Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[Post Count Padder]

Maybe this has been brought up, but I feel like Law is a contrarian, and he enjoys being a bit of an outlier. Seems like he touts favorites a lot and has negative opinions of prospects who are generally well regarded.

Then again, I don't know if his track record is any better than the norm.

Edited February 1, 2025 by Post Count Padder

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Maybe this has been brought up, but I feel like Law is a contrarian, and he enjoys being a bit of an outlier. Seems like he touts favorites a lot and has negative opinions of prospects who are generally well regarded.

Then again, I don't know if his track record is any better than the norm.

Law likes to be a bit of an antagonist.

[Bertz]

Kiley McDaniel releases his full Top 10

1. MattShaw

2. Moises Ballesteros

3. Kevin Alcantara

4. Owen Caissie

5. Cade Horton

6. Jefferson Rojas

7. James Triantos

8. Brandin Birdsell

9. Yahil Melendez

10. Jaxon Wiggins

[JunkyardWalrus]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I do like seeing Melendez in that top 10, but also see the ranking as standing in for Rk level non-1B IF prospect. He’s fine, get kinda Chris Taylor vibes fw that could be worth at this stage, but this is a deep pool of properties to invest in (trying to use 2.0 talk). No order just writing names:

Yahil Melendez, Fernando Cruz, Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, Adan Sanchez*,  Ronny Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Juan Tomas, Juan Cabada, Wilfry De La Cruz, Cesar Lugo, Edgardo De Leon, Eli Lovich, Ty Southisene

*catcher

Theo willing there’s at least One Man among this group that includes 16-17 YOs who will stand up to evil and stabilize the payroll for a half decade+. One Man brave enough, strong enough to produce so much Surplus Valuez that payroll will thrive for many years even if they do Overpayz (say anything abv min) 

It would be nice to develop some non-1st round talent. Especially with all the propaganda we were fed by Ricketts about their substantial investments in LA some years ago. There seemingly hasn't been much fruit plucked from that vine over the past decade. What, Parades, Morel, Amaya on the position side and... Assad and Alzolay? That pretty much it?

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

It would be nice to develop some non-1st round talent. Especially with all the propaganda we were fed by Ricketts about their substantial investments in LA some years ago. There seemingly hasn't been much fruit plucked from that vine over the past decade. What, Parades, Morel, Amaya on the position side and... Assad and Alzolay? That pretty much it?

My push back on this would be this; developing prospects takes time, and while the Cubs certainly didn't do this as often as we'd have liked during the previous developmental team captained by Jason McLeod, the Cubs have really only had three years (2021-2024) to develop later round talents. 

If there's a positive, it's that early signs suggest the Cubs are doing better in this regard. James Triantos and Owen Caissie are both second round picks. The Cubs drafted (and should be given credit to a degree) both Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope (2nd and 11th round picks respectively). They've also have players like Brandon Birdsell (5th round), Luke Little (5th round), Porter Hodge (13th round - under previous regime) who should play roles with the team. And it's this crew that was able to rework previous later round pick Justin Steele into something useful. 

I think we're seeing that the Cubs are doing much better in this regards currently. 

[JBears79]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

My push back on this would be this; developing prospects takes time, and while the Cubs certainly didn't do this as often as we'd have liked during the previous developmental team captained by Jason McLeod, the Cubs have really only had three years (2021-2024) to develop later round talents. 

If there's a positive, it's that early signs suggest the Cubs are doing better in this regard. James Triantos and Owen Caissie are both second round picks. The Cubs drafted (and should be given credit to a degree) both Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope (2nd and 11th round picks respectively). They've also have players like Brandon Birdsell (5th round), Luke Little (5th round), Porter Hodge (13th round - under previous regime) who should play roles with the team. And it's this crew that was able to rework previous later round pick Justin Steele into something useful. 

I think we're seeing that the Cubs are doing much better in this regards currently. 

I got high hopes for Eli Lovich this year and I would love to see Wiggins take a strong step forward and solidify himself as a top tier prospect. 

[craig]

7 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

My push back on this would be this; developing prospects takes time, ...I think we're seeing that the Cubs are doing much better in this regards currently. 

Totally agree for draft.  

Not seeing manifestation yet for international infielders.  That's where I'm wanting to see things get way better.  Sure hoping it's the "takes time", and that's about to kick in.  I'm with Tom, want to get some hits from within the Yahil Melendez, Fernando Cruz, Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, Adan Sanchez*,  Ronny Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Juan Tomas, Juan Cabada, Wilfry De La Cruz, Cesar Lugo, Edgardo De Leon, Eli Lovich, Ty Southisene crop.  (I know some of those were drafted, but I'm just copying Tom's good list of teenage position guys.  We need to get some hits out of that bunch, particularly the international guys.). 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

14 hours ago, craig said:

Totally agree for draft.  

Not seeing manifestation yet for international infielders.  That's where I'm wanting to see things get way better.  Sure hoping it's the "takes time", and that's about to kick in.  I'm with Tom, want to get some hits from within the Yahil Melendez, Fernando Cruz, Derniche Valdez, Angel Cepeda, Adan Sanchez*,  Ronny Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Juan Tomas, Juan Cabada, Wilfry De La Cruz, Cesar Lugo, Edgardo De Leon, Eli Lovich, Ty Southisene crop.  (I know some of those were drafted, but I'm just copying Tom's good list of teenage position guys.  We need to get some hits out of that bunch, particularly the international guys.). 

It does feel like the Cubs are disappointing in the international market because most of their biggest bonus signings have flamed out or stalled... But at the same time, they have two IFAs who are universally considered top 100 prospects (Ballesteros and Rojas) and that seems pretty good.

I haven't seen a comprehensive analysis of how teams have done in the IFA market and without it, we're stuck doing a piecemeal analysis, often looking at just the biggest successes and not considering that committing to sign 16-year olds at age 13 might be a crapshoot. It's easy to think of Ronald Acuña only signing for $100k or Jackson Chourio's success before he's 21 but are those just outliers with good luck or a sign of really good IFA programs?

[CubinNY]

Law has his top 20 Cubs list out in the Athletic

Any idea what he's talking about with this quote:

Quote

They’ve gutted their pro scouting department, and it’s started to show a little bit in trades, including ones involving their own players.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 1/29/2025 at 10:12 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

BA's full preseason top 30: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2005-chicago-cubs/prospects/?season=2025&ranking=preseason

1. Matt Shaw
2. Cade Horton
3. Moisés Ballesteros
4. Owen Caissie
5. Kevin Alcántara
6. Jefferson Rojas
7. James Triantos
8. Brandon Birdsell
9. Jaxon Wiggins
10. Cole Mathis
11. Jonathon Long
12. Juan Tomas
13. Ángel Cepeda
14. Benjamin Cowles
15. Pedro Ramírez
16. Brody McCullough
17, Wilfri de la Cruz
18. Ronny Cruz
19. Yahil Melendez
20. Cristian Hernández
21. Ty Southisene
22. Gage Workman
23. Pablo Aliendo
24. Juan Cabada
25. Will Sanders
26. Alexander Canario - has lost his prospect status
27. Jack Neely
28. Nick Dean
29. Sam Armstrong
30. Brett Bateman

BA's Cubs' 31-40: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/10-cubs-prospects-to-know-beyond-the-top-30-in-2025/

31. Eli Lovich, OF
32. Drew Gray, LHP
33. Daniel Avitia, RHP
34. JP Wheat, RHP.
35. Frankie Scalzo, RHP
36. Kenyi Pérez, RHP
37. BJ Murray, 3B
38. Fernando Cruz, SS
39. Andy Garriola, OF
40. Ariel Armas, C

[Bertz]

Matt Shaw - 13

Kevin Alcantara - 46

Cade Horton - 79

Jefferson Rojas - 80

Rojas got a grade bump since last month, but otherwise this is about what you'd expect based on his Cubs list.

Cam Smith at #70, Hope and Ferris unranked.

[Bertz]

Last Top 100 (I think?)

 

Matt Shaw - 15

Owen Caissie - 19

Kevin Alcantara - 56

Moises Ballesteros - 58

Jefferson Rojas - 88

Cade Horton - 98

James Triantos - 114 (he's in the top 10 2B list)

No Hope or Ferris.  Not surprising at all on the former.  Cam Smith was like Triantos where he showed up on the 3B list and apparently is 129

[squally1313]

Whatever the internal models are for the Cubs continue to be very much in line with the Zips calculations. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Whatever the internal models are for the Cubs continue to be very much in line with the Zips calculations. 

Yeah I feel like every time the Cubs acquire a hitter their ZiPS projection is the rosiest of those available and nearly every pitcher they acquire their PitchingBot scores are glowing.  

The team said they were going to start leaning on their model more and good or bad they're doing it.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Eriandys Ramón made Eric Longenhagen's Picks to Click section under the "Two-Year Darts" section for guys he thinks might make his top 100 in two years time: Picks to Click: Who I Expect to Make the 2026 Top 100 | FanGraphs Baseball

When he asked his sources in baseball for guys who could make the top 100 list in a year, Cole Mathis made their list.

[allen6510w]

2 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Eriandys Ramón made Eric Longenhagen's Picks to Click section under the "Two-Year Darts" section for guys he thinks might make his top 100 in two years time: Picks to Click: Who I Expect to Make the 2026 Top 100 | FanGraphs Baseball

When he asked his sources in baseball for guys who could make the top 100 list in a year, Cole Mathis made their list.

Yes, if he breaks camp with South Bend he will keep his status as a "dart".  After thriving in the ACL (0.226 ISO), he became more passive at the plate and struggled after being promoted to Myrtle Beach last summer.  Will be interesting to see if he settles in at a position (3B?) or continues to move around the infield. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Quote

Juan Tomas, SS, Cubs
Callis: "Do you know where Juan Tomas ranked on Jesse Borek's International Top 50? Anybody want to guess? Well, it's a trick question, because he wasn't ranked. That's what makes him interesting. So Tomas was kind of a late bloomer physically, and it appeared he was going to sign with the Marlins, and the Marlins overhauled their international scouting department last summer. Right when Tomas was hitting a growth spurt, 6-foot-3 … his handlers decided, well, we're going to put him back in the market, because the guys we struck the deal with don't work for the Marlins anymore. The Cubs found enough money to sign him for $1.1 million, third-highest bonus in their class. But he might have the highest ceiling in the system.”

 

[Stratos]

Deleted

Edited February 28, 2025 by Stratos

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Reportedly Fernando Cruz hurt his shoulder on a headfirst slide in his first game last year and that affected him dramatically all season.

[Bertz]

Finally had time to sit down and read MLB Pipeline's list.  Wow that is some writeup on Juan Tomas.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs 8th:

 

Quote

8. Chicago Cubs
2024 midseason rank: 8
2024 preseason rank: 2
2023 midseason rank: 4
2023 preseason rank: 12

Top 100 prospects: Matt Shaw, INF (No. 19); Cade Horton, RHP (No. 51); Owen Caissie, OF (No. 53); Moises Ballesteros, C/1B (No. 68); James Triantos, 2B/OF (No. 72); Kevin Alcántara, OF (No. 89); Jefferson Rojas, SS/2B (No. 96)

The Cubs are tied with the Mariners with an MLB-best seven Top 100 prospects, the first six of whom all played in Triple-A or the Majors last season. The stockpile of position-player talent is reminiscent of their 2015 farm system that ranked No. 1 in the game and included Kris Bryant, Jeimer Candelario, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Eloy Jiménez, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler and Gleyber Torres. Once their current group graduates, Chicago will rely heavily on a crew of international shortstops led by Rojas, Fernando Cruz, Cristian Hernandez and Juan Tomas.

 

[Post Count Padder]

I was getting 2015 vibes with all those big names but for some reason (maybe memory, maybe feelings about those old squads) I feel like most of the current crop doesn't match up to that one.

Also it's probably been said but it's striking to note the possible dropoff after trades/graduations. Eight of our top 10 are in AAA. We need the young infielders like Rojas and Cruz (x2) and Hernandez to have big years.

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I was getting 2015 vibes with all those big names but for some reason (maybe memory, maybe feelings about those old squads) I feel like most of the current crop doesn't match up to that one.

Also it's probably been said but it's striking to note the possible dropoff after trades/graduations. Eight of our top 10 are in AAA. We need the young infielders like Rojas and Cruz (x2) and Hernandez to have big years.

We just don't have anyone in the same stratosphere as KB.  And to be fair no one currently has a prospect in the same stratosphere as KB.  But I think if you lop KB off the top of the 2014 ERA farm this crew is fairly comparable.

To your point though this farm is in ROUGH shape below Iowa.  There's enough teenage talent at Myrtle that I'm hopeful we have a clear sense of what the next wave looks like by this summer.  But South Bend's roster is a bit weak and Tenn's is pretty much a disaster. 

[Post Count Padder]

47 minutes ago, Bertz said:

We just don't have anyone in the same stratosphere as KB.  And to be fair no one currently has a prospect in the same stratosphere as KB.  But I think if you lop KB off the top of the 2014 ERA farm this crew is fairly comparable.

To your point though this farm is in ROUGH shape below Iowa.  There's enough teenage talent at Myrtle that I'm hopeful we have a clear sense of what the next wave looks like by this summer.  But South Bend's roster is a bit weak and Tenn's is pretty much a disaster. 

The Tenn pitching staff should be interesting but yeah, that lineup, woof.