking to get other people’s opinions and takes. We all want the same outcome - Wins and deep playoff run.

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

No argument there - so you feel the biggest need is SP? In other words if you could get Skubal you would take him over getting Mason Miller? 
Im just asking to get other people’s opinions and takes. We all want the same outcome - Wins and deep playoff run.

A lot depends on what it takes to get a particular guy, but even then, your comparison isn't apples to apples with Skubal being a FA after the season and Miller having multiple years of control remaining.

Overall, I think you benefit more from getting a good SP who can start a playoff game but the calculus depends a bit on who's coming back healthy and what role they're going to have.  This team doesn't have enough pitching, period.  Add Cabrera and a trade piece to the rotation, then get Palencia, Brown, Harvey and maybe Steele back in the bullpen and the need becomes less, but you're not going to know that until after the deadline so there's some guess work involved.  

[CubUgly]

39 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Suck it again Asaad haters. 

He's the type of pitcher who has a 15-year career in MLB, and no one can understand why. It's because more often than not, he's going to keep you in the game. 

Assad COMPETES in the truest and best sense of the word.  And that's not something that's measurable so folks in the analytics and sabermatric world cannot make sense of it.  

[Rcal10]

I would like to see one controlled starting pitcher brought in. Preferably Detmers. Then get the best pen arm you can get. I think with Webb, Palencia, Milner, Rea, Rolison, Assad, and one good pen arm via trade the pen will be ok. They might have Steele and Brown back too.
I think the reason a controlled pitcher is so important here is because next year you only have Brown, Cabrera and then a few maybes. Maybe Steele is back. Maybe they offer a QO to Boyd and he accepts, maybe they sign a FA, maybe Wiggins is ready, etc….. they need one more definite. 
But if a rental is much cheaper I wouldn’t mind Mize, Peralta, or Holmes. Maybe even Ray or Mahle. I guess it all depends on who gets moved and the cost. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Assad COMPETES in the truest and best sense of the word.  And that's not something that's measurable so folks in the analytics and sabermatric world cannot make sense of it.  

I like Assad. I think he is better than what analytics suggest he is. He does seem to out perform them all the time. But even with that he is a BOR starter who the Cubs can upgrade from. I agree with you, he does compete and rises to the occasion more often then not. 

[Bertz]

Assad with his fastball north of 93 (it was over 94 yesterday) is a totally different animal compared to Assad with his fastball in the 91-92 range.

2024/2025 Assad was a bad pitcher getting by with a combo of Wrigley winds, the Cubs defense, frequently getting bailed out by the bullpen in the 5th inning, and a healthy amount of luck.  The Assad we're seeing right now is probably much closer to a mid-rotation starter.  This is what he looked like in 2023 IMO.

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Assad with his fastball north of 93 (it was over 94 yesterday) is a totally different animal compared to Assad with his fastball in the 91-92 range.

2024/2025 Assad was a bad pitcher getting by with a combo of Wrigley winds, the Cubs defense, frequently getting bailed out by the bullpen in the 5th inning, and a healthy amount of luck.  The Assad we're seeing right now is probably much closer to a mid-rotation starter.  This is what he looked like in 2023 IMO.

So someone who can be in the rotation next year? That would be a huge win if that is the case. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So someone who can be in the rotation next year? That would be a huge win if that is the case. 

Bertz is better at this than I am but for starters there's no guarantee he maintains this velocity. He had it in 2023 and then it went away for a couple years. And then beyond that, the quality of contact he's giving up seems to be worse. His FIP is the worst of his career, xERA and xFIP are down slightly but certainly not to levels you'd want 180 innings out of. If you think the elite LOB% is somehow just a thing he can do, I guess you can put a multiplier on otherwise mediocre metrics. But I'm still very skeptical.

[CubinNY]

Before anyone gets their undies in a bunch - I don't think anyone is an Asaad hater. I'm mostly joking with these posts. But I do think he's a very useful pitcher to have on a team. It seems like every really good team has one or two Asaad type pitchers. 

[macarthur31]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So someone who can be in the rotation next year? That would be a huge win if that is the case. 

To his credit, his FIP/xFIP is 4.83/4.36 - which would be the biggest gap in his career where his expected outperformed his actual.  His next best was '24, where it was 4.64/4.61 (when he logged his most innings - 147).

There seems to be a reason why Jed/Couns preferred to keep Rea on retainer (yes, I avoided that pun on purpose), instead of saving the $6M and giving Assad the swing (starter in case of emergency) role.  He's under club control through '29, so that also been a saving grace.  He has a knack for Houdini escapes, but to sample a quote from Dean Wormer of Animal House, "Low velo, Low K rate, and High hard-hit allowed is no way to go through life (as a starter)." 

[Tryptamine]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So someone who can be in the rotation next year? That would be a huge win if that is the case. 

You cannot have 2 rotation spots occupied by Assad and Rea in 2027 and say you're a World Series caliber team. Yes they're very nice fill in guys, but if they're 40% of your rotation, the other 60% better be lights out.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, macarthur31 said:

To his credit, his FIP/xFIP is 4.83/4.36 - which would be the biggest gap in his career where his expected outperformed his actual.  His next best was '24, where it was 4.64/4.61 (when he logged his most innings - 147).

There seems to be a reason why Jed/Couns preferred to keep Rea on retainer (yes, I avoided that pun on purpose), instead of saving the $6M and giving Assad the swing (starter in case of emergency) role.  He's under club control through '29, so that also been a saving grace.  He has a knack for Houdini escapes, but to sample a quote from Dean Wormer of Animal House, "Low velo, Low K rate, and High hard-hit allowed is no way to go through life (as a starter)." 

Yeah I think I'd top out at giving Assad the Rea role next year.  Assad seems materially better than he was a year ago while Rea seems materially worse.  And crucially Assad will still have a minor league option so if to squally's point he backslides again or, god willing, we have 13 better guys healthy at the same time he's easily pushed off to Iowa.