Cubs (Imanaga) vs Cardinals (Pallante): 5/29/26, 6:15pm

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I don't think I said that.  I just said Amaya gives them better chance.  There's nothing 100%  in baseball.

I think the sample sizes are too small to be very meaningful at this point.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Yes, I agree with you.  That's why I said "most likely" and "Ben will pitch well" Those don't mean the Cubs will win.  We'll see how it goes.  We all want to see them win.

And, I'd be super happy, if I'm wrong, and Shota pitches great today.

You're missing the point.  Shota not having good velocity or being able to locate his fastball or not hang his splitter are completely independent of who's catching.  

[Neuby]

17 minutes ago, Derwood said:

"We'll lose if Kelly starts" is not a point that needs to be made, no

you have 88,000 posts maybe just maybe you aren't the guy to be telling other posters when a point needs to be made? 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

Saying catcher ERA is pointless is comical.  Make sure to watch the 2016 stuff Theo and Jed talk about how they saw surplus value in Ross because of catcher ERA, while others teams saw an overpay.

Yeah, I cited that specific example for a reason.  He absolutely had more value to the Cubs than he would have other teams for several reasons.  Also, Jed went out and got Carson Kelly, so he's likely looking at very similar things as he did when bringing Ross in.  This is just a dumb argument to try to defend when we're talking about the specific guys on the Cubs roster.  In general, yeah, there are absolutely guys who will give the pitcher a better chance at success, but trying to make that case with Kelly vs. Amaya is silly when this FO picked both of those guys.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Saying catcher ERA is pointless is comical.  Make sure to watch the 2016 stuff Theo and Jed talk about how they saw surplus value in Ross because of catcher ERA, while others teams saw an overpay.

The team did not choose to sign Ross because he had a sparkling catcher's ERA come on now be serious

[Neuby]

Just now, mul21 said:

Yeah, I cited that specific example for a reason.  He absolutely had more value to the Cubs than he would have other teams for several reasons.  Also, Jed went out and got Carson Kelly, so he's likely looking at very similar things as he did when bringing Ross in.  This is just a dumb argument to try to defend when we're talking about the specific guys on the Cubs roster.  In general, yeah, there are absolutely guys who will give the pitcher a better chance at success, but trying to make that case with Kelly vs. Amaya is silly when this FO picked both of those guys.

the front picked both of those guys? huh 

The front office picked up Miggy too. It's not about Miggy vs Ross or Kelly vs Amaya.  If a guy throws better to a certain guy it's not a slight against the other catcher. The Red Sox tried this last season doing with Wong and Bello.  

[Neuby]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

The team did not choose to sign Ross because he had a sparkling catcher's ERA come on now be serious

Direct quotes on how intangibles and stats like catchers ERA along with many beers and a night out led to Ross being a Cub.  Did you think they were looking at his WAR?OPS?

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Saying catcher ERA is pointless is comical.  Make sure to watch the 2016 stuff Theo and Jed talk about how they saw surplus value in Ross because of catcher ERA, while others teams saw an overpay.

Can you link to them specifically discussing catcher ERA?

To me, David Ross somehow producing an above average offensive season at age 39 colors the discussion about his overall value, but the main value of David Ross was 'Jon Lester, who is an absolutely excellent pitcher in every sense, wanted David Ross as his catcher, and we were willing to put up with that in order to get Jon Lester, excellent pitcher'

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

Direct quotes on how intangibles and stats like catchers ERA along with many beers and a night out led to Ross being a Cub.  Did you think they were looking at his WAR?OPS?

I'd love to see these direct quotes.  But they signed Ross for three reasons

1.  They needed a backup catcher and Ross was a fine one (you scoff about WAR but 5.2 in 483 PAs his prior 3 seasons)

2.  Montero was a lefty so a righty who mashes lefties was a good compliment

3.  Ross was buddies with Lester and they wanted to roll out the red carpet for Jon

[Brian707]

It appears the Cardinals are starting to regress

 Hopefully it results in at least 2 Cub wins this weekend 

[Jason Ross]

The Hardball Times has an article discussing catcher ERA. Here's the link. Below, I'll also post the conclusion from the study as well as a TL;DR.

Quote

Catchers have a significant impact on the performance of the pitchers they catch. We need several years of data to have a reliable measure of this effect. In the future, studies like mine will probably be obsolete as the data available from PITCHf/x is more precise. Whatever the data source used, it is important that we recognize the value that outstanding game calling catchers can provide, and to understand the spread of talent among catcher skill so decisions can be balanced between a catcher’s defensive and offensive ability.

TLDR: Catcher's matter, but need tons of data for that to matter. 

How does this deal with the discussion at hand? Well considering we're talking data far smaller than the sample size needed for this, it's essentially meaningless. Not all data is useful. In this instance, Amaya or Kelly's ERA when Shota pitches is not what we should be using.

[Gjfificifjdej]

Its not Carson Kelly’s catching that is to blame for the Cubs willingly entering a major league season with the atrocities of Taillon and Imanaga on their roster. 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, Neuby said:

Direct quotes on how intangibles and stats like catchers ERA along with many beers and a night out led to Ross being a Cub.  Did you think they were looking at his WAR?OPS?

Ross is a really bad example for your argument. No matter what the front office said, we all know after the fact that Ross was signed because Sir Yips-a-lot and needed his teddy bear to feel secure and make good pitches. 

[cl smooth]

11 minutes ago, Bull said:

Sir Yips-a-lot

 

[Bull]

3 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

 

Yes. An amazing pitcher who was obviously a head case. Him needing a personal catcher is not justification for catcher ERA in general. 

 

The fact that you knew who I meant says something. 

Edited 10 hours ago by Bull

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Are personal catchers a thing anymore? I think they went extinct and I didn't really think about it until now

[Bertz]

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

if kelly starts ur in trouble

[mk49]

22 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

if kelly starts ur in trouble

But, he hits better, though.😁

FWIW, I don't dislike Kelly.  I actually like him quite a bit, and I'm hoping the Cubs will keep him for two more years or so.

Edited 9 hours ago by mk49

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Its not Carson Kelly’s catching that is to blame for the Cubs willingly entering a major league season with the atrocities of Taillon and Imanaga on their roster. 

[Stratos]

Imagine where our rotation would be if Imanaga and Brown pitched like last year.

[mk49]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Imagine where our rotation would be if Imanaga and Brown pitched like last year.

Ben is the biggest surprise for this season, so far.  I've always liked him, and hoped he'd get better.  But, I didn't expect he'd be this good, even after he pitched well in the ST. 

Edited 8 hours ago by mk49

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Its not Carson Kelly’s catching that is to blame for the Cubs willingly entering a major league season with the atrocities of Taillon and Imanaga on their roster. 

Now Imanaga on the roster is an atrocity? 

[BKHoo]

How a catcher calls/catches a game with certain pitchers absolutely matters. Every team tracks it. Some teams pair up favorable partnerships extensively.  

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

How a catcher calls/catches a game with certain pitchers absolutely matters. Every team tracks it. Some teams pair up favorable partnerships extensively.  

This is Shota's 12th start and 9th caught by Kelly.  I think that likely tells us more than catcher's ERA.