The Bears are on the clock; Packers Week

[jersey cubs fan]

Hey Justin, you see that glow flashing in the corner of your eye? That’s your career dissipation light. It just went into high gear.

It seems dumb to consider, but Fields future may be determined by this game. If he lights up the Packers and knocks them out of the playoffs, you know it will be hard to convince the McCaskey’s to move on. They love the kid. And what they want above all else is stability. I don’t think Poles thinks that way, but you never know. The new market inefficiency may no longer be winning while a QB is on his rookie contract, but may be signing a less than elite QB to less than elite money, leaving room to build around him that other teams cannot afford. 

 

Anyway, the Bears are 3 point underdogs but the Packers are nothing special and this game is up for grabs. 

Edited January 1, 2024 by jersey cubs fan

[raw]

Last year, an up-and-coming NFC North team started off the season 1-5, before putting together a strong back half of the season. There was a lot of positivity surrounding this team. They had a lot of young talent. They made a trade that put them in a sweet spot with multiple 1st round picks including a pick that would wind up being top 6 from the trade. The young upstart team was eliminated from the playoffs despite a win in Week 17, but had unfinished business for the season. They wanted to beat their division rival and perennial bully and keep them out of the playoffs. And they had to do it on their bully's home turf.

That team won, stuck with their QB many thought was not good enough and didn't make a move to get one of the top QBs in the draft. They went on to load up the team on draft picks and the team won the division the next year in almost easy fashion. 

[BigSlick]

This is could be a huge game for Eberflus and Fields. But we have no idea what goes on in the heads of Ryan Poles and Kevin Warren. They may have already made their mind up of what direction they want to go. For all we know, everyone's kept their jobs and they're bringing the whole gang together. For all we know, they could beat the Packers on their home turf by 50 and everyone is fired and Fields is sent packing for a 3rd round picks. 

I suspect Eberflus has coached the team well enough down the stretch to keep his job. That's kind of a shame, but I don't hate the guy - at least as a coordinator. I just think the Bears can do a whole lot better and I would prefer an offensive minded head coach (and also a coach who doesn't fumble the in-game decision making quite like he does). If he beats the Packers at home and ends the season like, 5-1 down the stretch, I think it's very hard for Poles and co to justify firing him. So it goes. 

One thing we know for sure about Fields: Bears fans as a whole want him to stay. In his last home game of the season, they chanted "We Want Fields" as the clock ticked down on the W. Polls in general show that Bear fans want him back by a roughly 75-25% clip. Does that sway Warren and Poles? I have no idea. I hope not. Not because I'm anti-Fields or anything but because I don't want my football guys being swayed by the meatballs, ever. 

I'm still strongly on the side of trading Fields and drafting Caleb Williams with the 1st overall.... but if he caps off his season with another great game (and that Falcons game may be his best overall games in his career), I'm not gonna be overly unhappy if they give Fields the keys and load up on draft picks. It's probably not the wisest overall move (in terms of evaluating Fields's ceiling of play, the effect on the salary cap, the potential of Williams/Maye), but it's one I would understand. 

Go beat the horsefeathers Packers

[Tryptamine]

I just want to see Bears eliminate the Packers from the playoffs, I'm not concerned with the rest.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, username said:

For better or worse, I don't think I've ever seen an organization more obsessed with beating their rivals than the Bears are towards the Packers.  

Yeah my dad would be fine going 2-15 with the wins against the Packers

[Wilson A2000]

1 hour ago, username said:

For better or worse, I don't think I've ever seen an organization more obsessed with beating their rivals than the Bears are towards the Packers.  

Eberflus called this week’s game a “normal game”

[UK]

9 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Eberflus called this week’s game a “normal game”

I believe that was in terms of not sitting starters rather than in terms of playing GB compared to anyone else.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*checkmark in the "X games left are what will really tell the story for Fields" box*

This game will definitely have an outsized effect on how the fandom feels about him going into the offseason.  If they win this game and he doesn't completely poop the bed, the fanbase goes full Tebow.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love needs 157 yards to get to 4000 for the season. It's unlikely to hold him under that but I would enjoy it.

[Wilson A2000]

43 minutes ago, UK said:

I believe that was in terms of not sitting starters rather than in terms of playing GB compared to anyone else.

Maybe that was part of it, but at the very least Eberflus hasn’t put any extra weight behind beating the Packers this week

[BigSlick]

I don't think Justin Fields is a terrible quarterback and I've long maintained that it is entirely appropriate to withhold judgment on what to do in the draft until after the entire season is over. So yes, the Green Bay game matters, and it obviously has outsized importance because it's the Packers and its a whole thing. 

In most QB stats Fields is in the ~20-something range of starters. That doesn't look spectacular. I think he's gotten better after he came back from injury, but he's still been inconsistent. I think, on the whole, factoring in his legs and his field awareness and his propensity for insane plays nobody else in the league can make, he's currently about an average NFL starting QB (with the potential to be better than that, but also perhaps a ceiling that is below 'elite'). Is that enough? I dunno. If I was a cold-blooded NFL executive who didn't want to factor in what it would do for the locker room, what the salary cap situation looks like, the coaches, etc. etc. - probably not. 

As a fan, I'm a reactive moron who swings up and down based on the irrationalism of football wins and losses. I was stoked to watch the Falcons game. If he beats the Packers resoundingly I'm sure I'll be a gigantic homer and feel significantly more reticent to trade him. It is what it is. 

[Wilson A2000]

If Eberflus stays, he has to be the DC next year. That’s a good chunk of his value to the team. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

29 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I don't think Justin Fields is a terrible quarterback and I've long maintained that it is entirely appropriate to withhold judgment on what to do in the draft until after the entire season is over. So yes, the Green Bay game matters, and it obviously has outsized importance because it's the Packers and its a whole thing. 

In most QB stats Fields is in the ~20-something range of starters. That doesn't look spectacular. I think he's gotten better after he came back from injury, but he's still been inconsistent. I think, on the whole, factoring in his legs and his field awareness and his propensity for insane plays nobody else in the league can make, he's currently about an average NFL starting QB (with the potential to be better than that, but also perhaps a ceiling that is below 'elite'). Is that enough? I dunno. If I was a cold-blooded NFL executive who didn't want to factor in what it would do for the locker room, what the salary cap situation looks like, the coaches, etc. etc. - probably not. 

As a fan, I'm a reactive moron who swings up and down based on the irrationalism of football wins and losses. I was stoked to watch the Falcons game. If he beats the Packers resoundingly I'm sure I'll be a gigantic homer and feel significantly more reticent to trade him. It is what it is. 

I've never seen anyone talk about Fields' field awareness as a positive.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just as a weekly reminder:

Justin Fields 28th out of 31 qualified starters in Success% passing, between Kenny Pickett and Will Levis.

Justin Fields is 26th out of 33 qualified starters in ANY/A, tied with Desmond Ritter and again just below Kenny Pickett.

He is 23rd out of 31 in QBR, which includes rushing, just slightly ahead of Kenny PIckett and Sam Howell.

The narrative is kind of picking up steam that Fields is an average QB but maybe we have a tough choice between that and aiming for more. He's not an average QB. He's a bad QB.  

[BigSlick]

12 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I've never seen anyone talk about Fields' field awareness as a positive.

Oh I wasn't very clear there - I do think its a negative. I was trying to list things that don't get factored well into his stats, but I edited it and it just kinda looks out of place. 

I look at all those stats you list and I still think he's roughly an average QB. Maybe that makes me an idiot! I don't care! 

[Outshined_One]

One thing that will merit attention this offseason is Fields' contract.  His 2024 cap hit is apparently in the neighborhood of $6m.  Putting that in perspective using 2023 numbers, that would put him squarely in between Taylor Heinicke (#29) and Mitch Trubisky (#30) in terms of QB salary, and just a shade ahead of guys like Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor.

If we assume the Bears are going QB in the first round of the draft, I'm unsure how comfortable they would be just letting that QB be anointed the opening day starter.  CJ Stroud has been phenomenal this year, but Stroud undeniably is an outlier.  So, considering the rest of the team seems like it is on the cusp of being pretty darn good, would the Bears bring back Fields in that situation considering (a) his cap hit would be relatively minimal; (b) how unlikely it is that the Bears would find a reasonably priced free agent QB who could outperform Fields' likely production; and (c) the possibility that there isn't much of a trade market for Fields?

I'm mostly convinced that Fields isn't the long term answer for this team, but I also think it would be sincerely unreasonable to expect someone like Williams or Maye to lead this team to 10+ wins next season.  Bringing Fields back might be an acceptable option in the situation where they take a QB at 1.1.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, BigSlick said:

 

In most QB stats Fields is in the ~20-something range of starters. That doesn't look spectacular.

That's an understatement. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm unsure how comfortable they would be just letting that QB be anointed the opening day starter.

I think a lot of the conservative action around not starting high pick QBs early is worry they'll get themselves killed.  Williams/Maye are pretty polished, plus the unique circumstances of the Bears' roster would have this as one of the best rookie QB supporting casts of all time.

I'm very understanding of giving rookies ~6 weeks behind a vet before handing them the keys, but I don't think it'll be necessary here.

[raw]

15 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

One thing that will merit attention this offseason is Fields' contract.  His 2024 cap hit is apparently in the neighborhood of $6m.  Putting that in perspective using 2023 numbers, that would put him squarely in between Taylor Heinicke (#29) and Mitch Trubisky (#30) in terms of QB salary, and just a shade ahead of guys like Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor.

If we assume the Bears are going QB in the first round of the draft, I'm unsure how comfortable they would be just letting that QB be anointed the opening day starter.  CJ Stroud has been phenomenal this year, but Stroud undeniably is an outlier.  So, considering the rest of the team seems like it is on the cusp of being pretty darn good, would the Bears bring back Fields in that situation considering (a) his cap hit would be relatively minimal; (b) how unlikely it is that the Bears would find a reasonably priced free agent QB who could outperform Fields' likely production; and (c) the possibility that there isn't much of a trade market for Fields?

I'm mostly convinced that Fields isn't the long term answer for this team, but I also think it would be sincerely unreasonable to expect someone like Williams or Maye to lead this team to 10+ wins next season.  Bringing Fields back might be an acceptable option in the situation where they take a QB at 1.1.

I don't think you can have Fields and a #1 pick on a team together. Just a huge distraction and a locker room issue.

And I don't think you can discount Bagent in this situation. Bagent is very likely nothing, but he's not nothing yet. If you have to start him a bit, he's shown he won't embarrass the team. 

And I don't understand the sentiment that Fields will lead this team to 10 wins, when he's not been a top 20 QB in the league yet, but a rookie cannot who likely will come in with pretty solid base level passing ability? I mean, I agree with that sentiment, LOL based on continuity and so forth, but drafting a QB or keeping Fields is 100% about beyond 2024, not about 2024 itself. That's why the decision is so tough. Do you build on a couple breakdowns away from a 7-game win streak or do you take a potential step back to go to the level you want to ultimately be at. You can't give up a chance for an elite level QB for the hope of competing in 2024. Fields "probably" gives you a better chance to compete in 2024, but he doesn't "definitely" give you a better chance.

[BigSlick]

Yeah I'm really not too worried about what a rookie can do here - there will be more offensive help coming and the talent on offense is coming together. It'll be one of the better places for a rookie to start, and significantly better than what CJ Stroud went into. 

 

[gflore34]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I think a lot of the conservative action around not starting high pick QBs early is worry they'll get themselves killed.  Williams/Maye are pretty polished, plus the unique circumstances of the Bears' roster would have this as one of the best rookie QB supporting casts of all time.

I'm very understanding of giving rookies ~6 weeks behind a vet before handing them the keys, but I don't think it'll be necessary here.

Exactly, Williams or Maye is not walking into Carolina type situation, either one of them is going to have Kmet, Moore and Odunze/Nabers/Coleman as targets behind a decent/improving line with a good stable of running backs.

[raw]

3 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Yeah I'm really not too worried about what a rookie can do here - there will be more offensive help coming and the talent on offense is coming together. It'll be one of the better places for a rookie to start, and significantly better than what CJ Stroud went into. 

 

I don't think we should get to the place where we assume a good situation (which the Bears should be) is the end-all, be-all though. Some QBs just can't play or just can't play well enough right away. Fields came to a team that made the playoffs with Trubisky. Kenny Pickett went to a solid Steelers team. Guys like Lamar, Mahomes and Hurts went to great situations, but sat for most of their rookie years. Situations matter, but it won't make a guy significantly better than he actually is.

[SpongeWorthy]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Just as a weekly reminder:

Justin Fields 28th out of 31 qualified starters in Success% passing, between Kenny Pickett and Will Levis.

Justin Fields is 26th out of 33 qualified starters in ANY/A, tied with Desmond Ritter and again just below Kenny Pickett.

He is 23rd out of 31 in QBR, which includes rushing, just slightly ahead of Kenny PIckett and Sam Howell.

The narrative is kind of picking up steam that Fields is an average QB but maybe we have a tough choice between that and aiming for more. He's not an average QB. He's a bad QB.  

yet fields would fetch quite a bit more than any of those guys in a trade (aside maybe levis who you can still dream on a bit as a rookie)

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, SpongeWorthy said:

yet fields would fetch quite a bit more than any of those guys in a trade (aside maybe levis who you can still dream on a bit as a rookie)

 

I was reading a take this morning that JF could fetch a 1st rd pick in a trade, I believe it was a quote from an AFC GM.

 

 

#suckstosuckatqb1

[scarey]

There seems to be a sentiment that you either fall into two camps:

1. I believe in Justin Fields

2. I think Williams/Maye will be better for the team long term

I'd like to enter the third option:

3. I don't want to miss out on MHJs HOF career in Chicago for a rookie QB that the Bears probably ruin anyway

[Hairyducked Idiot]

32 minutes ago, scarey said:

There seems to be a sentiment that you either fall into two camps:

1. I believe in Justin Fields

2. I think Williams/Maye will be better for the team long term

I'd like to enter the third option:

3. I don't want to miss out on MHJs HOF career in Chicago for a rookie QB that the Bears probably ruin anyway

4) I understand the incredible value that trading the no. 1 pick could bring and am happy to explore it, but I don't know where our QB is going to come from if we do that