Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-1-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa vs. Syracuse, 1:08 pm
Knoxville vs. Birmingham, 1:00 pm
South Bend at Quad Cities, 1:00 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Augusta, 5:35 pm

ACL Cubs have the day off

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Iowa; TBD
Knoxville: RHP Sam Armstrong (45 IP, 4.80 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 34 K, 14 BB)
South Bend: RHP Kenten Egbert (32 IP, 7.03 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 24 K, 8 BB)
Myrtle Beach: TBD

[Bertz]

The problem with finally having a decent number of fun pitching prospects again is you really feel the absence on days like today where none of them are going.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Beast

[Bertz]

Ethan Hearn has been hot lately.  Him turning into a guy immediately after Tom's ban would be the funniest possible outcome.

[Tryptamine]

37 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ethan Hearn has been hot lately.  Him turning into a guy immediately after Tom's ban would be the funniest possible outcome.

I've had him on ignore so long I didn't even know this happened.

[Donzo]

54 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ethan Hearn has been hot lately. 

 

It was kinda the whole month of May he was OK and he had a good game to start June. He was awful in April.

 

[Bruno7481]

Where does Long rank on the most likely to be dealt list come trade deadline?

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Bruno7481 said:

Where does Long rank on the most likely to be dealt list come trade deadline?

Honestly as a RHH corner guy he's a pretty clean roster fit and IMO one of the most likely prospects to stick around.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

Honestly as a RHH corner guy he's a pretty clean roster fit and IMO one of the most likely prospects to stick around.

Yeah we're at the point where I think Long, Wiggins and Ballesteros are the 3 most likely staying on this roster. I could easily see Alcantara and Caissie as trade bait and sadly this is more or less a lost year so far for Triantos. I'm undecided on how I feel about Rojas.

[NorthsideAvenger]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

I've had him on ignore so long I didn't even know this happened.

Same here. 

[Bruno7481]

Not necessarily advocating for it but I think he is going to be a popular ask based on his performance.  Of course it all depends on who the Cubs are targeting, but I would be interested to see how teams evaluate Alcantara/Caissie/Long.

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

The problem with finally having a decent number of fun pitching prospects again is you really feel the absence on days like today where none of them are going.

Whoever the hell Kenton Egbert is is about to turn a corner. I can feel it. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I've had him on ignore so long I didn't even know this happened.

imb had a really impressive spring.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I feel like Jed is gonna call Mo, Shaw, and Horton off limits and the rest fair game, as hard as he wants to go. If he tries to nab the top pitcher on the market then Wiggins, Long, Rojas will probably be hot names. 

 

I'm not sure Alcantara/Caissie has what it takes to anchor a deal and keep those guys out of it.

[Jason Ross]

4 hours ago, Bruno7481 said:

Where does Long rank on the most likely to be dealt list come trade deadline?

I would disagree with Bertz here - I think I'd vault him to near the top of my list as "likely". There's some utility he could have on the bench for Turner, or in the case of a Busch injury, but I also think he's "found money" here, and if the Cubs really like Caissie/Alcantara/Ballesteros Long could be a really strong trade chip here and it might mean they can keep someone they've liked more/longer. 

The Cubs seem like they're "in" this year. I expect an active deadline and active mean many of our top players are more likely to go than many think they are.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I feel like Jed is gonna call Mo, Shaw, and Horton off limits and the rest fair game, as hard as he wants to go. If he tries to nab the top pitcher on the market then Wiggins, Long, Rojas will probably be hot names. 

 

I'm not sure Alcantara/Caissie has what it takes to anchor a deal and keep those guys out of it.

I think Caissie and Alcantara both offer far more trade value than you're giving them credit for. Especially someone like Alcantara. The I-Cub data hasn't been great overall this year, but he's a 6"6 capable CF'er. Long is fun, but there's a reason many had Kevin as a top-50 prospect in baseball headed into the year. He's been much better in May, posting a 112 wRC+ and may be in the process of lowering his strike outs (down to 22% over his last 33 PA's). He's struggled at the start of the year a few times in his career, so this isn't entirely out of character for him. 

Like John Long and all, really like Wiggins' progress, but Kev's got em' in trade value, I'm pretty sure. Really just need one team to think he's a star. Rojas might be more on par, but the other two? Alcantara has 'em beat.

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I feel like Jed is gonna call Mo, Shaw, and Horton off limits and the rest fair game, as hard as he wants to go. If he tries to nab the top pitcher on the market then Wiggins, Long, Rojas will probably be hot names. 

 

I'm not sure Alcantara/Caissie has what it takes to anchor a deal and keep those guys out of it.

I love Mo, but if I'm the Cubs, he's my headliner. They all have questions, but he's got the best tool. I don't think he's going to hit for much power; he doesn't have a position if he can't catch, and I worry about the weight as he gets older. Long is a good second or third prospect, or flip-flop Wiggins. 

I'd hope they are only giving up a package like that for a TOR pitcher. 

[Bertz]

I've mentioned this before but I tend to think of the quartet of big bats at Iowa that two will stick around and get folded into the big league team.  I also think, all else being equal, they'll keep one righty and one lefty, and one IFer and one OFer.  So Long+Caissie or Alcantara+Ballesteros.

Their further performance will obviously impact the decision, and I think the Kyle Tucker situation will impact things (i.e. if he sticks around you can feel a little more comfortable trading both of Alcantara/Caissie), but that's my default assumption at the moment.

I also don't think there's a lot of daylight between Mo and Caissie/Alcantara.  And if you assured me he wouldn't be able to catch he'd still be behind both of them.

[craig]

I have no idea what might happen. 

1. In part because I don't really know how the Cubs scout their own guys. 
2. In part because I don't know how other teams scout our guys.
3. In part because I don't know what good pitchers will be available, or at what price.
4. In part because I don't know what Hoyer will be looking for.  Who knows what health situations will change over the next two months, or performance issues?  

Me dreaming best-case:

1. None of the current starting position players gets hurt.  
2. Amaya is back, and catcher is doing fine.
3. Shaw looks like he can hit. Hoyer isn't prioritizing a starting 3B.
4. Brown settles in and looks like a good, asset pitcher.   Horton settles in, and looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Imanaga comes back from injury and is good again, looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Boyd keeps rolling, and looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Taillon keeps rolling, and also looks like a good, asset pitcher.
5. Assad recovers fully over the next few weeks.  As July progresses, he looks as good or better than he's ever been, and is available as a quality rotation-depth guy.  Rea bounces back from his couple of off outings, and looks like the decent, competent professional pitcher he was for his first 7 starts.  Reasonable rotation-depth guy.  With Assad and Rea as depth guys, we're 7 starters deep, so Hoyer doesn't really need to be looking for back-of-rotation depth starters.  (Heh heh, I'm being idealistic dreamy, but I'm not going to go so over-the-top as to dream of Wicks actually emerging as healthy and anti-awful....)
6. Palencia keeps throwing strikes, and settles in as the closer, and as a flat-out good closer.  Hodge gets healthy, and comes back as a good, really good setup.  Keller stays great.  

In this dreamland, Hoyer isn't really facing many pressing needs.  

1. Upgrading on the bench fringes, yes.  Brujan, Berti, Turner, those are spots to improve.  But, don't think he's trading wiggins for a 2-month Brujan-upgrade, or Moises for a rental-upgrade on Turner.  
2. Upgrading on the bullpen fringes, yes.  Pressly, Brasier, Marquez, sure he might be looking to upgrade there.  But again, you don't trade Moises or Wiggins for a Brazier upgrade.  
3. So in the dreamland, *IF* you trade one of your TOP prospects, it might only be if you're getting a BIG-value guy.  Maybe a starting pitcher that will be starting in playoff games, not just a depth back-rotation guy.   Maybe a relief pitcher who's really good, and could make your leverage-relievers really deep and great.  Maybe a guy who isn't a rental, but could be a top-3 rotation guy for another year or more?  Or could be core leverage-reliever for next year and beyond?   

But I think Hoyer is still pretty long-view minded.  Yes, for sure he's in for this year.  I think there's a chance that he won't have many crisis needs, and may keep most of the prospects that are most significant.  

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

I have no idea what might happen. 

1. In part because I don't really know how the Cubs scout their own guys. 
2. In part because I don't know how other teams scout our guys.
3. In part because I don't know what good pitchers will be available, or at what price.
4. In part because I don't know what Hoyer will be looking for.  Who knows what health situations will change over the next two months, or performance issues?  

Me dreaming best-case:

1. None of the current starting position players gets hurt.  
2. Amaya is back, and catcher is doing fine.
3. Shaw looks like he can hit. Hoyer isn't prioritizing a starting 3B.
4. Brown settles in and looks like a good, asset pitcher.   Horton settles in, and looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Imanaga comes back from injury and is good again, looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Boyd keeps rolling, and looks like a good, asset pitcher.  Taillon keeps rolling, and also looks like a good, asset pitcher.
5. Assad recovers fully over the next few weeks.  As July progresses, he looks as good or better than he's ever been, and is available as a quality rotation-depth guy.  Rea bounces back from his couple of off outings, and looks like the decent, competent professional pitcher he was for his first 7 starts.  Reasonable rotation-depth guy.  With Assad and Rea as depth guys, we're 7 starters deep, so Hoyer doesn't really need to be looking for back-of-rotation depth starters.  (Heh heh, I'm being idealistic dreamy, but I'm not going to go so over-the-top as to dream of Wicks actually emerging as healthy and anti-awful....)
6. Palencia keeps throwing strikes, and settles in as the closer, and as a flat-out good closer.  Hodge gets healthy, and comes back as a good, really good setup.  Keller stays great.  

In this dreamland, Hoyer isn't really facing many pressing needs.  

1. Upgrading on the bench fringes, yes.  Brujan, Berti, Turner, those are spots to improve.  But, don't think he's trading wiggins for a 2-month Brujan-upgrade, or Moises for a rental-upgrade on Turner.  
2. Upgrading on the bullpen fringes, yes.  Pressly, Brasier, Marquez, sure he might be looking to upgrade there.  But again, you don't trade Moises or Wiggins for a Brazier upgrade.  
3. So in the dreamland, *IF* you trade one of your TOP prospects, it might only be if you're getting a BIG-value guy.  Maybe a starting pitcher that will be starting in playoff games, not just a depth back-rotation guy.   Maybe a relief pitcher who's really good, and could make your leverage-relievers really deep and great.  Maybe a guy who isn't a rental, but could be a top-3 rotation guy for another year or more?  Or could be core leverage-reliever for next year and beyond?   

But I think Hoyer is still pretty long-view minded.  Yes, for sure he's in for this year.  I think there's a chance that he won't have many crisis needs, and may keep most of the prospects that are most significant.  

Regardless, even the best case scenario leaves the Chicago Cubs in a position in the rotation where two of their current five arms will need their innings ramped down at some stage. Neither Horton nor Brown are likely to be able to go 5+ every fifth time between today and October in a way that manages their workload from where it was last year to this year without breaks, rest, etc. Likely one, or both, will be members of the BP for a decent chunk of time.

What that means is even with Imanaga's return, the Cubs will be at least one SP short for a playoff rotation (as Assad is likely not good enough for it) and upgrading over Colin Rea/Javier Assad is possible. Conversely, the Cubs are getting to a point where they kind of have too many prospects. They're going to have to trade for at least one SP and they can' hoard every prospect, even those desirable, forever. They'll really have to move someone and likely a few someones. A long term outlook can remain, you don't have to trade all seven or eight significant prospects, but they probably need to pick a handful, and be willing to move others. Even really good ones.

[craig]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Regardless, even the best case scenario leaves the Chicago Cubs in a position in the rotation where two of their current five arms will need their innings ramped down at some stage. Neither Horton nor Brown are likely to be able to go 5+ every fifth time between today and October in a way that manages their workload from where it was last year to this year without breaks, rest, etc. Likely one, or both, will be members of the BP for a decent chunk of time.

Agree.  Protecting their workload is a thing.  Maybe Rea, Assad, Flexen, can pick up some starts?  So maybe you do want to pick up an 8th/9th starter rental to cover some additional starts, so that Horton and Brown can skip a variable number of starts each.  Not sure I'd trade Wiggins, Moises, or Long to get a 2-month cover-a-couple-starts 8th-starter rental, though.....    

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

What that means is even with Imanaga's return, the Cubs will be at least one SP short for a playoff rotation (as Assad is likely not good enough for it) and upgrading over Colin Rea/Javier Assad is possible. ...

 

Not sure I'm tracking?  Playoff rotations are only 4-deep, and 4th starter only needs to make three starts even if you win the world series while taking every series to max. So Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Horton, and Brown gives you 5 guys from which to choose 3, really; and than a 4th to maybe make up to 3 starts max.  

So, I assume Counsell makes sure that Horton and Brown skip enough starts during the season so that they're available for the playoffs?  Use Rea, Assad, Flexen to cover those skipped starts; maybe a cheap trade-deadline rental?   

Are you instead reasoning that the Cubs will just burn Horton and Brown's usage during the season, and they will be unavailable for playoffs?  

Or are you just meaning that Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Horton, and Brown aren't good enough to be playoff starters?   

Certainly the prospect of trading for a high-end starter, who would be good enough to unambigiously fit into the 3-man playoff rotation (and who could also be back for 2026), that would be very appealing, and worth some prospect sacrifice. 

I'm just not thinking I want to trade Moises, Wiggins, or even Long for a pick-up-some-Brown/HOrton-starts-in-August rental who you won't actually start in the playoffs.  

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Conversely, the Cubs are getting to a point where they kind of have too many prospects. They're going to have to trade for at least one SP and they can' hoard every prospect, even those desirable, forever. They'll really have to move someone and likely a few someones. A long term outlook can remain, you don't have to trade all seven or eight significant prospects, but they probably need to pick a handful, and be willing to move others. Even really good ones.

Not sure I track this.  In what landscape do the Cubs have too many prospects, and why do they have to move any of them?  Like, who presently might have to get moved?  There is no shortage of Iowa BA's for Alcantara, Caissie, Triantos, Long, and Moises.  It's not like Alcantara, Caissie, Triantos, or Moises belong in the majors right now, but are blocked by Cub starters.  Alcantara with his .241 BA, 62K/170AB, and .424 slug, it's not like he's earned a starting opportunity with the Cubs but is just blocked by PCA and Tucker.  Same with Caissie, .243BA, 65K/169AB, it's not like he's earned a starting opportunity but he's just blocked by Happ and Tucker.  This isn't like Freeman-blocking-Busch or anything.  They just haven't improved enough yet to earn a big-league starting opportunity yet.  

If the thinking is they're never going to get much better, so they'll never get good enough to become big-league starters, so trade them before their value declines, that's a different argument.  

In a sense, I think that we're nowhere near any point of having too many prospects.  Either they progress and earn their way to the majors, or they stall and decline their prospect-rank status.  

 

 

 

[craig]

Just to belabor, I'm not arguing against trading guys.  It depends on the value.  Just wondering whether we NEED to trade guys.  If so who needs to get traded?  Why?  And if we're going to trade, what are the big-league needs that we need to trade for? 

If you can get a starting pitcher who's going to be in playoff 3-man rotation for Alcantara, or Caissie, by all means!  I like that value.  If you can get nice circle-of-trust caliber reliever for Christian Franklin, I'm listening.  If you get a quality reliever for Cristian Hernandez, or a cover-a-couple-starts-to-rest-Horton/Brown starter, I'm listening.  

It's just a question of value traded and value received.  

Edited June 2, 2025 by craig

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, craig said:

Not sure I'm tracking?  Playoff rotations are only 4-deep, and 4th starter only needs to make three starts even if you win the world series while taking every series to max. So Imanaga, Boyd, Taillon, Horton, and Brown gives you 5 guys from which to choose 3, really; and than a 4th to maybe make up to 3 starts max. 

The Cubs playoff rotation is four deep, but as of today neither Horton nor Brown should be in it. Brown flashes, but has control/command issues and has a tendency to give up hard contact, and a lot of it. Horton also has some small command/control things. Both are also on borrowed time with innings. The Cubs should also not want to see either Rea or Assad start. The Cubs need an actual, good, SP. This is almost undebatable at this stage. The Cubs SP is at least one arm short, and possibly more moving forward because it's likely someone else picks up a knock or two. This is a rotation screaming for an update, and a team who has prospects to burn to make it happen. They should not, for any reason, be content.

I say this as someone who really likes Horton and thinks Brown has some strong flashes. I wouldn't trust either of them against a playoff team as the starter right now.

Quote

Not sure I track this.  In what landscape do the Cubs have too many prospects, and why do they have to move any of them?  Like, who presently might have to get moved?  There is no shortage of Iowa BA's for Alcantara, Caissie, Triantos, Long, and Moises.  It's not like Alcantara, Caissie, Triantos, or Moises belong in the majors right now, but are blocked by Cub starters.  Alcantara with his .241 BA, 62K/170AB, and .424 slug, it's not like he's earned a starting opportunity with the Cubs but is just blocked by PCA and Tucker.  Same with Caissie, .243BA, 65K/169AB, it's not like he's earned a starting opportunity but he's just blocked by Happ and Tucker.  This isn't like Freeman-blocking-Busch or anything.  They just haven't improved enough yet to earn a big-league starting opportunity yet.  

If the thinking is they're never going to get much better, so they'll never get good enough to become big-league starters, so trade them before their value declines, that's a different argument.  

In a sense, I think that we're nowhere near any point of having too many prospects.  Either they progress and earn their way to the majors, or they stall and decline their prospect-rank status.

Prospects such as Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, Kevin Alcantara, and the like are depreciating values. First, all are currently on the 40-man, and realistically, all are blocked as of today. Option years are a thing, too. Kevin Alcantara is down to one option year remaining (next year). Players eventually have to be on the MLB roster or be lost. And the reality is that while it's cool to have someone like Alcantara as a backup, if the Cubs are going to play PCA almost every day and he's this good, you can find someone else to sit on the bench behind Pete while Kevin is used to shore up another need. 

Many of these prospects, as well, are going to fail in some degree. They all aren't hitting their ceiling. So using them in a trade is away to mitigate his. They should probably be ready to pick their favorites in some fashion.

The Cubs are getting to a point where they have too much. If they plan on extending Tucker, Caissie will be in a similar boat, likely. If the Cubs like Ballesteros more than Long, he could be in a similar boat. James Triantos could be in a similar boat, though I've got his ceiling more as a utility/supersub than a starting talent as is Franklin, so neither *have* to go. 

Hoarding prospects loses their value. The goal is to win baseball games at the MLB level, not have the best prospect list. They should not trade 'em all. But they probably need to pick some similar-ish prospects and make some moves. I'm not advocating throwing them away, but at some point, and we're probably there, the Cubs should be willing to move prospects to better themselves in a more tangible way. Prospects are assets, and assets can be used in many ways. A smart team with a strong system uses some to supplement their roster by calling them up, and uses others to acquire known talent.

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, craig said:

I have no idea what might happen. 

In this dreamland, Hoyer isn't really facing many pressing needs.  

 

1. Upgrading on the bullpen fringes, yes.  Pressly, Brasier, Marquez, sure he might be looking to upgrade there.  But again, you don't trade Moises or Wiggins for a Brazier upgrade.

Who is Marquez?