Winter Doldrums Thread

[Irrelevant Dude]

48 minutes ago, morrisjon said:

Have we extended anyone of real significance since Happ & Nico 3 years ago? Not being able to sign top tier FA's and not being able to extend our core young players is not a great combination.  

But they made PCA a lowball offer last year, so there's that.

[BobbyD3]

Is there a world where the cost-cutting Twins would trade Pablo Lopez to us?  Is there another world where we would want Buxton and the Twins would want Caissie and Alcantara?  It seems to be a decent to good fit in my estimation, but the age old question, "what do I know?", instantly comes to mind.  Thoughts?    

[Tryptamine]

Caissie and Alcantara is probably near the asking price on Pablo Lopez alone.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Caissie and Alcantara is probably near the asking price on Pablo Lopez alone.

Cassie OR Alcantara plus maybe Brown, Wicks or Assad. Not both.

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, BobbyD3 said:

Is there a world where the cost-cutting Twins would trade Pablo Lopez to us?  Is there another world where we would want Buxton and the Twins would want Caissie and Alcantara?  It seems to be a decent to good fit in my estimation, but the age old question, "what do I know?", instantly comes to mind.  Thoughts?    

Some Twins people. including Trueblood who covers both teams, have suggested it.

I suspect much like the Marlins are aiming to trade Alcantara or Cabrera but not both, the Twins probably look to move Lopez or Ryan but not both.

[Bertz]

Also found this funny.  ZiPS projections:

Lopez - 141.1 IP, 117 ERA+, 2.6 WAR, salary just under $22M/year, entering his age 30 season

Gallen - 174.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 2.7 WAR, based on Nightengale's report would get $22M/year, entering his age 30 season

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

But they made PCA a lowball offer last year, so there's that.

I guess we should begin preparing now for the “we tried our best to work out a long-term deal” speech.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Unfortunately, all of us go on and on for pages about the top FAs and pretending the Cubs will sign them.

Not all of us..lol

Next year though I might be one of them because there should be no excuses as far as availability in money

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Also found this funny.  ZiPS projections:

Lopez - 141.1 IP, 117 ERA+, 2.6 WAR, salary just under $22M/year, entering his age 30 season

Gallen - 174.2 IP, 110 ERA+, 2.7 WAR, based on Nightengale's report would get $22M/year, entering his age 30 season

This got me thinking.  We have ZiPS projections for most but not all of the league at this point.  This is how the various available SPs this winter rank in terms of projected WAR.

Not yet projected: Cease, Valdez, King, Baz

Ranger Suarez - 3.0 WAR

Joe Ryan - 2.8 WAR

Zac Gallen - 2.7 WAR

Pablo Lopez - 2.6 WAR

Mackenzie Gore - 2.6 WAR

Sandy Alcantara - 2.3 WAR

Edward Cabrera - 1.9 WAR

Kris Bubic - 1.9 WAR

Brandon Woodruff - 1.6. WAR

Merrill Kelly - 1.3 WAR

Tatsuya Imai - 1.2 WAR

These numbers don't mean everything in this day of pitch design, but I do think it's interesting how much the completely unbiased computer projections compare to our general pref list around here (myself included, this isn't me casting aspersions).

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Not all of us..lol

Next year though I might be one of them because there should be no excuses as far as availability in money

There won’t be a next year

[Hortonhearsawho]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This got me thinking.  We have ZiPS projections for most but not all of the league at this point.  This is how the various available SPs this winter rank in terms of projected WAR.

Not yet projected: Cease, Valdez, King, Baz

Ranger Suarez - 3.0 WAR

Joe Ryan - 2.8 WAR

Zac Gallen - 2.7 WAR

Pablo Lopez - 2.6 WAR

Mackenzie Gore - 2.6 WAR

Sandy Alcantara - 2.3 WAR

Edward Cabrera - 1.9 WAR

Kris Bubic - 1.9 WAR

Brandon Woodruff - 1.6. WAR

Merrill Kelly - 1.3 WAR

Tatsuya Imai - 1.2 WAR

These numbers don't mean everything in this day of pitch design, but I do think it's interesting how much the completely unbiased computer projections compare to our general pref list around here (myself included, this isn't me casting aspersions).

I guess we should just sign Gallen then.

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

I guess we should just sign Gallen then.

Why not Ranger Suarez, if we are going by projections? 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

59 minutes ago, Derwood said:

There won’t be a next year

Maybe less games, but no way they'll lose an entire season.

[Randall Simon]

If Gallen is the cheapest (in both $ and years) I'm ok with him. His durability is an attractive add to a rotation with several guys who have injury histories. He has WS experience and his ceiling is pretty high. He may not be as likely to hit that ceiling as Suarez or Valdez but maybe more likely than a guy like Cabrera IMO.  

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Maybe less games, but no way they'll lose an entire season.

I doubt they even lose any games.  Maybe they lop off a week to soft-launch the return to 154 games a season?  But the timing of the TV deals means nothing catastrophic is going to happen.  It's just going to be a bunch of annoying bluster like last time.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I doubt they even lose any games.  Maybe they lop off a week to soft-launch the return to 154 games a season?  But the timing of the TV deals means nothing catastrophic is going to happen.  It's just going to be a bunch of annoying bluster like last time.

I agree. I think the only times games were missed because of CBA negotiations was the infamous '94 strike.

[Hortonhearsawho]

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why not Ranger Suarez, if we are going by projections? 

Cubs are too cheap for that.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

6 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I agree. I think the only times games were missed because of CBA negotiations was the infamous '94 strike.

1981. Early 70s also lost a few games. But 1981 lasted so long the season had to be split into two halves. The Reds had the best record in baseball but missed the playoffs because they didn’t win either half. 

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

But they made PCA a lowball offer last year, so there's that.

Maybe they did?  I think that may have been debunked. 

[Backtobanks]

13 hours ago, BobbyD3 said:

Is there a world where the cost-cutting Twins would trade Pablo Lopez to us?  Is there another world where we would want Buxton and the Twins would want Caissie and Alcantara?  It seems to be a decent to good fit in my estimation, but the age old question, "what do I know?", instantly comes to mind.  Thoughts?    

According to BTV Lopez has a trade value of 16.3 and Buxton is at 19.5.  Here are the trade values of Cubs prospects: Alcantara 7.8, Ballesteros 22.1, Cassie 19.4, Brown 12.4, Wicks 8.3, Triantos 9.3, Birdsell 3.3, Long 5.9, Little 16.5, etc. There is certainly enough trade value in our prospects to get Lopez alone or Lopez and Buxton if both FOs are motivated to do it.

[CubinNY]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

I doubt they even lose any games.  Maybe they lop off a week to soft-launch the return to 154 games a season?  But the timing of the TV deals means nothing catastrophic is going to happen.  It's just going to be a bunch of annoying bluster like last time.

What does that mean? They are going to beat the players over the head with the RSN collapsing like it’s their fault. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

According to BTV Lopez has a trade value of 16.3 and Buxton is at 19.5.  Here are the trade values of Cubs prospects: Alcantara 7.8, Ballesteros 22.1, Cassie 19.4, Brown 12.4, Wicks 8.3, Triantos 9.3, Birdsell 3.3, Long 5.9, Little 16.5, etc. There is certainly enough trade value in our prospects to get Lopez alone or Lopez and Buxton if both FOs are motivated to do it.

If only this guide meant anything I would absolutely love Lopez and Buxton for Cassie and Little. But we know that isn’t close regardless of what BTV says. Even an overpay of Cassie, any pitcher listed here and Triantos or Long isn’t getting Lopez and Buxton. If the Cubs could do that and still be about $5M to $7M under the LT, I would love that sort of move. But think the Twins would get better offers if they moved both those guys. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Steamer and Fangraphs are very conservative with projections. Nico’s had a 4.4 fWAR average since 22 and he’s projected to post a 3.5, Busch 2.4 and 2, down from 3.5, Horton 1.3 down from 2.2 with more projected innings. Is this the correct interpretation?

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Why not Ranger Suarez, if we are going by projections? 

Not milquetoast enough. Zach Gallen personifies the Cubs rotation.

Edited January 4 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Steamer and Fangraphs are very conservative with projections. Nico’s had a 4.4 fWAR average since 22 and he’s projected to post a 3.5, Busch 2.4 and 2, down from 3.5, Horton 1.3 down from 2.2 with more projected innings. Is this the correct interpretation?

They are inherently conservative, and they should be, but I'll say Steamer seems to really regress defense down to a nub. 

The Cubs have gotten a multi-win boost in the depth charts each of the last few years when they finish folding in ZiPS, and a large chunk of that is that ZiPS seems to actually acknowledge that Swanson and Hoerner are stellar defenders.

For Horton I'd guess the weak projection is the lack of strikeouts.   I do know Dan Szymborski said in a chat that ZiPS likes him a lot more than Steamer, but TBD what that exactly looks like.