Cubs (Rea) vs Twins (Paddack): 7/10/25, 12:10pm

[Outshined_One]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

It's times like this when I miss having to work the other 10 months of the year I have too much time on my hands currently.

You good, fam. I like your data and analysis, and you bring a lot of positivity to the table.

It's the frustration of the results in game, and I get it, but I feel like every game thread for the last week or two has devolved into the exact same Shaw and Happ arguments.

[Derwood]

6 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

 

Cripes, I can't wait for this team to make a trade.

Oh, they'll bitch about that too

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

You good, fam. I like your data and analysis, and you bring a lot of positivity to the table.

It's the frustration of the results in game, and I get it, but I feel like every game thread for the last week or two has devolved into the exact same Shaw and Happ arguments.

It's always something. 

I remember the great debates of 2017-2020 where the Cubs offense was "not consistent" or something. That one lasted three damn years. Thankfully, BABIP luck will likely change before then for these two.

[Outshined_One]

Just now, Derwood said:

Oh, they'll bitch about that too

My only hope it's of the "Y U TRADE BALLY HE SO GOOD?!?!" variety rather than the usual PTR and Only the Cubs dreck.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

24 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Someone mentioned about being glad im not management, can you imagine a roster some of you would have built with the all "bad luck" team ? You'd be down in the standings with the Rockies and Whitesox, but it ok cause it just bad luck 🤷‍♂️

Probably for the best to leave this part out when you proudly proclaim you don't know how expected stats work.  Don't want to engage with that type of thing?  Cool, everyone can fan their own way.  But stridently carrying on about how the thing you refuse to try to understand is nonsense isn't it either.

[Derwood]

PCA homering off a lefty

Again

Love it

[DrCub]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would like to introduce you to Luis Arreaz. Now, I want to be very clear here in that I am in no way comparing Matt Shaw to Luis Arraez in any way other than an anecdote, but he perpetually is among the 1% of EV and hard hit. Thing is this; many people misuse EV and hard hit% in that they use it like it was a silver bullet. 

Hitters like Matt Shaw (and Arraez) - high swing, high contact have lower EV's. When a hitter swings and misses, they don't create and EV, it's a miss. When a hitter strikes out, they don't make an EV. Hitters who make a lot of contact trade K's for weak-ass contact, thus, lowering EV. This also creates more opportunities. If I hit the ball in play, even weakly, I have many times  .120-.200 xBA or something. Yeah, most of the time I'm getting out, but a decent amount of the time? I'm getting on. K's are always outs so they don't factor into BABIP.

Beyond that, Shaw's sprint speed should add to his BABIP significantly. Shaw should run a pretty high BABIP regardless.

This isn't to say that EV can't improve! And Matt Shaw is. I've shown this chart a few times, but here it is again:

Don't you think it's weird that Shaw is making, consistently, better contact and yet his BABIP isn't following suit? Look at his first half...notice how they went together? 

So we have two things to understand:

1. Matt Shaw's EV's will likely remain lower due to his makeup.
2. Matt Shaw hits a lot of balls in play and thus his BABIP should help him more than others because he will generate more chances
3. Even despite this, we should be seeing significantly better BABIP based on the progress under the hood for Shaw

I hope you have a really good chiropractor.   With all the banging your head against the wall, you’re going to need it…..

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, DrCub said:

I hope you have a really good chiropractor.   With all the banging your head against the wall, you’re going to need it…..

I teach middle school. Repeating the same thing over-and-over again is what I do 80% of the time from August-through-May. 

15% of the time I ask "what are you doing, why would you do that?"
5% of the time I drink (always after work, mind you).

Frankly, baseball season and writing on NSBB is basically the same thing.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

You good, fam. I like your data and analysis, and you bring a lot of positivity to the table.

It's the frustration of the results in game, and I get it, but I feel like every game thread for the last week or two has devolved into the exact same Shaw and Happ arguments.

Don’t forget Dansby

[chibears55]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

So, you realize that Matt Shaw's data is significantly better than what Pete Crow-Armstrong's was at this same time last year, do you not? How'd that work out? 

Do you think sending Matt Shaw back to Iowa will "build his confidence?" A place he has been 40% better than league average? Will he just come back up to the Cubs and because he hits a home run off of the corpse of Matt Fulmer, he'll be ready to hit 98mph? The "confidence" argument always confuses me a bit. If I was struggling at work, and my boss took my responsibilities away and gave me obviously easier tasks that I had already shown mastery of, I wouldn't feel any better, and I wouldn't feel any more confident. Why we think baseball players are any different is beyond me. 

I also wouldn't mind a 3b, but not a starting type. The Cubs need a Castro, an Urias; padding. They have the 3rd best offense by almost any metric, they dont need a starting 3b

Sending him back is more about giving him a long pause from what going on with him now at this level and give him a chance to reset.

PCA struggle came in June and July and he only made 38 starts in those months cause they had the benifit of Tauchman to give him the days off to ease his struggle, he was able to turn it on in August because of that.

Shaw dont have that luxury because they have noone to give him those days off as he is the guy for 3B.

If Hoyer gets a guy to give him those days off to ease him back in then cool.

[PeanutPunch33]

Solid bounce back game 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Sending him back is more about giving him a long pause from what going on with him now at this level and give him a chance to reset.

PCA struggle came in June and July and he only made 38 starts in those months cause they had the benifit of Tauchman to give him the days off to ease his struggle, he was able to turn it on in August because of that.

Shaw dont have that luxury because they have noone to give him those days off as he is the guy for 3B.

If Hoyer gets a guy to give him those days off to ease him back in then cool.

Matt Shaw has made 42 starts between May 19th and today. So...four more.

[chibears55]

45 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Ok what’d they do with their struggling rookie last year 

They gave him plenty of non start days when he struggled in June and July because they at least had Tauchman, Shaw dont have that benefit now.

[Rcal10]

Second outstanding game in a row by Rea. 

[Tryptamine]

Man I came in here for the PCA double dong celebration and instead I get this horsefeathers.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

Man I came in here for the PCA double dong celebration and instead I get this horsefeathers.

You have to have age verification to be apart of the Double-Dong Party.

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Man I came in here for the PCA double dong celebration and instead I get this horsefeathers.

Wrong tab?

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They gave him plenty of non start days when he struggled in June and July because they at least had Tauchman, Shaw dont have that benefit now.

Shaw has started 42 of 45 games since coming up. PCA started 38 of 51 games in a weird middle stretch of the season but got 410 MLB PAs. If your argument is down to....6-7 starts Shaw shouldn't have had, then, sure, I guess? Berti has kinda fallen on his face compared to where he was last year, it might say something about what Craig/the FO sees that they're continually going with the bad in Shaw over the bad in Berti.

As an aside, you could do the same thing with Amaya. 

[Geographyhater8888]

I came here to bash Happ too. That’ll be the theme of tomorrow’s game thread.

Edited July 10, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

Shaw has yanked two balls REAL hard, just foul down the line

[DrCub]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I teach middle school. Repeating the same thing over-and-over again is what I do 80% of the time from August-through-May. 

15% of the time I ask "what are you doing, why would you do that?"
5% of the time I drink (always after work, mind you).

Frankly, baseball season and writing on NSBB is basically the same thing.

Always……..wink wink.  I get it.  Administrators could be lurking.  

[Rob]

PCA up to 5.0 fWAR, tying him with Corey Patterson's 2004 for the best season by a Cubs CF in my lifetime.

We aren't yet at the all-star break. Hack Wilson's record 8.0 in 1930 is potentially in danger. And PCA would only need to clear 6.6 to reach second place.

 

[Rob]

Also, that makes PCA the first in the NL to 5.0 fWAR. Trailing Judge (7.2) and Raleigh (5.8) in the AL. Next closest in the NL is Ohtani at 4.2.

[Tryptamine]

25 HR and 27 SB and we're not quite to the ASB. It's going to take something really unfortunate happening for PCA not to hit 40/40 this year. 

[chibears55]

Funny how some of you are not complaining now about Happ and Shaw hitting but im sure if I didn't post about how I think Hoyer might make a decision of sending him back after the break and bring someone else up til he finds another 3Bmen, you all know damn well you'd be moaning about Happ 0 for 5 and again how Shaw looks lost at the plate like you always do.

It ok, I'll stand in this field by myself here and I obviously hope they both go off and start hitting because as much as I bellyache about it, I do want them to succeed.

Like I said, if Shaw continues to struggle, nobody should be upset about it then.