Cubs Trading for Isaac Paredes?!

[UMFan83]

Damn, I'm really sad to see Morel giving hugs in the dugout.  I am ok with trading him but he brought a lot of energy and swag in an otherwise down period for the Cubs...sucks to lose someone fun like that.  And the fact that the Rays traded for him terrifies me that he'll rake in TB.

On paper I like the trade but it still stings a bit.

[Tryptamine]

Other than getting great value, I love that this let's Seiya become your DH and gives you the option to move Nico in the offseason. 

[DYMNO]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Damn, I'm really sad to see Morel giving hugs in the dugout.  I am ok with trading him but he brought a lot of energy and swag in an otherwise down period for the Cubs...sucks to lose someone fun like that.  And the fact that the Rays traded for him terrifies me that he'll rake in TB.

On paper I like the trade but it still stings a bit.

My sentiments exactly. 

[Bertz]

The major reason I didn't want Paredes is because I expected to pay 4 win prices for a guy likely to play closer to a 3 win player.  This price though feels like it properly values him as that latter guy.

Also the farm is essentially fully intact, as is the cache of young SP.  If Jed wants to make another big trade this winter he can and would still likely still have a top 10 farm afterwards.

[UMFan83]

Parades now has the highest fWAR on the Cubs (2.9), beating Imanaga (2.5) and Michael Busch (2.1)

[gflore34]

Don't mind the trade at all, Morel, for all of his joy/excitement, is not an everyday player and he doesn't have a position.  At the very least, Paredes can play a competent 3B.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The major reason I didn't want Paredes is because I expected to pay 4 win prices for a guy likely to play closer to a 3 win player.  This price though feels like it properly values him as that latter guy.

Also the farm is essentially fully intact, as is the cache of young SP.  If Jed wants to make another big trade this winter he can and would still likely still have a top 10 farm afterwards.

Why do you see him as closer to a 3 win player?  He was 4.3 last year, on pace for 4 this year.  Only 25 years old.  Is there something that in his profile that suggests the last 1.75 years are not representative of his ability?  I really haven't paid a ton of attention to him to be honest.

I see that all of his power is from pulling balls, but it doesn't seem to have affected his performance thus far? 

Edited July 28, 2024 by UMFan83

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

And the fact that the Rays traded for him terrifies me that he'll rake in TB.

I hope he does (unless it is against the Cubs).  I know human nature is to want to "win" the trade.  In reality though, after the trade has been made, it really doesn't matter what the other guy does.  So I'll keep rooting for Morel like I root for guys like Baez and Schwarber.

[jersey cubs fan]

Don’t know anything about the acquisition but it was obvious morel was not long for this team a year ago so, cool?

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Why do you see him as closer to a 3 win player?  He was 4.3 last year, on pace for 4 this year.  Only 25 years old.  Is there something that in his profile that suggests the last 1.75 years are not representative of his ability?  I really haven't paid a ton of attention to him to be honest.

I see that all of his power is from pulling balls, but it doesn't seem to have affected his performance thus far? 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park

Yeah he's a pull freak and will lose some dongs with the move to Wrigley.  Not enough to make him bad but probably enough that he's  more 1st division starter than fringe All Star

[UMFan83]

Parades had 20 home runs in 2022, 31 in 2023 and 16 this year.  If all his games were at Wrigley, he'd have 18 in 2022, 25 in 2023 and 11 in 2024.  So playing at a park that is deep down the lines will kill some of that HR power but not as much as I would have thought. 

Good thing he's not going to Baltimore though, he'd have 9 in 2022, 9 in 2023 and 6 in 2024!

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park

Yeah he's a pull freak and will lose some dongs with the move to Wrigley.  Not enough to make him bad but probably enough that he's  more 1st division starter than fringe All Star

If I"m reading that chart right, it's counting how *all* his home runs would look at wrigley.  Presumably the effect would be lessened if it accounted for road games.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On paper, this seems like a really, really good trade and not an easy one to find. Using the team's glut of prospects to get a legit plus player at the MLB level with years of cheap control left.

[UMFan83]

Here is Parades expected HRs by park.  

[Rob]

18 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Carries risk, but decisively attempts to fix a position of need for multiple seasons.  Doesn't touch prospect depth, fixes the potential logjam of DH's at the MLB level, and doesn't add meaningful payroll.  Fantastic.

I do fear that the Rays will be the ones to somehow take Morel's prodigious physical tools and coach him into being a passable defender somewhere on the diamond. He could be a 5 fWAR player if that ever happens.

But when it comes right down to it, this is just an exchange of risk profiles. We gave up a guy with a bat and a risky glove, and got a guy with a glove and a risky bat.

Given the dearth of 3B options in our system, this makes an awful lot of sense.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Using the team's glut of prospects to get a legit plus player at the MLB level with years of cheap control left.

I would argue they didn't even do that.  They really didn't touch any prospects with meaningful value.

[Rob]

9 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Don’t know anything about the acquisition but it was obvious morel was not long for this team a year ago so, cool?

Yeah. Part of me was rooting for the Cubs to trade him during the offseason. I was worried his value might tank if he showed an inability to play the field.

But this feels like getting pretty close to full value for Morel's potential despite the last few months. So I'm good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Rob said:

I do fear that the Rays will be the ones to somehow take Morel's prodigious physical tools and coach him into being a passable defender somewhere on the diamond. He could be a 5 fWAR player if that ever happens.

But when it comes right down to it, this is just an exchange of risk profiles. We gave up a guy with a bat and a risky glove, and got a guy with a glove and a risky bat.

Given the dearth of 3B options in our system, this makes an awful lot of sense.

I do not fear that even a little bit, there is pretty overwhelming evidence that Morel does not have the necessary skill to be a capable MLB defender. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I would argue they didn't even do that.  They really didn't touch any prospects with meaningful value.

In our perception yeah, looking at top prospects lists and all that. Rays had to have loved these guys for a reason 

[Tim]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I do not fear that even a little bit, there is pretty overwhelming evidence that Morel does not have the necessary skill to be a capable MLB defender. 

He absolutely has the skill. He just lacks the consistency.

[Tryptamine]

I'm actually most saddened by losing Bigge who I think ends up being a dominant reliever, assuming he stays healthy.

[Tim]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

In our perception yeah, looking at top prospects lists and all that. Rays had to have loved these guys for a reason 

Bigge was my favorite relief prospect. Ty Johnson was going to start getting ranked after this year. He's got really good stuff and has gotten results across two levels this year. He's rapidly overcoming the 15th round selection bias.

[SOFNR]

The trade definitely looks pretty good on paper. It's scary it's Tampa though. Hopefully it works out well for everybody.

Edited July 28, 2024 by SOFNR

[LBiittner]

I hate jed a little less today. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

He absolutely has the skill. He just lacks the consistency.

The consistency is the skill, he is not coordinated enough to be able to regularly make all the movements needed to be successful.  He doesn't make errors for lack of concentration, it's because he is not able to make the subtle physical adjustments to the variety of plays he faces as a pro infielder, despite years of repetitions.