Chicago Bears offseason

[raw]

Yeah higher cap, in theory, is bad for the Bears. They had the 3rd most cap, so they weren't hurting for space. This just gives every other team more spending power to either keep their own guys or to provide competition on the guys on the open market.

[raw]

3 hours ago, jumbo said:

No excuse to not sign Jaylon Johnson now, ha

Seriously though, would this affect the number that Johnson asks for? Thinking in % of cap type figures. Or does this affect the franchise tag number? Maybe there's a year lag....

Franchise tag number is 19.8M vs 18.6M. Fields 5th year option is over 25.6Mil now if picked up by his new team.

[scarey]

I just wanted to say I am loving this unified "ignore Kyle" stance we're taking here. Keep it going.

[17 Seconds]

so do the poles comments from this morning make it more likely that fields is gone? of course the fields fanatics are running with it and thinking fields is staying, but it sounded like the opposite to me

[Rex Buckingham]

I think it's pretty clear he's gone... no need to mention trading him if you're intending to keep him

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

so do the poles comments from this morning make it more likely that fields is gone? of course the fields fanatics are running with it and thinking fields is staying, but it sounded like the opposite to me

What were the comments? 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

so do the poles comments from this morning make it more likely that fields is gone? of course the fields fanatics are running with it and thinking fields is staying, but it sounded like the opposite to me

sounded to me like fields is gone.  But both sides are so weird about this whole thing that they're going to believe what they want to believe.

[raw]

Poles is just speaking in hypotheticals. Poles has mentioned that he'd like to trade Fields (if he's going to trade Fields) before free agency starts because he doesn't want to string him along. He also mentioned that he has absolutely 0 fear that Caleb would want to come to Chicago. 

The biggest tell to me of the offseason so far has been DJ talking at the Superbowl and Justin on the St. Brown podcast. DJ supported his guy Fields, but the tone was different. He seemed more open to the fact that he was leaving. And on the podcast, Justin said something about how he likes to watch film right now and be in the playbook. While he didn't say he doesn't actually have a playbook, he basically said he doesn't want to watch film if he doesn't know what offense he's going to be running.

[Brian707]

Yeah I took these comments as vague as they are to mean Fields is gone. It makes so little sense to keep Fields. 

1. You have 3 years of games, and he isn't going to ever be an elite QB

2. The rookie deal is up after this season, with Willams or whomever it resets.

3. If Poles passes on a QB like Williams and he turns into an elite QB, Poles will be out of work in short order. If Willams busts the downside isn't as bad for his career. 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

sounded to me like fields is gone.  But both sides are so weird about this whole thing that they're going to believe what they want to believe.

Part of me wants to quibble with the idea that there's a "both sides" here, but you're right there is.  I like Caleb Williams. I want to draft Caleb Williams. But Williams is starting to get the same cult-like love energy that Fields got.  At least this time it's directed at a much better prospect.

[BigSlick]

It's unavoidable - Williams would get that kind of cult-like love for any QB prospect a team drafting a QB would get - hell, I watched Panthers fans desperately try to defend Bryce Young's potential all year long. People are gonna hold out hope for their guy. 

It's all the worse for Bears fans because we have literally not one had a guy you can say, with complete confidence, is an elite QB. And until we get one of those guys, our brains will remain broken. 

[UMFan83]

 

Gabriel has been really wrong on horsefeathers lately, hopefully his streak continues because that just sounds dumb as hell. 

[WrigleyField 22]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Gabriel has been really wrong on horsefeathers lately, hopefully his streak continues because that just sounds dumb as hell. 

Hes hedging and gonna back out of his pension deal with Sulley.

[jersey cubs fan]

That first sentence is meaningless.
 

I could absolutely see them trying to get the best of both worlds here, trading down for a haul and back up for “their guy” to wind up with a top WR and QB while adding a 2nd and some other stuff. But I don’t see that working. 

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Gabriel has been really wrong on horsefeathers lately, hopefully his streak continues because that just sounds dumb as hell. 

that is way, way fucked up

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Gabriel has been really wrong on horsefeathers lately, hopefully his streak continues because that just sounds dumb as hell. 

Here's the thing:

 

Of the last 20 QBs drafted first in their class, how many are now or were the actual top QB of their class in the NFL? Not that many compared to how many you would expect. The top 10 QBs this year was littered with guys taken after the 1st round even.  So if they have conviction that more than 1 of these guys could reach an All-Pro ceiling then trading back and adding a bevy of picks to build up the roster is pretty enticing. 

 

So much is gonna change over the next couple months. Rumors are gonna be flying everywhere. i'm really not gonna pay attention or concern myself with it until a move is actually made.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

32 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

 

Gabriel has been really wrong on horsefeathers lately, hopefully his streak continues because that just sounds dumb as hell. 

I think trading down and taking a different QB is an underrated option, tbh.  I like Williams, but as others have said, the best qb prospect out of a draft isn't *that* easy to predict 

[BigSlick]

This is the only time I'll say this type of thing - I don't trust the Bears to find the diamond in the rough QB. I'd rather they just settle on the consensus best QB in the draft.

 

They've not shown the ability to get *that* right in history, but they SURE as hell haven't shown the ability to find a steal QB prospect. Just get the guy everyone is pretty sure is really good. 

 

I absolutely love #assets but at a certain point its outsmarting yourself

Edited February 27, 2024 by BigSlick

[UMFan83]

23 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Here's the thing:

 

Of the last 20 QBs drafted first in their class, how many are now or were the actual top QB of their class in the NFL? Not that many compared to how many you would expect. The top 10 QBs this year was littered with guys taken after the 1st round even.  So if they have conviction that more than 1 of these guys could reach an All-Pro ceiling then trading back and adding a bevy of picks to build up the roster is pretty enticing. 

 

So much is gonna change over the next couple months. Rumors are gonna be flying everywhere. i'm really not gonna pay attention or concern myself with it until a move is actually made.

Depends on how much of the smoke about Caleb you believe in.  Many "evaluators" put Caleb in a rare class of QB prospect that you don't see many years.  I can see a situation where you aren't in love with Young so you trade down for Stroud or another QB.  But if Caleb is really seen as a once every 5 years prospect, I question the decision to trade down to take anyone else.  I don't know of any talent evaluators who have proven to be good enough at projecting QBs that having strong conviction on one who isnt Caleb is super meaningful.  Or at least meaningful enough to ignore consensus to pick someone else.

[CubinNY]

If they do it and it works Poles is a genius. If not, he’s out of job in a few years. To date, he’s not demonstrated any level of genius with his picks. 

Edited February 27, 2024 by CubinNY

[Tim]

25 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If they do it and it works Poles is a genius. If not, he’s out of job in a few years. To date, he’s not demonstrated any level of genius with his picks. 

I wouldn't say he's shown genius. But his drafts have been pretty solid so far.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Depends on how much of the smoke about Caleb you believe in.  Many "evaluators" put Caleb in a rare class of QB prospect that you don't see many years.  I can see a situation where you aren't in love with Young so you trade down for Stroud or another QB.  But if Caleb is really seen as a once every 5 years prospect, I question the decision to trade down to take anyone else.  I don't know of any talent evaluators who have proven to be good enough at projecting QBs that having strong conviction on one who isnt Caleb is super meaningful.  Or at least meaningful enough to ignore consensus to pick someone else.

The last 2 guys to get that label are probably Lawrence and Luck. Both top 10 QBs but never quite looked like they would/will lead a championship team. The evaluators are constantly off. 

 

I will say I pretty much carry this belief at every position. Everybody wanted to go out there and land the next Jefferson or Chase and here come the Rams waltzing in and grabbing a 100/1500 guy in the fifth round (a few yrs after they did it the first time with Kupp) after like 15 receivers were off the board. 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Here's the thing:

 

Of the last 20 QBs drafted first in their class, how many are now or were the actual top QB of their class in the NFL? Not that many compared to how many you would expect. The top 10 QBs this year was littered with guys taken after the 1st round even.  So if they have conviction that more than 1 of these guys could reach an All-Pro ceiling then trading back and adding a bevy of picks to build up the roster is pretty enticing. 

 

So much is gonna change over the next couple months. Rumors are gonna be flying everywhere. i'm really not gonna pay attention or concern myself with it until a move is actually made.

This logic only works of you somehow were able to have your choice of the entire field.  QB1 is still more successful than any other spot in the draft.

 

1st QB off board historical has the best chance to be best of their class.  Next best is QB2.  Then, and I know this is shocking, QB3. After 3 is basically falls apart.  But even in years where a QB picked 1.1 isn't the best QB in his class, he's almost always has a pretty high floor - especially relative to your average QB 2-4.

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, BigSlick said:

This is the only time I'll say this type of thing - I don't trust the Bears to find the diamond in the rough QB. I'd rather they just settle on the consensus best QB in the draft.

This is where I stand. If Poles trades the #1, takes a QB in the 1st, and Williams goes on to be a perennial Pro Bowler while the Bears' guy is out of the league in five years, it would be an even bigger fuckup than the Rick Mirer trade, and it would be a more likely scenario than Williams being out of the league in five years with the Bears' guy turning into a regular at the Pro Bowl.

It's such a huge risk and I just don't trust the Bears to pull it off.

[BigSlick]

3 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Here's the thing:

 

Of the last 20 QBs drafted first in their class, how many are now or were the actual top QB of their class in the NFL? Not that many compared to how many you would expect. The top 10 QBs this year was littered with guys taken after the 1st round even.  So if they have conviction that more than 1 of these guys could reach an All-Pro ceiling then trading back and adding a bevy of picks to build up the roster is pretty enticing. 

 

So much is gonna change over the next couple months. Rumors are gonna be flying everywhere. i'm really not gonna pay attention or concern myself with it until a move is actually made.

This is actually very easily accounted for: 

 

Last 20 QBs drafted first

Bryce Young (lol)

Kenny Pickett

Trevor Lawrence

Joe Burrow

Kyler Murray

Baker Mayfield

Mitchell Trubisky (woof)

Jared Goff

Jameis Winston (the best in a bad class)

Blake Bortles 🤷‍♂️

EJ Manuel (I legitimately have no idea who this is)

Andrew Luck

Cam Newton

Sam Bradford   🤷‍♂️ 

Matthew Stafford

Matt Ryan (tough competition with Joe Flacco)

JaMarcus Russell (horrible but also there isn't an NFL quality QB in this draft)

Vince Young

Alex Smith (Aaron Rodgers definitely bests Smith here, but Smith isn't a bad consolation prize)

Eli Manning  🤷‍♂️  

 

Ok - going through the list, I'd say in roughly 10 of these drafts the correct QB was taken first. (There's some argument to be made in some years, like, in 2004, between Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers, who do I want? Rivers is the best overall passer but am I upset to end up with Manning and 2 Super Bowls? I dunno) ((There are also years where there's no good option, like 2010 - Bradford vs. Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Mike Kafka. Woof.)) 

I put this out there to say that it's not as much of a crapshoot as it may seem - or at the very least, it's a weighted crapshoot. You give yourself decidedly better odds with the 1st overall. 

 

Edited February 28, 2024 by BigSlick