Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[We Got The Whole 9]

I predicted Flaherty would get 3/60 and I'm sticking to it. There is just not a big enough track record to give him 25 AAV IMO. But the upside is worth it and I hope Jed is in to the end.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I predicted Flaherty would get 3/60 and I'm sticking to it. There is just not a big enough track record to give him 25 AAV IMO. But the upside is worth it and I hope Jed is in to the end.

You and Jed can stick to that number. And then he won’t be a Cub. He will cost much more than that. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You and Jed can stick to that number. And then he won’t be a Cub. He will cost much more than that. 

 

Flaherty is projected to land a three-year, $63 million deal this offseason by Spotrac. It's unclear where he will go, but MLB.com's Mark Feinsand said the Cubs are "in the mix" for him.

 

Teams arent going to offer this dude a 9 figure contract given hes thrown about 150 good innnings in the last 5 years.

[Jason Ross]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You and Jed can stick to that number. And then he won’t be a Cub. He will cost much more than that. 

His market is quickly disappearing. Most teams who were after the biggest SPs have signed them already. The Yankees got Fried, LAD did the Snell thing, Baltimore is obsessed with acquiring #4 SPs...

There's a decent chance he's going to come in decently under what people thought he'd get.

[Bertz]

Essentially every free agent SP has exceeded projections this winter, and there are still several teams out there looking to spend some money (Tigers, Giants, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays).

I won't say no chance to Flaherty's market collapsing because there were some rumors about a shoulder injury around the deadline, but you should still expect something in the vicinity of $100M for him.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Essentially every free agent SP has exceeded projections this winter, and there are still several teams out there looking to spend some money (Tigers, Giants, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays).

I won't say no chance to Flaherty's market collapsing because there were some rumors about a shoulder injury around the deadline, but you should still expect something in the vicinity of $100M for him.

Agreed. I will take the over on a $20M average salary. Even if he tanks his one year prove it deal will be similar to Montgomery. And I still think there are several teams that will go at least 4 years for him at over $22M a year. 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Essentially every free agent SP has exceeded projections this winter, and there are still several teams out there looking to spend some money (Tigers, Giants, Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays).

I won't say no chance to Flaherty's market collapsing because there were some rumors about a shoulder injury around the deadline, but you should still expect something in the vicinity of $100M for him.

After Roki drops, the market for Jack may get hot, and there may be an over projections contract for him.  It really could go either way.  He could land a 4/90 ish deal, or he could have to settle for a 2 year deal in the 40's.

[Tryptamine]

Not that I wanted Charlie Morton, or Sugano for that matter, but I find it humorous watching the Orioles out spend the Cubs this offseason.  

[Bull]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

After Roki drops, the market for Jack may get hot, and there may be an over projections contract for him.  It really could go either way.  He could land a 4/90 ish deal, or he could have to settle for a 2 year deal in the 40's.

Jon Heyman, is that you?

[Bertz]

Means we will not see Ohtani as a SP this season unless it's in the playoffs

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What's the over/under on career IP as a Dodger, 200 might even be high?

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

What's the over/under on career IP as a Dodger, 200 might even be high?

I will take the over on Ohtani innings for his career.

[LBiittner]

I started hallucinating while drinking during the bears/pack game today. 

I imagined jed had signed Alex Bregman to a 2 year 60million with opt out. Jack Flaherity to a 2 year 44mil and Finnegan to a 2 year 15mil.

This woud be my RULES of TWOS. And the more I drank, the more it seemed feasible 

Granted, if they looked playoff bound, financially, Tom would stand to capture $ from the postseason.

If they looked like a bust at deadline time, jed starts parting out the roster to get below the luxury tax.

Cubfans unite and drink with me.

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I started hallucinating while drinking during the bears/pack game today. 

I imagined jed had signed Alex Bregman to a 2 year 60million with opt out. Jack Flaherity to a 2 year 44mil and Finnegan to a 2 year 15mil.

This woud be my RULES of TWOS. And the more I drank, the more it seemed feasible 

Granted, if they looked playoff bound, financially, Tom would stand to capture $ from the postseason.

If they looked like a bust at deadline time, jed starts parting out the roster to get below the luxury tax.

Cubfans unite and drink with me.

Not enough alcohol for me to believe this would ever happen. 

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

I started hallucinating while drinking during the bears/pack game today. 

I imagined jed had signed Alex Bregman to a 2 year 60million with opt out. Jack Flaherity to a 2 year 44mil and Finnegan to a 2 year 15mil.

This woud be my RULES of TWOS. And the more I drank, the more it seemed feasible 

Granted, if they looked playoff bound, financially, Tom would stand to capture $ from the postseason.

If they looked like a bust at deadline time, jed starts parting out the roster to get below the luxury tax.

Cubfans unite and drink with me.

I'll have what he's having. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Not enough alcohol for me to believe this would ever happen. 

Not with that attitude!

[thawv]

On 1/4/2025 at 4:12 PM, Bull said:

Jon Heyman, is that you?

It is not!!  I'm not sure why you ask that either. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

It is not!!  I'm not sure why you ask that either. 

Because you said nothing in a lot of words. 

[thawv]

Just now, CubinNY said:

Because you said nothing in a lot of words. 

Well, it was clearly something.  And that's a lot of words?  Hahahaha

[Bertz]

Arbitration deadline is apparently this Thursday.  Probably safe to assume if anything happens the next few days it'll be pretty small, like a Moncada.

[Dfan25]

If the Cubs arent signing Sasaki , i prefer that he lets them know this week . Feels like its going to be completely quiet until he makes a decisión .

Would really suck to wait until the 20-21st with nothing happening , only to see him signing with LA or SD .

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If the Cubs arent signing Sasaki , i prefer that he lets them know this week . Feels like its going to be completely quiet until he makes a decisión .

Would really suck to wait until the 20-21st with nothing happening , only to see him signing with LA or SD .

I'm having a tough time reconciling the fact that there's a very finite amount of money each team can offer him, and thus no reason to do protracted negotiations, with the fact that he already knows it is going to take another two weeks to decide.

My guess is any team that gets to the stage of an in person meeting will not know they're out of it until he's made his final decision.

[Bull]

7 hours ago, thawv said:

It is not!!  I'm not sure why you ask that either. 

Because you said "it might be this, but it might be this completely different thing".

Heyman has a reputation for hedging bets. You built a Great Wall around your bet.

[thawv]

43 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm having a tough time reconciling the fact that there's a very finite amount of money each team can offer him, and thus no reason to do protracted negotiations, with the fact that he already knows it is going to take another two weeks to decide.

My guess is any team that gets to the stage of an in person meeting will not know they're out of it until he's made his final decision.

I read that he's going to visit the cities of the "finalists."  There's also speculation that he's going to wait until the last 3 days of his window.  Presumably to give teams a chance to trade for some more IFA money.  But I can't imagine that a couple of million is going to be his deciding factor.  

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

 

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Edited January 6, 2025 by chibears55