BREAKING: Cubs Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman to Five-Year Deal

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Gotta update your $/WAR priors man, saying Bregman hasn't been worth $35 in three years is some 'back in my day we could get a milkshake for a nickel' stuff

Most FAs sign for 6-8M per WAR.

Edited January 11 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Most FAs sign for 6-8M per WAR.

They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR

It's not, but ok.

[Bertz]

Man his team is gonna win a lot of games.  It doesn't have an ace or a cleanup hitter who's an Avengers level threat like Ohtani or Judge or Skubal, but god damn it's loaded with good players and even the very back end of the roster is quality situational guys.

[Brian707]

Now launch Shaw into the sun for all i care. Go Cubs, great signing.  Go Bears

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It's not, but ok.

Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

Checking won't fit his narrative.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Might want to check the numbers on Cease, Alonso, etc.

Cease signed for 8 on the dot.

I've already compared this to Alonsos deal.

Edited January 11 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I know there are going to be many skeptical. But here's the thing: the team who we call claim doesn't give a horsefeathers just gave a horsefeathers enough to go over the LT for a player. 

That tells us something in the models we have doesn't match up with the models the Cubs have. 

I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

[NorthsideAvenger]

16 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Theyre already over, why not bring in Bellinger now and really make a splash 

Agreed. Will Jed/Tom do it? I hope they do. 

[chibears55]

2 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Agreed. Will Jed/Tom do it? I hope they do. 

Bregman Tucker Reunion 😁

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Cease signed for 8 on the dot.

I've already compared this to Alonsos deal.

Cease has 21 career fWAR and signed for $30M AAV. 

[mk49]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Bregman Tucker Reunion 😁

That will be perfect!

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Cease has 21 career fWAR and signed for $30M AAV. 

No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I suspect there's a little bit of a manual bump for makeup, a little bit of pricing in not having to give up the draft pick, and a little bit of bidding more aggressively to prevent a situation like last year where theyre left holding the bag from happening again.

For better or worse it feels like the Hoyer version of Jon Lester. Or at least what they hope is that. 

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

He signed 7/$210, which is $30/year. 

[ToolDRT]

I’m struggling to see why Jed seems so obsessed with Bregman. Hope it works. If it doesn’t? I fear it scares tom and Jed off more from high money deals. 

Edited January 11 by ToolDRT

[Cuzi]

Just now, Derwood said:

He signed 7/$210, which is $30/year. 

Get back to me when you actually look at his contract.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No one uses career WAR when calculating dollar per WAR.

He's been a 3-4 WAR pitcher for 5 straight years. Put up 3.4 last year and his contract is for $27M AAV. Divide 27 by 3.4. Tell me what you get.

No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million.  The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).

[Cuzi]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million.  The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).

Use projected WAR then. Cease is projected at 3.8. Guess what? That's 7.1.

Fangraphs latest article on the study ended in 2022 and was trending down with $8.5M being the number for '22. So to sit here and say the market rate is a little over 10 is delusional.

Here is a recent article using Fangraphs numbers.

https://www.paraballnotes.com/blog/dollar-per-war-2025-2026

Last year it was 7.8.

No where near a tick over 10.

Edited January 11 by Cuzi

[KCCub]

At the end of the day, Bregman needs around 20 fWAR over his 5 years to hit value. All that matters is Jed and company believe he’ll land close to that with their internal projections. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Use projected WAR then. Cease is projected at 3.8. Guess what? That's 7.1.

Fangraphs latest article on the study ended in 2022 and was trending down with $8.5M being the number for '22. So to sit here and say the market rate is a little over 10 is delusional.

Again, that is not how $/WAR works.  You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it.  You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's. 

[Cuzi]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Again, that is not how $/WAR works.  You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it.  You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's. 

You seem to make up your own rules for how it works. Meanwhile the studies on it don't agree with you.

[javy knows my name]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You seem to make up your own rules for how it works. Meanwhile the studies on it don't agree with you.

Smug and wrong is just the worst look.

I'd give the chances that you understand a single baseball thing better than TT <1%

[BKHoo]

GREAT CHICAGO SPORTS NIGHT. 

 

The Cubs are spending like a big market team. Who knew?