Cubs Trading for Isaac Paredes?!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

20 minutes ago, Stratos said:

The worrisome thing with the trade is that Paredes has downside potential (especially with the Cubs), while Morel, Bigge, and Ty Johnson have upside potential.

But I think there's real risk for both sides.  Morel may just be a bad fielder everywhere and continue to not make the adjustments he needs against pitchers.  He's got some Patrick Wisdom to his game.

I don't think the trade is some grand fleecing, but the framing here is more than a little silly.  Bigge is a pop up relief prospect, he's a 26 y/o 12th round college draftee that no one outside the deepest of prospect nerds paid any attention to until about 10 months ago. The upside he has is no more unique than it is for hundreds of pro pitchers.  Similarly, Johnson is pitching well and on an upward trend, but he's still a 15th rounder without dynamite stuff throwing 4 innings at a time in A ball.  His 'upside potential' is maybe being an up and down depth starter or matchup reliever.  These players have value, but they are also very fungible, any remotely competent farm system is churning out several of them every year.

And then there's Paredes v. Morel, the idea that Paredes carries 'risk' while Morel has 'upside' is mostly just code for 'Paredes has played well while Morel has not'.  Paredes is 4 *months* older than Morel, and has only 1 fewer year of team control.  There is the chance that Paredes doesn't continue to hit as well as he has since the start of last year(this is 1000 plate appearances, but I digress).  A reasonable version of a regressed Paredes is something like a 115-120 wRC+ with average 3B defense.  That's close to a best case scenario of the 'upside' version of Morel if multiple things start going right for him!  Maybe he trades some defense for more offense in his version, but the value would be the same.  So if Paredes and Morel are at the same point in the age curve, there's little difference in their service time value, and the 'downside' version of Paredes is as good as the 'upside' version of Morel, then why are we framing this in such guarded terms?

[UMFan83]

If anyone wants to get a feel for Parades' power, here is a video of all 31 of his HRs in 2023:

 

[Bertz]

People on Twitter are way overcorrecting on the expected homerun stuff.  It's basically a live example of the bell curve meme

 

[KCCub]

33 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

If anyone wants to get a feel for Parades' power, here is a video of all 31 of his HRs in 2023:

 

Idk, call me crazy, but I think a guy who puts the ball in the air at over a 70% clip is going to be a welcomed sight at Wrigley in the summer time. His away HR/FB % is down 4% this year from last. If we are expecting the offensive environment to improve next year (I sure think it will), then we might see gains there. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Even if they're not HRs, I feel that a lot of balls into that corner are still going to be doubles

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

People on Twitter are way overcorrecting on the expected homerun stuff.  It's basically a live example of the bell curve meme

 

The expected homerun stuff is misleading too because it assumes he's playing every game at Wrigley.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rex Buckingham said:

Even if they're not HRs, I feel that a lot of balls into that corner are still going to be doubles

This as well to my above post. It's not like if they aren't homeruns they're just outs.

[Bull]

Has anyone looked into how deep left center field is in Tampa? I think some fly balls there could be basket shots at Wrigley.

[CubinNY]

Here’s the thing about expected HRs.

its nonsense. 
 

You cannot take the behavior out of the context in which it occurred.

Now, you can say all his power is pull side. That’s ok and maybe true. But it means 0 about what he will do in a Cubs uniform moving forward. 
 

The End. 

[LBiittner]

Love this paredes deal, now is the snell smoke just a bunch silly horsefeathers ?

[Bertz]

Since the start of '22 Paredes has been worth 9.6 WAR, and played at a 4.2 WAR/600 pace.  If you remove all those expected homers, and like others have said that's pretty faulty logic for several reasons, he drops down to 7.5 WAR and a 3.3/600 pace.  That's the floor more or less.

So yes some shine comes off the Paredes apple leaving the Trop, but he's still a 3.something WAR player at a position where we have gotten -0.3 so far this year.

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Since the start of '22 Paredes has been worth 9.6 WAR, and played at a 4.2 WAR/600 pace.  If you remove all those expected homers, and like others have said that's pretty faulty logic for several reasons, he drops down to 7.5 WAR and a 3.3/600 pace.  That's the floor more or less.

So yes some shine comes off the Paredes apple leaving the Trop, but he's still a 3.something WAR player at a position where we have gotten -0.3 so far this year.

Exactly. Even if there's some hesitation on just how good Parades will be with the Cubs (will it be 130, 30 HR wRC+ guy? Or like, 118 wRC+ guy who hits 25 home runs?) this trade feels like a great utilization of assets. I really liked Morel as a dude, and I think there's a realistic world where he hits 35 home runs and is a really good middle order guy...but I think the Cubs did great here. They turned a guy they didn't need as much (a DH) and turned them into a dude they did need (a 3b). That 3b is 25. Controlled. 

I'll miss Morel. I'll wish Bigge and Johnson the best. But I feel pretty happy with how they did this. It's a far departure from the last major Cub/Rays deal for Garza, IMO.

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Since the start of '22 Paredes has been worth 9.6 WAR, and played at a 4.2 WAR/600 pace.  If you remove all those expected homers, and like others have said that's pretty faulty logic for several reasons, he drops down to 7.5 WAR and a 3.3/600 pace.  That's the floor more or less.

So yes some shine comes off the Paredes apple leaving the Trop, but he's still a 3.something WAR player at a position where we have gotten -0.3 so far this year.

This is pretty much what I said earlier. Even if you build in regression because of Wrigley, you're still looking at a guy who is probably a top 10 3B. If the truth is somewhere in between then you've got a borderline all-star.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Even if they're not HRs, I feel that a lot of balls into that corner are still going to be doubles

My only issue with that thought is that Paredes is 4th in baseball in average launch angle (among qualified hitters) and the 10th lowest average EV in baseball.  Maybe my logic is wrong but I'd think more likely the balls that end up short are going to end up being flyouts to the track and not line drives off the wall more often than not.

If I'm right it doesn't really tarnish him by any means, I'm confident he'll continue to be a productive hitter.

Edited July 29, 2024 by UMFan83

[731.4life]

Just figured Jed gave Morel every chance he can prove to play every day and get at bats. While he doesn't have a position, there were opportunities for him to get AB's. He didn't perform, and that's that. I can careless about his BABIP or the "unlucky" stats, he hit under .200 and doesn't play defense. When Counsell put Mastrobuoni in at third base in Baltimore, I can get a sense of something is about to happen. 

Bigge was the one I hated to see go, but I know the Cubs have several bullpen arms to pitch in Chicago for years to come, and 100 MPH's pitchers are common nowadays. 

Happy to have Isaac Parades as a Cub for the years to come. Don't think it'll block Cam Smith because he won't be in Chicago until at least 2026. This trade also gives clarity at the DH spot because they can move Suzuki there and promote Caissie. They now have options at that spot. 

With all that being said, did the Cubs get better today? Yes.

[Stratos]

34 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Since the start of '22 Paredes has been worth 9.6 WAR, and played at a 4.2 WAR/600 pace.  If you remove all those expected homers, and like others have said that's pretty faulty logic for several reasons, he drops down to 7.5 WAR and a 3.3/600 pace.  That's the floor more or less.

So yes some shine comes off the Paredes apple leaving the Trop, but he's still a 3.something WAR player at a position where we have gotten -0.3 so far this year.

If he's around a 3.0 WAR player for us i'd be pleased with that, and there's potential for more given the last 2 seasons.  Last year 3.0 WAR would rank him around 10th for 3B in MLB and what Matt Chapman and Candelario put up.

Looking at the expected HR stats on Savant he'd lose some HR at Wrigley but still looks like a 20 HR type guy.

[mfcubs22]

My guess is Brandon Lowe is dealt in the offseason (10.5M club option) and Christopher Morel is your Rays opening day 2B. 
 

Also think Nico gets dealt this offseason (or maybe next TDL) with Madrigal/Mastro/Bote keeping the spot warm for Shaw/Trianots. 
 

Lastly, does this open up a possibility for a Vlad trade since you don’t have to commit 2025 DH to Morel?

[NorthsideAvenger]

This feels like a smart trade for the Cubs. Even if/when Morel/Bigge becomes things for the Rays, the Cubs accomplished something they needed to. 

I like it.

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, mfcubs22 said:

My guess is Brandon Lowe is dealt in the offseason (10.5M club option) and Christopher Morel is your Rays opening day 2B. 
 

Also think Nico gets dealt this offseason (or maybe next TDL) with Madrigal/Mastro/Bote keeping the spot warm for Shaw/Trianots. 
 

Lastly, does this open up a possibility for a Vlad trade since you don’t have to commit 2025 DH to Morel?

I'd say this opens up RF, with Seiya going to DH. There's a lot of RF available in FA.

[squally1313]

37 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

My only issue with that thought is that Paredes is 4th in baseball in average launch angle (among qualified hitters) and the 10th lowest average EV in baseball.  Maybe my logic is wrong but I'd think more likely the balls that end up short are going to end up being flyouts to the track and not line drives off the wall more often than not.

If I'm right it doesn't really tarnish him by any means, I'm confident he'll continue to be a productive hitter.

Hahaha as the resident pessimistic stat guy, I nominate you to keep a running tally of warning track outs.

[Stratos]

Why we love Morel.  Going to miss this:

https://x.com/Cut4/status/1548768110018273280

Edited July 29, 2024 by Stratos

[squally1313]

This might be loser talk, but I don't get all this fear of Morel figuring things out because in my opinion he absolutely was never going to figure things out as a Cub. I guess technically the development side of the house also falls under Jed's purview, but Morel turning into a .350 wOBA guy next year (still with bad defense) shouldn't be looked at as some failing of Jed on the trading side. Guy had almost 1300 PAs and put up 2.9 fWAR. Go get a real asset for him and if someone else fixes him, good for them. 

[KCCub]

12 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

This feels like a smart trade for the Cubs. Even if/when Morel/Bigge becomes things for the Rays, the Cubs accomplished something they needed to. 

I like it.

Agreed. I really hope Morel & Bigge are successful. It's almost like the twitter world doesn't understand that this can be a good thing for both sides and in terms of team context it makes since for both teams.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

This might be loser talk, but I don't get all this fear of Morel figuring things out because in my opinion he absolutely was never going to figure things out as a Cub. I guess technically the development side of the house also falls under Jed's purview, but Morel turning into a .350 wOBA guy next year (still with bad defense) shouldn't be looked at as some failing of Jed on the trading side. Guy had almost 1300 PAs and put up 2.9 fWAR. Go get a real asset for him and if someone else fixes him, good for them. 

Paredes is what we hoped Morel would've been. 

[JD94]

42 minutes ago, mfcubs22 said:

My guess is Brandon Lowe is dealt in the offseason (10.5M club option) and Christopher Morel is your Rays opening day 2B. 
 

Also think Nico gets dealt this offseason (or maybe next TDL) with Madrigal/Mastro/Bote keeping the spot warm for Shaw/Trianots. 
 

Lastly, does this open up a possibility for a Vlad trade since you don’t have to commit 2025 DH to Morel?

I wouldn’t be mad at a lineup with Vlad, Paredes, and Soto in it lol. It seems so possible but so impossible at the same time.