Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[Jason Ross]

Spotrac is horrible for MLB contracts. Use Roster Resource from FG or Cots.

[Tryptamine]

Seranthony Dominguez signs with the WSox on a 2/20 deal. If the Cubs were splurging he was an arm I wouldn't have minded in the pen.

[CubUgly]

21 hours ago, Neuby said:

Love this.  Plus defender who can hit for power and steal a bag.  Likely beats Alacantra out for the fourth OF spot in spring.

Totally agree, solid insurance if Alcantara can't cut it as the fourth outfielder and you can still give Alcantara a fair shot at it. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Spotrac is horrible for MLB contracts. Use Roster Resource from FG or Cots.

Ok, thanks. So chibears numbers are incorrect. They are about $450,000 under the LT line as it stands now. That is what I thought. 

Edited January 23 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, thanks. So chibears numbers are incorrect. They are about $450,000 under the LT line as it stands now. That is what I thought. 

Yes. As a website and the writing team, we don't use Spotrac because of how inaccurate their MLB numbers are.

[KCCub]

Here's the Cots spreadsheet for anyone who wants to bookmark it -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1epJfx2VlkhWd--kaoTLWkYHD2OEetroV73Us1pbefGM/edit?gid=1520401900#gid=1520401900

[Bertz]

On a practical basis the team is over the LT.  They're under at the moment but by a slim enough margin that normal in-season stuff (roster churn, bonuses, etc.) will bump them over.

And that's okay, the team has very explicitly said they're fine going over this year.  Post-Bregman They've frankly been uncharacteristically non-cagey about payroll, which has been refreshing. 

Best guess feels like they've got a harder cap of the second threshold, and that's including any in-season moves.  But no way to say for sure at the moment.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

On a practical basis the team is over the LT.  They're under at the moment but by a slim enough margin that normal in-season stuff (roster churn, bonuses, etc.) will bump them over.

And that's okay, the team has very explicitly said they're fine going over this year.  Post-Bregman They've frankly been uncharacteristically non-cagey about payroll, which has been refreshing. 

Best guess feels like they've got a harder cap of the second threshold, and that's including any in-season moves.  But no way to say for sure at the moment.

The second threshold, per the MLB website, is defined as a 12% surcharge. Do you know if that surcharge only applies to the dollars spent over the second threshold? Or if it applies to all the dollars spent above the first CBT line?

Basically, if go $21m over the LT line, is the penalty $21m x 20% ($4.2m) plus $1m x 32% ($320k), $4.52m total? Or is it $21m x 32% ($6.72m)?

I know it's not huge numbers either way, but conceptually I can see the second threshold being more of hard red line if it would vault them into additional tax on dollars already spent, vs just looking at the total salary + tax cost of any future decisions.

Too much math on a Friday, sorry. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The second threshold, per the MLB website, is defined as a 12% surcharge. Do you know if that surcharge only applies to the dollars spent over the second threshold? Or if it applies to all the dollars spent above the first CBT line?

Basically, if go $21m over the LT line, is the penalty $21m x 20% ($4.2m) plus $1m x 32% ($320k), $4.52m total? Or is it $21m x 32% ($6.72m)?

I know it's not huge numbers either way, but conceptually I can see the second threshold being more of hard red line if it would vault them into additional tax on dollars already spent, vs just looking at the total salary + tax cost of any future decisions.

Too much math on a Friday, sorry. 

I think it's like personal income tax where it's just the extra 12% on dollars above the second line.

The second tax line is definitely the softest.  As you say 12% isn't a lot, and draft penalties don't kick in until the third line. So I am suspecting that's the limit less because of the penalties being onerous and more because it's the most obvious place to draw any sort line from here given the lack of urgency we're hearing from the team.  Like it'd be weird to have a CBA defined line at $264M and Tom to set payroll at like $267M.  And I doubt they're blowing past $264M, because then a lot of November/December decisions get retroactively hard to explain.

[thawv]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, thanks. So chibears numbers are incorrect. They are about $450,000 under the LT line as it stands now. That is what I thought. 

Yes sir.  Cot's has them 3.4 million under, and RR has them at about 470k under. 

[Geographyhater8888]

18 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Totally agree, solid insurance if Alcantara can't cut it as the fourth outfielder and you can still give Alcantara a fair shot at it. 

What exactly is Alcantaras deal? Does he even have a future here as anything other than a fourth outfielder? 

[CubUgly]

16 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What exactly is Alcantaras deal? Does he even have a future here as anything other than a fourth outfielder? 

For me and many I think, the hope was that he would have progressed a bit further at the plate by now.  Fair or unfair, as he's still relatively young.  I do believe he'll get an opportunity at some point this year - it's up to him when he gets it.

With possibly both Happ and Seiya being gone by 2027 it's a pretty big opportunity for him. 

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What exactly is Alcantaras deal? Does he even have a future here as anything other than a fourth outfielder? 

Alcantara was hurt last year. He's an above average defender in CF while being plus in the corners. I think people are far too down on him due to the injury and fatigue. He's been a top-100 prospect for a good amount of time. There is starting upside but a good chance of him being an MLB player as a 4th OF too. Totally fine to be a little skeptical, but also feels like we have swung too hard in that direction. 

This is a a great spot for him. He has the inside track to 4th OF duties this year but had a competitive player behind him to push. The Cubs can curate his PAs and surround him with a great lineup. 

They can also bring up a McCormack or trade for a replacement if he's terrible though June. But this is a good spot for the Cubs to break him in. 

[Bertz]

Honestly people are mostly just bored of Alcantara.  He has contact issues, but they're like Dansby Swanson sized contact issues not Patrick Wisdom sized contact issues.  He's probably the toolsiest player in the org after PCA and Seiya (and maybe now Conrad?).  And his performance was a bit disappointing this year but not nearly in lockstep with the loss of helium, especially now that we know about the hernia.

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Alcantara was hurt last year. He's an above average defender in CF while being plus in the corners. I think people are far too down on him due to the injury and fatigue. He's been a top-100 prospect for a good amount of time. There is starting upside but a good chance of him being an MLB player as a 4th OF too. Totally fine to be a little skeptical, but also feels like we have swung too hard in that direction. 

This is a a great spot for him. He has the inside track to 4th OF duties this year but had a competitive player behind him to push. The Cubs can curate his PAs and surround him with a great lineup. 

They can also bring up a McCormack or trade for a replacement if he's terrible though June. But this is a good spot for the Cubs to break him in. 

Thanks. I’m guessing they’ll bring back Suzuki unless he truly breaks out beyond anyone’s imagination. DH is the biggest question mark for me at the moment.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

What exactly is Alcantaras deal? Does he even have a future here as anything other than a fourth outfielder? 

I would love to see him get some practice as a 1B.  His height would be an asset and if he learned to hit, he could be a RH Bellinger.

[chibears55]

Nats were talking with Giants about Abrams, theyre looking for a big haul for him, just curious what it would take from the Cubs, likely starts with Wiggins. 

No I don't think the Cubs will engage, just curious as to what the return could be from the Cubs or if they even have enough talent in system to even have that discussion for what the Nats are looking for.

Maybe get a 3 way with Nico involved to get prospects to go to the Nats

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Nats were talking with Giants about Abrams, theyre looking for a big haul for him, just curious what it would take from the Cubs, likely starts with Wiggins. 

No I don't think the Cubs will engage, just curious as to what the return could be from the Cubs or if they even have enough talent in system to even have that discussion for what the Nats are looking for.

Maybe get a 3 way with Nico involved to get prospects to go to the Nats

Not interested in Abrams, at all. 

[Stratos]

Recent ZiPS projections don't seem to like Bregman going forward.  They project his 3 year OPS+ at 109.  I love that the Cubs decided to spend, not sure I like that contract though.  Between him vs extending Nico i'd go with Nico, based on the ages.  Maybe both happen though.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Not interested in Abrams, at all. 

Yeah he's been underwhelming.

[mul21]

On 1/24/2026 at 11:56 PM, Stratos said:

Recent ZiPS projections don't seem to like Bregman going forward.  They project his 3 year OPS+ at 109.  I love that the Cubs decided to spend, not sure I like that contract though.  Between him vs extending Nico i'd go with Nico, based on the ages.  Maybe both happen though.

This sounds like you're saying to extend Bregman when he's already here for 5 years.  Am I misunderstanding what you're trying to say?

[CubinNY]

On 1/24/2026 at 12:29 PM, Rcal10 said:

Not interested in Abrams, at all. 

He might have a gambling problem. He might have a discipline problem. He's got all the tools, but he hasn't put them together consistently. 

[Geographyhater8888]

I’d rather have Wood if he’s being shopped. Cubs are thin in the outfield once Suzuki and Happ are off the books.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’d rather have Wood if he’s being shopped. Cubs are thin in the outfield once Suzuki and Happ are off the books.

James Wood has far more control than Abrams or Gore. He's not on the table outside of the most outlandish offers.

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

James Wood has far more control than Abrams or Gore. He's not on the table outside of the most outlandish offers.

I’m not saying he’s a realistic option I’m saying he’s the only National that’d make any sense. What is the succession plan for Happ and Suzuki? Is Shaw taking outfield reps for 2027? Extend Suzuki? Hope Conrad mashes in the minors?