Brewers (Ross) vs Cubs (Wesneski): 5/3/24, 1:20pm - Marquee

[s2obed]

2 minutes ago, Cubs420psd said:

Wesneski being taken out at 90 pitches is ridiculous.

 

Once Steele comes back he's out of the rotation anyway... Who cares if he has a high pitch count right now? 

 

 

Pretty sure he's not built up to 100+ pitches, injury risk.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 minute ago, Cubs420psd said:

Wesneski being taken out at 90 pitches is ridiculous.

 

Once Steele comes back he's out of the rotation anyway... Who cares if he has a high pitch count right now? 

 

 

I’m not too mad about Wesneski at 90, what was really stupid was pulling Assad and Taillon at 78 pitches against the Mets. That’s played into the bullpen being overused, it’s one of Counsells habits of pulling starters early and putting a lot of workload on the relievers. It worked with the Brewers because they have a fantastic bullpen but it’s gotten exposed real bad here because this bullpen is just very middle of the pack

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I know it's not the way Major League Baseball works in 2024, but at some point the Cubs need to start leaning on their starters to go deeper into games.  So what if a guy has to occasionally throw over 100 pitches?  This playing ultra-conservative with the starting pitchers is putting too much reliance on a really bad bullpen.  You could argue that maybe the starting pitchers wouldn't be as consistently good as they have been if they were throwing more pitches, but there is only one way to find out.

It's a matter of what you want to borrow from.  Counsell has loosened up the reins a little bit along with just getting better production, counting today the starters have averaged just over 6 IP/GS the last turn through the rotation. The problem they have now is twofold.  One is that they have a long stretch without off days, and by pushing to 100+ pitches, especially for guys who are not built up to do so(basically everyone for various reasons), you are going to see their next start suffer without a 5th day of rest, which can't exist.  The other is that the rotation injuries have depleted the quality of the relievers they can turn to.  If Wesneski and/or Brown weren't in the rotation, then they'd be the ones more likely to get leverage outings(and probably eating up more outs) than guys like Brewer, Palencia, or Little.

[soccer10k]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Neris and Almonte are down, and Keegan is almost certainly down given his usage.  So you need 2 innings between Leiter, Brewer, Alzolay, and maybe Palencia on a back to back(when he just gave up the lead).  No perfect option.

In that case I’d bring in Leiter against the top of their order, let him start the 9th assuming he doesn’t throw a ton of pitches, and then bring in somebody else if need be for the #5 or 6 hitter if Leiter’s pitch count gets up there.

[Dfan25]

Tough one to loss with Peralta going Sunday . Need a win tomorrow badly . 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, soccer10k said:

In that case I’d bring in Leiter against the top of their order, let him start the 9th assuming he doesn’t throw a ton of pitches, and then bring in somebody else if need be for the #5 or 6 hitter if Leiter’s pitch count gets up there.

Maybe, but Leiter’s pitch count getting up there implies some trouble and then you’re left with adbert’s first save opp in a while being immediately high leverage or whatever a Colton brewer is. Obviously the decision made didn’t work, though babip gets a good amount of blame. 
 

it’s the starting pitching injuries. Taillon has made 2 starts, brown isn’t fully a starter, neither is Wes, they knew about shota’s routine when they signed him (and they let him go 7 yesterday). If Assad is the guy you give the most leeway too, that’s an issue. And there isn’t anyone in the pen designed to go multiple innings. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

In that case I’d bring in Leiter against the top of their order, let him start the 9th assuming he doesn’t throw a ton of pitches, and then bring in somebody else if need be for the #5 or 6 hitter if Leiter’s pitch count gets up there.

That could work, but counting on Leiter, who has still pitched 3 of the last 5 days and hasn't thrown more than 21 pitches since August, to get 5 outs before running out of steam is a very narrow path.  And then you're likely bringing in one of those same options into a dirty inning, and potentially against a worse matchup than the right on right combo Counsell had set up.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Gotta score more than 1 run 

[squally1313]

Let’s revolutionize pitching. New rotation:

1. Steele/Wesneski
2. Shota/Assad
3. Brown/Hendricks
4. Taillon/Horton
    

[soccer10k]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Maybe, but Leiter’s pitch count getting up there implies some trouble and then you’re left with adbert’s first save opp in a while being immediately high leverage or whatever a Colton brewer is. Obviously the decision made didn’t work, though babip gets a good amount of blame. . 

Then I deal with that situation when it comes. If it was 7-8-9 coming up in the 8th, then I’m more okay with letting Alzolay come in. But I’m not bringing in the guy who has appeared in 14 games this year and blown the lead in 5 of them to face the top of the order in a 1 run game.

The other side of the “what if” coin works also. What if you bring Leiter in, he gets two outs and the Cubs score a couple runs in the 8th? Now you feel much better about bringing someone else in.

[soccer10k]

That being said, the offense only getting 1 run against Joe Ross is more to blame for the loss.

[JBears79]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Let’s revolutionize pitching. New rotation:

1. Steele/Wesneski
2. Shota/Assad
3. Brown/Hendricks
4. Taillon/Horton
    

I dont hate that idea at all.

[Illiterate Scholar]

1 minute ago, soccer10k said:

Then I deal with that situation when it comes. If it was 7-8-9 coming up in the 8th, then I’m more okay with letting Alzolay come in. But I’m not bringing in the guy who has appeared in 14 games this year and blown the lead in 5 of them to face the top of the order in a 1 run game.

The other side of the “what if” coin works also. What if you bring Leiter in, he gets two outs and the Cubs score a couple runs in the 8th? Now you feel much better about bringing someone else in.

Handedness/splits matter more than spot in the order. The first guy he faced is not a good major league hitter yet. 

[UMFan83]

I'm doing a special one for today

 

9/1/23 - Cubs lead the Reds 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th, lose 3-2

9/2/23 - Cubs lead the Reds 1-0 in the bottom of the 9th, lose 2-1

9/16/23 - Cubs lead the Diamondbacks 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th, 5-4 bottom 11th, and 6-5 bottom 13th, lose 7-6 in 13 innings

9/26/23 - Cubs lead the Braves 6-5 in the bottom of the 8th, lose 7-6

9/27/23 - Cubs lead the Braves 3-2 in the bottom of the 8th, 4-3 bottom 9, 5-4 bottom 10, lose 6-4 in 10 innings

3/28/24 - Cubs lead the Rangers 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th, lose 4-3 in 10 innings

4/8/24 - Cubs lead the Padres 8-7 in the bottom of the 8th, lose 9-8

4/16/24 - Cubs lead the Diamondbacks 11-10 in the bottom of the 9th, lose 12-11 in 10 innings

4/20/24 - Cubs lead the Marlins 2-1 in the top of the 9th, lose 3-2

5/2/24 - Cubs lead the Mets 6-5 in the bottom of the 11th, lose 7-6

5/3/24 - Cubs lead the Brewers 1-0 in the top of the 8th, lose 3-1

 

The Cubs have had the lead in the 8th inning or later in 41 of their last 61 games.  However they are just 30-31 in those 61 games.

Edited May 3, 2024 by UMFan83

[17 Seconds]

the losses could come fast until bellinger and seiya get back

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Then I deal with that situation when it comes. If it was 7-8-9 coming up in the 8th, then I’m more okay with letting Alzolay come in. But I’m not bringing in the guy who has appeared in 14 games this year and blown the lead in 5 of them to face the top of the order in a 1 run game.

The other side of the “what if” coin works also. What if you bring Leiter in, he gets two outs and the Cubs score a couple runs in the 8th? Now you feel much better about bringing someone else in.

Well I don’t think you can add cubs runs to the other side of the coin. We’d still be playing if they added a couple runs. Leiter has been good, but has been used disproportionately against lefties, which weren’t up in the 8th, and didn’t look great last time out either. 
 

it’s Deja vu to last year: there aren’t any good options. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

The Cubs have had the lead in the 8th inning or later in 41 of their last 59 games.  However they are just 30-31 in those 62 games

[Illiterate Scholar]

Good thing Neris will be available tomorrow, I say half serious?

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Counting is difficult when you are trying to satisfy your bloodlust for futility stats.

[Cubs420psd]

20 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Gotta score more than 1 run 

Well it doesn't help when you're best two hitters are made of glass.

[soccer10k]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Well I don’t think you can add cubs runs to the other side of the coin. We’d still be playing if they added a couple runs. Leiter has been good, but has been used disproportionately against lefties, which weren’t up in the 8th, and didn’t look great last time out either. 
 

it’s Deja vu to last year: there aren’t any good options. 

Personally, I’d rather use the guy with the 0.68 ERA and hope he can get 5 outs over the guy with the 5.54 ERA and 5 blown saves this year. If Leiter blows it, oh well. It happens. I’d just much rather lose with the better pitcher on the mound.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing MLB orgs that you can actually protect pitchers 

[UMFan83]

 

Doesn't sound like a guy thats ready to give up on Adbert anytime soon

[chibears55]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Let’s revolutionize pitching. New rotation:

1. Steele/Wesneski
2. Shota/Assad
3. Brown/Hendricks
4. Taillon/Horton
    

Not saying these guys,  but I have been waiting for a team to have a bullpen with guys who are somewhat failed starters but can go 3-4 innings, to be used somewhat like they do for the playoffs when they pull starters after twice through the order.

2 RH, 2 LH long guys 

 

 

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

Personally, I’d rather use the guy with the 0.68 ERA and hope he can get 5 outs over the guy with the 5.54 ERA and 5 blown saves this year. If Leiter blows it, oh well. It happens. I’d just much rather lose with the better pitcher on the mound.

And there’s no way we would have gotten a worse result going that way than the way we went. But we gave leiter the 8th on Wednesday with a one run lead and he gave up a single, then walked the go ahead run (a lefty), and had to get bailed out by almonte, which contributed to why almonte couldn’t pitch today. 
 

your most likely paths are making leiter throw more pitches than he’s thrown since August or being left with adbert and Colton to clean up. 
 

it’s all easier in hindsight. We spent all of September blaming Ross for this type of stuff, brought in the supposed best guy for the job, and are now watching him doing the same thing. Maybe NSBB has solved it. Or maybe it’s just something without an easy answer.