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Chicago Bears offseason

jersey cubs fan

By jersey cubs fan,
in Other Sports

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jumbo Draft Eligible

jumbo

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

This logic only works of you somehow were able to have your choice of the entire field.  QB1 is still more successful than any other spot in the draft.

 

1st QB off board historical has the best chance to be best of their class.  Next best is QB2.  Then, and I know this is shocking, QB3. After 3 is basically falls apart.  But even in years where a QB picked 1.1 isn't the best QB in his class, he's almost always has a pretty high floor - especially relative to your average QB 2-4.

Not sure who posted it, but there was a tweet posted showing the success of #1 picks versus later picks. The nutshell version is that the #1 pick is WAY better in aggregate than lower picks. It was eye opening how dramatically better the #1 pick was. Obviously there's bias in the assessment, but that's the point. It's validating that the CHOICE of pick is the most successful and partly to your point that you only get that choice at #1.  

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CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)

There was an interesting article on Williams in the Athletic today. On one hand, I like that they are concerned with making sure that Williams is fairly compensated. On the other hand, they (the Williams team, father and advisors) sound like a nightmare to deal with. I definitely see this being very offputting by the McCasky family. 

https://theathletic.com/5301341/2024/02/28/caleb-williams-quarterback-nfl-draft-ownership/

Edited by CubinNY
raw Myrtle Beach Pelicans

raw

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
On 2/27/2024 at 6:35 PM, WrigleyField 22 said:

This logic only works of you somehow were able to have your choice of the entire field.  QB1 is still more successful than any other spot in the draft.

Exactly. If you don't take QB1, you aren't "predicting" the best QB by taking a guy later. You're just taking whoever you think is the best out of whoever is remaining on the board at that time. Obviously, there are scenarios where your prediction for the best QB is still on the board and you go get him, but you're also more likely to be wrong in this case if you're overthinking the majority, in a situation like the Bears are in. 

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

He may go to Atlanta, but I'm sure that's a fake quote

It’s a quote from a source. It could be anybody from Fields’ childhood friend to a Falcons employee. It’s probably real if the story is real. 

BigbadB First Round Pick

BigbadB

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Old Style said:

 

I'm not believing anything until it actually happens, but I wonder what Atlanta might be giving up if that ends up being true? Atlanta has a 2nd rounder and two 3rd rounders. One of those 3rd rounders becomes a 2nd rounder if Calvin Ridley extends with Jacksonville. You have to think the conditional pick won't be in play. That leaves Rd 2 pick 43 or Rd 3 pick 74. Atlanta might be trying to move that Rd 3 pick along with a conditional the next year. But, a deal this quickly makes me think Poles might have his sites set on that Rd 2 pick.

Brian707 Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Brian707

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea that guy is a fraud, but the betting line I think moved pretty strongly.  So there may be real smoke, but that guy sure doesn't have it.

Draft Kings right now:

ATL -425

Bears  +240

PIT +380

 

It was off the board Sun-Mon and Tuesday the Falcons were -220 so something is probably up, but this douche CJ Golson doesn't deserve the credit if it goes down this way. I don't think trades can be announced offically until mid March? Could be wrong

 

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

the reference that he cites in the replies is that he "reported" that judge would stay with the yankees

He got Judge and I believe the exact number as well.  That said agreed he's a fraud and trying to parlay that into clout.  I guess I'm a little curious if he happens to actually have one source in Aaron Judge's orbit or just had a fabulously lucky guess, but for our purposes it's pretty moot.

WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Draft Kings right now:

ATL -425

Bears  +240

PIT +380

 

It was off the board Sun-Mon and Tuesday the Falcons were -220 so something is probably up, but this douche CJ Golson doesn't deserve the credit if it goes down this way. I don't think trades can be announced offically until mid March? Could be wrong

 

Yea nothing can be official til league year opens, but they could break it whenever.  Last year's Carolina trade broke a week before league year opened.

Splendid Splinter First Round Pick

Splendid Splinter

Old-Timey Member
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Posted

Only way I see if the deal is done now is Falcons is giving up 2nd/3rd this year or the 2nd this year and a conditional 2nd/3rd next year that would move up 1 round if Falcons make the playoffs. Like Poles knows he can’t get a better deal.

Or maybe it’s a Fields + 9th for 8th + ??? type deal?

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Greg Gabriel is such a freaking weirdo.  He's on Twitter going on and on about Caleb Williams refusing to take any medical exams at the combine and how he's apparently the only player to ever refuse and what that says about his character or something.  But the article he linked to even says Caleb plans to submit to medical exams with teams he meets with individually during the pre-draft process.  He's just going on and on about it, bizarre.

BigSlick South Bend Cubs

BigSlick

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

If you make your money in the Information Economy in any way (writing, social media, streaming etc) you are incentivized to find out what the status quo opinion is and to release something provocative or inflammatory. If it looks like the consensus opinion is that "Caleb Williams is pretty good and seems to have no issues going to the Bears" you have to figure out a way to generate clicks, and outrage is one way to do it. 

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