Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, SOFNR said:

If were going to drop that much on the last pitcher its going to limit what they can spend on the bullpen. 

 

12 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

What does it matter how much they are paying him? if he’s posting a 2 ERA or whatever else elite metric you want the Cubs will be winning. If he sucks they will be losing. There isn’t a lot of good pitching on the market or available.

im not saying I want the cubs to trade for him, but the money doesn’t matter 

The post you responded to says exactly why it matters. Regardless of the fact that paying $24M for a prove it year on someone probably isn’t a good idea and there is probably better use of that money, for a better pitcher, it takes money away from the rest of the moves the Cubs may want to make. Maybe you don’t like that reasoning. Frankly I think it sucks too, but ownership appears to have a line they will go to. So, simple math is if they spend $17M on him as opposed to $24M on him they have $$M more they can spend. I don’t like it either. I think it is ridiculous that the major market cubs have to operate this way. But they do. Money matters. That is why they didn’t want to give up more for Bellinger.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Twins are looking to cut payroll , but probably want to stay competitive . Would think the Cubs would need to include someone like Wicks maybe as part of the deal ? 
 

Obviously they would need to give more than that . Pablo i think has 3 years at 18 on AAV left on his deal .

He actually counts as $21M a year for LT purposes. But, yes the Cubs would have to start the deal with either someone like Wicks or Assad and add to it. 

[Dfan25]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He actually counts as $21M a year for LT purposes. But, yes the Cubs would have to start the deal with either someone like Wicks or Assad and add to it. 

Fangraphs has him at 18.38 on AAV ?

cots has him at 21 

Edited December 28, 2024 by Dfan25

[Bertz]

If you wanted to really move the needle on this Cubs team trading for Pablo Lopez, one of Jax/Duran, and Willi Castro would make them *scary*.  You'd have to gut the farm and I'd be nervous about retaining Tucker, but 2025 would be really sweet.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Dfan25 said:

Fangraphs has him at 18.38 on AAV ?

When a guy gets traded the AAV for his new team resets to the AAV of what's left on his deal at the time of his trade.  This was added during the last CBA to prevent teams taking advantage with heavily backloaded deals.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If you wanted to really move the needle on this Cubs team trading for Pablo Lopez, one of Jax/Duran, and Willi Castro would make them *scary*.  You'd have to gut the farm and I'd be nervous about retaining Tucker, but 2025 would be really sweet.

That was something I had suggested a little while back. Lopez/Jax/Castro. Kind of a one stop shopping sort of thing. All that would be left would be a lefty in the pen(Minter). That would hurt a bit to make that happen. But we would have a solid starter and a great pen arm(cheap). And Castro would be a good bench add. 

[SOFNR]

2 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Fangraphs has him at 18.38 on AAV ?

cots has him at 21 

For the twins the aav was 18, because he only made 8.25 last year. The next 3 years he's owed 21.75.

[SOFNR]

Lopez is my favorite of the options we've heard about. He's under market value and one of the few arms that would be a big upgrade. The prospect cost might be rough.

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Stratos said:

Teoscar's contract apparently has 23m in deferred money so that's nice.  But still counts towards the current luxury tax right?

His CBT number is about 3 million more than his cash salary.  These deferments help cash payroll, and hurt their CBT number.  

[LBiittner]

Is this ogasawara posted on December 10 a viable option or a nothing burger without the works? BTW he's a lefty

 

[Bertz]

Pretty sure the next time this guy is right about something will be the first but hey whatever it's slow at the moment

 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Pretty sure the next time this guy is right about something will be the first but hey whatever it's slow at the moment

 

With the Marlins possibly taking some heat if they are under the payroll figure they are supposed to be over, I doubt this amounts to much. However, if BOTH Cassie and Triantos were involved I would think something else has to come back. Maybe a pen arm? Cubs include Assad. As you said, probably nothing too it. 

[Michael Busch Light]

Hot stove Cubbies is still around?  That guy is hilarious. 

[LBiittner]

Goody goody, let's trade our A+ prospects for a guy who hasn't pitched since labor day 2023. Cue Tom ... 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Who the horsefeathers cares about how much money he is making? What difference does 5 million dollars make to the Cubs roster plans? How much he’s paid has little to do with his performance. The name of the game is winning. 

Jeds job is to squeeze as much potential WAR out of the budget Ricketts gives him in order to maximize the # of team wins, so Jed has to care.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Jeds job is to squeeze as much potential WAR out of the budget Ricketts gives him in order to maximize the # of team wins, so Jed has to care.

Ok, 5-10 M isn’t going make or break the Cubs. And more to the point, winning is what matters. So saying some horsefeathers about Montgomery at 15 million vs Montgomery at  20 million is nonsense. If Jed thinks his performance is better than Assad or Wicks or JaMo then he should see what the cost is in terms of players. The money is irrelevant b/c it doesn’t matter. 

[CubinNY]

This is what a winner looks like.

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH
2. Mookie Betts, SS
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Teoscar Hernández, RF
5. Max Muncy, 3B
6. Will Smith, C
7. Michael Conforto, LF
8. Tommy Edman, CF
9. Gavin Lux, 2B

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Ok, 5-10 M isn’t going make or break the Cubs. And more to the point, winning is what matters. So saying some horsefeathers about Montgomery at 15 million vs Montgomery at  20 million is nonsense. If Jed thinks his performance is better than Assad or Wicks or JaMo then he should see what the cost is in terms of players. The money is irrelevant b/c it doesn’t matter. 

Well what matters is if Jed thinks he can get more wins spending that 24m on Montgomery vs another player or combo of players.  I agree 5m isn't a lot though.  But he has to make choices, like 21m for a Buehler vs 24m for Montgomery etc.

Say the Dbacks threw in a few million, i'd prefer Montgomery for 21m a lot more than Buehler.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

This is what a winner looks like.

1. Shohei Ohtani, DH
2. Mookie Betts, SS
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Teoscar Hernández, RF
5. Max Muncy, 3B
6. Will Smith, C
7. Michael Conforto, LF
8. Tommy Edman, CF
9. Gavin Lux, 2B

It could also be this soon:

1. Snell

2. Yamamoto

3. Ohtani

4. Glasnow

5. Sasaki

 

[chibears55]

Amaya, Busch, ?(Hoerner IL), Swanson, Shaw, Happ, PCA, Tucker

Suzuki,  Kelly, Workman, ?, ?

Imanaga, Steele, Taillon,  Boyd, Assad

Hodge, Miller, Pearson,  Morgan, Merryweather,  Zastryzny, ?, ?

 

Bullpen, Bench, and a Sasaki hope or a mid/backend starter

[chibears55]

19 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Amaya, Busch, ?(Hoerner IL), Swanson, Shaw, Happ, PCA, Tucker

Suzuki,  Kelly, Workman, ?, ?

Imanaga, Steele, Taillon,  Boyd, Assad

Hodge, Miller, Pearson,  Morgan, Merryweather,  Zastryzny, ?, ?

 

Bullpen, Bench, and a Sasaki hope or a mid/backend starter

Cubs traded Mervis to the Marlins for their 2Bmen to start season while Hoerner recovers on IL.

 

[Bertz]

Apparently Hyeseong Kim's posting windows runs out on Friday, so we should hear where he's going in the next day or two.  He feels like a plausible option here in a post-Paredes world.

[Bertz]

It's very interesting to me that the Luzardo stuff was so hot and heavy, then it fell apart, then Jed immediately pushed Cashman to make the Bellinger deal, and now it's just crickets.

In hindsight I'm assuming Toronto was about to pull their offer for Bellinger.  And now the Cubs are largely just hanging out until the Sasaki decision?

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

It's very interesting to me that the Luzardo stuff was so hot and heavy, then it fell apart, then Jed immediately pushed Cashman to make the Bellinger deal, and now it's just crickets.

In hindsight I'm assuming Toronto was about to pull their offer for Bellinger.  And now the Cubs are largely just hanging out until the Sasaki decision?

Yep, i think for the most part their position players are set, maybe they add another depth piece or two.

Meanwhile,  they wait on Sasaki decision, and probably look to add more pitching depth for the bullpen. 

 

[Illiterate Scholar]

Sasaki's tremendous injury risk combined with the low monetary cost seems like it shouldn't affect the plans really at all. I guess maybe it'd make Jed less willing to give up the necessary prospects for someone like Lopez if he lands Sasaki? I don't know if I actually believe that though.