Cubs (Horton) vs Tigers (Flaherty): 6/8/25, 12:40pm

[Brandon Glick]

Heck of a test for Horton against an old NL Central foe in Flaherty.

[Geographyhater8888]

Really want a win today just to make a statement. It’d be nice to take 2/3 vs a top team after losing 2/3 to the Mets, Phillies and Giants a month ago.

[Derwood]

Team ERA is down to 3.68, but BR only gives them a 2.7 bWAR.

The offense has an 18.9 bWAR

[CUBDOM4life]

[Geographyhater8888]

Wrong thread but Busch still had a 101 OPS+ in 100 PAs vs lefties last year. What am I missing with the instance on platooning him? Already on pace for a 5.3 BWAR in limited abs.

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Team ERA is down to 3.68, but BR only gives them a 2.7 bWAR.

The offense has an 18.9 bWAR

The 2.8 dwar and park factors is my guess. 

Edited June 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

11 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The 2.8 dwar and park factors is my guess. 

negative bWAR's from Brown, Merryweather, Morgan, Pressley, Pearson, etc.

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, Derwood said:

negative bWAR's from Brown, Merryweather, Morgan, Pressley, Pearson, etc.

Still 23rd in bwar despite being 10th in ERA with a team era .3 runs above league average, inspite of those guys listed. Their stench still lingers.

Edited June 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[muntjack]

Time to hit Shaw 5th

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Time to hit Shaw 5th

I wouldn’t expect them to do that just yet, But I do agree with you, against a lefty he does make sense there. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Wrong thread but Busch still had a 101 OPS+ in 100 PAs vs lefties last year. What am I missing with the instance on platooning him? Already on pace for a 5.3 BWAR in limited abs.

Maybe he is in that pace because Counsel picks the match ups he wants for Busch. 

[Geographyhater8888]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe he is in that pace because Counsel picks the match ups he wants for Busch. 

Maybe or because of? Anyways, if he’s your future everyday 1st baseman I’d like to see some more at bats he lefties. He can’t be much worse than Justin Turners sub 600 OPS, and in 100 PAs last season was a lot better too. 
 

 

Edited June 8, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[gflore34]

I'm certain Cade was watching talking to Jameson last night.  Key is FB location, miss low, miss high, don't miss over the middle of the plate, if Cade hits his spots today he'll dominate.  He has yet to consistently hit his spots maybe, today is the day for that to happen.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Wrong thread but Busch still had a 101 OPS+ in 100 PAs vs lefties last year. What am I missing with the instance on platooning him? Already on pace for a 5.3 BWAR in limited abs.

He's not good against LHP, the OPS+ is hiding the reality. 

Last year he had a 103 wRC+ against LHP, yes. But he did so with a .344 BABIP that was very FB% heavy. He saw a significant reduction in hard hits against LHP as well while keeping similar K% and BB%. So the 103 wRC+ is likely inflated by some soft-flyball BABIP luck and is unsustainable. It was also in 90 PA's, likely more curated than most samples...he hit against the lefties the Cubs wanted him to and the tough ones he was shielded against, another reason to believe the 103 wRC+ is inflated. 

Secondly he's been terrible against them when he's gotten chances this year, rocking a 47 wRC+. Is that probably affected a bit by small sample, bad luck and playing sparingly? Yeah probably! Meaning the truth of "how well does Busch hit LHP?" is between the 47 wRC+ and the 103 wRC+ last year. It's likely not good enough for him to play against LHP.  He's not entirely futile against them, but there's no reason the Cubs should feel the need to play a 90 wRC+ hitter if they don't have to. The Cubs still believe that Turner's the better option.

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's not good against LHP, the OPS+ is hiding the reality. 

Last year he had a 103 wRC+ against LHP, yes. But he did so with a .344 BABIP that was very FB% heavy. He saw a significant reduction in hard hits against LHP as well while keeping similar K% and BB%. So the 103 wRC+ is likely inflated by some soft-flyball BABIP luck and is unsustainable. It was also in 90 PA's, likely more curated than most samples...he hit against the lefties the Cubs wanted him to and the tough ones he was shielded against, another reason to believe the 103 wRC+ is inflated. 

Secondly he's been terrible against them when he's gotten chances this year, rocking a 47 wRC+. Is that probably affected a bit by small sample, bad luck and playing sparingly? Yeah probably! Meaning the truth of "how well does Busch hit LHP?" is between the 47 wRC+ and the 103 wRC+ last year. It's likely not good enough for him to play against LHP.  He's not entirely futile against them, but there's no reason the Cubs should feel the need to play a 90 wRC+ hitter if they don't have to. The Cubs still believe that Turner's the better option.

Think Jed will look for a LHP hitting specialist at the TDL?  Is there a world where Turner is kept and better bat vs. LHP is brought to spot Busch at 1B?

[Derwood]

Called it:

 

[javy knows my name]

Lol are you horsefeathers kidding me with Cohen today? 

I don't hate him as much as a lot of you but it's still really insulting how seldom we get the best product

[JHBulls]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Called it:

 

Was going to post that you called it. So very predictable.

[DYMNO]

Dear baseball gods,

I’m sorry for everything, and I promise not to do it again. Please stop punishing everyone for my shortcomings. Please stop subjecting us to Alex Cohen. Pretty please. 
 

Penitently yours,

DYMNO

[Geographyhater8888]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

He's not good against LHP, the OPS+ is hiding the reality. 

Last year he had a 103 wRC+ against LHP, yes. But he did so with a .344 BABIP that was very FB% heavy. He saw a significant reduction in hard hits against LHP as well while keeping similar K% and BB%. So the 103 wRC+ is likely inflated by some soft-flyball BABIP luck and is unsustainable. It was also in 90 PA's, likely more curated than most samples...he hit against the lefties the Cubs wanted him to and the tough ones he was shielded against, another reason to believe the 103 wRC+ is inflated. 

Secondly he's been terrible against them when he's gotten chances this year, rocking a 47 wRC+. Is that probably affected a bit by small sample, bad luck and playing sparingly? Yeah probably! Meaning the truth of "how well does Busch hit LHP?" is between the 47 wRC+ and the 103 wRC+ last year. It's likely not good enough for him to play against LHP.  He's not entirely futile against them, but there's no reason the Cubs should feel the need to play a 90 wRC+ hitter if they don't have to. The Cubs still believe that Turner's the better option.

I appreciate the long, detailed explanation. I’d this something that he can improve on in the future or he simply doesn’t see the ball well vs left handers and there’s little he or the coaches can fix? It limits your offense 3/10 games or so.

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Wrong thread but Busch still had a 101 OPS+ in 100 PAs vs lefties last year. What am I missing with the instance on platooning him? Already on pace for a 5.3 BWAR in limited abs.

I think it just Counsell way of getting Turner his AB for now as he is basically the only true bat off the bench now and this is how he's keeping him active.

Berti and Brujan are just runners

 

Hoyer really needs to address his bench for the second half of season 

[Tryptamine]

Horton digging a hole for himself

[chibears55]

10 minutes ago, DYMNO said:

Dear baseball gods,

I’m sorry for everything, and I promise not to do it again. Please stop punishing everyone for my shortcomings. Please stop subjecting us to Alex Cohen. Pretty please. 
 

Penitently yours,

DYMNO

Cohen not that bad, I bet most first year PBP guys struggled or wasn't that smooth with their veteran color guy.  At least he wants to be there unlike Boog who needs to be off half the games.  

Be interesting to see what happens next season when ESPN not doing baseball anymore if Boog signs elsewhere or if he sticks if he continues to miss a bunch of games. 

[chibears55]

Tough first inning,  Cubs all go down on strike and first 2 hitters reach on Cade. 

[JBears79]

Horton constantly puts himself at a disadvantage early.