Glasnow To Dodgers, Pending Extension

[JHBulls]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

On the bright side, whatever pitcher we do sign now might have a chance to actually throw 70 IP.

 

[Stratos]

If they want Bellinger it sounds like that will drag out anyways.  We all just need to relax.  The offseason is a 3-4 month long poker game.  Fans were panicking when the big SS guys were flying off the board last year then Jed nabbed Swanson on a solid deal, and were panicking when all the good SP's were flying off the board right before the lockout the year before and we nabbed Stroman on a good deal at the last minute.  Jed goes down to the wire at the trade deadline too.

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Lay it out for me. What’s the point you’re trying to make? I love you Bertz…truly one of the most insightful posters on this board. But is your point that we should be considering 2017, damn near two whole presidential terms ago and a year when he was sent down for control issues, as relevant to the discussion? 

Just seems weird to post a point while actively pointing out why it's a dumb point?

Glasnow's not Livan Hernandez, he's not going to throw 230 innings, but you're dinging him for a global pandemic and coming back quickly from Tommy John surgery.  I swear if he had dragged his feet and not pitched at all in '22 people would be way less worried about him.  But they see those 6.2 innings and lose their horsefeathering minds.

Justin Steele topped 170 innings last year after never crossing 120 in a season prior.  Michael Lorenzen threw 150 innings after being a reliever for nearly a decade.  Guy's mid career can add plenty of innings, this isn't some 20 year old following the Verducci 30 inning rule. 

If Glasnow had shoulder issues (or something shoulder-adjacent like Alzolay's recurring lat issues) there'd be reason to worry about him.  But he's had three injuries in his career, two of them tied to his now surgically repaired elbow and one of them being non-arm related with his oblique.  Pretending he's like Jacob deGrom or Rich Harden doesn't hold up to frankly any scrutiny.

[Cuzi]

3 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm trying to tell myself that there's something out there that I'm not seeing. That the reason for the silence on the Cubs end is because there's a really fun move that we don't know about. That there's a thing out there that's going to lynch pin all of this and we'll end up going "oh wow!". 

But then there's another voice that's pretty defeated laughing at that voice. And that one's starting to win.

What you are missing is that every single one of the Cubs prospects is going to be a successful MLB player and that the Cubs have a spot to give them on the MLB roster. Every. Single. One.

[JD94]

47 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If they want Bellinger it sounds like that will drag out anyways.  We all just need to relax.  The offseason is a 3-4 month long poker game.  Fans were panicking when the big SS guys were flying off the board last year then Jed nabbed Swanson on a solid deal, and were panicking when all the good SP's were flying off the board right before the lockout the year before and we nabbed Stroman on a good deal at the last minute.  Jed goes down to the wire at the trade deadline too.

So best case scenario we grab Bellinger and Hoskins and trade for Bieber, we’re what… a ~84 win team? Riveting offseason. Truly. Zzzzzzzz

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So I'll say this: I actually think Jed Hoyer is a good GM. I think he's got a good vision in his head, and I think he's really good at identifying  margins-players. I think he can communicate his vision to others well. I think he's good at determining a market, and a value, and I think he's highly disciplined in that regards. My fear is that this is all Jed is, however, and that the thing he's missing is the thing Epstein had: he had the ability to get irrational about a player. Maybe to a fault (why I think Jed and Theo were a good pairing to begin with). If that's the case, then I still think Hoyer's a good GM...just maybe not for a large market team like the Cubs. There seems to be a hesitancy to go past that value in both trade and free agency, however. 

We'll see. I hope this is wrong. There's still time in 2023/24's offseason to change my perception of him.

I don't remember Theo being irrational.  The Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Cubs fans cried, and Theo signed zero-tool Daniel Descalso to a 2-year deal with a buyout for the 3rd year.  This is what they do.

IMO if most Cubs fans were the GM they would panic after every big signing and Boras would fleece them every winter.  Then they'd take their salary as GM and lose it all in the stock market lol.

Being a GM isn't much different than playing the stock market.  Buying high, selling low, and making decisions based on emotion is a recipe for disaster.  The Mets often buy high and they usually suck.  The Braves didn't build their team in FA, they let Freeman and Swanson walk and used the money to extend all their good young players, and almost all their best players are still in their prime years.

Craig Counsell is a smart dude and if he's sold on Jed's vision then i'll give Jed runway.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, JD94 said:

So best case scenario we grab Bellinger and Hoskins and trade for Bieber, we’re what… a ~84 win team? Riveting offseason. Truly. Zzzzzzzz

If we are signing Bellinger and a 1B, or trading for Alonso, then I would hope that PCA would be involved in a deal for a better, more controlled, pitcher than Bieber. Maybe swing back around to the Blue Jays for a guy like Addison Barger who is just rotting away on the 40 man roster right now because they dont have a spot for him.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Cuzi

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

If we are signing Bellinger and a 1B, or trading for Alonso, then I would hope that PCA would be involved in a deal for a better, more controlle, pitcher than Bieber.

Didn’t even think about the specifics when I rattled off those names. You’re right… PCA would be blocked in that scenario. I was just meaning there’s just not much we can do at this point to move the needle. We don’t appear to be in on Yamamoto. There’s no real impact bats available via trade or free agency outside of Bellinger I guess. 

[Layoutman]

Jed Hoyer is not trading PCA - Period.  He is too cheap has too much defense up the middle and too much team control. The ultimate Hoyer prospect put it to bed already. 

[Stratos]

5 minutes ago, JD94 said:

So best case scenario we grab Bellinger and Hoskins and trade for Bieber, we’re what… a ~84 win team? Riveting offseason. Truly. Zzzzzzzz

This offseason I expected them to try to replace Bellinger's production by grabbing a corner bat (even if it's Bellinger), landing a SP to replace Stroman, and improving the pen.  It's all still on the board.

If they want a 95 win team this season they likely have spend well over the CBT which I don't expect them to do.  In recent seasons they seem to be trying to be good enough to squeeze into the playoffs until the kids are ready, and the vast majority of their best prospects will be in AAA or AA this year and knocking on the door while providing lots of depth.  The Cubs are pretty close.

Cubs had a good run differential last year, enough for 90 wins of pythag W/L.  If they were able to close out leads for more than half the season they would have easily made the playoffs (AZ had 1 more win than the Cubs).  Fixing the pen and signing a couple good players isn't that hard.  They just nabbed the best manager in baseball.  The team is in good shape.

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

Jed Hoyer is not trading PCA - Period.  He is too cheap has too much defense up the middle and too much team control.

Centerfield defense only goes so far though.  While I do think it is unlikely PCA gets traded, he is going to have to hit and hasn't proven yet that he will be able to do that at the Major League level.  If the front office has any doubt in PCA's future offensive ability, and the right opportunity comes along to obtain another controllable player, a trade shouldn't be completely off the table.

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

This offseason I expected them to try to replace Bellinger's production by grabbing a corner bat (even if it's Bellinger), landing a SP to replace Stroman, and improving the pen.  It's all still on the board.

I am confident the Cubs will address the pitching staff and almost certainly go into next season in much better bullpen shape than they have the past few seasons.

Replacing Bellinger's production is going to be much easier said than done though.  Even Bellinger himself is unlikely to approach his 2023 numbers.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, username said:

Being the only shopper at the grocery store when the store is closing soon, and grabbing the one remaining loaf of bread on the back of the shelf that no one else wanted isn't really a good way to feed your family.  

Cubs way....

Bargain shopping before the clock strikes midnight 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Pepiot and DeLuca are pretty solid players, Cubs trade would probably be Wicks and Canario to equal that I'd say. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, username said:

Being the only shopper at the grocery store when the store is closing soon, and grabbing the one remaining loaf of bread on the back of the shelf that no one else wanted isn't really a good way to feed your family.  

What if some of the best loaves of bread go on sale 30 minutes before the store closes because the store manager is kind of an arse and jacks up the price for the rest of the day?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Just seems weird to post a point while actively pointing out why it's a dumb point?

Glasnow's not Livan Hernandez, he's not going to throw 230 innings, but you're dinging him for a global pandemic and coming back quickly from Tommy John surgery.  I swear if he had dragged his feet and not pitched at all in '22 people would be way less worried about him.  But they see those 6.2 innings and lose their horsefeathering minds.

Justin Steele topped 170 innings last year after never crossing 120 in a season prior.  Michael Lorenzen threw 150 innings after being a reliever for nearly a decade.  Guy's mid career can add plenty of innings, this isn't some 20 year old following the Verducci 30 inning rule. 

If Glasnow had shoulder issues (or something shoulder-adjacent like Alzolay's recurring lat issues) there'd be reason to worry about him.  But he's had three injuries in his career, two of them tied to his now surgically repaired elbow and one of them being non-arm related with his oblique.  Pretending he's like Jacob deGrom or Rich Harden doesn't hold up to frankly any scrutiny.

deGrom, who also endured a global pandemic and an elbow injury, has pitched ~200 more innings than Glasnow over the past six years.

[NorthsideAvenger]

At least Hoskins can be the Cubs if they want,

I want to believe Jed and company is talking to the Guardians about any combination of Naylor/Bieber/Clase and are currently running through names. 

It does bother me that the Chicago Cubs are afraid to act like a big market team. Your biggest off-season acquistion cannot be the manager. 

 

 

[ToolDRT]

I like how the Dodgers are getting 4mil in the deal as well. The first two years of Ohtani paid for by the rays. 

[I owned a Suzuki]

5 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Pepiot and DeLuca are pretty solid players, Cubs trade would probably be Wicks and Canario to equal that I'd say. 

the thing that I find the most irritating about the Dodgers is they have a top 10ish system, that allows them to make these type of deals.  Its not like they have not traded top 10 talent before, its not like they have drafted high, its not like they haven't had LT penalties.  And still a quality system that is regularly productive in one way or another.

[BigbadB]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

What if some of the best loaves of bread go on sale 30 minutes before the store closes because the store manager is kind of an arse and jacks up the price for the rest of the day?

That would be a horrible business model catering more to the late night need one item shopper and sticking it to the families with full shopping carts.

With that said, I doubt that Jed gets outbid for Bellinger. It's just the way this offseason is headed.

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

I don't remember Theo being irrational.  The Phillies signed Bryce Harper, Cubs fans cried, and Theo signed zero-tool Daniel Descalso to a 2-year deal with a buyout for the 3rd year.  This is what they do.

IMO if most Cubs fans were the GM they would panic after every big signing and Boras would fleece them every winter.  Then they'd take their salary as GM and lose it all in the stock market lol.

Being a GM isn't much different than playing the stock market.  Buying high, selling low, and making decisions based on emotion is a recipe for disaster.  The Mets often buy high and they usually suck.  The Braves didn't build their team in FA, they let Freeman and Swanson walk and used the money to extend all their good young players, and almost all their best players are still in their prime years.

Craig Counsell is a smart dude and if he's sold on Jed's vision then i'll give Jed runway.

The word irrational wasn't chosen for it's truest definition of the word, but the way Andrew Friedman used it. Essentially, that unless you get "irrational" or go beyond what you were originally comfortable with, you'll always finish second on every player you want. And yes, Theo was irrational in that sense. Torres for Chapman was an overpay. A necessary overpay, but an overpay. And while I still think on the day of the trade the Cubs had logic behind Jimenez/Cease, we could also claim that was a bit of an irrational overpay. Let's also not forget, while we typically remember that Heyward was a "seven" year contract, to get that done, the Cubs offered one of the earlier opt-outs; essentially letting Heyward walk after just a few seasons if he was still good (sadly didn't work out). They won a bidding war with Boston for Lester. In some aspects, like a deadline deal for a true WS favorites, there are things that Hoyer hasn't been in a position to do yet, but others of these he's been in a position to make, and has yet to do that. 

No one has asked the Cubs to buy high and sell low. No one here is confused as to how this works. Let's stop moving goalposts of my post. My post isn't a misunderstanding of how being a VP of baseball ops should work in theory, it's questioning whether or not Jed Hoyer has the killer instinct to go out and win bidding wars for elite talents, has the stomach for the types of trades in which real prospect capital is leaving for real established MLB talent, which are two things you need if you're going to run a top-5 market in baseball. Thus far, even when he "wins" a free agent contract like Swanson, I think it would be fair to ask "who exactly was he bidding against when that contract was signed?" There was some maybe rumored interest from LA and maybe some rumored interest from Atlanta...but did the Cubs win that so much as Swanson and the Cubs were the best remaining fit? It's been a quality piece of business in year one, and I'll concede that, and it's not the point of that question. The question is the process. 

Jed Hoyer's managed to sell a lot of people on his vision. That's great. I say this as someone who's defended Hoyer many times in the past...his vision is waning on me, If you want to keep believing in the process, that's fine and your choice. But Jed Hoyer wouldn't be the first, or the last, guy in charge of a franchise who simply didn't have the killer instinct to take a good enough team above that level, either, and he's starting to wade into that territory for me. There's offseason left to accomplish things, but the Cubs haven't shown any initiative to acquire the types of impact talent that was available, either in FA or trade, in long-term contract land or trading for players with one year left. At some point the Cubs need to begin to be okay with trading from their prospect capital, with being okay at going after the best of the best. There will never be a perfect player at a perfect time. It's time for Jed Hoyer to get a little irrational. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

Buy low?

I guess so? Just seems like a huge risk with a guy who averages well under 100 IP per season. And I don't see why Glasnow would sign anything if it's for fewer than four years.

[Derwood]

Cubs fans: "It must be nice to be in a big market and spending to get a winner"

Dodgers fans: "Our stupid owners spend money like it grows on trees and what do we have to show for it?"

 

Grass is always greener, etc.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Cubs fans: "It must be nice to be in a big market and spending to get a winner"

Dodgers fans: "Our stupid owners spend money like it grows on trees and what do we have to show for it?"

 

Grass is always greener, etc.

Post season play every horsefeathers year of their lives?

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Post season play every horsefeathers year of their lives?

With one World Series win to show for it.

Sure, their goalposts are different, but they aren't the 1990's Yankees