Is modem pitcher training/philosophy still worth the costs?

[Stratos]

The explanation for the glut of Cubs pitcher injuries this year is " this is just the reality in 2026".  That's likely very true, but is it an acceptable excuse?  If we're doing something the rest of the league is doing, and the result is better velo/stuff and lower ERAs from pitchers but they're unable to stay off IL, then maybe it's  time to reevaluate the wisdom of that entire strategy.

At what point do the benefits not outweigh the costs?  Improving a pitcher's ERA by e.g half a run or a full run is great, but it's not useful if they aren't healthy and the roster is filled with replacement- level pitchers. 

Would we rather have Steele and Horton putting up e.g 3.80 ERAs instead of Cy Young. numbers but avoiding multiple elbow surgeries?

It makes sense for the pitchers with borderline talent to take the risk, but what about everyone else?  Will teams & players start taking the gas off the throttle a bit?

[Jason Ross]

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

They're becoming the running backs of baseball. 

But yea, there's no putting the cat back in the bag at this point. Velocity = Outs. Velocity training at younger ages is becoming more and more prevalent.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

So is it inevitable that guys like Miz, Skenes, Skubal and Burns WILL get hurt. Not “if” but when they get hurt someone else will step in? I have noticed the Brewers let their young pitchers throw more than 100 pitches a game. Miz did it against the Cubs and just a few days ago Sproat threw 106. Will they be regretting this soon? 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So is it inevitable that guys like Miz, Skenes, Skubal and Burns WILL get hurt. Not “if” but when they get hurt someone else will step in? I have noticed the Brewers let their young pitchers throw more than 100 pitches a game. Miz did it against the Cubs and just a few days ago Sproat threw 106. Will they be regretting this soon? 

I think it's very likely, yes. Not *every* pitcher goes down with TJS, but the reality is the more people who throw the way these guys do, the more risk and potential damage they're doing. Some people are genetic freaks who won the lottery of throwing 99mph and can withstand that. Others not so much. 

Will they regret it? My guess is no, as long as they get paid. 

To put it another way; NFL players consistently put their brains in danger, I suspect MLB pitchers will value their arms less than their brains, all things considered. 

[Outshined_One]

It also helps to remember that, over the last 20 years, there have been massive advances in the Science of Baseball (for lack of a better term), particularly when it comes to hitting.  It's not just things like advanced stats (although those helped), where teams have figured out things like optimal swing paths and launch angles, and have also invested heavily in technological advances for developing hitters and gaining a competitive edge.  We've apparently gotten to the point where you can feed data about any pitcher in baseball into a pitching machine and have it mimic that pitcher reasonably well.

Velocity appears to be the only thing that consistently generates swing and miss.

[Bertz]

On a per pitch / per batter / per inning basis modern pitchers are much much much much much much much much better than what they were before all this pitch design stuff started getting figured out. 

The average 4S fastball this year is 94.6 MPH.  In 2008(first year of reliable pitch tracking) the average fastball was almost two full MPH slower at 91.8.  Hell this year in the Florida State League (Low A) the average four seam fastball is 93.4 MPH.  It's not just velo either!  Slider spin has risen from 2102 rpms in 2015 to 2435 this year.

So how do you reverse this trend?  It's going to take some sweeping systemic changes, and IMO I've yet to hear any that address everything.

1. You have to incentivize teams to prioritize length.  This actually feels pretty doable.  11 man staffs, the double hook, etc.  There are some levers to pull to help on this front, though no silver bullet IMO

2. You have to discourage roster churn on the team side.  This feels tougher.  There are things you can do (fewer annual options per player, longer IL minimums), but if you go too far the switch quickly flips to just making the problem worse.  You potentially encourage teams to run guys' arms through the meat grinder (fewer precautionary IL stints).  And does less minor league roster flexibility just lead to fewer options but way more guys getting DFAd?

3.  You have to convince players it's not worth it to train for stuff.  This feels, frankly, impossible?  Unless you have unilateral disarmament there are always going to be guys pursuing this route and ruining the value proposition of training for durability. Pitcher injuries didn't magically get invented 10 years ago, they just went into overdrive.  If you train for durability you're not automatically turning into Maddux.  Is making it 10% less likely you blow out your arm but 20% more likely you stall out at AAA a good trade?  Not really.  So how are we supposed to convince every pitcher in pro and college baseball to pursue it?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I don't think there's anything baseball can really do to mitigate pitching injuries. The advancements are going to have to come from medicine to develop new procedures to shorten recovery time. Hopefully one day when a pitcher blows their UCL they're only out for a month or two instead of 18 months.

[mk49]

19 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Hopefully one day when a pitcher blows their UCL they're only out for a month or two instead of 18 months.

I hope so, too, but probably, not in my life time.😅

The current pitching trend/strategy won't change at least for a while.  It's hard to believe that Cease (or someone like him) never had a major injury, and that's very rare these days.

I think increase in the velo is something for sure, but guys like Steele and Boyd, who don't throw super hard also get injured.  So, no matter what the teams do, pitchers get hurt.  It's totally different from 20 years ago, when 220+ IP was kind of normal.

This year, I've been thinking (kinda negatively) that let young pitchers pitch as much as possible, while they can.  In a way, that's what the Brewers are doing.

Edited yesterday at 02:23 AM by mk49

[PVG]

220 IP? Heck I grew up in the Fergie Jenkins era - 300+ IP in 5 different seasons.
I think a possible solution would be to change pitcher usage.  
Instead of a starter who pitches 5+ innings, and then a passel of specialist relievers,
load the staff with 10-3 inning pitchers and a couple of fill-in specialists.  
Let them pitch every 3-4 games.  Maybe there would be less wear and tear  on the pitchers.
You're looking for 140 IP per pitcher maybe a bit less.
Plus the advantage of only having to go 1+ times thru the order.
Plus you don't need to have a such a large repetoire when you only face batters once.
 

[Stratos]

I think the pitch clock has likely had an affect on injuries too due to less recovery time between pitches and innings.

Agree with @Bertzwhere roster limits or other rules might have to come into play.  Something like 11 pitcher roster limit would help lengthen SP outings, but not sure if it would help relievers much.

The fix is probably coming from systemic aka rule changes rather than players or teams.   Players will always search for an advantage and take risks, like with PEDs.

I feel bad for the pitchers who feel the need to do this. At a certain point it becomes a bit of a workplace health and safety issue if you're being asked to slowly rip your tendons apart.

[Backtobanks]

8 hours ago, PVG said:

220 IP? Heck I grew up in the Fergie Jenkins era - 300+ IP in 5 different seasons.
I think a possible solution would be to change pitcher usage.  
Instead of a starter who pitches 5+ innings, and then a passel of specialist relievers,
load the staff with 10-3 inning pitchers and a couple of fill-in specialists.  
Let them pitch every 3-4 games.  Maybe there would be less wear and tear  on the pitchers.
You're looking for 140 IP per pitcher maybe a bit less.
Plus the advantage of only having to go 1+ times thru the order.
Plus you don't need to have a such a large repetoire when you only face batters once.
 

Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale, Nolan Ryan, Warren Spahn, etc.

[Rcal10]

There is just no comparison when looking at pitcher today versus the 70’s. Ferguson Jenkins had 7 years of 20 or more CG. Started 37 or more times , 9 years in a row. He actually completed 30 games one year. Over 270 innings 8 years in a row. I understand it was way different then. Guys weren’t throwing as hard. There were bullpen specialist, etc. But Fergie never got hurt. He pitched every 4th day, just like the guys BTB mentioned.
Bob Gibson pitched in 3 WS. In each one he pitched 3 games. In those 3 games he threw 81 innings. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Pendulums swing, but the idea of changing how pitchers are used is most likely the evolution. Starters and RP have already started to blend (opener.) Seems like something between starter and RP may be a sweet spot, 100- 120 innings? I dunno.

Maybe more yoga? 

 

[Outshined_One]

It's also worth remembering that for every Nolan Ryan, you had dozens of Mike Harkeys and Calvin Schiraldis, not to mention the hundreds of dudes who never made it through high school/college/the minors because their arms blew out with zero hope of recovery.

Those guys were the exceptions, not the rule.

It's also also worth remembering that the mound was lowered in 1968, resulting in a substantial offensive uptick.

[MidoreX]

19 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's also worth remembering that for every Nolan Ryan, you had dozens of Mike Harkeys and Calvin Schiraldis, not to mention the hundreds of dudes who never made it through high school/college/the minors because their arms blew out with zero hope of recovery.

Those guys were the exceptions, not the rule.

It's also also worth remembering that the mound was lowered in 1968, resulting in a substantial offensive uptick.

Pre 1968:

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It's also worth remembering that for every Nolan Ryan, you had dozens of Mike Harkeys and Calvin Schiraldis, not to mention the hundreds of dudes who never made it through high school/college/the minors because their arms blew out with zero hope of recovery.

Those guys were the exceptions, not the rule.

It's also also worth remembering that the mound was lowered in 1968, resulting in a substantial offensive uptick.

They were more the rule in the 60-70’s than the exception. Maybe not the degree the guys we are talking about, but there used to be 4 men rotations. Guys did start close to 40 games a year. 240 innings was not rare. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

Increase the weight of bats

Limit teams to 11 pitchers and allow less options

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

Increase the weight of bats

Limit teams to 11 pitchers and allow less options

How does limiting teams to 11 pitchers help pitchers health. I am not sure I understand that logic. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How does limiting teams to 11 pitchers help pitchers health. I am not sure I understand that logic. 

It would force pitchers to go longer and the way to do that would be to decrease stress and how hard you threw. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It would force pitchers to go longer and the way to do that would be to decrease stress and how hard you threw. 

But I doubt they would throw easier or softer. I think they go full throttle until their arms go down. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

How does limiting teams to 11 pitchers help pitchers health. I am not sure I understand that logic. 

I think it starts with making bats heavier. So pitchers won't have to "work" as hard  to get outs. But they would still over pitch unless they were limited in some way. Since all baseball equipment rule changes allows grandfather rules, it may take some years to implement. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

But I doubt they would throw easier or softer. I think they go full throttle until their arms go down. 

If you limit options, or limit the amount of pitchers you can have on your 40 man roster. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I think it starts with making bats heavier. So pitchers won't have to "work" as hard  to get outs. But they would still over pitch unless they were limited in some way. Since all baseball equipment rule changes allows grandfather rules, it may take some years to implement. 

I don’t think it is a good idea to make hitting harder. As it is, guys strike out 25% of the time.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

If you limit options, or limit the amount of pitchers you can have on your 40 man roster. 

I don’t see that stopping guys from throwing as hard as they can and not worry about injury. Do you think it’s will start throwing 120 pitches a game. Mis throws 104 mph and throws over 100 pitches. How is limiting pitchers going to help him? Any pitcher is going to do whatever is necessary to get a guy out. Worry about the next guy after you handle the guy up. I don’t think they will gear down.