Cubs (Taillon) vs Reds (Spiers): 7/29/24, 6:10pm

[WhyCantWeWin]

13 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t think like this is, don’t understand how anyone can. Not only is it unnecessarily dramatic (Disney baby think I call it) and simple but, like so much about this society that people choose to prop up, it doesn’t actually exist. It’s not a real thing or way, the Cubs are in no real danger and never have been 

So are you saying they cant be competitive or they will reduce their likelihood of being competitive in 2025 if they deal Hoerner or Taillon?

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

So are you saying they cant be competitive or they will reduce their likelihood of being competitive in 2025 if they deal Hoerner or Taillon?

I'm saying the second one

[WhyCantWeWin]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I'm saying the second one

Its possible yeah, but i feel like that Passan tweet TT posted makes a good point that even if they do move talent like Taillon or Hoerner, they can still acquire something that helps them in the near future. Like acquiring a mlb ready catcher or bullpen arm/closer. 
I think Hoyer is past looking at 18 year old high ceiling kids in A ball

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

ChatGPT, translate this for me.

It has crossed my mind more than once that Tom is just trolling us all and having chat gpt come up with these things he posts.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Its possible yeah, but i feel like that Passan tweet TT posted makes a good point that even if they do move talent like Taillon or Hoerner, they can still acquire something that helps them in the near future. Like acquiring a mlb ready catcher or bullpen arm/closer. 
I think Hoyer is past looking at 18 year old high ceiling kids in A ball

I mean he has straight up said he's only making moves that improve the club for 2025+ so I can't imagine him making any moves that don't involve either current MLB players or guys who are just about MLB ready unless they just get blown away with a package that is too good to say no to.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m not trying to be a dick but what do you think trading two starters will do? Not like what can it do if everything goes amazing and perfect, but what is most likely

I take no offense to anything Tom, let loose. 
I think they can trade those 2 for an immediate need on the team, which is catcher/closer/power in general. Specific names they can target i dont really have, I wanted Teel from the red sox but he might be a year away and like you said thats sort of a gamble. 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Its possible yeah, but i feel like that Passan tweet TT posted makes a good point that even if they do move talent like Taillon or Hoerner, they can still acquire something that helps them in the near future. Like acquiring a mlb ready catcher or bullpen arm/closer. 
I think Hoyer is past looking at 18 year old high ceiling kids in A ball

But they probably aren't getting those types of players in Hoerner or Taillon trades because why would a contending team trade away that type of player? So then you're wanting two separate trades, creating one hole to fill another, and ultimately for me it just seems like unnecessary deck shuffling, not to mention the fact that most of the 'Trade them all' crowd also thinks that Jed is a terrible GM who sucks at his job, so why they'd want him rearranging everything doesn't quite make sense to me. 

[Eeyore]

Trade Taillon and then get Crochet. He won't have to worry about pitching in the playoffs on the Cubs this year.

Edited July 29, 2024 by Eeyore
Extra word

[Irrelevant Dude]

33 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t think like this is, don’t understand how anyone can. Not only is it unnecessarily dramatic (Disney baby think I call it) and simple but, like so much about this society that people choose to prop up, it doesn’t actually exist. It’s not a real thing or way, the Cubs are in no real danger and never have been 

ChatGPT did a pretty good job with this! 

Quote

 

This passage seems to express the speaker's disbelief and frustration about a particular perspective or behavior. Here’s a breakdown of the key points:

1. **Disbelief in the Perspective**: The speaker states, "I don’t think like this is, don’t understand how anyone can," indicating that they cannot relate to or comprehend this way of thinking.

2. **Criticism of Drama and Simplicity**: They describe the perspective as "unnecessarily dramatic (Disney baby think I call it) and simple." The term "Disney baby" might suggest that they view it as overly sentimental or naive, akin to something from a Disney movie.

3. **Commentary on Society**: The speaker criticizes society for supporting this perspective, saying it "doesn’t actually exist. It’s not a real thing or way," implying that it is based on falsehoods or illusions.

4. **Reference to the Cubs**: Finally, they mention "the Cubs are in no real danger and never have been," which could be a metaphor or a literal reference. If metaphorical, it suggests that the perceived threat or issue is non-existent. If literal, it might refer to a specific situation involving the Cubs (likely the Chicago Cubs baseball team) where the danger is exaggerated or fabricated.

Overall, the passage conveys a sense of skepticism towards a certain mindset or societal norm that the speaker finds unrealistic and overly dramatic.

 

Edited July 29, 2024 by Irrelevant Dude

[WhyCantWeWin]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But they probably aren't getting those types of players in Hoerner or Taillon trades because why would a contending team trade away that type of player? So then you're wanting two separate trades, creating one hole to fill another, and ultimately for me it just seems like unnecessary deck shuffling, not to mention the fact that most of the 'Trade them all' crowd also thinks that Jed is a terrible GM who sucks at his job, so why they'd want him rearranging everything doesn't quite make sense to me. 

But since Taillon and Hoerner have value beyond 2024, i think more teams could be involved. Like the Paredes and Morel swap. Teams arent just buyers and sellers anymore, just acquiring talent. One mans trash another mans treasure, trading from a position of strength to cover a weakness and all that 

[Rex Buckingham]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It has crossed my mind more than once that Tom is just trolling us all and having chat gpt come up with these things he posts.

nah, it's too consistent. It's his own brand of thinking for sure...

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

But since Taillon and Hoerner have value beyond 2024, i think more teams could be involved. Like the Paredes and Morel swap. Teams arent just buyers and sellers anymore, just acquiring talent. One mans trash another mans treasure, trading from a position of strength to cover a weakness and all that 

Yeah totally fair, but I wouldn't call starting pitching depth an area of strength. I think the Rays made that move because 1. Paredes was going to hit arbitration and had the flashy stats/all star appearances and the Rays are more budget conscious than anyone outside of Oakland, and 2. they've got 2 top 5 prospects in baseball less than a year away on the left side of the infield. 

Shaw and Triantos are not Caminero and Carson Williams, and I would really hope we aren't the type of team who looks at a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher making $18m and consider that a fiscal crisis. If it's May 2025 and Shaw or Triantos are destroying AAA, then I'll consider it a position of strength. Hoerner will still have plenty of value there. 

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah totally fair, but I wouldn't call starting pitching depth an area of strength. I think the Rays made that move because 1. Paredes was going to hit arbitration and had the flashy stats/all star appearances and the Rays are more budget conscious than anyone outside of Oakland, and 2. they've got 2 top 5 prospects in baseball less than a year away on the left side of the infield. 

Shaw and Triantos are not Caminero and Carson Williams, and I would really hope we aren't the type of team who looks at a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher making $18m and consider that a fiscal crisis. If it's May 2025 and Shaw or Triantos are destroying AAA, then I'll consider it a position of strength. Hoerner will still have plenty of value there. 

Yea I just don't see a path where moving Hoerner makes sense right now. I'm a believer on making prospects force their way onto the team. At that point, it's a great problem to have if Shaw for example is destroying AAA early next season. It doesn't make sense to fix our 3b problem just to create the same exact problem at 2b next season (See the 2b FA class). 

[Andy]

51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Passan made the point well in the aftermath of the trade yesterday

 

It occurs to me that these sorts of moves are a natural byproduct of buyers being far less willing to trade impact prospects anymore, no matter how good the player coming back is. When the price gets lower, it produces a chance to think creatively.

[Bertz]

I do not think trading Hoerner and trading Taillon are all that comparable.  Hoerner is a much better player and much much much more difficult to replace (much less improve upon).

Trading Nico should basically be a non-starter at this point unless there's some perfect needle threading move out there where you address catcher with an immediate contributor a la the Brewers Burnes/Ortiz trade.

[Tryptamine]

A Taillon replacement in FA/Trade would be much easier to pull off than a Nico replacement. Plus I get the feeling that Nico is one of those guys who doesn't get properly valued in trades seeing as the majority of his value comes from defense/baserunning. I don't think a Nico deal is impossible, but you'd have to get pretty creative.

[jersey cubs fan]

It makes a ton of sense to trade Hoerner now. He’s been an injury waiting to happen throughout his youth and isn’t young anymore. He’s done the best he can be and it isn’t all that great. Defensive led WAR doesn’t last with age at athletically centric positions (probably). I think Hoerner can be replaced in 2025. 
 

Taillon less so. You need 7+ quality starting pitchers to go through a season and remain competitive. I’m not against trading him at the deadline because teams overpay for starting pitching midseason, but I see no point in trading him in the offseason when you are unlikely to get as much in return and still need pitchers for 2025. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Move Nico, bring in Vladito, push Busch to 2b.

Easy. 

[KCCub]

7 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

It makes a ton of sense to trade Hoerner now. He’s been an injury waiting to happen throughout his youth and isn’t young anymore. He’s done the best he can be and it isn’t all that great. Defensive led WAR doesn’t last with age at athletically centric positions (probably). I think Hoerner can be replaced in 2025. 

The great thing about Nico is he's under contract for only two more seasons - his age 28 and 29 seasons. Age isn't a concern there. He also only has an AAV of $11.67m, has been worth 4.2 and 4.5 fWAR the previous two seasons and will probably be around 3 fWAR this season. How are you replacing that value in 2025?

[WhyCantWeWin]

5 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Move Nico, bring in Vladito, push Busch to 2b.

Easy. 

I would be down for that but Vladdy is having a monster offensive season. Hes going to be expensive and only under control for one more year if I remember correctly 

[jersey cubs fan]

30 minutes ago, KCCub said:

The great thing about Nico is he's under contract for only two more seasons - his age 28 and 29 seasons. Age isn't a concern there. He also only has an AAV of $11.67m, has been worth 4.2 and 4.5 fWAR the previous two seasons and will probably be around 3 fWAR this season. How are you replacing that value in 2025?

By whatever you get back in the trade plus the money plus a rising prospect taking his position, presumably Shaw. 

[chibears55]

They should skip Taillon start tonight in case they do get a good offer for him, you never know a team could get desperate on deadline day or an injury could happen. 

Also

If there's any thoughts of moving Bellinger or seeing any offers for him, he will likely be activated tonight if healthy. 

[KCCub]

3 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

By whatever you get back in the trade plus the money plus a rising prospect taking his position, presumably Shaw. 

We shouldn't pencil in a guy as the every day starting 2b who hasn't taken an AB at AAA yet. If he forces his way onto the big league club at some point next season, then we can start looking to move Nico for another need. You're also not getting anywhere near Nico production elsewhere for the $11.5m you save next season by moving Nico. 

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

By whatever you get back in the trade plus the money plus a rising prospect taking his position, presumably Shaw. 

Why not trade Shaw then

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

They should skip Taillon start tonight in case they do get a good offer for him, you never know a team could get desperate on deadline day or an injury could happen. 

Also

If there's any thoughts of moving Bellinger or seeing any offers for him, he will likely be activated tonight if healthy. 

Definitely. They'd only have to push him back one day.