BREAKING: Cubs Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman to Five-Year Deal

[Geographyhater8888]

27 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Alcantara has over 500 PA's in Triple-A. That's not so much he has to promote, but he's also seen plenty of MiLB pitching. Getting him curated PAs and allowing him to be the 4th OF'er, mostly to hit LHP is a pretty soft landing spot in MLB. 

They'll be fine with him in that role and it'll be good for his development.

What are your thoughts on why Bregman was Jed’s guy? 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What are your thoughts on why Bregman was Jed’s guy? 

Combination of:
1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 
2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 
3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.

[Bertz]

6 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Perhaps TT should grace us with his own study on the subject, then. Because there isn't a single thing besides chatGPT showing anything close to a $10M price tag per WAR outside of a select number of dominant relievers.

Even a unicorn like Ohtani came in at $9.5M.

Pete Alonso just got 155 million for 10.6 projected WAR 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peter-out-orioles-swipe-alonso-from-mets/

Kyle Schwarber got 150 million for 5.8 projected WAR

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/old-blood-phillies-re-sign-kyle-schwarber/

Either way it would be silly to do your "this year's projected WAR divided by salary" thing since that completely ignores the impacts of different ages and contract lengths.   No one has a study showing why that's not how it works because it's such a silly premise no one has bothered to refute it.

Just reflexively hating everything doesn't automatically make you smart.  Stuff like this shows us why you talk a lot of horsefeathers but never actually bring ideas to the table.

[Bull]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Pete Alonso just got 155 million for 10.6 projected WAR 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peter-out-orioles-swipe-alonso-from-mets/

Kyle Schwarber got 150 million for 5.8 projected WAR

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/old-blood-phillies-re-sign-kyle-schwarber/

Either way it would be silly to do your "this year's projected WAR divided by salary" thing since that completely ignores the impacts of different ages and contract lengths.   No one has a study showing why that's not how it works because it's such a silly premise no one has bothered to refute it.

Just reflexively hating everything doesn't automatically make you smart.  Stuff like this shows us why you talk a lot of horsefeathers but never actually bring ideas to the table.

While I agree with you, this is somewhat mitigated by inflation. The WAR diminishes with age, but so does the value of each dollar. 

Which is part of why the overall points stands: dollars/WAR go up with time. 

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Combination of:
1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 
2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 
3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.

This is what came to mind. Jed loves year to year to consistently and players who are well rounded hitters and fielders. He’s the type I’d bet Jed sees as getting a sure handed return on his investment.

The rest makes sense too. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Bull said:

While I agree with you, this is somewhat mitigated by inflation. The WAR diminishes with age, but so does the value of each dollar. 

Which is part of why the overall points stands: dollars/WAR go up with time. 

Yeah there tend to be unsaid assumptions around inflation included.  Here an older one from before long term projections were so ubiquitous and they just did the "lop off half a WAR per year" move but otherwise has it laid out nicely.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/linear-dollars-per-win-again/

Over the last 15 years this approach hasn't really changed much, mainly the inputs have gotten better. 

[CubUgly]

9 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Holy horsefeathers / 35 per year ?

Exactly, I don't think very many of us at all believed they actually would including me.  Bit of an overpay?  Maybe, but sometimes you have to do that to get meaningful piece to play a title.

I think Bregman makes us better, makes our bench better by allowing Shaw to play a utility role, already a significant upgrade from any of the bench pieces from last year.

Jed obviously likes him, he offered him a deal last year that he had to ask Tom permission to give last year and didn't get him.  Their projections indicate he'll age well.  I certainly hope so.  But I'm excited our front office stepped up. 

[Rcal10]

As it stands right now it looks like Mo is the DH. Which would then have an all right handed butting bench. Either catcher, Alcantara, Shaw, and Austin.wouls be the bench. Does anyone think that will change? And, if so, where and by adding who? 
I really hope they hold on to both Nico and Shaw. This team is loaded, if they do.

[Geographyhater8888]

6 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Exactly, I don't think very many of us at all believed they actually would including me.  Bit of an overpay?  Maybe, but sometimes you have to do that to get meaningful piece to play a title.

I think Bregman makes us better, makes our bench better by allowing Shaw to play a utility role, already a significant upgrade from any of the bench pieces from last year.

Jed obviously likes him, he offered him a deal last year that he had to ask Tom permission to give last year and didn't get him.  Their projections indicate he'll age well.  I certainly hope so.  But I'm excited our front office stepped up. 

One thing you have to give Jed is he rarely if ever gives out bad multi year contracts. I trust his judgement on this especially with how risk averse he is. And as someone who’s criticized for never “getting his guy” he finally muscled up.

Edited January 11 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

As it stands right now it looks like Mo is the DH. Which would then have an all right handed butting bench. Either catcher, Alcantara, Shaw, and Austin.wouls be the bench. Does anyone think that will change? And, if so, where and by adding who? 
I really hope they hold on to both Nico and Shaw. This team is loaded, if they do.

I do not think that will change. I think the roster, as of today, is essentially done. They will probably do their "bring in a few random relievers on MiLB deals" thing between now and camp, but I also think "what you see is what you get". 

On the bench, I think they will be fine being that RHH heavy. Their lineup has a lot of left handed hitters that will likely sit against LHP - PCA, Busch, Ballesteros are all likely to see far less playing time against lefties. On those days, the Cubs will likely have a lot of left handed hitters on the bench. So I think it's a feature, not a bug.

[Rcal10]

I think this also shows we were way more interested in Tucker than the Cubs were. I do think that when he was traded here the plan was for him to love the city and the Cubs sign him long term. They have proved they will pay a guy until 37 years old with this Bregman deal. So, IMO, I think they would have done 10 years with Tucker. I think what happened was the Cubs ended up not really liking Tucker. I have no idea why. But, IMO, they like Bregman’s make up better. What happened last year while the Cubs were trying to get Tucker to love the city was the Cubs decided they didn’t love Tucker. Right or wrong on the Cubs part, I don’t think money or years bothered the Cubs with Tucker. I think Tucker bothered the Cubs. 

[Bertz]

23 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Combination of:
1. Internally they view him as someone who should age well. He's got a strong mix of bat-to-ball skills, glove skills, and isn't someone solely reliant on bat speed. 
2. It's clear that the Cubs view him as a culture guy - the Cubs are an organization that clearly cares about the culture. It's why Turner was around, it's why they brought in Craig Counsell, and Bregman seems to be that guy too. 
3. A five-year-commitment isn't forever. It's a decently long contract but it fits into a roster churn. Also, when Bregman's deal is up, that's when players like PCA, Shaw, Horton will all be FA.

I think this is all right, I'll also say 2 helps feed into 1.  No one can cheat death but if you're going to hitch your wagon to a guy someone who is exceptionally smart and exceptionally driven is more likely to hold onto their production for as long as their body possibly allows.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think this is all right, I'll also say 2 helps feed into 1.  No one can cheat death but if you're going to hitch your wagon to a guy someone who is exceptionally smart and exceptionally driven is more likely to hold onto their production for as long as their body possibly allows.

Absolutely. It feels like Bregman is Hoyer's "Jon Lester" in a lot of ways. I don't think they're exactly 1:1. but Lester was brought in around the same age/length-in-commitment not only to be an important player, but that Theo (as an aside, typing "Epstein" only here feels weird now-a-days and I didn't realize that until I tried it initially) saw him as the "culture component" to his roster. 

[Geographyhater8888]

You can pencil in at least 3.5 more wins from third base in 26. Last year Cubs third baseman had a cumulative 0 fWAR.

Edited January 11 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I do not think that will change. I think the roster, as of today, is essentially done. They will probably do their "bring in a few random relievers on MiLB deals" thing between now and camp, but I also think "what you see is what you get". 

On the bench, I think they will be fine being that RHH heavy. Their lineup has a lot of left handed hitters that will likely sit against LHP - PCA, Busch, Ballesteros are all likely to see far less playing time against lefties. On those days, the Cubs will likely have a lot of left handed hitters on the bench. So I think it's a feature, not a bug.

I wouldn’t have a problem with this bench either. Just asking because I have see. Others expecting to add or change something. I think the team is set. And a very good team all around. 

[Jason Ross]

Another thing to point out: Alex Bregman's 3.5 fWAR (in 114 games) would have been the second best fWAR season of Kyle Schwarber's career, and tied for third for Pete Alonso. Bregman's 4.2 fWAR the year prior would have been better than anything Pete Alonso has ever put up. 

Kyle Schwarber did have a really great 2026 but it feels like a realistic possibility that it's a clear-and-away "career year" type of a season, where as Bregman is a very consistent mid-4's. 

Alex Bregman is a really good baseball player and very well rounded. He won't hit as many home runs as those guys, but he's a damn good player and the Cubs got much better last night.

[Jason Ross]

Per Rosenthal: Deferrals are included and present day value is lower than $35m AAV. We don't have full details yet but these will be paid out "a few years after" his contract ends with the Cubs. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Having better depth options and a healthy Assad+Cabrera means 15 less starts from Ben Brown. Also a major addition by subtraction. Unless anyone believes he was worth 1 fWAR.

[CubUgly]

38 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I really hope they hold on to both Nico and Shaw. This team is loaded, if they do.

I do to.  There seems to be a segment of fans who think this means one of them is certain to be traded now.  I don't want that to happen.  

[BKHoo]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Shocked they opened up the books.   This is obviously very good for next year but IMO the AAV is too high.  I don't think the contract is very good over the longterm.  He's 32 y/o to start the year.  They should be happy if they get two 4 WAR years the first 2 seasons then declines.

I also don't like the fact he's been a RHB in Houston and Boston, his power numbers have probably been inflated a bit.  You're also bringing a known cheater into the clubhouse.

The Cubs could have kept Cam Smith at 3B and used the Bregman money to sign Tucker longterm, and stick Shaw at 2b when Nico leaves.

Go 2026 Cubs!!

How do they keep Can Smith when he was an integral want by the Astros in the trade?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, CubUgly said:

I do to.  There seems to be a segment of fans who think this means one of them is certain to be traded now.  I don't want that to happen.  

I don't think it'll happen at this point. In fact, I don't even think it makes sense. What exactly would you trade them for? Nico Hoerner on an expiring contract probably won't bring back a lot - his glove-heavy value probably doesn't help his trade value. And the Cubs already made their big SP splash trade.

The most likely scenario feels like the Cubs are going to transition Shaw into the starting 2b in 2027 while he provides injury assurances behind 3 positions, strengthens the bench and allows for more off days for players in 2026.

[cl smooth]

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, BKHoo said:

How do they keep Can Smith when he was an integral want by the Astros in the trade?

Not to mention the Cubs signed Bregman to play over Matt Shaw, who was better in 2026 than Cam Smith was. I don't think the Cubs would have been excited to have Smith the starter there.

[Papa Cub]

10 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Hot damn. I'm thrilled about landing a big FA and 5 years is decent. The AAV is a bit insane but money is coming off the books next year. 

So that basically solidifies Shaw as the utility infielder, Mo as the DH and Alcantara as the 4th OF unless they have another surprise lined up. 

I guess that’s the big question - What does the lineup look like now with Bregman? I agree with your post, but what about this (hear me out) - would they ever consider Bregman as a DH?

If so, that completely changes the roster too. However, I personally think they play Bregman at 3B and Shaw will become full time utility to learn and grow into potentially covering for Nico after this year. Or they use one of them as trade bait. Either way - it’s exciting to see them being aggressive and trying to build a solid team! 
 

OF is a concern as far as depth is concerned though. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Papa Cub said:

I guess that’s the big question - What does the lineup look like now with Bregman? I agree with your post, but what about this (hear me out) - would they ever consider Bregman as a DH?

If so, that completely changes the roster too. However, I personally think they play Bregman at 3B and Shaw will become full time utility to learn and grow into potentially covering for Nico after this year. Or they use one of them as trade bait. Either way - it’s exciting to see them being aggressive and trying to build a solid team! 
 

OF is a concern as far as depth is concerned though.