Marlins (Puk) vs Cubs (Taillon): 4/19/24, 1:20pm, Marquee

[chibears55]

Do we root for the Cardinals over the Brewers so the Cubs can take over 1st place tonight 😅

[UMFan83]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Do we root for the Cardinals over the Brewers so the Cubs can take over 1st place tonight 😅

Nah I don’t even care about the standings. I don’t think I’ve looked at them once this year. Win and everything will take care of itself

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Careful, word is going to travel over to the Brewer board

It’s all good, I’m not superstitious. And honestly, I don’t even really care. I’m happy to watch all of you see a fun team.

As I get older and do this for a living, I find myself less interested in cheering for specific teams. I openly mock the Twins on pretty much a daily basis. I hope they do well but it doesn’t impact me much if they suck.*

*I still legitimately get amped and become a crazed fan in October 

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Do we root for the Cardinals over the Brewers so the Cubs can take over 1st place tonight 😅

[chibears55]

Damn, just read that Happ has left hamstring tightness and is uncertain for rest of weekend. 

 

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I get that but you got to give him a chance to play, aside from strikeouts he’s played pretty well in his brief sample size. Morel at 3B and Wisdom at DH with Canario in RF would have made way more sense. Hopefully there aren’t too many balls hit his way. 

Normally would agree, but the Marlins hit a ton of balls on the ground so I think they wanted Madrigal at 3B, so Morel slides to DH.  Wisdom hits LHP well.  I'd assume Canario can hit LHP too but I'm not sure.

Vs LHP I think normally we might see Canario in RF and Wisdom at DH, if Cooper is playing 1B for Busch.

I'm glad I got my wish and someone replaced Mastro on this team.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Taking a slightly different angle on this than 1908....what do we think the relative value of a MLB PA is vs a AAA one? Like, if we agree that present day Canario is behind Happ, Belli, Seiya, and Tauchman on the MLB OF depth chart, and we want to maximize the possibility that he improves and jumps one of those guys, is it better to have him as a 5th outfielder getting 4-5 PAs a week with the Cubs vs getting daily starts in AAA? Mastro had gotten 13 PAs this year. Does someone like Luis Vazquez get more out of that role or the 66 PAs he's gotten so far this year in Iowa? I really don't know, but I think ideally when you have upper tier prospects that project to be MLB starters, you bring them up as starters, not back of the bench guys.  

If they want to get the best out of their OF they probably will platoon Tauchman and Canario depending on RHP vs LHP.  Canario doesn't have much of a future on this team unless it's coming off the bench and/or platooning.  He's an Iowa injury backup right now and that's before guys like Cassie, Davis, PCA, and Alcantara are ready for the MLB.

I think Canario and Morel have a similar hitting profile, but the Cubs OF is loaded with good MLB talent and quality prospects so the opportunity is limited.  IMO both Canario and Morel need an approach change if they're going to reach their potential so more regular PA's somewhere just isn't going to achieve that.  They're both dead-pull hitters and teams can beat them away, especially with offspeed/breaking stuff.

[spaincubsfan]

Just saw the highlights, great game and Taillon did what was expected against a cellar dweller. I hope he can give us good MOR performance and numbers as a # 3.

The offense scored early and often and Nico seems to be coming out of his slump. No reason we can't sweep this series.

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, spaincubsfan said:

Just saw the highlights, great game and Taillon did what was expected against a cellar dweller. I hope he can give us good MOR performance and numbers as a # 3.

The offense scored early and often and Nico seems to be coming out of his slump. No reason we can't sweep this series.

Except that it is baseball and even bad teams win 40% of the time. And if is very difficult to win a double header. And Luzardo is pitching today(I expect him to start pitching better). Sunday the Cubs have Hendricks pitching. Happ may be out now.  I would guess the percentage of 4 game sweeps is very low in baseball. Sure, they “should” win against the Marlins, but it shouldn’t be expected that they win every game. Hell, the white Sox beat the Braves earlier this year. All I am saying is to expect a sweep and be disappointed if they don’t get one is setting yourself up to be disappointed.

[thawv]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Except that it is baseball and even bad teams win 40% of the time. And if is very difficult to win a double header. And Luzardo is pitching today(I expect him to start pitching better). Sunday the Cubs have Hendricks pitching. Happ may be out now.  I would guess the percentage of 4 game sweeps is very low in baseball. Sure, they “should” win against the Marlins, but it shouldn’t be expected that they win every game. Hell, the white Sox beat the Braves earlier this year. All I am saying is to expect a sweep and be disappointed if they don’t get one is setting yourself up to be disappointed.

You are correct!  After the home team wins game one of a 4 game series, the odds of completing the sweep are about 6-1.  I would assume that the odds are a bit worse if there's a double header in the series? 

[spaincubsfan]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Except that it is baseball and even bad teams win 40% of the time. And if is very difficult to win a double header. And Luzardo is pitching today(I expect him to start pitching better). Sunday the Cubs have Hendricks pitching. Happ may be out now.  I would guess the percentage of 4 game sweeps is very low in baseball. Sure, they “should” win against the Marlins, but it shouldn’t be expected that they win every game. Hell, the white Sox beat the Braves earlier this year. All I am saying is to expect a sweep and be disappointed if they don’t get one is setting yourself up to be disappointed.

No disappointment from me, if they win fine and if not no biggie.

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Except that it is baseball and even bad teams win 40% of the time. And if is very difficult to win a double header. And Luzardo is pitching today(I expect him to start pitching better). Sunday the Cubs have Hendricks pitching. Happ may be out now.  I would guess the percentage of 4 game sweeps is very low in baseball. Sure, they “should” win against the Marlins, but it shouldn’t be expected that they win every game. Hell, the white Sox beat the Braves earlier this year. All I am saying is to expect a sweep and be disappointed if they don’t get one is setting yourself up to be disappointed.

The theory that it is unusually difficult to sweep a doubleheader is actually proven to be false. 
 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/19/15982598/doubleheader-sweep-probability-analysis

Quote

Using data from Retrosheet, I found that there have been 231 doubleheaders from 2008 to 2017. How many were sweeps? 120. That’s approximately 51.9 percent of all doubleheaders.

Theoretically without any other variables the odds of sweeping should be 50%, the data from 2008-2017 suggests that it’s actually slightly favored towards being more likely to sweep than to split. 

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

The theory that it is unusually difficult to sweep a doubleheader is actually proven to be false. 
 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/19/15982598/doubleheader-sweep-probability-analysis

Theoretically without any other variables the odds of sweeping should be 50%, the data from 2008-2017 suggests that it’s actually slightly favored towards being more likely to sweep than to split. 

Let’s hope the Cubs beat the odds in game 2. 

[UMFan83]

Normally you just deal with the ****** loss and are ready to watch the next day but I have absolutely no desire to watch game 2 after watching how game 1 ended.  Hope the bats come out big and score some runs. '

edit: dammit this was yesterdays game thread

Edited April 20, 2024 by UMFan83

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

The theory that it is unusually difficult to sweep a doubleheader is actually proven to be false. 
 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/7/19/15982598/doubleheader-sweep-probability-analysis

Theoretically without any other variables the odds of sweeping should be 50%, the data from 2008-2017 suggests that it’s actually slightly favored towards being more likely to sweep than to split. 

That said, still the most likely outcome for one team is to split the doubleheader. Even using your numbers, 49% of the time they split. That leaves 51% to either win both or lose both. So maybe a good team wins 35% of that remaining percentage? And then worse team wins 16% of the time. So basically the better team wins a double header 35% of the time as opposed to splitting 49% of the time.