Winter Meetings Thread

[JunkyardWalrus]

I miss the Winter Meetings of the Trader Jim days. 

[KCCub]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I thought Levine's article felt more speculative and not like he was reporting something substantial, so my takeaway here is much more focused on the Cerami/Okamoto bit.

Cots has us at $195m projected and Spotrac $193m estimated. $244m is basically our hard cap. Okamoto is projected around $16m AAV per and King $20-$25m AAV(Depending on 3 or 4 year deal). Both are possible, but leaves little room for a big BP arm upgrade unless we move salary elsewhere or swing one in a trade. I wouldn't hate if that's how the offseason played out. Not super flashy, but also not horrible and fills two major needs. 

[Jason Ross]

It is starting to be interesting to see how connected to 3b the Cubs are. Specifically 3b. Bregman, Suarez, and Murakami. There does appear a bit of a trend. I won't speculate why, but it is interesting. 

[CubinNY]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It is starting to be interesting to see how connected to 3b the Cubs are. Specifically 3b. Bregman, Suarez, and Murakami. There does appear a bit of a trend. I won't speculate why, but it is interesting. 

Shipping Shaw to Washington for Gore, I hope. He can live WH. 

[Hot Sauce]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Shipping Shaw to Washington for Gore, I hope. He can live WH. 

A 35-year old Suarez at 3rd will make you pine for Shaw. 

[17 Seconds]

i really hope they sign a 3b and trade shaw

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

A 35-year old Suarez at 3rd will make you pine for Shaw. 

Yes, horsefeathers that. I want Bregman. Short of that, keep MAGABoy

[Bertz]

40 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It is starting to be interesting to see how connected to 3b the Cubs are. Specifically 3b. Bregman, Suarez, and Murakami. There does appear a bit of a trend. I won't speculate why, but it is interesting. 

Murakami doesn't fit this, but if you add a RHH who can cover 3B and don't subsequently deal Shaw away you've got probably the ideal balance of giving runway to the kids while insulating yourself from the downside of them struggling. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Murakami doesn't fit this, but if you add a RHH who can cover 3B and don't subsequently deal Shaw away you've got probably the ideal balance of giving runway to the kids while insulating yourself from the downside of them struggling. 

Yeah, it feels a bit like "Trading Shaw" is a legitimate outcome over the next few days. I'm a little excited by the process...who is it? It feels like Gore for Shaw could work on paper, but Gore's stock is down and Shaw has 6 years of control. Is there a name we don't know available? Seems like a fun outcome potentially. 

[KCCub]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, it feels a bit like "Trading Shaw" is a legitimate outcome over the next few days. I'm a little excited by the process...who is it? It feels like Gore for Shaw could work on paper, but Gore's stock is down and Shaw has 6 years of control. Is there a name we don't know available? Seems like a fun outcome potentially. 

Mariners have a big hole at 3b....

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

Mariners have a big hole at 3b....

Careful. If you say that the Mariners might trade a SP three times, you know who might return...

[Tryptamine]

Murakami I have even less interest in than Suarez. 

[ILMindState]

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

Murakami I have even less interest in than Suarez. 

I have a lot of reservations on Murakami as is. However, I would assume that if the Cubs were the team who signed him, there would be some mechanical and biomechanical things they thing they can do to help him lower the whiff. Realistically, he's probably more than capable of being a useful MLB hitter with 30%+ K% due to his elite batted-ball data. So I'd probably defer to the Cubs judgement there. 

They've had some luck with messing with the mechanics of a handful of young hitters and have even seen a reduction in K% (at the Triple-A level) with Owen Caissie to a real significant manner. How much of that is Cubs and how much of that is "Caissie has 1,000 PA's" is up to your measurement. 

[KCCub]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Careful. If you say that the Mariners might trade a SP three times, you know who might return...

Haha, I didn't want to mention them. But it's got to happen at some point right? Right???

[Tryptamine]

45 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Shipping Shaw to Washington for Gore, I hope. He can live WH. 

Not sure I move him for Gore, Ryan absolutely, but Gore I waiver. 

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I have a lot of reservations on Murakami as is. However, I would assume that if the Cubs were the team who signed him, there would be some mechanical and biomechanical things they thing they can do to help him lower the whiff. Realistically, he's probably more than capable of being a useful MLB hitter with 30%+ K% due to his elite batted-ball data. So I'd probably defer to the Cubs judgement there. 

They've had some luck with messing with the mechanics of a handful of young hitters and have even seen a reduction in K% (at the Triple-A level) with Owen Caissie to a real significant manner. How much of that is Cubs and how much of that is "Caissie has 1,000 PA's" is up to your measurement. 

What can I say, I'm a huge hit tool believer. I put that above all other tools. I think it's easier for guys with premier hit tools to give up some contact for power than it is to go the other way on guys with power tools and low hit tools

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I have a lot of reservations on Murakami as is. However, I would assume that if the Cubs were the team who signed him, there would be some mechanical and biomechanical things they thing they can do to help him lower the whiff. Realistically, he's probably more than capable of being a useful MLB hitter with 30%+ K% due to his elite batted-ball data. So I'd probably defer to the Cubs judgement there. 

They've had some luck with messing with the mechanics of a handful of young hitters and have even seen a reduction in K% (at the Triple-A level) with Owen Caissie to a real significant manner. How much of that is Cubs and how much of that is "Caissie has 1,000 PA's" is up to your measurement. 

I'm also not a huge Murakami fan but he is a 26 year old who projects to 4 WAR/600 PAs.  So that contact risk is scary but also why he's looking at $180M and not twice that.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Not sure I move him for Gore, Ryan absolutely, but Gore I waiver. 

I think Ryan and Gore have the same thing going against them. With 27 in question is trading Shaw for either really a good idea? Yiu might only get 1 year out of them. One reason I like Cabrera better. At least he comes with 3 years of control. 
Do the Angels need a 3rd baseman? How would Shaw for a Soriano and Detmer look? Who adds and what is needed. Cubs get a starung pitcher with upside but also a lefty pen arm. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

What can I say, I'm a huge hit tool believer. I put that above all other tools. I think it's easier for guys with premier hit tools to give up some contact for power than it is to go the other way on guys with power tools and low hit tools

Don't disagree. There is a reason why K% and contact rates are some of the biggest green flag indicators for prospects; they have strong rates of being successful at the highest level. I do think there's something in teaching approach, changing mechanics and the like that can change that - though don't disagree it's not easy. A lot of it is how well a player can adapt and how well your staff is at identifying it. 

Like I said; based on the information we have. Murakami would be a pass for me. But I also know I'm not in-tune enough with the possible fixes to speak to them and how likely they are to get to the root. I'd be cautiously optimistic if the Cubs got him; they're a team who's certainly prioritized contact rate the last half-decade, so either they would have completely changed their internal philosophy or they see a way to compensate for the whiffs in a fashion and feel comfortable enough doling out a $90m deal (for a team who doesn't really gamble very much with money). 

[mk49]

I've heard Murakami's defense was very questionable.  If he's going to be a DH, he would be too expensive.  The other Japanese guy, Okamoto is supposedly better defensively with better contact, but less power than Murakami.  I don't think Okamoto is gonna be a good defensive player, though.  

But, what do I know about these guys?  Not that much.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, mk49 said:

I've heard Murakami's defense was very questionable.  If he's going to be a DH, he would be too expensive.  The other Japanese guy, Okamoto is supposedly better defensively with better contact, but less power than Murakami.  I don't think Okamoto is gonna be a good defensive player, though.  

But, what do I know about these guys?  Not that much.

Scouting defense is, what I've learned, a fools' game. Javier Baez was supposed to be a bad fielder, and he's a great fielder. Christopher Morel was supposed to be a good fielder and he's a bad fielder. 

I'll say this about the Cubs and third base defense; they have it down to a science. Nick Madrigal and Matt Shaw have both turned in +defensive seasons for the team when people questioned their ability to play the position. Murakami or Okamoto; if they sign here, I think it's safe that the Cubs, at least internally, feel like they can do it.

[ILMindState]

Seiya was a multiple gold glove winner in Japan

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, it feels a bit like "Trading Shaw" is a legitimate outcome over the next few days. I'm a little excited by the process...who is it? It feels like Gore for Shaw could work on paper, but Gore's stock is down and Shaw has 6 years of control. Is there a name we don't know available? Seems like a fun outcome potentially. 

Maybe the Marlins really like Shaw? Maybe I’m just dreaming about Cabrera in blue pinstripes.

[Hot Sauce]

3 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Seiya was a multiple gold glove winner in Japan

How bad were the other outfielders?!