Brewers (Strider) vs Cubs (Rea): 9/1/25, 3:05pm

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The answer to “Could there possibly be a statistical outlier after 5 months of baseball games” is unequivocally yes, what are we doing here

Looks like the breakeven point is 766 PAs before wOBA finally starts becoming more meaningful than xwOBA

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yes-hitter-xstats-are-useful/

Also periodic reminder as we round yhe bend into the offseason that the best simple projection system for next season is 2/3s of a guy's xwOBA and 1/3rd of their actual, which I find to be an extremely handy rule of thumb.

[soccer10k]

The 2013 Cardinals had a batting line of .269/.332/.401 over 6202 PA. Of those, 1621 came with RISP and in those situations, the 2013 Cardinals hit .330/.402/.463. The second best team that year hit .282 with RISP. The Cardinals had a .377 BABIP with RISP and No. 2 was at .321.

In 2012, the Cardinals hit .264 with RISP with a .293 BABIP. In 2014 they hit .254 with RISP with a .294 BABIP.

Sometimes the stats don’t even out even over the course of a full season.

EDIT: Google tells me that from 1974, the first year of reliable RISP stats, through 2013, the previous best BA with RISP was .311 by the 2007 Tigers. So the 2013 Cardinals hit 19 points better than any other team in the 40 years prior.

Edited September 2, 2025 by soccer10k

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Why does Ian Happ illicit such a meatball reaction in some people? This has been going on for years.

[I owned a Suzuki]

8 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Why does Ian Happ illicit such a meatball reaction in some people? This has been going on for years.

He is a very intelligent guy.

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Why does Ian Happ illicit such a meatball reaction in some people? This has been going on for years.

Probably a couple things at play.  He's kind of a cerebral dude and never gets real excited about things and he's historically kind of streaky, and those cold streaks can look pretty ugly and are much more memorable than when he's scorching hot and hits 9 homers in a month.

[squally1313]

I mean, I guess if I'm feeling generous to the Ian Happ haters, not sure why, he's had 1100 more PAs than any other player in a Cub uniform from 2018 through today, during which time they've won exactly zero playoff games. Over his career, which is basically that stretch plus 2017, he's hit in the 3 spot in the lineup more than anywhere else. 

It's not exactly logical (some would say dumb) to be mad at Ian Happ for the organization not putting better hitters in the lineup for what is coming up on an 8 year stretch. Ian Happ, as a 20 fWAR guy over essentially 7.5-8 seasons is plenty valuable, he's made like $85m in his career so he's not overpaid, etc. But he probably shouldn't be the best player in your offense over that type of stretch, and he has been (Hoerner actually just passed him in total fWAR from 2018 on, in significantly fewer games, because Nico Hoerner rocks, but that's obviously heavily defensively driven). 

Basically, people are probably right to be frustrated with the total team output since Happ has been here, and Happ is overwhelmingly the guy they're likely to have seen while watching said frustrating team. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Problem with Happ this season is that he disappeared for close to 2 plus months, he might get close to his average numbers if he goes off in September, but he was dead when they needed him in June, July and into August.   Hopefully hes back on track for September and into the playoffs because hes a big part of this offense. 

 

 

This isn’t actually true. Actually he is performing to his career numbers now. He doesn’t have to go off in September to make his typical season. He was down maybe 30 days ago, and I remember you asking if he has ever been down to an OPS+ of 101 (where he was 30 day ago) and ended in his typical 115-120. I believe he has before and actually he has already rebounded to that number now, with 1 month to go. He is the same guy he has been every year. A little streaky( and, yes, a little unlucky this year), but a solid player. He shouldn’t be the star of the team. But he is a good ballplayer, period.

[Rcal10]

48 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Why does Ian Happ illicit such a meatball reaction in some people? This has been going on for years.

🤷 But it happens every year. Same with Swanson. And, IMO, if the Cubs did somehow sign Tucker long term, it would happen with him too. 

[SABR Gamer]

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

lol

Typical of the quality of response I’ve come to expect from you. 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

This isn’t actually true. Actually he is performing to his career numbers now. He doesn’t have to go off in September to make his typical season. He was down maybe 30 days ago, and I remember you asking if he has ever been down to an OPS+ of 101 (where he was 30 day ago) and ended in his typical 115-120. I believe he has before and actually he has already rebounded to that number now, with 1 month to go. He is the same guy he has been every year. A little streaky( and, yes, a little unlucky this year), but a solid player. He shouldn’t be the star of the team. But he is a good ballplayer, period.

You two and most everyone on either side of this are having two different conversations about the same events.

the “meatballs” are saying Happ didn’t perform well. And the “statballs” say, no he actually performed at expectations. 
 

The difference is one argument is based on outcome and the other is based on process. 
 
One side is basing their attribution on performance and the other side on fundamentals and the future. 
 

But if you can’t predict with any certainty when the process and the product will come in closer alignment, the prediction may be true, but has little value. 
 

It could be that Happer is two different people at the plate. The left handed version on him is an above average hitter who can do damage. The right handed version is a slightly below average hitter with not much SLG. potential. I don’t know. can a guy slump from one side of the plate? Or have the best version of the weak side not be able to make up for a slumping strong side? 
 

All players go cold and hot, this year they seemed to all be on the same schedule. 

Edited September 2, 2025 by CubinNY

[UMFan83]

Geez guys Ian Happ wasn’t unlucky, he just suddenly started getting better results despite having the same type of batted ball data. 
 

edit: also I didn’t read the last 20 posts or so I’m probably beating a dead horse

Edited September 2, 2025 by UMFan83

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

You two and most everyone on either side of this are having two different conversations about the same events.

the “meatballs” are saying Happ didn’t perform well. And the “statballs” say, no he actually performed at expectations. 
 

The difference is one argument is based on outcome and the other is based on process. 
 
One side is basing their attribution on performance and the other side on fundamentals and the future. 
 

But if you can’t predict with any certainty when the process and the product will come in closer alignment, the prediction may be true, but has little value. 
 

It could be that Happer is two different people at the plate. The left handed version on him is an above average hitter who can do damage. The right handed version is a slightly below average hitter with not much SLG. potential. I don’t know. can a guy slump from one side of the plate? Or have the best version of the weak side not be able to make up for a slumping strong side? 
 

All players go cold and hot, this year they seemed to all be on the same schedule. 

Actually I am talking about actual numbers. Happ is having his typical year right now. He doesn’t need a strong finish (as Chibear suggested and I disagreed with) to get to his norms. He is there. I will leave the argument about actual stats and expected stats to those who argue it better. Jason and squally do a great job explaining it. If you choose not to agree with them, that is your right. But even using his actual outcomes this year, he is at his norm. 

[chibears55]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Actually I am talking about actual numbers. Happ is having his typical year right now. He doesn’t need a strong finish (as Chibear suggested and I disagreed with) to get to his norms. He is there. I will leave the argument about actual stats and expected stats to those who argue it better. Jason and squally do a great job explaining it. If you choose not to agree with them, that is your right. But even using his actual outcomes this year, he is at his norm. 

Career

.247 .342 .446 .788

2025

.238 .337 .410 .747

He needs to have a solid September to reach his career numbers, it is very doable for him though as he isnt that far off.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Career

.247 .342 .446 .788

2025

.238 .337 .410 .747

He needs to have a solid September to reach his career numbers, it is very doable for him though as he isnt that far off.

He is still OPS+ of 115-117. Same as his career. The league has changed. He is still the same level above average as his career numbers say he is going into the year. If he putd up the numbers you are looking for he would be a guy with probably OPS+ of 125 or more. Well above his career norm. 
But actually I am not arguing with you in this. You are using one set of stats and I am using another. That is fine. I was just trying to explain to NYcubs that I was talking about actual numbers, not expected numbers. 

Edited September 3, 2025 by Rcal10

[imb]

this thread is making me feel crazy. did we forget every single thing we've learned in the last 20 years of watching baseball? why are we doing this again (im glad we are because fighting is fun)

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, imb said:

this thread is making me feel crazy. did we forget every single thing we've learned in the last 20 years of watching baseball? why are we doing this again (im glad we are because fighting is fun)

It's times like these I beg Mr. Ken Tremendous to restart FireJoeMorgan.com.  It's time.

[imb]

40 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

It's times like these I beg Mr. Ken Tremendous to restart FireJoeMorgan.com.  It's time.

im afraid the best we can do is meph restarting nsbblol