Padres (TBD) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 6/29/26, 7:05pm

[sneakypower]

if we're being honest, pessimism was pretty well warranted a month ago given the sheer state of the pitching staff, but something happened since that was so far outside of the range of reasonable expectations, which is awesome but like i said

[Cubs420psd]

11 hours ago, Derwood said:

Of course the stupid Brewers won. Reds can't do anything right

They were up 3-0 in the 6th too.

 

horsefeathers worthless.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

if we're being honest, pessimism was pretty well warranted a month ago given the sheer state of the pitching staff, but something happened since that was so far outside of the range of reasonable expectations, which is awesome but like i said

There's definitely truth to that, but man was it frustrating that all the pessimism seemed the come in the form of like 'Has Ian Happ ever had an RBI in a Cubs uniform' or 'Nico is 17 for his last 71, which is a totally normal sample size'. The hitters are good, the pitching is bad. 

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, Cubs420psd said:

They were up 3-0 in the 6th too.

 

horsefeathers worthless.

I mean, the Brewers scored 5 runs on 7 hits.  They Brewered the Reds like they do almost everyone.  It's kind of amazing how good they are at stealing and taking every extra base they can.  They also get more garbage hits than any team in the history of the game and somehow seem to take advantage of almost all of them.  That double Frelick hit the other day on a ball 6" above the zone and 4" outside is something that just shouldn't happen as frequently as it does for them.

Edited 8 hours ago by mul21

[sneakypower]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There's definitely truth to that, but man was it frustrating that all the pessimism seemed the come in the form of like 'Has Ian Happ ever had an RBI in a Cubs uniform' or 'Nico is 17 for his last 71, which is a totally normal sample size'. The hitters are good, the pitching is bad. 

still in that last month, PCA has 18.2 offensive runs value, the rest of the team totaled -1.5

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

if we're being honest, pessimism was pretty well warranted a month ago given the sheer state of the pitching staff, but something happened since that was so far outside of the range of reasonable expectations, which is awesome but like i said

Damn near 20 war pace. Im not sure many players in history were even capable of that for 27 games. Its hard to fathom.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

still in that last month, PCA has 18.2 offensive runs value, the rest of the team totaled -1.5

Fair enough. I did last 30 days, which are slightly different results than the ones you're showing, but worth pointing out that the rest of the offense still put up roughly 3 wins when you factor in everything, which would be like 23rd in baseball, and presumably a good bit higher if you took out everyone else's best player. 

In that same stretch, the entire Cubs pitching staff has a -0.3 fWAR, worst in baseball.

[sneakypower]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Damn near 20 war pace. Im not sure many players in history were even capable of that for 27 games. Its hard to fathom.

currently sitting at 2.9 fWAR in June.. the only other position player to match that in any month over the last 10 years was Mookie Betts's August 2019– also 2.9 fWAR, but no player (Shohei double-counting aside) has exceeded that during that span

[Geographyhater8888]

22 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fair enough. I did last 30 days, which are slightly different results than the ones you're showing, but worth pointing out that the rest of the offense still put up roughly 3 wins when you factor in everything, which would be like 23rd in baseball, and presumably a good bit higher if you took out everyone else's best player. 

In that same stretch, the entire Cubs pitching staff has a -0.3 fWAR, worst in baseball.

And both Brown and Horton were very good, but their xFIP/ERAs were over a run or so higher than their actual numbers. This staff doesn’t need a Skubal, just anyone who can induce soft contact and minimize home runs. 
People would appreciate the streaky bats if they noticed how much they contribute to run prevention. The team ERA is .04 runs higher than Pittsburghs with a 7.5 gap in war. Impressive horsefeathers. So is allowing the most home runs with a 99 park factor.

Edited 8 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

And both Brown and Horton were very good, but their xFIP/ERAs were over a run or so higher than their actual numbers. This staff doesn’t need a Skubal, just anyone who can induce soft contact and minimize home runs. 
People would appreciate the streaky bats if they noticed how much they contribute to run prevention. The team ERA is .04 runs higher than Pittsburghs with a 7.5 gap in war. Impressive horsefeathers. 

I agree with their pitching need. Doesn’t have to be Skubal or Peralta. In fact, I hope it is someone with years of control left. Pay what is needed and get a guy now and later. Assuming next year isn’t another injury disaster, they have a chance at a solid staff if they bring someone like Detmers in and have him, Brown, Steele, Cabrera and sign a FA pitcher, as their rotation. Plus maybe Wiggins. The other option is, if Boyd stays healthy the rest of this year, offer him the QO. He would probably take it. But even if he did, I would still want a higher end FA pitcher added. It is even possible that at some point next year Horton appears. Even if it is in relief or multi inning appearances, not starting.
Maybe figure out a way to keep Sieya or Happ and let the system (and/or a one year mid level FA signing)fill in the other outfield spot and DH.                   If the rotation stays healthy next year that would be a huge upgrade to what they currently have. So a little drop in offense wouldn’t hurt. 

[PeanutPunch33]

1 hour ago, sneakypower said:

if we're being honest, pessimism was pretty well warranted a month ago given the sheer state of the pitching staff, but something happened since that was so far outside of the range of reasonable expectations, which is awesome but like i said

yeah, I was ready to riot when the Cubs were a .500 team on June 10th, having just lost to the Rockies.  And I think people were well justified in being upset.  

The combination of PCA's superstar breakout and the offense playing lights out has cured a lot of the frustration.  It just feels good to watch quality baseball again.  

[PeanutPunch33]

42 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with their pitching need. Doesn’t have to be Skubal or Peralta. In fact, I hope it is someone with years of control left. Pay what is needed and get a guy now and later. Assuming next year isn’t another injury disaster, they have a chance at a solid staff if they bring someone like Detmers in and have him, Brown, Steele, Cabrera and sign a FA pitcher, as their rotation. Plus maybe Wiggins. The other option is, if Boyd stays healthy the rest of this year, offer him the QO. He would probably take it. But even if he did, I would still want a higher end FA pitcher added. It is even possible that at some point next year Horton appears. Even if it is in relief or multi inning appearances, not starting.
Maybe figure out a way to keep Sieya or Happ and let the system (and/or a one year mid level FA signing)fill in the other outfield spot and DH.                   If the rotation stays healthy next year that would be a huge upgrade to what they currently have. So a little drop in offense wouldn’t hurt. 

If the Cubs don't want to break the bank for a guy (in terms of prospect capital), I can't see a better fit than Sonny Gray.  

He strikes me as the type of guy who would love Wrigley Field.  Mutual option at the end of the year so it doesn't have to be a rental. 

Edited 7 hours ago by PeanutPunch33

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with their pitching need. Doesn’t have to be Skubal or Peralta. In fact, I hope it is someone with years of control left. Pay what is needed and get a guy now and later. Assuming next year isn’t another injury disaster, they have a chance at a solid staff if they bring someone like Detmers in and have him, Brown, Steele, Cabrera and sign a FA pitcher, as their rotation. Plus maybe Wiggins. The other option is, if Boyd stays healthy the rest of this year, offer him the QO. He would probably take it. But even if he did, I would still want a higher end FA pitcher added. It is even possible that at some point next year Horton appears. Even if it is in relief or multi inning appearances, not starting.
Maybe figure out a way to keep Sieya or Happ and let the system (and/or a one year mid level FA signing)fill in the other outfield spot and DH.                   If the rotation stays healthy next year that would be a huge upgrade to what they currently have. So a little drop in offense wouldn’t hurt. 

They need someone at least on Peraltas level in my opinion. But we’ve seen how effective Brown and Horton have been behind the Cubs defense by simply limiting home runs and hard contact. They don’t need a perennial Cy young award finalist to limit runs at a high level, just an all star. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They need someone at least on Peraltas level in my opinion. But we’ve seen how effective Brown and Horton have been behind the Cubs defense by simply limiting home runs and hard contact. They don’t need a perennial Cy young award finalist to limit runs at a high level, just an all star. 

Cubs defense made Boyd an all star last year. 

[squally1313]

Just because the defense is good doesn't mean we shouldn't want guys who are good at pitching. Maybe don't play HR/FB roulette come September/October. 

[Bertz]

I'll be interested to see what the approach at the deadline is.  Last year after not being able to get the Marlins or Nats to play ball Jed went with a "depth-maxxing" play and punted on getting a playoff starter.  Does this year go similarly, or are there enough differences to lead to a different outcome?

- The team is more acutely in need of depth than it was last year.  That's not at all to say they couldn't use impact, but I think it's even harder to poo poo Soroka/Kittredge types

- Last year aside from the Twins the teams selling were all prolonged bottom feeders that had mostly been stripped for parts already.  This year I'm sure 1-2 of these teams will get back in it but the Mets, Tigers, Bosox, Jays, and Orioles are all at least 5 games under .500 and were very much not supposed to be.  The Angels and Giants appear to have truly bottomed out, and the Astros are 3 games under.  "How much of a hardass is Pete Pendix feeling like today?" is not as load bearing of a question on this year's market, at least as it sits today

- Last year Gore and Cabrera trades got punted to the offseason.  With the lockout honestly teams probably can't count on being able to get big deals like that done over the winter

- Last year's Cubs were slated to lose Tucker and a bunch of relievers to free agency, and that was it.  The scariness of the "roster cliff" has subsided to an extent, but that's very much not the case this winter.  Feels like this point combined with the one above should force some action on a cost controlled SP?

- Last summer Jed had Owen Caissie, the ~50th ranked prospect in baseball, more or less burning a hole in his pocket.  This team still has plenty of young position player depth, but no one as obvious as Caissie

I am in the spirit of plan for the worst and hope for the best expecting something in line with last summer, probably a bit better of a rental SP than Soroka both for availability reasons and because they don't need a Willi Castro.  But I do think things are materially different enough that we shouldn't just throw our hands up and say "if it didn't happen last year why would it this year?"

[squally1313]

49 minutes ago, Bertz said:

- Last summer Jed had Owen Caissie, the ~50th ranked prospect in baseball, more or less burning a hole in his pocket.  This team still has plenty of young position player depth, but no one as obvious as Caissie

It's not apples to apples but Rojas is sitting at 68 in the Pipeline update that dropped today basically doing a poor man's Matt Shaw at AA thing and there isn't a spot on the infield open until 2030. And if you're high on Rojas and think he can hit in a corner OF spot, then there's the 75th best prospect who came out of nowhere to do a poor man's Matt Shaw at AAA thing who is also blocked. And if you're high on both of them, then....there's Matt Shaw. 

The pocket might not be burning, but it's kinda bursting at the seams while we're filling up the other pocket with guys who haven't pitched effectively in the majors ever and/or since like 2022.  

[squally1313]

Like, I get that we need outfielders next year but unless I'm off and Michael Conforto has turned back into a multi year, 8 digit annually contract guy....isn't there a pretty good chance he can man a corner next year and hit at least as well as one of these converted infielders?

[PeanutPunch33]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Like, I get that we need outfielders next year but unless I'm off and Michael Conforto has turned back into a multi year, 8 digit annually contract guy....isn't there a pretty good chance he can man a corner next year and hit at least as well as one of these converted infielders?

Starting to think they should trade both of those guys+ for the best arm they can get (Joe Ryan?), resign Seiya for one corner outfield spot, then replace Happ with a guy like Randy Arozarena.  He's basically the same player but a pure righty to balance out the lineup.  

With the money they will free up, they could easily come away with a guy like Arozarena and Gausman or Gray next off season

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not apples to apples but Rojas is sitting at 68 in the Pipeline update that dropped today basically doing a poor man's Matt Shaw at AA thing and there isn't a spot on the infield open until 2030. And if you're high on Rojas and think he can hit in a corner OF spot, then there's the 75th best prospect who came out of nowhere to do a poor man's Matt Shaw at AAA thing who is also blocked. And if you're high on both of them, then....there's Matt Shaw. 

The pocket might not be burning, but it's kinda bursting at the seams while we're filling up the other pocket with guys who haven't pitched effectively in the majors ever and/or since like 2022.  

My point was less about not having resources to make moves, and more that we're not locked into one guy as our trade bait.  Like the team more or less had to move Caissie or Mo before this season, and it was pretty obvious they liked Mo more.

Now there's a good argument for moving on from a bunch of guys:

- Shaw and Rojas would have to play corner outfield where their bats aren't as fun

- Pedro is even less likely to have a COF caliber bat

- Mo's looking more and more like a catcher but now he has Ayers nipping at his heels

- What Ayers is doing is super exciting but is he just baseball Billy Madison?

- If you think Hartshorn is a 1B with good not great power you might never be able to sell higher 

- Is Kepley early career Steven Kwan or is he 2026 Steven Kwan, ditto above you might never be able to sell higher

This might be a positive.  If let's say half the league didn't like Caissie, then that's half the league you can't get a controllable SP trade going with.  But at the same time if we treat MLB pipeline grades as gospel we probably don't have anyone except Shaw as valuable as singularly valuable as Caissie was last summer, and Shaw's presumably our starting RFer next year so moving him would be a Peter/Paul deal.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

My point was less about not having resources to make moves, and more that we're not locked into one guy as our trade bait.  Like the team more or less had to move Caissie or Mo before this season, and it was pretty obvious they liked Mo more.

Now there's a good argument for moving on from a bunch of guys:

- Shaw and Rojas would have to play corner outfield where their bats aren't as fun

- Pedro is even less likely to have a COF caliber bat

- Mo's looking more and more like a catcher but now he has Ayers nipping at his heels

- What Ayers is doing is super exciting but is he just baseball Billy Madison?

- If you think Hartshorn is a 1B with good not great power you might never be able to sell higher 

- Is Kepley early career Steven Kwan or is he 2026 Steven Kwan, ditto above you might never be able to sell higher

This might be a positive.  If let's say half the league didn't like Caissie, then that's half the league you can't get a controllable SP trade going with.  But at the same time if we treat MLB pipeline grades as gospel we probably don't have anyone except Shaw as valuable as singularly valuable as Caissie was last summer, and Shaw's presumably our starting RFer next year so moving him would be a Peter/Paul deal.

Yeah these are good points and I think we're mostly on the same page. I think your initial guess is probably right in that I should expect disappointment. I keep going back and getting frustrated by those comments about the bye and how us clearly not in the running may drive a lack of impactful moves. I get it from a math perspective, but also if you're going to insist on us being top 2-3 in the league by July to make a big swing, maybe don't go into every year with a 'well the bullpen will hopefully figure itself out by August' mentality.