2024 NFL Draft

[BigSlick]

5 minutes ago, Andy said:

Despite my extreme bitterness at the way this season is playing out, I have nothing at all against the Bears and I think it would be a mistake to flip the #1 pick again just because you were lucky enough to do it with the most inept franchise in all of pro sports the first time and you're hoping to strike gold again. The chances of Caleb Williams being as terrible as Bryce Young is, and being surrounded by a similar giant pile of crap like Young is to compound it, aren't very high.

By all means, if you're the Bears and you think you can get the guy you want later in the 1st, trade the pick, but don't just flip it because you're in love with the idea of more assets.

I’m in love with the idea of more assets.

 

I wouldn’t say that if I didn’t think this team was pretty close to competitive. (This coming week will clarify that as well!)

 

I’m completely on the fence with what the Bears should do, but I don’t think “being in love with more assets” is a bad strategy in the NFL! If the draft is a bit of a crapshoot, and I think we agree that it is, there’s nothing wrong with taking as many swings at the ball as you can get, especially when the roster is looking better and better.

[gflore34]

10 minutes ago, Andy said:

Despite my extreme bitterness at the way this season is playing out, I have nothing at all against the Bears and I think it would be a mistake to flip the #1 pick again just because you were lucky enough to do it with the most inept franchise in all of pro sports the first time and you're hoping to strike gold again. The chances of Caleb Williams being as terrible as Bryce Young is, and being surrounded by a similar giant pile of crap like Young is to compound it, aren't very high.

By all means, if you're the Bears and you think you can get the guy you want later in the 1st, trade the pick, but don't just flip it because you're in love with the idea of more assets.

Bears situation is far more favorable than what Young was drafted into, it's roster with a good QB is a playoff team.

[BigbadB]

1 hour ago, Andy said:

Despite my extreme bitterness at the way this season is playing out, I have nothing at all against the Bears and I think it would be a mistake to flip the #1 pick again just because you were lucky enough to do it with the most inept franchise in all of pro sports the first time and you're hoping to strike gold again. The chances of Caleb Williams being as terrible as Bryce Young is, and being surrounded by a similar giant pile of crap like Young is to compound it, aren't very high.

By all means, if you're the Bears and you think you can get the guy you want later in the 1st, trade the pick, but don't just flip it because you're in love with the idea of more assets.

I'm not in love with the idea of trading down, but I do love the idea. I'm all in on drafting....

A) The top QB in the draft

B) Drafting MHJ, either at 1 or trading down a spot or two

C) Trading for a haul. 

In no particular order.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think falling in love with more assets is a fantastic approach.  Unfortunately getting out of QB hell takes precedence 

[jumbo]

1 hour ago, Andy said:

Despite my extreme bitterness at the way this season is playing out, I have nothing at all against the Bears and I think it would be a mistake to flip the #1 pick again just because you were lucky enough to do it with the most inept franchise in all of pro sports the first time and you're hoping to strike gold again. The chances of Caleb Williams being as terrible as Bryce Young is, and being surrounded by a similar giant pile of crap like Young is to compound it, aren't very high.

By all means, if you're the Bears and you think you can get the guy you want later in the 1st, trade the pick, but don't just flip it because you're in love with the idea of more assets.

I think there are two clear paths here:

First path is draft Williams or Maye and trade Fields away for whatever you can get. You still have another high pick you can use to draft a stud or trade back to get more picks.

Second path is to roll with Fields. In this situation you have to trade out of #1 to get future first round picks. No less than one, even if that's NE trading up one spot. This follows the Eagles model where Howie kept ammunition to trade up in case they wanted to move on from Hurts. Retaining this flexibility is the most important thing if you keep Fields. 

A third path could be to keep Fields and use all the picks, but I don't like that option. This season, no matter what happens these last four games, has not been the slam dunk of "is he the guy" that this season was all about back in the summer. We still don't know and I don't think we will based on the last four games. 

I'm replying to this comment because this is the one way having more assets helps you in this decision. It essentially puts it off a year to give Fields another run at showing what he is. Not sure which of these is right, but I think I like the second path the best right now. 

[jersey cubs fan]

I’m just highly skeptical of any qb in this class being worthy of 1st pick. They all seem like guys that will be drafted first because that’s the rule, not because they cemented themselves as no doubt qb studs coming out of college. The history of 1st pick QBs taken out of obligation rather than worth is terrible. 
 

Caleb Williams came into the season as a supposedly no doubt better option than anybody from last years draft, and I didn’t see that at all in the handful of games I watched. He’s a smaller Justin Fields. 
 

I feel like the biggest benefit at this point is ending the Fields debate and restarting the QB clock. I dont see a football related benefit to the selection, at this time. 
 

I’m not locked into that thought, and maybe it changes by April. But, I see a lot of change for changes sake arguments being made and I say that as somebody who has advocated for such things in the past. 

[Old Style]

Change for the sake of change is not a good plan. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There's almost nothing similar about Justin fields and Caleb Williams and it's bizarre that people keep insisting there is.

Fields has prototypical size and elite speed.  Williams is small and has functional speed.

Fields is by far at his best passing in the pocket.  Williams is at his best out of the pocket.

Williams has elite accuracy, fields has a pretty good deep ball accuracy but is inconsistent and low-rater accuracy in general.

Williams is known for his great pocket presence and ability to make plays with a blitz or rush in his face.  Fields is known to struggle with the blitz and move into pass rushers.

Literally the only similarity is that their plays tend to take a long time and they take sacks (actually to be fair they both are a bit loose with ball security when taking hits too). But they get to it by completely different ways.  It's like saying a low-bb hacker with a lot of Ks and a three-true outcome guy who works counts are the same.

If you just don't like Caleb Williams and want a downside comp, I think Kyler Murray makes a lot of sense.

 

But doggedly comparing him to fields is just refusing to look at their actual play.  Maye is more similar to fields than Williams is 

[jersey cubs fan]

Kyler Murray as a downside comp is laughable 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Caleb Williams has somehow become criminally underrated by the alliance of people who don't want to admit they were always wrong about fields, bears fans who are scared of being disappointed, and people who just get bored when the no. 1 pick is clear this far in advance.

It's the same WSCR-level hot taking that had people saying "golly this Peyton Manning fellow is supposed to be amazing but he could only put up 131 yards against Nebraska in the Orange Bowl? I just don't see what's so great."

I can't even figure out what the actual complaint is.  His stats are excellent again this season.  I don't think many people are *actually* stupid enough to care about his college W-L, they just know they don't like him and feel like they have to parrot any criticism they can think of.

What looked off? He consistently showed fantastic pocket poise, an unbelievable ability to make hard and accurate throws without needing to reset his feet, and an excellent ability to throw in rhythm with a quick release. Everything you want to see from a pro prospect at QB.

He will need to prove he can speed up to pro-level operation, which is true of every college quarterback, but unlike Justin Fields he's given scouts zero reason to doubt his ability to make that transition.

If for some reason someone wants to make the case to never take a sub-Elway/Manning level QB because they think the value is always better to trade down, I can respect that argument even if I disagree with it. Williams isn't quite that level, even though he's going to end up being the best qb prospect to hit the draft in a 4-5 year span starting post-lawrence.

But just not being sure if you like him as a prospect?  I literally can't figure out what they're looking at and have to believe it's based on nothing about him.

[mul21]

10 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Caleb Williams has somehow become criminally underrated by the alliance of people who don't want to admit they were always wrong about fields, bears fans who are scared of being disappointed, and people who just get bored when the no. 1 pick is clear this far in advance.

It's the same WSCR-level hot taking that had people saying "golly this Peyton Manning fellow is supposed to be amazing but he could only put up 131 yards against Nebraska in the Orange Bowl? I just don't see what's so great."

I can't even figure out what the actual complaint is.  His stats are excellent again this season.  I don't think many people are *actually* stupid enough to care about his college W-L, they just know they don't like him and feel like they have to parrot any criticism they can think of.

What looked off? He consistently showed fantastic pocket poise, an unbelievable ability to make hard and accurate throws without needing to reset his feet, and an excellent ability to throw in rhythm with a quick release. Everything you want to see from a pro prospect at QB.

He will need to prove he can speed up to pro-level operation, which is true of every college quarterback, but unlike Justin Fields he's given scouts zero reason to doubt his ability to make that transition.

If for some reason someone wants to make the case to never take a sub-Elway/Manning level QB because they think the value is always better to trade down, I can respect that argument even if I disagree with it. Williams isn't quite that level, even though he's going to end up being the best qb prospect to hit the draft in a 4-5 year span starting post-lawrence.

But just not being sure if you like him as a prospect?  I literally can't figure out what they're looking at and have to believe it's based on nothing about him.

I admittedly didn't watch him much but the Notre Dame game he just wilted in the face of pressure, much like I've seen Fields do regularly.  It was concerning.  Now, was the ND pass rush that much better than the USC line that day and he didn't have a chance?  Possibly, but I'll leave that judgement to the experts.  The size has me concerned as well.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

42 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I admittedly didn't watch him much but the Notre Dame game he just wilted in the face of pressure, much like I've seen Fields do regularly.  It was concerning.  Now, was the ND pass rush that much better than the USC line that day and he didn't have a chance?  Possibly, but I'll leave that judgement to the experts.  The size has me concerned as well.

I think that it's one heck of a coincidence that that is the only game you saw. 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Caleb-Williams-QB-USC

"His play doesn't drop off when under pressure - made an array of quality passes while trying to avoid a heavy pass rush"

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

"Routinely compensated for a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps by identifying incoming blitzes, hot reads, and extending plays when needed."

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-caleb-williams-usc-quarterback-similar-in-style-skill-set-to-bills-josh

"Most quarterbacks exhibit some level of panic versus free pass rushers, but Williams sees those moments as playmaking opportunities."

He's just not the player some bears fans have convinced themselves he is 

.

 

[Tryptamine]

27 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I think that it's one heck of a coincidence that that is the only game you saw. 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Caleb-Williams-QB-USC

"His play doesn't drop off when under pressure - made an array of quality passes while trying to avoid a heavy pass rush"

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

"Routinely compensated for a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps by identifying incoming blitzes, hot reads, and extending plays when needed."

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-caleb-williams-usc-quarterback-similar-in-style-skill-set-to-bills-josh

"Most quarterbacks exhibit some level of panic versus free pass rushers, but Williams sees those moments as playmaking opportunities."

He's just not the player some bears fans have convinced themselves he is 

.

 

As I've said before, I think he's significantly better at sensing pocket pressure than Fields is. I think he's a better short passer than Fields. I think he throws a worse deep ball and he definitely doesn't have the athleticism and build of Fields, though he's by no means slow. I think there's a better than average shot he's a superior QB to Fields. My question is, by how much? I don't think he's at all this generational talent or must have 1.1 QB some people are making him out to be. If we're talking strictly based on talent, I'm not sure he's top 3 in this class. If they take him, I get it, but it's just not the direction I'd go with things unless Fields faceplants over the next 4 games and, with Cleveland up next, that is a distinct possibility.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Tryptamine

[gflore34]

19 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I think that it's one heck of a coincidence that that is the only game you saw. 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Caleb-Williams-QB-USC

"His play doesn't drop off when under pressure - made an array of quality passes while trying to avoid a heavy pass rush"

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

"Routinely compensated for a mediocre offensive line and receiving corps by identifying incoming blitzes, hot reads, and extending plays when needed."

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-caleb-williams-usc-quarterback-similar-in-style-skill-set-to-bills-josh

"Most quarterbacks exhibit some level of panic versus free pass rushers, but Williams sees those moments as playmaking opportunities."

He's just not the player some bears fans have convinced themselves he is 

.

 

What about the emphasis Poles puts on size?  He's listed at 6'0 it's probably closer to 5'11 - 5'10.5, Maye' listed at 6'4 it's probably closer to 6'3 - 6'2.5, Maye has more of the prototypical size for a QB.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

What about the emphasis Poles puts on size?  He's listed at 6'0 it's probably closer to 5'11 - 5'10.5, Maye' listed at 6'4 it's probably closer to 6'3 - 6'2.5, Maye has more of the prototypical size for a QB.

That's a valid argument 

[Outshined_One]

I've said it before, but my main concern with trading out of #1 overall is that next year's draft does not look good from a QB perspective. Things can change in a year, but I don't like the odds that the 2025 class will be better than the 2024 class given how things stand now.

If you want to keep Fields, you damn well better be sure it's the right call, especially if Williams and/or Maye turn out to be studs.

[raw]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:36 PM, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Caleb Williams has somehow become criminally underrated by the alliance of people who don't want to admit they were always wrong about fields, bears fans who are scared of being disappointed, and people who just get bored when the no. 1 pick is clear this far in advance.

It's the same WSCR-level hot taking that had people saying "golly this Peyton Manning fellow is supposed to be amazing but he could only put up 131 yards against Nebraska in the Orange Bowl? I just don't see what's so great."

I can't even figure out what the actual complaint is.  His stats are excellent again this season.  I don't think many people are *actually* stupid enough to care about his college W-L, they just know they don't like him and feel like they have to parrot any criticism they can think of.

What looked off? He consistently showed fantastic pocket poise, an unbelievable ability to make hard and accurate throws without needing to reset his feet, and an excellent ability to throw in rhythm with a quick release. Everything you want to see from a pro prospect at QB.

He will need to prove he can speed up to pro-level operation, which is true of every college quarterback, but unlike Justin Fields he's given scouts zero reason to doubt his ability to make that transition.

If for some reason someone wants to make the case to never take a sub-Elway/Manning level QB because they think the value is always better to trade down, I can respect that argument even if I disagree with it. Williams isn't quite that level, even though he's going to end up being the best qb prospect to hit the draft in a 4-5 year span starting post-lawrence.

But just not being sure if you like him as a prospect?  I literally can't figure out what they're looking at and have to believe it's based on nothing about him.

This is what I've been arguing on Twitter. Everyone talking about losing against top teams and his numbers being down against top 25 defenses....but isn't that why they are top 25 defenses? They are doing that against everybody. But the traits haven't changed. He was in so much pressure so soon this year. UCLA has a top 10 pick and another pick or 2 upfront. Washington has a couple mid round edges. Utah always has guys. Oregon has multiple top 100 guys on their front. He's playing with an OL that has no guys that are going to get drafted in the top 200. Not saying draftable talent is the end-all be-all of whether you have good protection or not, but he still averaged 300 passing in those games, just didn't have the big TD numbers. They did score 20+ in all those games I named and 27+ in all but UCLA.

The Notre Dame game was just a bad game. It happens. Justin Fields had a similarly bad game vs IU in 2020. 

[raw]

On 12/13/2023 at 8:11 PM, Outshined_One said:

I've said it before, but my main concern with trading out of #1 overall is that next year's draft does not look good from a QB perspective. Things can change in a year, but I don't like the odds that the 2025 class will be better than the 2024 class given how things stand now.

If you want to keep Fields, you damn well better be sure it's the right call, especially if Williams and/or Maye turn out to be studs.

I don't even think it matters if Williams or Maye end up as studs. Because logically speaking, it's going to be cheaper if they fail than if Fields fails, ultimately. If the draft pick fails, even a high one, you're just back in the same cycle the Bears have been in for 100 years. If Fields fails, the worst case is you've signed him for 40-50M/year for several years. The best case you've paid him 26M+ (by accepting the 5th year option) for 2 years vs similar money for 4 years of the #1 pick. And you're likely still in the same cycle. But when you do actually take your next QB, you are likely taking a lesser prospect by virtue of not having prospects as highly rated as Williams/Maye or by not having the #1 overall pick. And you add that money to whatever Fields makes over the next couple years. Sure you can find QBs outside of the #1 pick, but the chances get slimmer the further down you go.

[BigSlick]

Something Josh Lucas hammered on, and I think something NFL executives and scouts are keying on more lately is simply the amount of playing time and number of snaps mattering a whole lot more to how developed and ready a player is when they get to the pros. This is kind of intuitive stuff, but for some reason got lost in the shuffle in the last 10 years, and in the meantime people were pushing up QB development time up more and more. So guys were starting their rookie years after being drafted from college teams when they only started one year and stuff. It was madness.

 

all this to say that it’s interesting that peoples expectations for Caleb Williams as a prospect has dropped when he’s played another year (good) faced more adversity (also good) and as far as I can tell, hasn’t revealed any new glaring issues people weren’t aware of before the year started

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, BigSlick said:

Something Josh Lucas hammered on, and I think something NFL executives and scouts are keying on more lately is simply the amount of playing time and number of snaps mattering a whole lot more to how developed and ready a player is when they get to the pros. This is kind of intuitive stuff, but for some reason got lost in the shuffle in the last 10 years, and in the meantime people were pushing up QB development time up more and more. So guys were starting their rookie years after being drafted from college teams when they only started one year and stuff. It was madness.

 

all this to say that it’s interesting that peoples expectations for Caleb Williams as a prospect has dropped when he’s played another year (good) faced more adversity (also good) and as far as I can tell, hasn’t revealed any new glaring issues people weren’t aware of before the year started

Is anyone saying he's bad? He's obviously a very good QB prospect, I think what most people take issue with was that he was a generational talent or that he was the clear cut no questions asked 1.1 in this draft. He's neither of those.

[BigSlick]

No one is saying he's bad, but lots of Bears fans and other pundits have been walking back their opinion that he's a generational talent (and I think a good amount of that is that people are feeling more confident in Fields and more hesitant to pull the trigger on drafting a QB)  

[jersey cubs fan]

42 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

No one is saying he's bad, but lots of Bears fans and other pundits have been walking back their opinion that he's a generational talent (and I think a good amount of that is that people are feeling more confident in Fields and more hesitant to pull the trigger on drafting a QB)  

I’m definitely not feeling more confident in Fields. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

9 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Is anyone saying he's bad? He's obviously a very good QB prospect, I think what most people take issue with was that he was a generational talent or that he was the clear cut no questions asked 1.1 in this draft. He's neither of those.

"generational" is a dumb word that has been completely shredded by arbitrary use.

Williams is, however, a zero-doubt 1.1 in this draft and the best QB prospect we're likely to see in a stretch that lasts 4-6 years between Lawrence and the near future.

 

[BigbadB]

I think if Poles is drafting today, he's taking Williams. I also think on draft day, he may still want to draft his QB. It's a wonderful problem to have to be in this much control with the first pick. 

[jumbo]

On 12/15/2023 at 11:04 PM, Hairyducked Idiot said:

"generational" is a dumb word that has been completely shredded by arbitrary use.

Williams is, however, a zero-doubt 1.1 in this draft and the best QB prospect we're likely to see in a stretch that lasts 4-6 years between Lawrence and the near future.

 

You used 1.1 instead of 10A? This is proof of something, but I'm not sure what...