Winter Meetings Thread

[chibears55]

Cubs payroll sits at around 199.5 now with 19 players on roster, leaving them with 44+ under the Threshold.

If Hoyer does his usual savings for in season moves, he probably will look to spend about 25 on 7 players to fill out roster, so it not looking good for the better FA thatll be looking for more than 15 mil.

[chibears55]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I actually don't think you need another lefty.  I wouldn't have been happy with either being the top lefty in the pen, but a Little or a Martin or TBD waiver wire addition can be the second lefty out of the pen.

Likely the case with what they have left to spend. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not trying to be unfair. If we can and are teaching pitchers to do this, then it really shouldn't impact the offseason decisions made by the front office. I'm less confident than you are that this is a super repeatable skill, but that's fine, we don't have to agree. If you think it's just another way for the Cubs to outkick their projections, that's not really a reason to not get the best projections possible in my ind.

Being difficult one last time: Justin Steele has been below the 2025 league average in IFFB every one of the last four years, and the part of the paragraph you left off included that he would improve their pop up generation (11.4% last year), and that he has been a very reliable pop up getter. You can't really call me unfair and leave off half the paragraph, right?

Bigger picture, none of this is meant to be a personal attack or anything like that. Love your work. Just...picking nits. 

So the Steele thing was less about "what he's done" but that second sentence of his fastball. I don't really think we've seen that next evolution of what Zombro can do with Steele's fastball. He's been a reliable pop-up getter in bulk, but the idea was really the pitch style. Probably didn't make that clear enough - that's the real golden ticket I think.  He's done decently well on getting popups in the past, and I think the Cubs will help get some more out of him with the way he throws that pitch. 

I also do think it's repeatable with, especially, the ride of fastballs. Fastballs that ride up, ride over barrels. We can think of this way: curveballs correlate to ground balls because of their downward motion. Fastballs that ride up over a barrel corelate with balls in the air.  The Cubs had the third most ride on their fastballs last year. The Cubs definitely have a lot of cut (5th most horizontal movement on their fastball group). They also, by far and away, throw the most fastballs. So I'd say that the Cubs certainly use this to their advantage and yes, I do think it's repeatable, much like a ground ball pitcher is repeatable. 

Lastly, I don't think I've ever once said (and forgive me if I have, maybe I have and you'll show it to me) that the Cubs shouldn't get the best projected players. But if we're talking run prevention, and we're talking the Chicago Cubs, than I think we have to find ways to outkick the coverage when they can. The Cubs aren't going to put forth a budget where they're going to snap up every who's just the best - and especially this year with the rumored $50m they have. Part of that is going to be creating a symbiotic relationship to what they have; a ballpark that does not play nicely right now for hitters, a defense that deletes runs, and by finding any way to create outs that convert at a high rate; which includes that concept of popups. 

I don't think we'll waltz into the season as a team who projects as a top-5 run prevention team, but I think with a combination of everything, money spent on the right pitchers (and the bulk of that $50m or whatever), internal development on year 2 of Tyler Zombro's integration, and a symbiotic relationship between the other factors...that the Cubs can become that kind of team that prevents runs that outkick the FIP projections. I like FIP, but I think there's some real limitations within (batted balls I think matter more and more as I explore) and looking beyond FIP is the next frontier for our understanding of run prevention, specifically, in general. And to be clear, I'm not alone on the concerns with FIP based projection. I will admit I don't always agree with Jarrett Seidler, and I think he's, at his nicest "overly antagonistic"...but he also is pretty smart:

https://bsky.app/profile/seidler.bsky.social/post/3m6it26uqrc2s

I do think we are moving to a point where FIP based everything is probably getting a bit outdated. Which also goes back to my beliefs here. I'm not suggesting we entirely throw out pitcher fWAR or xFIP, it's still the best we have, but that we are probably missing swaths of understanding of pitching with FIP as our current foundation and that we should probably keep that in mind. 

Don't worry about offending me; we're talking baseball, we can disagree. I'd hate if all we did was agree - that's boring. And I think it makes both of us smarter. Iron sharpens iron, and by challenging each other, we dive deeper into the concept. Frankly, I've learned more already because of this conversation, so no offense has been taken at all, more of a "thank you for the challenge, I feel like I understand my point better now because you've forced me to dive deeper into it".

And you can't offend me, I've taught middle school children for 15 years now. "Yo, Mr. Ross, your shoes look like bowling shoes" is the meanest thing anyone has ever said to me, and you can't top that. I bought new shoes that night.

[Jason Ross]

Switching gears, here is a killer article from Chris Langin on Tatsuya Imai. It's in Japanese, but the page is easily translated. If you want an article that better explains why I'm so sold on this guy, this is the article. 

Link to article

It's highly worthwhile. And I think you'll walk away as convinced as I am; this is the dude. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Cubs payroll sits at around 199.5 now with 19 players on roster, leaving them with 44+ under the Threshold.

If Hoyer does his usual savings for in season moves, he probably will look to spend about 25 on 7 players to fill out roster, so it not looking good for the better FA thatll be looking for more than 15 mil.

Last year he kept too much money for deadline moves. Other than that he doesn’t keep $19M for the deadline. I would guess he has about $35M to spend. Which isn’t a lot but probably closer to what he CAN do. Doesn’t mean he will. But I think your number is too low. 

[Bertz]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47265901/mlb-winter-meetings-2025-winners-losers-takeaways-offseason-free-agency

Quote

Jesse Rogers: Simply put, that deals for many of the major free agent pitchers aren't close to being finalized. It almost feels like the beginning of the offseason for starting pitchers, who are meeting with teams to try to ignite their market. There has been a steady pace of signings for relievers -- especially at the high end -- but other than Dylan Cease, starting pitchers have been slow to agree to deals. That will change -- at least in part -- because Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai has a deadline of Jan. 2 to sign, but even that is still several weeks away.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

So the Steele thing was less about "what he's done" but that second sentence of his fastball. I don't really think we've seen that next evolution of what Zombro can do with Steele's fastball. He's been a reliable pop-up getter in bulk, but the idea was really the pitch style. Probably didn't make that clear enough - that's the real golden ticket I think.  He's done decently well on getting popups in the past, and I think the Cubs will help get some more out of him with the way he throws that pitch. 

I also do think it's repeatable with, especially, the ride of fastballs. Fastballs that ride up, ride over barrels. We can think of this way: curveballs correlate to ground balls because of their downward motion. Fastballs that ride up over a barrel corelate with balls in the air.  The Cubs had the third most ride on their fastballs last year. The Cubs definitely have a lot of cut (5th most horizontal movement on their fastball group). They also, by far and away, throw the most fastballs. So I'd say that the Cubs certainly use this to their advantage and yes, I do think it's repeatable, much like a ground ball pitcher is repeatable. 

Lastly, I don't think I've ever once said (and forgive me if I have, maybe I have and you'll show it to me) that the Cubs shouldn't get the best projected players. But if we're talking run prevention, and we're talking the Chicago Cubs, than I think we have to find ways to outkick the coverage when they can. The Cubs aren't going to put forth a budget where they're going to snap up every who's just the best - and especially this year with the rumored $50m they have. Part of that is going to be creating a symbiotic relationship to what they have; a ballpark that does not play nicely right now for hitters, a defense that deletes runs, and by finding any way to create outs that convert at a high rate; which includes that concept of popups. 

I don't think we'll waltz into the season as a team who projects as a top-5 run prevention team, but I think with a combination of everything, money spent on the right pitchers (and the bulk of that $50m or whatever), internal development on year 2 of Tyler Zombro's integration, and a symbiotic relationship between the other factors...that the Cubs can become that kind of team that prevents runs that outkick the FIP projections. I like FIP, but I think there's some real limitations within (batted balls I think matter more and more as I explore) and looking beyond FIP is the next frontier for our understanding of run prevention, specifically, in general. And to be clear, I'm not alone on the concerns with FIP based projection. I will admit I don't always agree with Jarrett Seidler, and I think he's, at his nicest "overly antagonistic"...but he also is pretty smart:

https://bsky.app/profile/seidler.bsky.social/post/3m6it26uqrc2s

I do think we are moving to a point where FIP based everything is probably getting a bit outdated. Which also goes back to my beliefs here. I'm not suggesting we entirely throw out pitcher fWAR or xFIP, it's still the best we have, but that we are probably missing swaths of understanding of pitching with FIP as our current foundation and that we should probably keep that in mind. 

Don't worry about offending me; we're talking baseball, we can disagree. I'd hate if all we did was agree - that's boring. And I think it makes both of us smarter. Iron sharpens iron, and by challenging each other, we dive deeper into the concept. Frankly, I've learned more already because of this conversation, so no offense has been taken at all, more of a "thank you for the challenge, I feel like I understand my point better now because you've forced me to dive deeper into it".

And you can't offend me, I've taught middle school children for 15 years now. "Yo, Mr. Ross, your shoes look like bowling shoes" is the meanest thing anyone has ever said to me, and you can't top that. I bought new shoes that night.

But when you mention that Zombro can be beneficial when he gets Steele's fastball, doesn't that imply that it will be as volatile as the metrics that Steele has? And when Steele uses his own fastball, it's not that... reliable, either, as demonstrated by the stats.

I do think that we need more of his fastball, but it's inherently wavering--it will never be consistent. That's why it's beneficial to diversify our portfolios with different pitching types. It's like investing all of your money in one specific company--it can either turn out really well or really terribly. If we truly want a sustainable team, we should not be focusing on one method, but efficiently applying various methods to diversify the bullpen.

Well, fastballs are... fast, and the specific type of pitch can't be repeatable if you correlate this with the IFFB metric, dude. In fact, I looked the stats up extensively, and found that there is a "moderate" level of pitcher streakiness levels (IMP) in general, despite some consistency: https://wsb.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/feder_wsj_spring_2024.pdf. Although not directly related to the specific theme of reliability. 

Since this UPenn article talks about consistency, which is a metric that you were sure about with the new style that you're condoning, it would be reasonable to think that the ability to strike out should be very consistent. In actuality, as the article explains, players who are at the "top of their game" will tend to strike out more and when they are not, there will be more contact. Combined with the previous data points, it would be foolish to assume that fastballs correlate with the IFFB. There is a weak, if any, correlation.

The Cubs do have expertise with the fastball; there's no denying that. However, trying to develop a pitching style with weaker metrics or proof is inherently risky--it's gambling with very few credible data points. And with research already conducted on the streakiness of MLB pitchers--demonstrating their inconsistency--more attention should be paid to spontaneity, not a specific pitching style and more pop-ups.

I think that FIP is a valuable, isolating stat point. I don't think that we have to phase out of traditional metrics; instead, we should combine and create a... portfolio to determine streakiness or player consistency that could promote the idea of pitching sequences, not a sole objective of popping out. Ultimately, the bullpen is like the pocket--pitchers should be chosen based on their experiences with team hitting profiles, their strengths at a moment in time, and their weaknesses at a moment in time. 

I had previously said that I agreed with the fact that more emphasis should be placed on popping out. I still stand by that; my opinions don't change. But I still think that we should make sure that we are emphasizing comprehensiveness instead of unilateralism.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Switching gears, here is a killer article from Chris Langin on Tatsuya Imai. It's in Japanese, but the page is easily translated. If you want an article that better explains why I'm so sold on this guy, this is the article. 

Link to article

It's highly worthwhile. And I think you'll walk away as convinced as I am; this is the dude. 

Bookmarking this to give its full due later, but Eno Sarris came to a similar conclusion about Joe Ryan with an extra couple MPH.  And he compared the slider to Trey Yesavage (who I assume didn't make this article because he wouldn't have enough IP to hit the appropriate leaderboard).

Seems like premium stuff pretty clearly, the questions are the general Japan -> US stuff plus the worry about his control issues coming back.  I'm comfortable with both of those assuming we're talking about $150-200M and and it doesn’t way outstrip that.  Yamamoto was supposed to be $200Mish and then we saw how quickly that bidding exploded at the end.

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Bookmarking this to give its full due later, but Eno Sarris came to a similar conclusion about Joe Ryan with an extra couple MPH.  And he compared the slider to Trey Yesavage (who I assume didn't make this article because he wouldn't have enough IP to hit the appropriate leaderboard).

Seems like premium stuff pretty clearly, the questions are the general Japan -> US stuff plus the worry about his control issues coming back.  I'm comfortable with both of those assuming we're talking about $150-200M and and it doesn’t way outstrip that.  Yamamoto was supposed to be $200Mish and then we saw how quickly that bidding exploded at the end.

Bookmark this, because this directly shows the NPB to MLB correlation and pathway. It's a killer read for a dork. 

Same guy had a killer Twitter/x feed on Imanaga and his fastball threshold. Former Driveline guy who clearly has a passion for NPB pitching. He's becoming a favorite of mine.  

And listen, if Eno Saris is in on a guy, you can sign me up. Eno is a *dude*. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Last year he kept too much money for deadline moves. Other than that he doesn’t keep $19M for the deadline. I would guess he has about $35M to spend. Which isn’t a lot but probably closer to what he CAN do. Doesn’t mean he will. But I think your number is too low. 

     Here the last 4 season Threshold and Cubs Opening Day payroll    

2022  Threshold 230 OD payroll 143

87 under

2023  Threshold 233  OD payroll 184

49 under

2024  Threshold 237  OD payroll 214

23 under

2025  Threshold 241  OD payroll 178

63 under

So going by the last 4 seasons, im way under where he's been 3 of last 4 years with how much under the Threshold he stays going into the season. 

So with 44+ to spend on 7 players, and even if he spends 2/3 of that and stays 15 under this season, I still doubt they add someone to a 15+ deal unless he plans on adding a bunch of really low deals and or bringing guys up from Iowa. 🤷‍♂️

So in reality, if they seriously plan on NOT going over the Threshold this season and Hoyer stays with his plan of holding a good sum of money going into the season, our hopes and expectations of them adding a significant player/contract is really dim.

Edited December 12, 2025 by chibears55

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

     Here the last 4 season Threshold and Cubs Opening Day payroll    

2022  Threshold 230 OD payroll 143

87 under

2023  Threshold 233  OD payroll 184

49 under

2024  Threshold 237  OD payroll 214

23 under

2025  Threshold 241  OD payroll 178

63 under

So going by the last 4 seasons, im way under where he's been 3 of last 4 years with how much under the Threshold he stays going into the season. 

 

So with 44+ to spend on 7 players, and even if he spends 2/3 of that and stays 15 under this season, I still doubt they add someone to a 15+ deal unless he plans on adding a bunch of really low deals and or bringing guys up from Iowa. 🤷‍♂️

So in reality, if they seriously plan on NOT going over the Threshold this season and Hoyer stays with his plan of holding a good sum of money going into the season, our hopes and expectations of them adding a significant player/contract is really dim.

FYI those opening day payroll numbers are not the same as luxury tax numbers.  You need to add give or take ~$25M per year to get to the LT number.

This stuff is needlessly complicated, but the long and short is that in a competitive season the team typically aims to be about $10M under the luxury tax on opening day.  Last year was a good bit more than that.  I tend to think Jed misread the market a bit and basically there was nothing to spend the extra money on after whiffing on Bregman, but your mileage may vary.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Bookmark this, because this directly shows the NPB to MLB correlation and pathway. It's a killer read for a dork. 

Same guy had a killer Twitter/x feed on Imanaga and his fastball threshold. Former Driveline guy who clearly has a passion for NPB pitching. He's becoming a favorite of mine.  

And listen, if Eno Saris is in on a guy, you can sign me up. Eno is a *dude*. 

Okay yeah I had a chance to read it more thoroughly.  Really great find.  Some fun things I hadn't thought about

- Lovd the callout that MLB hitters are significantly taller than NPB hitters.  I'd never thought about that and it does certainly should help any Japanese pitcher who was a high carry fastball like Imanaga or Imai

- Really interesting theory that the pre 2025 "command issues" were the Japanese strike zone not being conducive to his high fastball

- It's weird to me conceptually to not really have a pitch that moves glove side.  I wonder if they do play with a sweeper or cutter with him?  That said we just saw Trey Yesavage horsefeathering maul a bunch of playoff lineups with the same 3 pitches...coming from a very different arm angle

- I feel like it didn't really belong in this article, and the translation got pretty shoddy at this part, but the idea of Stuff+ basically forcing everyone into two buckets thus killing the utility of Stuff+ as an evaluation tool is a great callout

- Not just this article but everywhere I feel like glosses over his splitter, and I don't have a good sense of whether it's a somewhat weak offering, or if there's just this sort of "yeah he's an elite Japanese pitcher of course he has a great splitter what else is there to say" thing going on

Really good stuff.  Hopefully we come down with him.

[chibears55]

35 minutes ago, Bertz said:

FYI those opening day payroll numbers are not the same as luxury tax numbers.  You need to add give or take ~$25M per year to get to the LT number.

This stuff is needlessly complicated, but the long and short is that in a competitive season the team typically aims to be about $10M under the luxury tax on opening day.  Last year was a good bit more than that.  I tend to think Jed misread the market a bit and basically there was nothing to spend the extra money on after whiffing on Bregman, but your mileage may vary.

Ok but even if you add another 25 to 30, outside of 2024, they'd still be over 20 under on OD.

I hope he only chooses to stay 10-15 under this year, but even that would only mean adding/signing one guy between 15-20, which would leave him between 25-30 to add 6 others to the roster.

We'll see

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Okay yeah I had a chance to read it more thoroughly.  Really great find.  Some fun things I hadn't thought about

- Lovd the callout that MLB hitters are significantly taller than NPB hitters.  I'd never thought about that and it does certainly should help any Japanese pitcher who was a high carry fastball like Imanaga or Imai

- Really interesting theory that the pre 2025 "command issues" were the Japanese strike zone not being conducive to his high fastball

- It's weird to me conceptually to not really have a pitch that moves glove side.  I wonder if they do play with a sweeper or cutter with him?  That said we just saw Trey Yesavage horsefeathering maul a bunch of playoff lineups with the same 3 pitches...coming from a very different arm angle

- I feel like it didn't really belong in this article, and the translation got pretty shoddy at this part, but the idea of Stuff+ basically forcing everyone into two buckets thus killing the utility of Stuff+ as an evaluation tool is a great callout

- Not just this article but everywhere I feel like glosses over his splitter, and I don't have a good sense of whether it's a somewhat weak offering, or if there's just this sort of "yeah he's an elite Japanese pitcher of course he has a great splitter what else is there to say" thing going on

Really good stuff.  Hopefully we come down with him.

All of this I agree with. It's a wonderful look at him and it made me even more set on my belief that this is kind of the guy to get. I'll admit a biaes on him to begin with, but Langin took anything I liked and amplified it. And did so 100x better than I could. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

All of this I agree with. It's a wonderful look at him and it made me even more set on my belief that this is kind of the guy to get. I'll admit a biaes on him to begin with, but Langin took anything I liked and amplified it. And did so 100x better than I could. 

Guess we better hope Chibear is wrong about the payroll. Otherwise there is no way they can spend what Imai will cost and still have some cash to add another 7 players. Imai, alone might cost $25M a year. 

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Guess we better hope Chibear is wrong about the payroll. Otherwise there is no way they can spend what Imai will cost and still have some cash to add another 7 players. Imai, alone might cost $25M a year. 

I hope im wrong too...

44.5 mil left under Threshold and 7 players still needed to fill out roster, doesn't leave much left for other 6 if they add a guy for 20+ and he holds at minimum 10 mil for in season spending. 

 

[mk49]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Guess we better hope Chibear is wrong about the payroll. Otherwise there is no way they can spend what Imai will cost and still have some cash to add another 7 players. Imai, alone might cost $25M a year. 

Yeah, Imai could cost $25m+ AAV.  I like him, and I think he will be good, but at the same time, I think he's overrated, because of Yamamoto and in some degree, Shota.  Those two came to MLB last year, and both pitched well for two seasons.  Looking at Imai's stats from the last season, he's no where near Yamamoto in Japan, but better than Shota's last season in Japan.  

I hope the Cubs will sign Imai, though.

Edited December 12, 2025 by mk49

[Hot Sauce]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Switching gears, here is a killer article from Chris Langin on Tatsuya Imai. It's in Japanese, but the page is easily translated. If you want an article that better explains why I'm so sold on this guy, this is the article. 

Link to article

It's highly worthwhile. And I think you'll walk away as convinced as I am; this is the dude. 

He’s #1 on my off-season wish list. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's not an enormous difference but the roster resource payroll number assumes a full roster, filling in league minimum spots where necessary.  So for the purposes of thinking about salary room available for additions, that 44.5 million number shy of the tax line is actually easier to think of as 50 million(7 * 780k = 5.5 million), otherwise you'd double count the league minimum values for those 7 roster spots.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Said a different way, especially since several of the roster spots we're talking about are likely to go to league minimum or near-minimum players, that money can go further than you think.  In fact I think there's probably only 3-4 additions that will be materially above the league minimum, barring trades.  Add in the possibility that following a playoff season and resetting LT penalties they'll be even the slightest bit more aggressive with payroll, and it's not hard to imagine there being 45-50 million for those 3-4 spots.  Which could be something like King + Okamoto + Keller, or Imai + Polanco + Fairbanks, or Bregman + Sandy Alcantara + Luke Weaver, etc.

[jersey cubs fan]

On 12/10/2025 at 1:35 PM, Cuzi said:

Live look at Jed Hoyer contemplating another 9 figure contract

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

All of this I agree with. It's a wonderful look at him and it made me even more set on my belief that this is kind of the guy to get. I'll admit a biaes on him to begin with, but Langin took anything I liked and amplified it. And did so 100x better than I could. 

Twins don't seem to want to trade Joe Ryan (or they're hoping his value skyrockets at the deadline) so looks like Imai is the next best thing.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think the question for the Cubs is whether the 3rd year is the sticking point or whether the issue is committing these healthy AAVs before the SP has been figured out.

I wonder if the trade route is something that could save some payroll and free up the money to pursue one of these high leverage relievers.  Kinda like what they did last year.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll admit - I'm a big no-go on the 3rd year on Suarez myself. You could get me into Williams on a third year, I could get into a 2+1 on Helsley. I don't like Suarez as an ager.

Yeah 3 years for a reliever who will be 35 on Opening Day is a no-go for me too.  If he were 30 years old then that's fine.

[mk49]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Yeah 3 years for a reliever who will be 35 on Opening Day is a no-go for me too.  If he were 30 years old then that's fine.

I agree 100%.  There were a few Robert Suarez trade talk last winter.  I wanted him, but not now.  He's another guy who learned pitching in Japan.  If I remember correctly, he played for 5 or 6yrs in Japan, before he joined the Padres.  I don't know what it is, but NPB probably has something for pitchers.  There are many good pitchers from Japan, but not many great fielders/batters.  Seiya must be more than decent as a batter from Japan.  I can only think Ichiro, Shohei and Matsui who were better.

Edited December 12, 2025 by mk49