Cubs (Taillon) vs Reds (Spiers): 7/29/24, 6:10pm

[jersey cubs fan]

2 minutes ago, KCCub said:

We shouldn't pencil in a guy as the every day starting 2b who hasn't taken an AB at AAA yet. If he forces his way onto the big league club at some point next season, then we can start looking to move Nico for another need. You're also not getting anywhere near Nico production elsewhere for the $11.5m you save next season by moving Nico. 

AAA is a worthless step in the process that will almost certainly be taken sometime this season anyway. 
 

I didn’t say they’d get his production with just his money. I very clearly said it would be replaced by three factors combined.

 

the bottom line is this core isn’t taking this team anywhere and Nico probably isn’t playing for this team into his 30s. If you can get value for him now in lost season there is a very justifiable reason to do so. 

[jersey cubs fan]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why not trade Shaw then

For what? 
 

I have no problem trading Shaw. But I also have no faith in a defense first limp bat 2B with an history of heath issues exiting his prime being of great use to a hopefully competitive Cubs team in the near future. 

Edited July 29, 2024 by jersey cubs fan

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

For what? 
 

I have no problem trading Shaw. But I also have no faith in a defense first limp bat 2B with an history of heath issues exiting his prime being of great use to a hopefully competitive Cubs team in the near future. 

For whatever can help us in the next two years.

I see an argument that Hoerner is maybe redundant with Dansby, but paying him $12m for his age 28 and 29 years when he's 8th in 2B fWAR this year and 6th since last year doesn't seem high on the list of problems to address.

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, jersey cubs fan said:

AAA is a worthless step in the process that will almost certainly be taken sometime this season anyway. 

If Shaw struggles at AAA then what?

2 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I didn’t say they’d get his production with just his money. I very clearly said it would be replaced by three factors combined.

There's just nothing out there in terms of 2b FA. I don't see a world where you're getting back a starting 2b for Nico, so I just don't believe they are getting Nico's value back.

4 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

the bottom line is this core isn’t taking this team anywhere and Nico probably isn’t playing for this team into his 30s. If you can get value for him now in lost season there is a very justifiable reason to do so. 

There it is, you don't believe in the core.

 

Does it make sense to address a black hole at 3b with a good player just to turnaround and trade a good low cost player at 2b and create another black hole? I don't see that at all. You can add the big bat at RF or DH this offseason without having to move your valuable 2b. You have money to spend, and a large prospect stash to move to address the remaining needs - Big bat, catcher, SP (Maybe), and BP. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I would be down for that but Vladdy is having a monster offensive season. Hes going to be expensive and only under control for one more year if I remember correctly 

Jed doesn't seem like the guy to unload a bunch of good prospects for just 1 year of Vlad.  Send the Jays 40m in cash for Vlad lol.

[jersey cubs fan]

15 minutes ago, KCCub said:

If Shaw struggles at AAA then what?

There's just nothing out there in terms of 2b FA. I don't see a world where you're getting back a starting 2b for Nico, so I just don't believe they are getting Nico's value back.

There it is, you don't believe in the core.

 

Does it make sense to address a black hole at 3b with a good player just to turnaround and trade a good low cost player at 2b and create another black hole? I don't see that at all. You can add the big bat at RF or DH this offseason without having to move your valuable 2b. You have money to spend, and a large prospect stash to move to address the remaining needs - Big bat, catcher, SP (Maybe), and BP. 

Do you think you have uncovered some hidden agenda by pointing out I don’t believe in the core? I don’t. I’ve said it multiple times. Nobody should. It is severely lacking. Not a difference maker in the bunch. I didn’t believe in Morel either. It’s painfully obvious this team needs a major shakeup. They aren’t a filled black hole away from being a top contender. There are flaws all over the place. Hoerner has value, and doesn’t have a no trade clause so you can move on from the guy and get back quality. I’d rather trade Dansby but that’s a separate issue. I can’t imagine a world where Hoerner signs another contract with this team, so make the most of his value while he still has it. 

[Stratos]

47 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

AAA is a worthless step in the process that will almost certainly be taken sometime this season anyway.

AAA is the only place in the minors where you get face older and experienced players who have played in the MLB.  I'd argue its the most valuable level in the minors to learn.

Nico is a 4 WAR player who is having a slightly down year offensively, probably because he's been trying to lift  the ball more and the AVG has gone down with no power gains.  They could trade him next year, no need to put the cart before the horse IMO.

[KCCub]

Just now, Stratos said:

Nico is a 4 WAR player who is having a slightly down year offensively, probably because he's been trying to lift  the ball more and the AVG has gone down with no power gains.  They could trade him next year, no need to put the cart before the horse IMO.

We also don't know how much his fractured hand has impacted him this year. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[squally1313]

43 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Do you think you have uncovered some hidden agenda by pointing out I don’t believe in the core? I don’t. I’ve said it multiple times. Nobody should. It is severely lacking. Not a difference maker in the bunch. I didn’t believe in Morel either. It’s painfully obvious this team needs a major shakeup. They aren’t a filled black hole away from being a top contender. There are flaws all over the place. Hoerner has value, and doesn’t have a no trade clause so you can move on from the guy and get back quality. I’d rather trade Dansby but that’s a separate issue. I can’t imagine a world where Hoerner signs another contract with this team, so make the most of his value while he still has it. 

You don't have to remove players from "The Core" to add players to it. Keep the good players, get more good players at the spots you don't have good players. Baby, bath water, etc. 

[CubinNY]

39 minutes ago, Stratos said:

AAA is the only place in the minors where you get face older and experienced players who have played in the MLB.  I'd argue its the most valuable level in the minors to learn.

 

Maybe a few years ago. Now it's a stash of injury filler and hangers on. Guys who are prospects don't stay in AAA for long. 

[Bertz]

Fedde's been dealt, as has Zach Eflin

Flaherty to NYY sounds pretty far along

Skubal and Crochet sound like they're staying put, and even if not they're a different tier of pitcher

Depending on the overlap between the Taillon and Yusei Kikuchi markets, I don't think there are any other major pieces of leverage impacting a trade left.  If he takes the ball in two hours I'd be pretty shocked if he subsequently gets dealt tomorrow.

Edited July 29, 2024 by Bertz

[PeanutPunch33]

I'm thrilled the Cubs got Paredes, but it's kind of a weak move to give up on Morel.  If they found a way to keep Morel while also getting Parades (which shouldn't have been that hard given their depth of prospect capital) then you really have something with a core of Paredes/Morel/Busch/Suzuki/Hoerner with guys like Caissie and Shaw around the corner.  Morel has struggled this year but he's still a high ceiling player who's underlying stats indicate a 120+ wrc hitter.  There's no shame in having a great DH 

Edited July 29, 2024 by PeanutPunch33

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

There's no shame in having a great DH

Can I interest you in 299/366/551, 387 wOBA, 150 wRC since August 1 of last year?

[Bull]

6 hours ago, squally1313 said:

But they probably aren't getting those types of players in Hoerner or Taillon trades because why would a contending team trade away that type of player? So then you're wanting two separate trades, creating one hole to fill another, and ultimately for me it just seems like unnecessary deck shuffling, not to mention the fact that most of the 'Trade them all' crowd also thinks that Jed is a terrible GM who sucks at his job, so why they'd want him rearranging everything doesn't quite make sense to me. 

Major league ready =/= current first division starter. It means PCA level of "ready". As in, still plenty of work to do, some risk, plenty of upside but unlikely to reach that upside in time for a team trying to go deep in the playoffs this year.

[KCCub]

 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

 

Time to buy!

[Bull]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Why not trade Shaw then

Because our eyes are on 2025 and beyond. The "beyond" part is significant. Hoerner starts getting expensive soon. He is signed through '26 (his age 29 season). Then free agency. If he is not a 100 OPS+ guy he's not going to have as much surplus value in his next contract as in this one.  His .1 dWAR is not going to get better with age. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

So with Bellinger activated, that means someone will have to be sent down when Paredes is added, Mastrobuoni or Bote?

[Bull]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

AAA is the only place in the minors where you get face older and experienced players who have played in the MLB.  I'd argue its the most valuable level in the minors to learn.

Nico is a 4 WAR player who is having a slightly down year offensively, probably because he's been trying to lift  the ball more and the AVG has gone down with no power gains.  They could trade him next year, no need to put the cart before the horse IMO.

Nearly half of that WAR has been defense in the past. None of it is this year. How much of his reduced dWAR is regression/age, how much is having more fly ball pitchers, and how much is "having a down year"?

[Outshined_One]

26 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

So with Bellinger activated, that means someone will have to be sent down when Paredes is added, Mastrobuoni or Bote?

Can we send either down into a ditch?

[WhyCantWeWin]

Saw this on marquee, Paredes posted on instagram about missing that short porch in left. Blud knows his home run numbers are doomed

[Tryptamine]

They didn't scratch Taillon so pretty safe to say he isn't going anywhere. 

[Bull]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They didn't scratch Taillon so pretty safe to say he isn't going anywhere. 

I think they would have (and still could, I guess) if they were overwhelmed with an offer that they felt made them better in '25 and beyond. They just...weren't.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

They didn't scratch Taillon so pretty safe to say he isn't going anywhere. 

Because of his money owed. He's just not a good bet to give a team surplus value. Teams aren't going to pay with the type of prospects that would make sense for the Cubs to pull the trigger and pay his remaining salary. Been saying that for weeks.