Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[Outshined_One]

It's also worth pointing out that other teams' pitching preferences tend to be highly idiosyncratic, and the Cubs' minor league pitching depth fell off a cliff after Wiggins pre-deadline, even when factoring in the guys who got traded at the deadline (Gallagher and Armstrong).

I'll grant that you can blame the front office's inability to develop quality pitching prospects for that, but it's also worth mentioning that the Guardians and Rangers both wanted pitching for Bieber/Kelly, and neither team might have valued Wiggins the way other organizations might have.  It also speaks to how the third WC spot helped kill the market, since teams like the Marlins and Giants were able to convince themselves they were buyers, where they might have been sellers a few years ago.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah but I think you're being a little unfair in a couple places. One, making the comparison to Wiggins multiple times, who is ranked higher than Stephan in the highest Stephan ranking, and also looked at around here as the next Horton. And two, calling it seven starts, because he's making an EXTREMELY important 8th start in a couple days here.

The Toronto Blue Jays were not guaranteed to make the playoffs. So while he's going to get to an 8th start, at the time, he wasn't even ready to make an MLB debut. The Tigers and Mets have proven what nonesense can happen down the stretch - there was no guarantee an 8th start was ever coming. 

I didn't really undersell him to Wiggins. First, I said he was the closest 1:1 comp - he is. The Cubs don't have another top-100 pitcher in the system. Stephan and Wiggins were both 2nd round selections out of the SEC. And Wiggins is ranked 66th on FG's list to Stephans 73rd. I think that's a pretty close! I also said I think Wiggins is a better prospect even stating if you thought Stephan was the 125th best prospect that the price was significant. The inclusion of Wiggins was to give a relatable point of reference. I expect most people don't follow the Blue Jays system, but likely, have a cursory knowledge of the Cubs'.

You're really warping my point. My point was only about the price paid for Bieber. The post said "Toronto gave up no much for him". There wasn't another pitcher on the FG top-100 who was moved. That is simply inaccurate. There was no implications for the Cubs based on my post. I wasn't defending Hoyer. Only disagreeing with a line that suggested the Blue Jay got a cheap price on Bieber - it was not a cheap price.

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

One sentence you say realistically neither the Cubs or the Brewers can beat the Dodger or Phillies and then the next sentence you say it is baseball, so anything can happen. So which is it? Personally I think because it is baseball whoever wins this series has a realistic chance of going to the WS. Not 50/50,  but not that unrealistic either. 

Okay professor, I'll say the Cubs or Brewers have around a 30% maybe, slightly higher chance of beating the Dodgers or Phillies.  Is that good enough?

[CubUgly]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Letting Jed off the hook for not making a  deadline deal is not the same as letting off the hook for the lack of another option as a starting pitcher. He is the guy responsible for them being so short of pitching options at the deadline. He should have know the costs would be ridiculous and made whatever move necessary in the off season. While I don’t blame him for not paying the prices needed, I do blame him for the entire situation. Based on who did get moved, IMO, Kelly shouldn’t of been who they traded for. I think he was cheaper than Bieber. 

Exactly, we new before the season started we'd need another starter and that was before Steele got hurt.  Again, we were VERY fortunate Boyd made the whole season and Horton pitched as many innings as he did and was as good as he was. 

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah i think knowing now what the sticker price was for SP IMO the answer is that Taylor Rogers should have instead been David Bednar or Griffin Jax.

I still think the price for Cabrera was do-able. I've seen some suggestions from Zumach that it was in a price range that was headlined by Caissie and didn't involve a Shaw or Horton, and frankly, even as the high-man on the Caissie-totem pole would have paid that. But even beyond that, they needed one more Kittredge level arm or better and getting Rogers and Soroka just was never enough. 

So regardless, I still think the Cubs came up an arm too short. The bullpen is good, but shy one really good guy from being a deathpen, and the rotation is clearly on short right now, especially with the Horton injury.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I blame him for forcing the Cubs into a situation where they needed pitching by not spending in the off season to add a better pitcher. But I don’t blame the FO for not paying the ridiculous prices wanted by teams dumping players. 

I'm with you, except I blame more Tom than Jed.

What i would like Jed to finally do is stop wasting tens of millions on old washed up vets and go get some real talent or find our bench and pen guys off the scrap heap.  We wasted a bunch on Pressly, Brasier, Berti, and Turner is barely useful.

Take all that money and you could easily upgrade to an impact SP.

[BigSlick]

18 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Okay professor, I'll say the Cubs or Brewers have around a 30% maybe, slightly higher chance of beating the Dodgers or Phillies.  Is that good enough?

i think basically once you get to the playoffs no match up is worse than a 60-40 split

there's simply too much variance and the teams are all pretty good

Edited October 6, 2025 by BigSlick

[CUBDOM4life]

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Toronto Blue Jays were not guaranteed to make the playoffs. So while he's going to get to an 8th start, at the time, he wasn't even ready to make an MLB debut. The Tigers and Mets have proven what nonesense can happen down the stretch - there was no guarantee an 8th start was ever coming. 

I didn't really undersell him to Wiggins. First, I said he was the closest 1:1 comp - he is. The Cubs don't have another top-100 pitcher in the system. Stephan and Wiggins were both 2nd round selections out of the SEC. And Wiggins is ranked 66th on FG's list to Stephans 73rd. I think that's a pretty close! I also said I think Wiggins is a better prospect even stating if you thought Stephan was the 125th best prospect that the price was significant. The inclusion of Wiggins was to give a relatable point of reference. I expect most people don't follow the Blue Jays system, but likely, have a cursory knowledge of the Cubs'.

You're really warping my point. My point was only about the price paid for Bieber. The post said "Toronto gave up no much for him". There wasn't another pitcher on the FG top-100 who was moved. That is simply inaccurate. There was no implications for the Cubs based on my post. I wasn't defending Hoyer. Only disagreeing with a line that suggested the Blue Jay got a cheap price on Bieber - it was not a cheap price.

All fair, and really chose to respond to you specifically because I figured I’d get a fair response. My point was more that a well run organization shouldn’t A. Leave $20m-$30m on the table and pretend like it was earmarked for midseason acquisitions in an era where 20-25 teams are going to be in contention in July, and B. Not worry about an alcantara or Triantos or even a Wiggins being an overpay in a very clear playoff year where there was very obviously a weak spot. Just develop another one, or (conspiracy theory) game the system like I have the suspicion the dodgers do so that it seems like you’ve developed another one. 

[CubUgly]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Toronto Blue Jays were not guaranteed to make the playoffs. So while he's going to get to an 8th start, at the time, he wasn't even ready to make an MLB debut. The Tigers and Mets have proven what nonesense can happen down the stretch - there was no guarantee an 8th start was ever coming. 

I didn't really undersell him to Wiggins. First, I said he was the closest 1:1 comp - he is. The Cubs don't have another top-100 pitcher in the system. Stephan and Wiggins were both 2nd round selections out of the SEC. And Wiggins is ranked 66th on FG's list to Stephans 73rd. I think that's a pretty close! I also said I think Wiggins is a better prospect even stating if you thought Stephan was the 125th best prospect that the price was significant. The inclusion of Wiggins was to give a relatable point of reference. I expect most people don't follow the Blue Jays system, but likely, have a cursory knowledge of the Cubs'.

You're really warping my point. My point was only about the price paid for Bieber. The post said "Toronto gave up no much for him". There wasn't another pitcher on the FG top-100 who was moved. That is simply inaccurate. There was no implications for the Cubs based on my post. I wasn't defending Hoyer. Only disagreeing with a line that suggested the Blue Jay got a cheap price on Bieber - it was not a cheap price.

I'd love to know if we even talked and if so who they asked for, then we could all really weigh in on whether we thought the cost too high or not.    

[chibears55]

Just win the damnn game, i don't care how but show some frickn life out there.

 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

All fair, and really chose to respond to you specifically because I figured I’d get a fair response. My point was more that a well run organization shouldn’t A. Leave $20m-$30m on the table and pretend like it was earmarked for midseason acquisitions in an era where 20-25 teams are going to be in contention in July, and B. Not worry about an alcantara or Triantos or even a Wiggins being an overpay in a very clear playoff year where there was very obviously a weak spot. Just develop another one, or (conspiracy theory) game the system like I have the suspicion the dodgers do so that it seems like you’ve developed another one. 

I know! Figured it was the such. Love your contributions! I just didn't want you to think I was defending Hoyer here. I think the place I'm most critical on him in his inability to understand the right time to pay added value on a player, either trade or via FA. 

I almost think he understands value too much. His worst deal is like...Trey Manicini. But he avoids bad deals but being a a bit unable to make the big ones, too, at times 

[chibears55]

8 minutes ago, CUBDOM4life said:

Why even bother with Turner for 1 AB, nothing else changed in the lineup but hey let get Turner an AB to probably do nothing. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Why even bother with Turner for 1 AB, nothing else changed in the lineup but hey let get Turner an AB to probably do nothing. 

Because Busch is really bad against LHP and that's almost assuredly the reason they are hiding Priester with Ashby. Even if it doesn't work out, this is why you have Turner to begin with. He is better against lefties so you give yourself the best chance. 

Just because Turner isn't a star doesn't mean you just roll over and say the less good hitter should just go do it anyways. 

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Okay professor, I'll say the Cubs or Brewers have around a 30% maybe, slightly higher chance of beating the Dodgers or Phillies.  Is that good enough?

Not sure why I am now a professor, but I would have there chances more like 40%. But I do understand you suggesting 30%, I just think any team that gets to the final 4 has better than a 30% of beating any other team. . Especially so, if that series goes 5 games. As you did say, however, anything can happen. 

[Wilson A2000]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Because Busch is really bad against LHP and that's almost assuredly the reason they are hiding Priester with Ashby. Even if it doesn't work out, this is why you have Turner to begin with. He is better against lefties so you give yourself the best chance. 

Just because Turner isn't a star doesn't mean you just roll over and say the less good hitter should just go do it anyways. 

Do you expect the Brewers let Busch face a righty at any point today?

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Do you expect the Brewers let Busch face a righty at any point today?

Probably will have to if they go to Priester in the 2nd. But I doubt he sees many of them. 

We probably don't mention this often enough but Busch was the 6th best hitter against RHP in baseball this year.

[Stratos]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Because Busch is really bad against LHP and that's almost assuredly the reason they are hiding Priester with Ashby. Even if it doesn't work out, this is why you have Turner to begin with. He is better against lefties so you give yourself the best chance. 

Just because Turner isn't a star doesn't mean you just roll over and say the less good hitter should just go do it anyways. 

Yeah and no meaningful difference using Turner in the 1st vs a LHP pen guy than in the 8th.

[Stratos]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Probably will have to if they go to Priester in the 2nd. But I doubt he sees many of them. 

We probably don't mention this often enough but Busch was the 6th best hitter against RHP in baseball this year.

Do you have access to data on what Busch hit vs LHP in the minors/AAA?

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Do you expect the Brewers let Busch face a righty at any point today?

After Ashby, near as I can tell, Koenig and Gasser the remaining LHP in their pen.  If a miracle occurs and the Cubs jump on Ashby, I don't they can avoid Busch facing a righty.

[Wilson A2000]

Busch has a 150 wRC+ in 28 ABs against lefties since August 1

[Rcal10]

Giving Jed a pass on not adding a starting pitcher at the deadline is not the same as giving him a pass on now not having enough starting pitching. He went about his business in the off season with the thought he had a lot of money at the deadline and enough prospects to add whatever he had to add. That was a serious miss. He is who made that determination. He should have realized the market would be hard.
They saved Bellinger money so they can add whatever they needed. So why not do it in the off season. I thought originally the Bellinger deal had Warren coming back. Warren threw 160+ innings this year in the Yankees rotation. That didnt happen because TR wanted the Yankees to eat more of Bellinger’s contract. Again, supposedly to have that money at the deadline. Had Jed insisted on Warren and the Yankees not take as much of Bellinger’s contract on, the Cubs would have had another starter. He wasn’t great. But he was ok. And he could have taken some innings from Boyd and maybe even Horton. Maybe they would have been healthier in the playoffs. Jed messed up in the off season. And that’s why we are at least 1 pitcher short. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Do you have access to data on what Busch hit vs LHP in the minors/AAA?

He actually wasn't terrible against LHP in the minors. But his slugging disappeared. He got on base a lot. 

That said, Busch changed his swing this year. He's essentially geared it to hitting RHP, which is fine. I don't think he was ever going to be a good hitting 1b against LHP - so they said "horsefeathers it, just crush RHP and well find someone to play against lefties". Meaning I'm not sure his Triple-A splits matter much any more, either.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Do you have access to data on what Busch hit vs LHP in the minors/AAA?

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Busch has a 150 wRC+ in 28 ABs against lefties since August 1

Then he should be fine later in the game against a lefty.