Trade deadline target

[PeanutPunch33]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The Cubs are 6th in runs this year. They are 6th in wOBA. They are 7th in xwOBA. They are 6th in wRC. 

Kyle Tucker has taken 7% of the Cubs PAs since the beginning of 2025. If you think his whopping 136 wRC in 7% of the plate appearances is propping up an otherwise bad offense, I don't really know what to tell you, math wise. 

 

I'll trust the numbers but I personally think there's a disconnect between the numbers and what this offense actually is.  They don't have a good enough leadoff hitter, they don't have a guy who can (individually) slug at an elite level.  They don't have any young exciting prospects on the way.  They don't have any stars except maybe PCA.  It's just a very bland offense.  

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I'll trust the numbers but I personally think there's a disconnect between the numbers and what this offense actually is.  They don't have a good enough leadoff hitter, they don't have a guy who can (individually) slug at an elite level.  They don't have any young exciting prospects on the way.  They don't have any stars except maybe PCA.  It's just a very bland offense.  

The disconnect is between things you find aesthetically pleasing and things that impact results.

[PeanutPunch33]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The disconnect is between things you find aesthetically pleasing and things that impact results.

If Judge got hurt tomorrow, the Yankees go from being WS contenders to a horrible team.  If Kyle Tucker didn't get hurt last year in June/July and his performance falling off a cliff, the Cubs could have made a deep playoff run.

I think it gets underestimated how much that one player impacts the whole team.  Now, they might not even be a playoff team despite adding that so-called star pitcher in the off-season and replacing Tucker with Bregman.

Need to be able to hit home runs in October.  It's not just about aesthetics.  If Bregman lived up to what he was supposed to be, this wouldn't be my position.  

Also, let's see what this 6th best offense looks like in a month or two.  Last year, it all fell apart in the 2nd half.  I hope that doesn't happen again but if it does, perhaps more people will agree with me on the need for more talent in the lineup.  

Edited 19 hours ago by PeanutPunch33

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

If Judge got hurt tomorrow, the Yankees go from being WS contenders to a horrible team.  If Kyle Tucker didn't get hurt last year in June/July and his performance falling off a cliff, the Cubs could have made a deep playoff run.

I think it gets underestimated how much that one player impacts the whole team.  Now, they might not even be a playoff team despite adding that so-called star pitcher in the off-season and replacing Tucker with Bregman.

Need to be able to hit home runs in October.  It's not just about aesthetics.  If Bregman lived up to what he was supposed to be, this wouldn't be my position.  

Wait, you think Tucker getting hurt in the middle of the season affected the Cubs playoff performance more than their best pitcher getting hurt and Shota being terrible?  Yikes.

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Wait, you think Tucker getting hurt in the middle of the season affected the Cubs playoff performance more than their best pitcher getting hurt and Shota being terrible?  Yikes.

Did the Cubs not win a playoff series last year despite that so called terrible rotation and Shota playing awful?  Whereas they got nothing from Tucker in the 2nd half of the year.  So yes, I do believe that their best player last year getting hurt made more of a difference than Shota being terrible.  

You also fail to consider that since then, the Cubs have developed Brown into an ace, acquired another power arm in Cabrera, and are getting "their best pitcher" back later in the year.  The rotation is fine when healthy.  

[squally1313]

1. I think, and I don't mean this in an overly critical way, there's a disconnect between what you expect an offense to look like/produce, and what the baseline is for an above average offense in 2026. League average slugging is below .400. It's just not the game any of us grew up with.

2. For the star category, since you acknowledged PCA, which is mostly defense driven...he's 8th in fWAR since 2025, right above Soto. Hoerner is 22nd. Busch is 39th. Bregman 44th. Happ 46th. Dansby 47th. Stars? No. But I think you'd be really hard pressed to find another group that can put 6 guys in the top 50. Actually I just did it, we're 2 higher than any other team (Yankees and Dodgers with 4). 6 teams have 2 guys in the top 20 (Judge/Bellinger, Witt/Garcia, Raleigh/Julio, Ohtani/Pages, Carroll/Perdomo, Soto/Lindor). Naming stars in hindsight is easy, you have the memories. Right now, we absolutely match up.

3. If Judge gets hurt, the Yankees go from a 95 win team to a 90 win team. 'Horrible' is an extreme over exaggeration. He also slugs 137 points lower in the playoffs.

4. No one has ever called Edward Cabrera a star and if they did they were very mistaken. We traded the 65th prospect in baseball for a starter with multiple years of control. 

Edited 19 hours ago by squally1313

[Outshined_One]

I mean, if you want to get a bench bat, sure, go nuts, but almost all of the realistic starting-quality available names at 2B/SS/3B/OF are marginal upgrades from the Cubs' current starters, with the *possible* exception of Yordan Alvarez, and even assuming he is available, the Cubs don't have the resources to pull off a trade for him and also get a good quality SP.

I get the desire to build an uber offense that isn't subject to slumps the way the current team is.  However, this team's pitching is atrocious, even if you think Shota and Taillon are due for a turnaround and Boyd/Cabrera will come back healthy at full strength, and the Cubs are much better off dedicating their limited resources to fixing it.

[PeanutPunch33]

Fair points.  I acknowledge that I'm going against the grain here and my opinion is not what the majority think.  

I can get behind any move they make as long as it helps the team significantly.  

^ If a guy like Alvarez is actually made available and the Cubs don't make a serious effort to get him, though, I would be pretty disappointed.  Guys like that don't come along often. 

Edited 19 hours ago by PeanutPunch33

[mul21]

14 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Did the Cubs not win a playoff series last year despite that so called terrible rotation and Shota playing awful?  Whereas they got nothing from Tucker in the 2nd half of the year.  So yes, I do believe that their best player last year getting hurt made more of a difference than Shota being terrible.  

You also fail to consider that since then, the Cubs have developed Brown into an ace, acquired another power arm in Cabrera, and are getting "their best pitcher" back later in the year.  The rotation is fine when healthy.  

Tucker played in the playoff series they lost.  Horton did not.  I'm not sure how you can say with a straight face Tucker's midseason injury affected the outcome more.  They also won a 3 game series that left them starting their best remaining pitcher on short rest because they were an arm short and I'd bet they wouldn't have won a 5 game series against the Padres either last year. 

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

If Judge got hurt tomorrow, the Yankees go from being WS contenders to a horrible team.  If Kyle Tucker didn't get hurt last year in June/July and his performance falling off a cliff, the Cubs could have made a deep playoff run.

I think it gets underestimated how much that one player impacts the whole team.  Now, they might not even be a playoff team despite adding that so-called star pitcher in the off-season and replacing Tucker with Bregman.

Need to be able to hit home runs in October.  It's not just about aesthetics.  If Bregman lived up to what he was supposed to be, this wouldn't be my position.  

Also, let's see what this 6th best offense looks like in a month or two.  Last year, it all fell apart in the 2nd half.  I hope that doesn't happen again but if it does, perhaps more people will agree with me on the need for more talent in the lineup.  

Where is your line drawn between star bat and pretty good bat? I mean you keep using Tucker as an example as a star bat, yet use Bregman as a weak replacement for him. Their career numbers are pretty close. Cubs have several bats that can be a star bat looking back at this team years down the road. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Bregman is on pace for pretty close to the same bWAR that Tucker put up last year and he hasn't even had a hot streak yet. Zero reason to write him off

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Bregman is on pace for pretty close to the same bWAR that Tucker put up last year and he hasn't even had a hot streak yet. Zero reason to write him off

He is also pretty similar to Tucker this year. Yet one is a star and the other is money wasted by the Cubs🤷

[We Got The Whole 9]

So Detmers is probably gonna be a hot name at the TDL. His ERA is currently a run and a half higher than his FIP. Soriano too, although more obvious as his stats are good across the board. I wonder if Jed could get one of these plus Joyce, who is currently about to begin rehab. 

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

So Detmers is probably gonna be a hot name at the TDL. His ERA is currently a run and a half higher than his FIP. Soriano too, although more obvious as his stats are good across the board. I wonder if Jed could get one of these plus Joyce, who is currently about to begin rehab. 

We know the Angels like close to the majors prospects too so if you're wanting to use the Shaws and Alcantaras of the world instead of the Hartshorns and Conrads they're probably a good partner.

[PeanutPunch33]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Where is your line drawn between star bat and pretty good bat? I mean you keep using Tucker as an example as a star bat, yet use Bregman as a weak replacement for him. Their career numbers are pretty close. Cubs have several bats that can be a star bat looking back at this team years down the road. 

My definition of superstar is any player who everyone expects to have a .900+ OPS bat going into the year.  I'm guessing that checks out to basically 10-15 guys across the league in any given year.  Acuna, Harper, Schwarber, Judge, Alvarez, Soto, and so on.  

There are a ton of very good hitters, the Cubs have several of them, but there's a noticeable difference between a guy like Michael Busch and a guy like Bryce Harper.  If the Cubs win the WS this year I don't think anyone is calling Michael Busch a superstar if he goes back to a low .800 OPS or high .700 something OPS next year.  It's got to be year-over-year dominance.

Edited 17 hours ago by PeanutPunch33

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

My definition of superstar is any player who everyone expects to have a .900+ OPS bat going into the year.  I'm guessing that checks out to basically 10-15 guys across the league in any given year.  Acuna, Harper, Schwarber, Judge, Alvarez, Soto, and so on.  

There are a ton of very good hitters, the Cubs have several of them, but there's a noticeable difference between a guy like Michael Busch and a guy like Bryce Harper.  If the Cubs win the WS this year I don't think anyone is calling Michael Busch a superstar if he goes back to a low .800 OPS or high .700 something OPS next year.  It's got to be year-over-year dominance.

6 (qualified) hitters had a .900 OPS last year. 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

6 (qualified) hitters had a .900 OPS last year. 

And we don’t have multiple of them. What the hell jed 

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

1. I think, and I don't mean this in an overly critical way, there's a disconnect between what you expect an offense to look like/produce, and what the baseline is for an above average offense in 2026. League average slugging is below .400. It's just not the game any of us grew up with.

 

It sure isn't the game that we grew up with.  Mediocrity has overtaken stars - batters who hit .240 that strikeout twice a game are considered stars because they hit 25 HRS and pitchers who throw 5 innings per start are considered Cy Young candidates.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

It sure isn't the game that we grew up with.  Mediocrity has overtaken stars - batters who hit .240 that strikeout twice a game are considered stars because they hit 25 HRS and pitchers who throw 5 innings per start are considered Cy Young candidates.

This explains a lot

[Derwood]

52 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

My definition of superstar is any player who everyone expects to have a .900+ OPS bat going into the year.  I'm guessing that checks out to basically 10-15 guys across the league in any given year.  Acuna, Harper, Schwarber, Judge, Alvarez, Soto, and so on.  

There are a ton of very good hitters, the Cubs have several of them, but there's a noticeable difference between a guy like Michael Busch and a guy like Bryce Harper.  If the Cubs win the WS this year I don't think anyone is calling Michael Busch a superstar if he goes back to a low .800 OPS or high .700 something OPS next year.  It's got to be year-over-year dominance.

Harper had an .844 OPS last year.

Busch had an .866

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

My definition of superstar is any player who everyone expects to have a .900+ OPS bat going into the year.  I'm guessing that checks out to basically 10-15 guys across the league in any given year.  Acuna, Harper, Schwarber, Judge, Alvarez, Soto, and so on.  

There are a ton of very good hitters, the Cubs have several of them, but there's a noticeable difference between a guy like Michael Busch and a guy like Bryce Harper.  If the Cubs win the WS this year I don't think anyone is calling Michael Busch a superstar if he goes back to a low .800 OPS or high .700 something OPS next year.  It's got to be year-over-year dominance.

You say this but when you were making your point if each team who wins a WA has at least two of these guys. I believe you called Austin Riley a superstar. Pretty sure he doesn’t meet your definition of a superstar. Teams don’t need superstars. They need guys to have big years. And the Cubs have several guys that could have big years. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

My definition of superstar is any player who everyone expects to have a .900+ OPS bat going into the year.  I'm guessing that checks out to basically 10-15 guys across the league in any given year.  Acuna, Harper, Schwarber, Judge, Alvarez, Soto, and so on.  

There are a ton of very good hitters, the Cubs have several of them, but there's a noticeable difference between a guy like Michael Busch and a guy like Bryce Harper.  If the Cubs win the WS this year I don't think anyone is calling Michael Busch a superstar if he goes back to a low .800 OPS or high .700 something OPS next year.  It's got to be year-over-year dominance.

Total team stats are what matters with position players.  It doesn't matter how that's distributed amongst players on the team.  Unless you have a study that says differently.

Also,  PCA is a superstar.  He's worth 5-6 wins.  He's at least as good as Tucker and probably better.

Edited 13 hours ago by Stratos

[Geographyhater8888]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Total team stats are what matters with position players.  It doesn't matter how that's distributed amongst players on the team.  Unless you have a study that says differently.

Also,  PCA is a superstar.  He's worth 5-6 wins.  He's at least as good as Tucker and probably better.

I think the only difference is the range of outcomes. A top heavy lineup has more boom or bust potential than a deep 1-9 despite an equivalent runs/game over a full 162 game season. It makes a team more dangerous in a playoff series but just as likely to fall flat on their ass. 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I'll trust the numbers but I personally think there's a disconnect between the numbers and what this offense actually is.  They don't have a good enough leadoff hitter, they don't have a guy who can (individually) slug at an elite level.  They don't have any young exciting prospects on the way.  They don't have any stars except maybe PCA.  It's just a very bland offense.  

Yeah. They’re not as potent as the Dodgers or Yankees. The Cubs are a Cy Young winner in the rotation, a healthy and healed Steele and Horton just to be safe and even a silver slugger Dh bat away from being more than heavy underdogs against the Dodgers in a postseason series. That’s not happening. But when a top 6 scoring offense isn’t good to ensure a wildcard spot, that’s more of an indictment on a horrific pitching staff than an imperfect but productive offense. 
 

Acquiring a starting pitcher should be the only focus right now.
 

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You say this but when you were making your point if each team who wins a WA has at least two of these guys. I believe you called Austin Riley a superstar. Pretty sure he doesn’t meet your definition of a superstar. Teams don’t need superstars. They need guys to have big years. And the Cubs have several guys that could have big years. 

Freeman and a Braves core that won between 88-104 games from 2018-24, Sale, Martinez, Boggarts and Betts on Boston, Soto, Rendon, Turner, Scherzer on Washington, Verlander, Alvarez, Altuve and Bregman on Houston, Texas is the one team where you can definitely say caught lightening in a bottle thanks to career years from Seager, Semian and Garcia, I don’t have to explain the Dodgers or the 2016 Cubs.  This has definitely been a phenomenon over the last decade.

There has to something to Milwaukee turtling in the playoffs despite 90+ wins every year.

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888