Orioles (Sugano) vs Cubs (Boyd): 8/2/25, 1:20pm

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

This team has scored 4 runs in 2 games against horrible pitching. What makes you think facing the Pirates will be any better

You're better than this. 

[Stratos]

Thielbar and Braser etc weren't going to pitch like Mariano Rivera the entire year.

Hoping the bats get going again soon.  Play Castro every day for the next couple of weeks and give all the everyday guys a day or 2 off.  The ASB didn't do much for some guys so let's just hope they start hitting.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Stratos

[Stratos]

5-5 our last 10 games, it's not the end of the world.  Some of our big bats are flat, they're too good to stay that way.

[SpongeWorthy]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

This might be the most depressing place on the internet right now. Come on guys

one of these MLB seasons we’ll learn how to handle the peaks and valleys. 

we've been a .500 ball club in the aggregate since 2019 so the "peak" is basically the first couple of months of this season out of the last 5-6 years with probably the biggest divisional resource advantage in a big 4 sport 

 

[muntjack]

We're a traumatized fanbase.  Got the Big One out of the way, but it's hard not to revert to the anxiety we've always felt when the team is good, just waiting for  the football to be yanked away at the last second. 

[17 Seconds]

3 hours ago, Caesar said:

Can Giants, Reds or Cards knock them out?

the reds have a chance to get right back in it this week against the cubs

[Geographyhater8888]

I wonder how many times a team’s had a player go 4-4 with a starting pitcher throwing 7 shutout innings in a loss.

What a fitting way to honor Sanbergs career as a Cub. It would’ve been even more eerie if Nico was playing second base.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Derwood said:

"A walk is as good as a hit" isn't true when you're down 1 in the 9th. Need to string hits together

They’re not. Not according to how it’s calculated in wOBA. Walk’s are weighted at .69 while singles are weighed at .888 as an exponent in their calculation. 
 

This website would agree with you and it’s disappointing that you only have 1 thumbs up.

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I don't know, but the 2025 post-TDL Orioles suck. The only guy in their lineup who is scary won the game today.

If PCA Busch Suzuki Kelly and Boyd have officially arrived then we’ll be in good shape. The above 3 hitters will finish with between 30-40+ homers, and all 4 a mid-high 800 OPS from all of them and no dead arm from Boyd in the final months. We’d have to assume they’ll  break out of their collective slumps in the case of Tucker Seiya and Busch to a lesser degree back to their pre all star break trajectory. If this dwindling impressive sample size holds up and trends back positively.
 

Are they is key here. We’ll need them to be with a so so pitching staff and for Tucker to pick things up which I am confident he will. PCA is the real deal but to the incredibly high degree he’s been as a slugger, we’ll find out.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

15 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Lmao.. of course

Had many chances to put them away and boom they blow the lead late

Yep, Their guy hit the 2 strike two out meatball out of the park in the park with two on in the 8th, our guy actually got a couple of mistakes in the same situation and was only able to foul them off in the 9th.

Not saying hitting a baseball is easy, but the difference in the end their guy executed and made our pitcher pay for his meatball and PCA was not able to. 

Of course there were chances earlier and if Tuck, Seiya and Happ keep hitting like they have the last month we gonna struggle.  I mean walks are nice and everything but we need more than that from them. 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, CubUgly said:

Yep, Their guy hit the 2 strike two out meatball out of the park in the park with two on in the 8th, our guy actually got a couple of mistakes in the same situation and was only able to foul them off in the 9th.

Not saying hitting a baseball is easy, but the difference in the end their guy executed and made our pitcher pay for his meatball and PCA was not able to. 

Of course there were chances earlier and if Tuck, Seiya and Happ keep hitting like they have the last month we gonna struggle.  I mean walks are nice and everything but we need more than that from them. 

This is the first time they’ve trailed by a run heading into the 9th since June 24th interestingly enough. They haven’t really had a late inning comeback since that Sunday in Cincinnati in late May and haven’t had a 9th inning comeback since Amaya homered vs LA with 2 out to tie the game at 10. 
 

They’ve had opportunities but haven’t really had any comebacks of late.

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, squally1313 said:

This is collectively insane. We're one pitch away from being 16-10 since July 1. We have to settle for 15-11 and people are talking about the Cardinals (the horsefeathers 8-16 in July Cardinals) catching us. Christ. 

Wait squally. They are 15-11 in their last 26 games of this horrendous slump they are in. This time when they are only playing to a 93 win pace? Reading this thread I would have thought they were losing WAY more games then they have won recently. So they have 52 to go. If they continue this pace the rest of the year they end up with 94 wins and we have people suggesting if they even make the playoffs they will be the last team in? Wow, that is some serious overreaction. Brewers are now 22 games over .500. They are very good. Might win 95+. If they do they deserve the division. But that doesn’t mean the Cubs suck. In fact, if the Cubs go 3-2 at Wrigley and gain one more game in the other 47 games each team plays, both teams win 94 games and the Cubs win the division. Brewers would have to go 28-24 to get to 94 wins. That is an 87-88 win pace team from here on out. Still a quality team. Probably a pace at the beginning of the year none of us thought them capable of doing. And good. It is not them falling flat. It is them coming back to reality and their talent level. Now none of this might not happen. Brewers might go on and win 110 games. Cubs might lose 30 of their next 52. But there is definitely a very reasonable scenario where the Cubs absolutely make the playoffs and even one where they have a real chance at the division without something crazy having to happen. 

[squally1313]

Since July 1 the cubs and Mets are an identical 15-11, the padres are a half game better, the Phillies are 12-13, and the dodgers are 11-15. Guess the brewers should just coast to the pennant since all these other teams are Mediocre and nothing can change in the next two months. 

[Soul]

The only thing that matters is what they do moving forward.  We know seasons ebb and flow.  We know the Cubs had a time when they were blowing up team after team just like the Brewers are right now.  It wasn’t just a blip.  It was a real, sustained run.  It’s the same team.  The Cubs don’t have to get back to that pace.  But they do need to have a few guys pull out of their slumps and hopefully new BP arms bolster the later innings on the back end.  Even if they don’t win the division the top WC spot is entirely reasonable.  Get it done, starting today.

[Geographyhater8888]

48 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Since July 1 the cubs and Mets are an identical 15-11, the padres are a half game better, the Phillies are 12-13, and the dodgers are 11-15. Guess the brewers should just coast to the pennant since all these other teams are Mediocre and nothing can change in the next two months. 

Fair or not, April-may has set a bar in the minds of fans that this team hasn’t reached since. Unsurprisingly Suzuki is no longer on pace for 40+ home runs, Busch’s OPS has dropped into the 800’s and people are chasing that dragon that wasn’t sustainable and haven’t yet come to grips with the fact that this team will likely be a low 90’s win team as projected before the season started., which they would’ve accepted at the beginning of the season.

It’s also uncommon for a team to consistent in terms of very little highs and lows and long, sustained winning streaks where people can point to that and say they’re capable of going on a heater at any time including the playoffs. They’ve been more of a Ferris wheel ride than a roller coaster with only a 5 game winning streak and a 3 game losing streak.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

I’d love to know how many times a team had a hitter go 4-4 with a pitcher throwing 7 shutout innings in a loss.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Wait squally. They are 15-11 in their last 26 games of this horrendous slump they are in. This time when they are only playing to a 93 win pace? Reading this thread I would have thought they were losing WAY more games then they have won recently. So they have 52 to go. If they continue this pace the rest of the year they end up with 94 wins and we have people suggesting if they even make the playoffs they will be the last team in? Wow, that is some serious overreaction. Brewers are now 22 games over .500. They are very good. Might win 95+. If they do they deserve the division. But that doesn’t mean the Cubs suck. In fact, if the Cubs go 3-2 at Wrigley and gain one more game in the other 47 games each team plays, both teams win 94 games and the Cubs win the division. Brewers would have to go 28-24 to get to 94 wins. That is an 87-88 win pace team from here on out. Still a quality team. Probably a pace at the beginning of the year none of us thought them capable of doing. And good. It is not them falling flat. It is them coming back to reality and their talent level. Now none of this might not happen. Brewers might go on and win 110 games. Cubs might lose 30 of their next 52. But there is definitely a very reasonable scenario where the Cubs absolutely make the playoffs and even one where they have a real chance at the division without something crazy having to happen. 

The season has been more of a Ferris wheel than a roller coaster ride and the lack of winning streaks stretching longer than 5 games has left fans in need of a dopamine hit. April-May set the bar high in fans minds and haven’t yet accepted the fact that this is very likely a low 90’s win team as projected before season started and still chasing that early season dragon.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Fair or not, April-may has set a bar in the minds of fans that this team hasn’t reached since. Unsurprisingly Suzuki is no longer on pace for 40+ home runs, Busch’s OPS has dropped into the 800’s and people are chasing that dragon that wasn’t sustainable and haven’t yet come to grips with the fact that this team will likely be a low 90’s win team as projected before the season started., which they would’ve accepted at the beginning of the season.

It’s also uncommon for a team to consistent in terms of very little highs and lows and long, sustained winning streaks where people can point to that and say they’re capable of going on a heater at any time including the playoffs. They’ve been more of a Ferris wheel ride than a roller coaster with only a 5 game winning streak and a 3 game losing streak.

Very few people projected them to be a low 90s win team. We played like an upper 90s win team for two months and, depending on how much bad faith you want to bring in when picking the sample size, have played like an 84-89 win team since then. The Brewers running this hot is really starting to break people’s brains. Go look at the dodgers over the last month, or the Phillies, or the Yankees. The astros are 3-7 in their last ten. This stuff happens to everybody. I have a bad taste in my mouth from the failure of the trade deadline like everyone else. But the team is still good. 

[Geographyhater8888]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Very few people projected them to be a low 90s win team. We played like an upper 90s win team for two months and, depending on how much bad faith you want to bring in when picking the sample size, have played like an 84-89 win team since then. The Brewers running this hot is really starting to break people’s brains. Go look at the dodgers over the last month, or the Phillies, or the Yankees. The astros are 3-7 in their last ten. This stuff happens to everybody. I have a bad taste in my mouth from the failure of the trade deadline like everyone else. But the team is still good. 

Zips projected 91 wins before the season started. There’s no bad faith on my part, I’m telling you the pulse of the average fan. Coupled with being traumatized by Milwaukee since 2018 you’ll have a lot of people in panic mode fair or not. The Dodgers are defending World Series champs and a modern dynasty and are given the benefit of the doubt that they’ll figure things out eventually. Yankees and Phillies are also seasoned playoff contenders outside of the Yankees, there’s less question marks about the other two teams.

People crave dopamine hits and the lack of an 8 game winning streak for example has left that void. If this was a seasoned playoff contender then people would be less concerned.

Top of the order coming through and stepping on the throats of teams by completing sweeps, pulling away with insurance runs and a lack of home runs during this mediocre stretch is what needs to be fixed, as well as the number of lopsided losses. People expect little of the pitching staff so the offense bars the brunt of some of the blame.

People focus on this more than the lack of any long losing streaks or stretches of losing baseball. It is what it is. If Busch, Suzuki, PCA, Kelly, Boyd etc Were seasoned all star caliber players like they’ve played up to at this point of the season and not all having career years that may or not stick then people would give them the benefit of the doubt like the dodgers.

right now they’ve been playing 500 ball for 2 months without the assurance that some of the teams top performers are who they are or played above of their weight in the early months, which hasn’t been 100% the case either at all. Not with PCA at least.

I’m not at all on any ledge but trying to play devils advocate here.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[17 Seconds]

i seem to remember zips being the only system that was that high on the cubs. i think most projections (and fan predictions) had them at like mid to upper 80s

[Derwood]

17 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i seem to remember zips being the only system that was that high on the cubs. i think most projections (and fan predictions) had them at like mid to upper 80s

no projection system is going to guess that 4 or 5 hitters all have career years at the same time

[cubfansince77]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Very few people projected them to be a low 90s win team. We played like an upper 90s win team for two months and, depending on how much bad faith you want to bring in when picking the sample size, have played like an 84-89 win team since then. The Brewers running this hot is really starting to break people’s brains. Go look at the dodgers over the last month, or the Phillies, or the Yankees. The astros are 3-7 in their last ten. This stuff happens to everybody. I have a bad taste in my mouth from the failure of the trade deadline like everyone else. But the team is still good. 

Quality post and points, especially about Milwaukee....jebus I'm SICK of them. Even more sick of every time I turn around seems they're playing the Nats or PItt or the Rockies or Arizona....I've read on here we have 'the easier schedule' in the 2nd half of the season. Not in August. We might be 4-6 games down by 9/1 at this rate and that'll mean playing strictly for a wild card.

[cubfansince77]

23 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

i seem to remember zips being the only system that was that high on the cubs. i think most projections (and fan predictions) had them at like mid to upper 80s

Sounds about right...I had us at 87 wins but now could see us winning 90-92 but that won't win the division, unless MIL has some injuries along the way

[Geographyhater8888]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

no projection system is going to guess that 4 or 5 hitters all have career years at the same time

Probably had more to due with projecting a weak division and padding some wins vs Milwaukee which obviously isn’t the case. 6 months of a healthy Steele and Taillon and it’s not that unreasonable. Neither is high 80’s either and would be a disappointing finish with where they’re at.

Edited August 3, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

The cubs were projected to win 86 games per zips. &nbsp
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-regretful-2025-zips-projections/
 

they did the thing where they did the team preview and if you added it all up to a replacement level number you ended up in the low-mid 90s but then the standings came out and they were pretty regressed across the board for playing time considerations.