Pirates (German) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 9/4/24, 6:40pm

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Any team that views Bellinger as a capable CF(and there's little reason not to) is going to see that as a CF he's been worth 7-8 wins the last 2 years and is hitting FA without a QO at age 29.  I won't plant a flag and say he's definitively getting that Chapman deal, but I think people have gotten in their heads that he needed to repeat his 2023 to make opting out worth it.  He mostly just needed to demonstrate that 2021-22 was the fluke, and while he isn't without his imperfections, he has done that.

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Any team that views Bellinger as a capable CF(and there's little reason not to) is going to see that as a CF he's been worth 7-8 wins the last 2 years and is hitting FA without a QO at age 29.  I won't plant a flag and say he's definitively getting that Chapman deal, but I think people have gotten in their heads that he needed to repeat his 2023 to make opting out worth it.  He mostly just needed to demonstrate that 2021-22 was the fluke, and while he isn't without his imperfections, he has done that.

To this point, I do wonder how much PCA weighs into Bellinger's calculus.  Right now I think it's pretty easy to say Cody's played limited CF the last few months due to circumstance.  PCA being all-universe out there plus the fluke finger injury. 

But if PCA is indeed the guy, a year and a half gap in Cody's CF resume feels hard to get over regardless of how viable the excuse is.  And if Bellinger's peers are suddenly corner outfielders and 1st basemen, the bar for a nine figure contract gets real high.

[Tryptamine]

36 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Any team that views Bellinger as a capable CF(and there's little reason not to) is going to see that as a CF he's been worth 7-8 wins the last 2 years and is hitting FA without a QO at age 29.  I won't plant a flag and say he's definitively getting that Chapman deal, but I think people have gotten in their heads that he needed to repeat his 2023 to make opting out worth it.  He mostly just needed to demonstrate that 2021-22 was the fluke, and while he isn't without his imperfections, he has done that.

I thought, and still kind of do, that he needed to be around a 120-125 wRC+ to comfortably opt out and get his $100M deal. Right now he's at 107 and his defense has slipped from 2023. Could he get his $100M deal? Perhaps, but I think it's far from certain enough to leave 27.5M on the table for 2025. 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’ve def thought that Bellinger seems a perfect pivot from the Yankees if/when Soto leaves and dump Verdugo. He’d be a now CF, moves Judge to the less taxing Yankees Stadium RF, and give them more freedom to play Dominguez in their large LF at home. If there’s anything that might entice him to opt out it would be having a tailored fit to that org, right? Even the Dodgers would probably love him back if they had more cap space and fewer LHH…Seattle, Houston…Honestly he’d kill in Arizona, friendly park in an Aging shoulder friendlier environment 

 

Statcast says Bellinger would have 9 (!!!) extra homers if he played in Yankee Stadium or in Philly.  It's not an accident those were the two teams getting tied to him most aggressively as a deadline acquisition before he went on the IL in early July.

[squally1313]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I thought, and still kind of do, that he needed to be around a 120-125 wRC+ to comfortably opt out and get his $100M deal. Right now he's at 107 and his defense has slipped from 2023. Could he get his $100M deal? Perhaps, but I think it's far from certain enough to leave 27.5M on the table for 2025. 

Yeah but it's also a length consideration right (TWSS). To Bertz' point above, he needs a contract two years from now. RIght now his future with the Cubs (obviously things being fluid) is largely as a corner outfielder/back up first baseman with two top 50 prospects having above average runs in AAA. And there's only one spot. He needs consistent PAs, and ideally consistent PAs at a defensive premium position he's still capable of playing, to maximize his overall career earnings. If he can't get them here....maybe 6/120 sounds better than 2/54 and a pretty uncertain future.  

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah but it's also a length consideration right (TWSS). To Bertz' point above, he needs a contract two years from now. RIght now his future with the Cubs (obviously things being fluid) is largely as a corner outfielder/back up first baseman with two top 50 prospects having above average runs in AAA. And there's only one spot. He needs consistent PAs, and ideally consistent PAs at a defensive premium position he's still capable of playing, to maximize his overall career earnings. If he can't get them here....maybe 6/120 sounds better than 2/54 and a pretty uncertain future.  

This is kind of my thought. I never agreed with most people who make it sound like a sure thing he would stay. He is 29, so if he wants a 5 or 6 year deal now is the time. Sure he can make $27.5M next year and then have another good year of salary after that is he sucks next year. But then what? I think he gets a better deal now than what he will get after next year. And it is not inconceivable he does get a 5 or 6 year deal averaging $20M a year.
But if he does go, thr Cubs better aim high. Not Santander or O’Neil. It should be a trade for Tucker or Vlad. Or why not Soto?  If it is a trade they have to extend whoever you trade for. Or if they go with either of those other guys or even Teoacar Hernandez or Alonso they need to make a big pitching move. Either a trade for a front line starter or sign a top line starter. They have plenty of money and plenty of prospects to make two big moves and still have enough to add a pen arm. 
To be clear Alonso on anything more than 3 years is not appealing to me. But he would add power to the line up, if he can be had for the right price and eight years. 

[LBiittner]

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This is kind of my thought. I never agreed with most people who make it sound like a sure thing he would stay. He is 29, so if he wants a 5 or 6 year deal now is the time. Sure he can make $27.5M next year and then have another good year of salary after that is he sucks next year. But then what? I think he gets a better deal now than what he will get after next year. And it is not inconceivable he does get a 5 or 6 year deal averaging $20M a year.
But if he does go, thr Cubs better aim high. Not Santander or O’Neil. It should be a trade for Tucker or Vlad. Or why not Soto?  If it is a trade they have to extend whoever you trade for. Or if they go with either of those other guys or even Teoacar Hernandez or Alonso they need to make a big pitching move. Either a trade for a front line starter or sign a top line starter. They have plenty of money and plenty of prospects to make two big moves and still have enough to add a pen arm. 
To be clear Alonso on anything more than 3 years is not appealing to me. But he would add power to the line up, if he can be had for the right price and eight years. 

So belli @ 20 mil per year is essentially another Ian happ? Just asking. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

So belli @ 20 mil per year is essentially another Ian happ? Just asking. 

I guess so. Not as good a hitter, but he has more versatility. Can play any outfield position and 1st base. Centerfield would obviously be the most appealing for a team, but his vercitility also helps. 
just asking, do you think Happ is worth $20M a year? I know I do. He is a high 3 WAR, to maybe a low to mid 4 WAR. 

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

25 additional pitches from Shota is giving up on the season? 

Risking Shota being more tired for his next start is putting a player's individual accomplishments ahead of the team.  Counsell's job is to do everything he can to maximize the Cubs' chance to win every single game and if he fails to do that yes he's giving up on the season and not doing his job.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Does Chapman signing an extension for 6 years make Cody consider opting out? I feel Chapman got a pretty good deal. Even if Bellinger was given 6/$120M wouldn’t he take that over the current deal? I can see him getting that is Chapman got what he got. 

Chapman got a fantastic deal.  I'm very happy the Cubs didn't sign that deal to a player who will be 32 y/o and am equally happy one of the Cubs' annual wild card competitors signed a mediocre contract like that.

Much happier with Paredes + Shaw at 3B given we can put all that money saved somewhere else.

I think as a FA Bellinger would get something like you said, or maybe 5/110?  Something under 25m AAV likely if it's longterm.

Edited September 6, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

Kiley McDaniel had an article just today where he had an offhand remark saying he thinks Cody'll opt out, which caught my eye.

Overall we're not going to know until it happens.  It more or less depends on Cody's confidence.  If he thinks he is a star and will prove that next year he likely opts in and aims for next winter.  If he wants to play it safe he'll opt out and bank a new deal this winter. 

I think there's a very good chance Cody could land a deal worth more total money than what he'll get with the Cubs guaranteed (52.5m next 2 seasons it looks like) and also be able to get an opt-out included on that new deal.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

That would be a top 10 position player. I'm thinking he'll be closer to a 450 SLG, but he does hit a shitload of fly balls to the pull-side. For a guy that just adopted that approach a couple years ago he's pretty phenomenal at it. IDK man, I've been probably a bit overzealous with my enthusiasm for him at times but I'm confident he is going to be at least average at the plate. The total package is so exciting. 

PCA's stats sucked in July.  Not sure but it seems he made the major change to his hands during his batting stance/load some time after the ASB which seemed to spark his offensive explosion, and he was hitting the ball hard before Aug and not getting results if I recall.  Hard to say what kind of hitting stats he'll put up going forward but things look significantly more promising than a few months ago.

Would be nice if he could get more walks, he'd be an amazing leadoff hitter.  Don't think the walks ever happen but he could still be a good leadoff hitter.

[LBiittner]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I guess so. Not as good a hitter, but he has more versatility. Can play any outfield position and 1st base. Centerfield would obviously be the most appealing for a team, but his vercitility also helps. 
just asking, do you think Happ is worth $20M a year? I know I do. He is a high 3 WAR, to maybe a low to mid 4 WAR. 

I like Ian happ on our team for 20. I also like him in the leadoff spot.

I like belli on his $ if he opts in. I'm not overly confident jed will be able to get someone better, there's always some other team(s) can offer more for players.

PCA's bat coming to life is wonderfully encouraging.

[thawv]

15 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Chapman has already put up 6 WAR, I think theres zero chance Bellinger opts out. Chapman earned that contract, Bellinger wouldnt see anything close to it

Spotrac has Cody's market value at 4/97.  If he can get that, he'll likely opt out. 

[Cuzi]

I'm of the opinion that Bellinger wont opt out. I dont see him getting anything more that what he has now, that being a short term deal with yearly opt outs, but he wont match the AAV in that new deal.

I will say, with the emergence of PCA lately, if Bellinger is looking to prove it next year then it might be best for him to opt out and take less money for a year. His playing time in the field isn't likely to increase on the Cubs, assuming of course that the Cubs are serious about improving the team in the off season and arent just going to find a catcher and a couple pitchers and go with the same lineup with Suzuki at DH.

[Tryptamine]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

Risking Shota being more tired for his next start is putting a player's individual accomplishments ahead of the team.  Counsell's job is to do everything he can to maximize the Cubs' chance to win every single game and if he fails to do that yes he's giving up on the season and not doing his job.

They're 4 games out behind 2 different teams with 22 games to go, it's over. They're sitting at a 2.0% chance. It was still stupid.

[chibears55]

I'm kinda hoping he opts in and the Cubs can trade him just to be able to get something good in return over losing him for nothing if he opts out.

Not sure how close to major league ready they view Caissie and Alcantara, but with them two along with PCA, Happ, Suzuki,  and even Tauchman they're going to have some decisions to make and that don't include IF they have any FA outfielders they'd like to try and get.

Hoyer will be in good position to really build up a solid roster with prospects, trade access, and money along with who already on the roster.