Is modem pitcher training/philosophy still worth the costs?

[Stratos]

The explanation for the glut of Cubs pitcher injuries this year is " this is just the reality in 2026".  That's likely very true, but is it an acceptable excuse?  If we're doing something the rest of the league is doing, and the result is better velo/stuff and lower ERAs from pitchers but they're unable to stay off IL, then maybe it's  time to reevaluate the wisdom of that entire strategy.

At what point do the benefits not outweigh the costs?  Improving a pitcher's ERA by e.g half a run or a full run is great, but it's not useful if they aren't healthy and the roster is filled with replacement- level pitchers. 

Would we rather have Steele and Horton putting up e.g 3.80 ERAs instead of Cy Young. numbers but avoiding multiple elbow surgeries?

It makes sense for the pitchers with borderline talent to take the risk, but what about everyone else?  Will teams & players start taking the gas off the throttle a bit?

[Jason Ross]

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

They're becoming the running backs of baseball. 

But yea, there's no putting the cat back in the bag at this point. Velocity = Outs. Velocity training at younger ages is becoming more and more prevalent.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

They will not. Instead, expect teams to invest more lottery tickets into pitching. Especially with pitchers on pre-FA deals. "Churn and burn". 

They will gladly take a few years of elite performance for throwing them on an IL to replace them with the "next batch" of dudes who throw 98+mph. 

From a humanity standpoint, it's kind of gross. But sadly, that's sports. Humans are treated as commodities and players will take the risk for generational wealth. 

So is it inevitable that guys like Miz, Skenes, Skubal and Burns WILL get hurt. Not “if” but when they get hurt someone else will step in? I have noticed the Brewers let their young pitchers throw more than 100 pitches a game. Miz did it against the Cubs and just a few days ago Sproat threw 106. Will they be regretting this soon? 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So is it inevitable that guys like Miz, Skenes, Skubal and Burns WILL get hurt. Not “if” but when they get hurt someone else will step in? I have noticed the Brewers let their young pitchers throw more than 100 pitches a game. Miz did it against the Cubs and just a few days ago Sproat threw 106. Will they be regretting this soon? 

I think it's very likely, yes. Not *every* pitcher goes down with TJS, but the reality is the more people who throw the way these guys do, the more risk and potential damage they're doing. Some people are genetic freaks who won the lottery of throwing 99mph and can withstand that. Others not so much. 

Will they regret it? My guess is no, as long as they get paid. 

To put it another way; NFL players consistently put their brains in danger, I suspect MLB pitchers will value their arms less than their brains, all things considered. 

[Outshined_One]

It also helps to remember that, over the last 20 years, there have been massive advances in the Science of Baseball (for lack of a better term), particularly when it comes to hitting.  It's not just things like advanced stats (although those helped), where teams have figured out things like optimal swing paths and launch angles, and have also invested heavily in technological advances for developing hitters and gaining a competitive edge.  We've apparently gotten to the point where you can feed data about any pitcher in baseball into a pitching machine and have it mimic that pitcher reasonably well.

Velocity appears to be the only thing that consistently generates swing and miss.

[Bertz]

On a per pitch / per batter / per inning basis modern pitchers are much much much much much much much much better than what they were before all this pitch design stuff started getting figured out. 

The average 4S fastball this year is 94.6 MPH.  In 2008(first year of reliable pitch tracking) the average fastball was almost two full MPH slower at 91.8.  Hell this year in the Florida State League (Low A) the average four seam fastball is 93.4 MPH.  It's not just velo either!  Slider spin has risen from 2102 rpms in 2015 to 2435 this year.

So how do you reverse this trend?  It's going to take some sweeping systemic changes, and IMO I've yet to hear any that address everything.

1. You have to incentivize teams to prioritize length.  This actually feels pretty doable.  11 man staffs, the double hook, etc.  There are some levers to pull to help on this front, though no silver bullet IMO

2. You have to discourage roster churn on the team side.  This feels tougher.  There are things you can do (fewer annual options per player, longer IL minimums), but if you go too far the switch quickly flips to just making the problem worse.  You potentially encourage teams to run guys' arms through the meat grinder (fewer precautionary IL stints).  And does less minor league roster flexibility just lead to fewer options but way more guys getting DFAd?

3.  You have to convince players it's not worth it to train for stuff.  This feels, frankly, impossible?  Unless you have unilateral disarmament there are always going to be guys pursuing this route and ruining the value proposition of training for durability. Pitcher injuries didn't magically get invented 10 years ago, they just went into overdrive.  If you train for durability you're not automatically turning into Maddux.  Is making it 10% less likely you blow out your arm but 20% more likely you stall out at AAA a good trade?  Not really.  So how are we supposed to convince every pitcher in pro and college baseball to pursue it?

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I don't think there's anything baseball can really do to mitigate pitching injuries. The advancements are going to have to come from medicine to develop new procedures to shorten recovery time. Hopefully one day when a pitcher blows their UCL they're only out for a month or two instead of 18 months.

[mk49]

19 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Hopefully one day when a pitcher blows their UCL they're only out for a month or two instead of 18 months.

I hope so, too, but probably, not in my life time.😅

The current pitching trend/strategy won't change at least for a while.  It's hard to believe that Cease (or someone like him) never had a major injury, and that's very rare these days.

I think increase in the velo is something for sure, but guys like Steele and Boyd, who don't throw super hard also get injured.  So, no matter what the teams do, pitchers get hurt.  It's totally different from 20 years ago, when 220+ IP was kind of normal.

This year, I've been thinking (kinda negatively) that let young pitchers pitch as much as possible, while they can.  In a way, that's what the Brewers are doing.

Edited 8 hours ago by mk49

[PVG]

220 IP? Heck I grew up in the Fergie Jenkins era - 300+ IP in 5 different seasons.
I think a possible solution would be to change pitcher usage.  
Instead of a starter who pitches 5+ innings, and then a passel of specialist relievers,
load the staff with 10-3 inning pitchers and a couple of fill-in specialists.  
Let them pitch every 3-4 games.  Maybe there would be less wear and tear  on the pitchers.
You're looking for 140 IP per pitcher maybe a bit less.
Plus the advantage of only having to go 1+ times thru the order.
Plus you don't need to have a such a large repetoire when you only face batters once.
 

[Stratos]

I think the pitch clock has likely had an affect on injuries too due to less recovery time between pitches and innings.

Agree with @Bertzwhere roster limits or other rules might have to come into play.  Something like 11 pitcher roster limit would help lengthen SP outings, but not sure if it would help relievers much.

The fix is probably coming from systemic aka rule changes rather than players or teams.   Players will always search for an advantage and take risks, like with PEDs.

I feel bad for the pitchers who feel the need to do this. At a certain point it becomes a bit of a workplace health and safety issue if you're being asked to slowly rip your tendons apart.