5/8 Cubs (Wesneski) vs. Padres (Cease) 1:20 PM CT

[Brian707]

9 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

This teams lack of a bonafide superstar player is what I feel like most holds them back. Hoyer still seems to have that weird misconception that a team can be successful with a bunch of meh guys. They need a superstar like Soto or Ohtani, too bad neither player were available this past offseason. 

This is because we are fans of a small market ball club.  22-16. Cubs likely going to the playoffs as a #3-6 seed. Maybe make NLDS= maximum profits for PTR

[squally1313]

39 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

This is because we are fans of a small market ball club.  22-16. Cubs likely going to the playoffs as a #3-6 seed. Maybe make NLDS= maximum profits for PTR

Notice the goalposts moving on what we're going to complain about. The Cubs have gotten 9 innings out of their opening day starter, 15 games out of their best hitter, and their top offensive FA signing has also missed 14 games. Taillon (hey, maybe another good signing) has also missed significant time. We're on pace for 94 wins and now the complaint is 'well, yeah, we'll make the playoffs but probably only win one round'. Meanwhile everyone offseason was taking the 83 wins and subtracting like 12 or whatever as a starting point. 

[Brian707]

Nobody is moving goal posts. Its a minor miracle with all the injuries they are 22-16. Did anyone think the Cubs at the beginning of the season would be WS contenders? That should be the goal from ownership/management.

[WhyCantWeWin]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Both of those guys were on teams last year that basically sucked. If the bullpen was performing at an average level, the Cubs would be all alone in first place without three of their best players for a significant portion of the season. 

My point wasn’t that those guys can carry a team on their own, don’t think anyone can do that in a sport like baseball. My thought is that one of those types of players is what this current Cubs team needs. With how the offense is constructed of extremely streaky hitters. 

[BigbadB]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

My point wasn’t that those guys can carry a team on their own, don’t think anyone can do that in a sport like baseball. My thought is that one of those types of players is what this current Cubs team needs. With how the offense is constructed of extremely streaky hitters. 

Having the envisioned roster in place is what helped put them in first place. Getting Suzuki back along with now having Bellinger back should help the situation. I don't think either of the guys you named were real possibilities for the Cubs. I'd go as far as to say that Ohtani wasn't a possibility at all. Soto was going to be a one year rental, and I'll take Bellinger and Shota over that one year of Soto all day long. Of course, that's hindsight, but don't think the Cubs wanted to cough up the farm for Soto. 

[sneakypower]

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain any serious contention, and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

Edited May 9, 2024 by sneakypower

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, sneakypower said:

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain anything and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

Couldn't have said it better myself. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Nobody is moving goal posts. Its a minor miracle with all the injuries they are 22-16. Did anyone think the Cubs at the beginning of the season would be WS contenders? That should be the goal from ownership/management.

Now that's the baseline expectation? We won 74 games in 2022, 83 games in 2023, and are on pace to win 94 this year, which you're either implying is lucky ('minor miracle') or you think they're even better than that (given all the injuries they've had to play through). 

Like, if this is just one of those 'Wrigley is a goldmine, Chicago is a major market, Tom is rich, we should be winning 100 games every year' complaint....sure, have at it. But (still) complaining about Soto or Ohtani in the middle of May with a first place team seems exhausting. 

[UMFan83]

16 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain any serious contention, and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

I see what you are saying especially how the pythag record suggests we're getting lucky, but I think the SP regression can be offset by the offense playing better but also the bullpen not blowing games at a historic rate.  The Cubs are likely 4ish games better than they've played with 1-2 more reliable bullpen arms (assuming that 3 or 4 of the 6 games they lost with a lead late are won in that scenario).  Hopefully having guys like Ben Brown and Wesneski in the pen makes a difference.  Having Bellinger and Seiya back plus improvements from Happ and Dansby turn the 1-2 run wins we've been having into 3-4 run wins, helping our pythag record.

Edited May 9, 2024 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain any serious contention, and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

Worth pointing out (without doing the specific pythag there) that that the Cubs have an overall record of 15-8 in games started by those particular guys, because obviously it's leaving out Hendricks (et al). We can afford a lot more regression from a pitching staff that has given us a 106 win pace in their starts.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They're also going to see the schedule break in their favor pretty soon, many of us said going in that the goal was to tread water during the early stretch of the season.  These numbers are still fairly squishy but I think representative.  13 of the 29 non-Cubs teams are below .500, 45%.  Only 13 of the 38 games so far(34%) have been against those teams.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

16 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain any serious contention, and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

This is what's left. A mixed bag of horsefeathers. Merryweather and Palencia may be dead. Hendricks may be done. Neris may hopefully stop walking everyone. Alzolay and Smyly (if he's alive) may stop throwing BP. There isn't a lot about the bullpen that makes me feel happy.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, sneakypower said:

the pythag record is still just 20-18 and nice to say that this is all despite key injuries (no other team experiences these hardships) but SP regression will probably hit way harder than the offsetting benefits we get from returning regulars

all of this is to say, the bullpen and offense have to play way better to sustain any serious contention, and a trade or two is likely needed for the former to happen, and the latter should be seriously considered as well

You have 5 SP with ERAs like that in mid may, you'd think their record would be around 30-8 not 22-16

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

You have 5 SP with ERAs like that in mid may, you'd think their record would be around 30-8 not 22-16

15-8 from those guys (9 total starts from Wes, Steele, Jamo). Obviously the bullpen hasn't been great...they were asked to do a lot due to some of the early struggles, and frankly haven't done their job. And Counsell has, until very recently, kept a really tight leash on the starters, which you could probably argue has at least contributed to how successful the starters have been....goal is to get the pen right and find the right middle ground on leaning on the starters vs keeping them rested and effective. 

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

You have 5 SP with ERAs like that in mid may, you'd think their record would be around 30-8 not 22-16

It's almost like teams allocate resources in different ways and that impacts which parts of their roster index higher or lower than the league as a whole

[Brian707]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Now that's the baseline expectation? We won 74 games in 2022, 83 games in 2023, and are on pace to win 94 this year, which you're either implying is lucky ('minor miracle') or you think they're even better than that (given all the injuries they've had to play through). 

Like, if this is just one of those 'Wrigley is a goldmine, Chicago is a major market, Tom is rich, we should be winning 100 games every year' complaint....sure, have at it. But (still) complaining about Soto or Ohtani in the middle of May with a first place team seems exhausting. 

Where in this thread did I complain about Soto or Ohtani?

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Where in this thread did I complain about Soto or Ohtani?

My bad. Saw your small market comment, and then the comment from BBB and mixed them up. Still think if your expectation is World Series contender year in and year out, you're probably going to be left unhappy a majority of the time. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, @Rex Buckingham is up for today's game thread.

[LBiittner]

 Removed from this thread

Edited May 10, 2024 by LBiittner

[Rex Buckingham]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Okay, @Rex Buckingham is up for today's game thread.

my bad, was substitute teaching today and didn't get to the board til now

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Rex Buckingham said:

my bad, was substitute teaching today and didn't get to the board til now

No worries, just take the next slot after a loss.