Cubs (Boyd) vs Rockies (Gordon): 8/31/25, 2:10pm

[Geographyhater8888]

Just now, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Anything to Palencia being ass in non-save situations or am I just being a meatball. He was good last night.

He’s allowed the go ahead game winning run in all 3 non save situations he’s pitched in over the last 2+ weeks. It’s definitely a trend.

[soccer10k]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Cubs determining whether they go 5-4 or 6-3 on their west coast road trip but it doesn’t really matter because they’re terrible. 
 

what do you guys think the other contending teams are doing?

Cubs were 38-22 on June 3. They’re now 78-59. So they’ve gone 40-37 the past 3 months, which is an 84 win pace. It’s pretty clear that the first two months of the season were the fluky portion, but sure, keep telling us that a team that’s played .500 ball for the last 3 months is good.

Yes they’ll be in the playoffs and yes they definitely could win a round or two, or even win the whole thing. But this team is very likely a slightly above average team.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Sometimes Braxton Fulford, Orlando Arcia, and Ryan Ritter are OBP machines. What can you do?

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, soccer10k said:

 

Yes they’ll be in the playoffs and yes they definitely could win a round or two, or even win the whole thing. But this team is very likely a slightly above average team.

That's fair.

The people saying "this team sucks and has always sucked" are the ones being hyperbolid

[itisallpartoftheplan]

2 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Cubs were 38-22 on June 3. They’re now 78-59. So they’ve gone 40-37 the past 3 months, which is an 84 win pace. It’s pretty clear that the first two months of the season were the fluky portion, but sure, keep telling us that a team that’s played .500 ball for the last 3 months is good.

Yes they’ll be in the playoffs and yes they definitely could win a round or two, or even win the whole thing. But this team is very likely a slightly above average team.

Outside the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Red Sox all the other playoff teams are hovering around the same winning percentage since the start of June.

 

[UMFan83]

12 minutes ago, Derwood said:

 

Last 10 games:

Cubs: 6-4
Brewers: 5-5
Blue Jays: 5-5
Yankees: 7-3
Red Sox: 7-3
Tigers: 5-5
Astros: 6-4
Mariners: 5-5
Phillies: 6-4
Mets: 6-4
Dodgers: 5-5
Padres: 5-5

 

How many of them played really bad teams and pitchers all the games?

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Cubs were 38-22 on June 3. They’re now 78-59. So they’ve gone 40-37 the past 3 months, which is an 84 win pace. It’s pretty clear that the first two months of the season were the fluky portion, but sure, keep telling us that a team that’s played .500 ball for the last 3 months is good.

Yes they’ll be in the playoffs and yes they definitely could win a round or two, or even win the whole thing. But this team is very likely a slightly above average team.

Dodgers were 24 games over .500 after 86 games. Been under since. Phillies and Mets have also played pretty close to .500 since that time as well. So are all those teams slightly above average and overachieved early in the season? No matter how or when you win games, if you win more than 90 games you are not slightly above average. You are good. Good doesn’t mean not flawed. Good doesn’t mean you can’t play poorly. But good does mean you can beat anyone. 

[Backtobanks]

22 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Still think the acquisition of Castro was shrewd but boy howdy has he done a whole lot of nothing since coming here

But he can play all over the field.🤣

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

How many of them played really bad teams and pitchers all the games?

Don’t know all teams schedule but I know the Yankees are 6-1 against the white sox and Nationals the last 7. Padres just lost 2 of 3 to the Twins. Brewers played Dbacks and Giants in Milwaukee for 7 of those games. I am pretty sure the Mets just lost to the Marlins. It happens. I would have been happy with a 6-3 trip. But 5-4 isn’t the sky is falling bad. Just not good enough to gain in the division. 

[UMFan83]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Don’t know all teams schedule but I know the Yankees are 6-1 against the white sox and Nationals the last 7. Padres just lost 2 of 3 to the Twins. Brewers played Dbacks and Giants in Milwaukee for 7 of those games. I am pretty sure the Mets just lost to the Marlins. It happens. I would have been happy with a 6-3 trip. But 5-4 isn’t the sky is falling bad. Just not good enough to gain in the division. 

Yeah I’m not necessarily upset about the 5-4. I just don’t like how the offense is playing and has been playing for awhile and closer is concerningly struggling.  I guess every team has holes and flaws, just want to see them step up against a light schedule in time for the playoffs 

[Hortonhearsawho]

34 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Anything to Palencia being ass in non-save situations or am I just being a meatball. He was good last night.

He just hasn't been good no matter what really. 

[Charlie Grimm]

48 minutes ago, Derwood said:

 

Last 10 games:

Cubs: 6-4
Brewers: 5-5
Blue Jays: 5-5
Yankees: 7-3
Red Sox: 7-3
Tigers: 5-5
Astros: 6-4
Mariners: 5-5
Phillies: 6-4
Mets: 6-4
Dodgers: 5-5
Padres: 5-5

 

You can't make up a 6-1/2 game deficit in the standings when the sense of urgency is completely MIA.

[Gjfificifjdej]

At the end of the day they should end up winning 90 games and everyone seemed to be happy with that as the goal back in January and February, aside from the expectations that 90 would win the Central. Realistically this is a low 80s win team that got extra wins in April and May off what will likely be the best 2 months of both Kelly and PCA’s careers offensively. 

[Papa Cub]

2 hours ago, Cubbies1996 said:

It’s no longer a slump. It’s who this team is. Dustin Kelly needs to be canned after this year. 

Exactly!I have said things like “this is not a slump - slumps you work out of eventually.” And guys have took odds with me saying that and made huge stinks about speaking the truth.

They are going to make playoffs and are not a terrible team. They have the talent and potential; however, what many of us fans are seeing (those living in reality) is this: this team is “off” and this play since the break is more than a slump. Something isn’t right. 
 

I agree with you - it’s more than a slump and right now this team is showing us who they are. Hopefully they get right and play like they’re capable, but until then, just call it what it is. They’re playing like ass. 

[Derwood]

T-Mac working the sideline of the Notre Dame v Miami game. Marquee is going to lose her

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Papa Cub said:

Exactly!I have said things like “this is not a slump - slumps you work out of eventually.” And guys have took odds with me saying that and made huge stinks about speaking the truth.

They are going to make playoffs and are not a terrible team. They have the talent and potential; however, what many of us fans are seeing (those living in reality) is this: this team is “off” and this play since the break is more than a slump. Something isn’t right. 
 

I agree with you - it’s more than a slump and right now this team is showing us who they are. Hopefully they get right and play like they’re capable, but until then, just call it what it is. They’re playing like ass. 

But what about the handful of other playoff teams doing the exact same thing? Are they more a team who wins 84 games or are they more like their start? Why are the Cubs strictly an average team who got lucky to be 16 games over .500 after 80 games, but the Phillies are good because they were also 16 games over .500 and no better than a little over 500 since. Or the Dodgers who weee 24 games over 500 and since then played under 500 ball. Cubs are what their record says they are They are a good team with flaws that will win 90 games. They could win in the playoffs just as easy as any other team who is in the playoffs. Will they win it? Probably not. But I would say that about every team who will be in the playoffs and be right 11 of the 12 times I say it. 

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, soccer10k said:

Cubs were 38-22 on June 3. They’re now 78-59. So they’ve gone 40-37 the past 3 months, which is an 84 win pace. It’s pretty clear that the first two months of the season were the fluky portion, but sure, keep telling us that a team that’s played .500 ball for the last 3 months is good.

Yes they’ll be in the playoffs and yes they definitely could win a round or two, or even win the whole thing. But this team is very likely a slightly above average team.

This is a team that the pessimistic fans thought was a mid 80s win team, the optimistic fans thought they would get close to 90. No one came in here thinking this was some World Series or bust juggernaut. It’s August 31 and if we play 500 ball we clear 90 wins and we’re a mathematical certainty to make the playoffs. Being mad that we’re not playing as well as the stretch of play that you don’t think we’re as good as is dumb. 
 

cherry picking a specific date and not like, the fact that we’re 8-6 in a stretch we played the best team in baseball and then went on a west coast trip (93 win pace) is bad faith. It’s a playoff baseball team. 

[soccer10k]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Dodgers were 24 games over .500 after 86 games. Been under since. Phillies and Mets have also played pretty close to .500 since that time as well. So are all those teams slightly above average and overachieved early in the season? No matter how or when you win games, if you win more than 90 games you are not slightly above average. You are good. Good doesn’t mean not flawed. Good doesn’t mean you can’t play poorly. But good does mean you can beat anyone. 

Maybe those teams are slightly above average as well. I don't know. I haven't looked at their extended stretches. But when a team goes on an offensive heater for 2 months at a rate only a handful of teams have ever done, that's not sustainable. Through April, the Cubs were on pace to score 961 runs, which only 21 teams have ever done since 1900. Through May, they were on pace to score 933 runs, which only 39 teams have ever done. That wasn't going to continue. And when it didn't, the Cubs stopped playing like a 100 win team and started playing like an 84 win team.

Each full season from 2017 to 2023 featured 3+ teams that won 100 games. Last year there were none and this year, unless somebody goes like 21-5, there might only be 1 in Milwaukee (and Milwaukee would have to go 15-9 to do it). So these last two years have been different from what we got used to.

[soccer10k]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

This is a team that the pessimistic fans thought was a mid 80s win team, the optimistic fans thought they would get close to 90. No one came in here thinking this was some World Series or bust juggernaut. It’s August 31 and if we play 500 ball we clear 90 wins and we’re a mathematical certainty to make the playoffs. Being mad that we’re not playing as well as the stretch of play that you don’t think we’re as good as is dumb. 
 

cherry picking a specific date and not like, the fact that we’re 8-6 in a stretch we played the best team in baseball and then went on a west coast trip (93 win pace) is bad faith. It’s a playoff baseball team. 

So we shouldn't cherry pick a specific date to make our argument but it's okay to say we're 8-6 in the last 14 while playing - except for 3 games - at least decent baseball teams? Got it.

I don't care about the idiots who think this isn't playoff team. They're not serious people. I think most people, like myself, are concerned that this team went on an offensive heater for 2 months and have been a .500 team for 3 months which, last time I checked, is half the season.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Maybe those teams are slightly above average as well. I don't know. I haven't looked at their extended stretches. But when a team goes on an offensive heater for 2 months at a rate only a handful of teams have ever done, that's not sustainable. Through April, the Cubs were on pace to score 961 runs, which only 21 teams have ever done since 1900. Through May, they were on pace to score 933 runs, which only 39 teams have ever done. That wasn't going to continue. And when it didn't, the Cubs stopped playing like a 100 win team and started playing like an 84 win team.

Each full season from 2017 to 2023 featured 3+ teams that won 100 games. Last year there were none and this year, unless somebody goes like 21-5, there might only be 1 in Milwaukee (and Milwaukee would have to go 15-9 to do it). So these last two years have been different from what we got used to.

So if you are saying there are no great teams, I agree. But the Cubs are among a a group of 12 good teams who can win the WS. Period. Most likely they won’t. But they can. There are 18 teams who can’t say that.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

So we shouldn't cherry pick a specific date to make our argument but it's okay to say we're 8-6 in the last 14 while playing - except for 3 games - at least decent baseball teams? Got it.

I don't care about the idiots who think this isn't playoff team. They're not serious people. I think most people, like myself, are concerned that this team went on an offensive heater for 2 months and have been a .500 team for 3 months which, last time I checked, is half the season.

I’m going to go on a limb here and say if you cherry picked any 80-85 game stretch of any team in baseball this season, maybe with the exception of then Brewers, you can find a stretch they played 500 ball, give or take a game or two. So does that make them an 80-84 win team too? 

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

So we shouldn't cherry pick a specific date to make our argument but it's okay to say we're 8-6 in the last 14 while playing - except for 3 games - at least decent baseball teams? Got it.

I don't care about the idiots who think this isn't playoff team. They're not serious people. I think most people, like myself, are concerned that this team went on an offensive heater for 2 months and have been a .500 team for 3 months which, last time I checked, is half the season.

I think everyone wants their team to be playing elite baseball when it matters. I agree the cubs haven’t in a couple months. But the brewers doing it in July/August is also not indicative of them doing it in October. 
 

Teams play above and below their true talent level over the course of a six month season. Throwing out their very good stretch because it isn’t historically sustainable while taking their play since then as gospel isn’t a fair way to evaluate the team. The team killed it offensively for two months, and then…fill in your own adjectives since then about the offense, but as frustrating as it was, they played at an 85 win pace. Is it the 2016 cubs? No. Is it decidedly worse than the rest of their competition this year? Also very much no. They’ve punched their ticket to have a shot in October, baseball playoffs are a dumb crapshoot and they will probably lose because every team will probably lose. It’s still a 90+ win team. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

They’ve punched their ticket to have a shot in October, baseball playoffs are a dumb crapshoot and they will probably lose because every team will probably lose. It’s still a 90+ win team. 

This is what I have been saying for days now. They can win. Will they? Probably not. But 11 of 12 teams won’t win. But all of the team in the playoffs can win. 

[soccer10k]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

IThrowing out their very good stretch because it isn’t historically sustainable while taking their play since then as gospel isn’t a fair way to evaluate the team.

I'm not throwing it out. But going forward if you're asking me which version of the Cubs offense we're more likely to see, I think we can both agree that it's the June-August offense rather than the April-May offense. Does that mean there's no way the April-May offense comes back in Sept and Oct? No, of course not. But I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cubs wRC+ by month:

• Mar/Apr: 122
• May: 115
• Jun: 106
• Jul: 114
• Aug: 88

Their median month is a 114 wRC+, which is roughly the 2nd best offense in baseball.  Their 2nd worst month by wRC+ would be a top 10 offense for the season, maybe Top 5 after including their elite baserunning.