Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Formal offers are I believe full on contracts.  Or at least like a terms sheet.  You see this distinction used a lot for rage bait.  "The Mets didn't even make Pete Alonso a formal offer!"  Well sure but they talked extensively and there was an understanding they'd be willing to go to $100M it just never got formalized because both sides understood it wasn't going to get the job done.

It’s like with Cease. The Cubs were interested but when the agent said we are approaching $200M, the Cubs bowed out. One could say they were never in it to begin with because they never made a formal offer, but I’d bet they made a proposal that would make manny fans happy. 

[Bertz]

A stretch but things are slow around here so I'll post it.  This article is listed under the Cubs' section of the Athletic despite them not being mentioned at all.

Re: Imai, this is all it says

Quote

 

Pitcher Tatsuya Imai’s posting deadline is Jan. 2, while corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto’s posting deadline to sign with an MLB team is Jan. 4. Agent Scott Boras represents both players from Japan. Both players traveled to the U.S. to meet with teams. A few teams already met recently with Imai in Los Angeles, league sources said. Additional meetings are expected this week.

It is typical for a player to reach an agreement with a club a couple of days before the actual deadline to allow time for things such as a physical.

 

 

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

A stretch but things are slow around here so I'll post it.  This article is listed under the Cubs' section of the Athletic despite them not being mentioned at all.

Re: Imai, this is all it says

 

We have waited this long. What is a few more days? Once thenteonJapanese guys find a home in expecting to heat up quickly.  Rally hoping, but not expecting, the Cubs are willing to go over the alt line. They can make 2 moves and put themselves into a favorite role in the central. And again, a 90+ win team. 

[mk49]

I think Imai isn't going to be super expensive.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he signs something like 4~5yr, $20M AAV or a little less.  It would suck, if the Cubs don't offer that kind of deal.  

We'll know very soon.

[Tryptamine]

I get that Donovan is solid, but there's so many speculative articles out there that there's an outright bidding war for him and he's going to net a substantial return. I don't get why he is a guy you'd blow up your farm for.

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, mk49 said:

I think Imai isn't going to be super expensive.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he signs something like 4~5yr, $20M AAV or a little less.  It would suck, if the Cubs don't offer that kind of deal.  

We'll know very soon.

The Athletic is the only source projecting something that seems excessive - 8 years - $190 million - the Cubs I think would be out if it gets to that, but they are the only source projecting near that many years and $$.

[CubinNY]

We should know more by this afternoon if not sooner 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

We should know more by this afternoon if not sooner 

You are more optimistic on the time line that I am. Hope you are right. But I am guessing at the earliest tomorrow and maybe not until Friday. 🤞you are right. 

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, mk49 said:

I think Imai isn't going to be super expensive.  I wouldn't be surprised, if he signs something like 4~5yr, $20M AAV or a little less.  It would suck, if the Cubs don't offer that kind of deal.  

We'll know very soon.

If the Cubs don’t over that sort of deal it is because they don’t think he is that good, period. I am sure, if they really like him they would do that. Money and years wouldn’t be the issue in this instance. It would be uncertainty about his projections. So if they didn’t do it I would not assume that means they won’t be in the other pitchers in that range and even a little above. Probably Gallen. 

[Jason Ross]

20 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You are more optimistic on the time line that I am. Hope you are right. But I am guessing at the earliest tomorrow and maybe not until Friday. 🤞you are right. 

There haven't been any major NPB players who's news broke on the very last day of their posting. When you add in all of the things that need to still happen (contracts signed off, lawyers, a physical, etc) that almost assuredly won't take place on a federal holiday like the 1st, it's incredibly unlikely that it'll happen on Friday. It's also pretty unlikely for it to break on the first - that's a bad news day to begin with and people are busy. So while it's "possible" the probability is incredibly low.

I think it's today or tomorrow, and if I was a betting man, I'd put money on that. I have an appointment at 2pm EST today, so that sounds like a good time for it to break just to annoy me. Overall though, it's far more likely it breaks these two days than the 1st or the 2nd when you take context into account.

Maybe a team can keep everything very quiet and have the news wait until the 2nd, but I just have a hard time thinking it will.

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

There haven't been any major NPB players who's news broke on the very last day of their posting. When you add in all of the things that need to still happen (contracts signed off, lawyers, a physical, etc) that almost assuredly won't take place on a federal holiday like the 1st, it's incredibly unlikely that it'll happen on Friday. It's also pretty unlikely for it to break on the first - that's a bad news day to begin with and people are busy. So while it's "possible" the probability is incredibly low.

I think it's today or tomorrow, and if I was a betting man, I'd put money on that. I have an appointment at 2pm EST today, so that sounds like a good time for it to break just to annoy me. Overall though, it's far more likely it breaks these two days than the 1st or the 2nd when you take context into account.

Maybe a team can keep everything very quiet and have the news wait until the 2nd, but I just have a hard time thinking it will.

My first thought was actually tomorrow. Okamoto is said to be visiting teams. How many? How does he do that all in one day?

I am going on a 10 mile hike today (11AM mountain time) with no ability to check in, so maybe it will happen today🤷 It would be great to get to the car and see the Cubs actually did something.!

Edited December 30, 2025 by Rcal10

[Hortonhearsawho]

We will likely hear something later in the day today, tomorrow is not out of the realm of possibility but I think people would rather enjoy their new years eve instead. At this point they already know who they are choosing anyways so no need to drag it out another day. 

[Bertz]

Brett Taylor found an actual Japanese translation of Imai's comments as opposed to Google.  Clarifies things a bit.

Also interesting to me that it's 3-4 teams at the end here.  It is something I've been wondering about is how many teams are looking to invest a $20M+ salary in a SP right now.  Probably not a ton.  Cubs, Mets (though maybe only on a short term deal), Angels, and....?  Yankees and Tigers sound like they're willing to do the opportunistic thing but it's not a super wide market.

[Rob]

1 hour ago, Hortonhearsawho said:

We will likely hear something later in the day today, tomorrow is not out of the realm of possibility but I think people would rather enjoy their new years eve instead. At this point they already know who they are choosing anyways so no need to drag it out another day. 

Hoyer (and Theo before him) has historically run a pretty tight ship.

As such, the longer things go without a leak, the better I like the odds that it's us. If nobody has said anything up until minutes before the deadline, I'd be pretty confident.

[Hortonhearsawho]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

Hoyer (and Theo before him) has historically run a pretty tight ship.

As such, the longer things go without a leak, the better I like the odds that it's us. If nobody has said anything up until minutes before the deadline, I'd be pretty confident.

The Shota signing came out 3 days before the deadline according to Bleacher Nation. That's when most of these deals get announced a couple days before the deadline not minutes before the deadline.

[Hortonhearsawho]

We need tmz to head out to Newport Beach to see if they can catch Imai singing Go Cubs Go at a local restaurant or bar there today. 😂

[Neuby]

https://x.com/gnomotoke/status/2006032794988752942?s=20

Edited December 30, 2025 by Neuby

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

https://x.com/gnomotoke/status/2006032794988752942?s=20https://x.com/gnomotoke/status/2006032794988752942?s=20

Interesting to see the White Sox pop-up late.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

This may sound odd, but if he ends up signing for far less than originally projected, then I’m not all that interested in him. If he signs for a big deal then the league generally views him as a top of the rotation guy. If he signs for a deal that looks like a bargain, then the league probably views him as a mid rotation guy. We already have plenty of those. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, TarzanJoeWallis said:

This may sound odd, but if he ends up signing for far less than originally projected, then I’m not all that interested in him. If he signs for a big deal then the league generally views him as a top of the rotation guy. If he signs for a deal that looks like a bargain, then the league probably views him as a mid rotation guy. We already have plenty of those. 

I don't think that's the best way to look at this. Imai is a weird evaluation here. I've posted this article before, but I'll post it again; this article breaks down why teams may be hard-pressed to evaluate him well.

Just because you get a great deal doesn't mean what you bought is any better or worse. In fact, if the Cubs get Imai for $90m, we should all rejoice. 

[ILMindState]

If we get outbid by the White Sox....

[Jason Ross]

Just a reminder on the White Sox/Imai stuff; just hours before Seiya Suzuki inked a contract with the Cubs, there were reports out of Japan that he had signed with San Diego. I don't know if the Cubs will or wont sign Tatsuya Imai, but if the Cubs do, it'll probably just drop out of nowhere. That's how Suzuki and Imanaga happened. We probably won't see small articles about them being a finalist like that.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think that's the best way to look at this. Imai is a weird evaluation here. I've posted this article before, but I'll post it again; this article breaks down why teams may be hard-pressed to evaluate him well.

Just because you get a great deal doesn't mean what you bought is any better or worse. In fact, if the Cubs get Imai for $90m, we should all rejoice. 

Fair take. I know you’ve been high on him. 

[ILMindState]

6 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

This may sound odd, but if he ends up signing for far less than originally projected, then I’m not all that interested in him. If he signs for a big deal then the league generally views him as a top of the rotation guy. If he signs for a deal that looks like a bargain, then the league probably views him as a mid rotation guy. We already have plenty of those. 

That's not a bad way to look at it. If the White Sox view him as an ace than nobody else does. They're one of the worst ran organizations in all of sports.

[chibears55]

 

9 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

This may sound odd, but if he ends up signing for far less than originally projected, then I’m not all that interested in him. If he signs for a big deal then the league generally views him as a top of the rotation guy. If he signs for a deal that looks like a bargain, then the league probably views him as a mid rotation guy. We already have plenty of those. 

Im more interested in the years, he is 27 and with Boras as his agent they might want to test the FA market with him at age 30-31.

Likely why the Whitesox could be involved now and would be right up Hoyers alley of offering 3-4 years with options.

Edited December 30, 2025 by chibears55