Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I bet more of a stab in the dark signing than anything. I'm always good with taking stabs at the dark on lefties with weird deliveries. 

He played for the same team as Shota Imanaga last year, which is interesting.  A product of the scouting department over there taking lots of looks at Imanaga me thinks.

edit:  The last several years it looks like.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Cuzi said:

The pieces the Cubs have on the level of Bichette to trade, they need them as much as the Blue Jays. Meanwhile the Cubs dont need a SS. I fail to see the logical connection from both sides.

Now if we were talking about Vlad? I might get interested. Vlad is someone I could see the Blue Jays trading because they would likely get way more in return than his worth because of his name and what he did years ago. Hes trending down for years while his salary is trending up.

Bichette would play 3B for the Cubs I imagine, and I think based on his sub-FA salary and 2 seasons left before FA he would make a very good fit at least until Shaw might be ready.  Bichette could still be traded again by the Cubs (ie 2025 trade deadline) before FA if Shaw progresses and doesn't get hurt.  Jays are still in a playoff window so would probably demand players at or near the MLB.  I'm thinking Morel and maybe a pitcher, like Wesneski + another prospect.  Morel could play SS/2B for them and be much cheaper than Bichette, so in theory it works for the Jays.

Besides the pen, the Cubs can't get much better in FA this offseason unless they spend well over the CBT line, because they still need to replace the value lost from Bellinger and Stroman.  A trade for a very good player with surplus like Bichette would be good for the team for 2024.

[ToolDRT]

4 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

The Roberts trade rumor thread is quite a legendary thread on NSBB.  There was obsessive constant posting for months and months.  Peavy was also a long obsessive thread with its own legendary moments (Peavy signing Go Cubs Go at a bar), but something about that Roberts thread just sticks in my head.  Roberts was a solid 4 win player and filled an area of need, but I'm not sure why we were so obsessed with getting him.

I’m sad I missed the Roberts saga! I do recall the Peavy stuff on our old board and even specifically remember the “go cubs go” thing! I was so excited that night as I wanted Peavy badly. The letdown on the last day of the winter meetings when Hendry announced they weren’t trading for him…good times! 🤣

[thawv]

On 11/18/2023 at 1:46 AM, Stratos said:

He'd probably want a 1-yr for 2025, so 2 yrs total, which would be fine.

Lots of teams will be interested, wonder what he'd command for the 2025 year.  Maybe he'll just want 1 yr now, and go to FA and get another 1 yr.  Who knows.

I'd give him 4/72 and put him on the 2024 payroll today.  

[Jason Ross]

58 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'd give him 4/72 and put him on the 2024 payroll today.  

I would guess Woodruff is not interested in that kind of a deal. That makes him a free agent again at 34 and that's not really a time to cash in for many. He's probably more interested in a 2 year deal that gets him a rehab year + 1 year to rebuild value to get a 5-6 year deal on the backend. While that kind of a contract obviously gives him more guarantees, a successful return to form would put Woodruff as a high priority free agent. These players are confident in themselves.

Edited November 21, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[squally1313]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

 

Besides the pen, the Cubs can't get much better in FA this offseason unless they spend well over the CBT line, because they still need to replace the value lost from Bellinger and Stroman.  A trade for a very good player with surplus like Bichette would be good for the team for 2024.

I don't know why this is bothering me so much, but going into the offseason thinking that we're in this like, 9 win hole or whatever that we have to make up before we can call the team improved just strikes me as very unnecessarily pessimistic. 

• I don't think you can name a team out there that doesn't have somewhat significant production from last year currently unsigned/without a contract. Said another way, there's a ton of talent that was contributing across the league now sitting in the FA pool.
• It seems one sided to only look at Stroman and Belli. We also 'lost' the -2.3 fWAR generated by Young, Mancini, Hosmer, Rios, and Mervis. And even if we don't replace Stroman and Belli with stars, you can still reasonably expect like, 1.5 wins from each position just from internal replacements or minor signings. PCA is projected for 1.1 in 94 games, as an example. 

Basically, of course it would be nice to still have that production under contract. But the Cubs lost their 3rd best offensive player and 3rd best pitcher by overall fWAR value. Not exactly an emergency, and I'm sure that 'loss' isn't unique across baseball. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would guess Woodruff is not interested in that kind of a deal. That makes him a free agent again at 34 and that's not really a time to cash in for many. He's probably more interested in a 2 year deal that gets him a rehab year + 1 year to rebuild value to get a 5-6 year deal on the backend. While that kind of a contract obviously gives him more guarantees, a successful return to form would put Woodruff as a high priority free agent. These players are confident in themselves.

I dunno, he turns 31 before this next season starts and he's probably not going to pitch meaningfully in 2024. I would be a little surprised if he ends up with more than 72 guaranteed over his next 4.  But I also suspect that especially the deal he signs this offseason is going to be on the creative end of the spectrum.  I'd be interested in getting him, but I'd be concerned about how much dead money could be on the payroll for 2024 that could handcuff other moves if the 2024 LT number isn't sufficiently low.

[Bertz]

Shoulders =/= elbows.  It's probably at least a coinflip Woodruff's washed, and even if he's not do you want to burn ~$15M on what we're all hoping is a very competitive 2024?  He would have been an absolutely perfect signing last year or the year prior, but I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze currently.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, you can count me pretty "out" on Brandon Woodruff. There's a world where he returns, but there's plenty of worlds where he's toasted, or just decent. If the Cubs want to get creative, there feels like ample opportunities that exist, and I'd be worried about tying up that money in 2024. 

[thawv]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would guess Woodruff is not interested in that kind of a deal. That makes him a free agent again at 34 and that's not really a time to cash in for many. He's probably more interested in a 2 year deal that gets him a rehab year + 1 year to rebuild value to get a 5-6 year deal on the backend. While that kind of a contract obviously gives him more guarantees, a successful return to form would put Woodruff as a high priority free agent. These players are confident in themselves.

What would a 6 year deal look like?

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

What would a 6 year deal look like?

Couldn't tell you. I wouldn't touch a shoulder injury like his on a 6 year deal right now.

[Cuzi]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Bichette would play 3B for the Cubs I imagine, and I think based on his sub-FA salary and 2 seasons left before FA he would make a very good fit at least until Shaw might be ready.  Bichette could still be traded again by the Cubs (ie 2025 trade deadline) before FA if Shaw progresses and doesn't get hurt.  Jays are still in a playoff window so would probably demand players at or near the MLB.  I'm thinking Morel and maybe a pitcher, like Wesneski + another prospect.  Morel could play SS/2B for them and be much cheaper than Bichette, so in theory it works for the Jays.

Besides the pen, the Cubs can't get much better in FA this offseason unless they spend well over the CBT line, because they still need to replace the value lost from Bellinger and Stroman.  A trade for a very good player with surplus like Bichette would be good for the team for 2024.

I wish I knew why people think a team is going to trade their best player, at the most premium position on the diamond, with 2 years of control for a utility player that potentially can't play a defensive position, a long reliever, and an unknown prospect. You aren't getting Bichette for scraps.

[Tryptamine]

If we're being more realistic, Bichette is 100% going to take one of PCA/Horton and that's on top of Morel. Even then I'm not sure they wouldn't want a third prospect in the Ballesteros/Caissie tier.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Tryptamine

[CubinNY]

I did a Google search and the only thing I'm seeing is the Dodgers and they are also linked to Adamas. My question why would the Blue Jays be looking to get rid of him?

It's highly unlikely he will come to the Cubs to play 3B.

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I did a Google search and the only thing I'm seeing is the Dodgers and they are also linked to Adamas. My question why would the Blue Jays be looking to get rid of him?

It's highly unlikely he will come to the Cubs to play 3B.

The Blue Jays probably aren't looking to get rid of any of their MLB players. But a few of them do only have 2 years remaining, like Bichette. So they are getting close to the crossroads of having to choose a direction on their future. I would have to imagine that future would include Bichette, but not someone like Vlad.

A team would likely have to overpay to get anything off their MLB roster. I wouldnt be willing to overpay for a SS, but I would be willing to overpay for Vlad. He's trending down, but he plays a position we have an opening for and his batted ball profile is the same exact reason I defended Suzuki on PSD while 95% of the board was constantly saying he was a terrible hitter and another Fukudome. I would be willing to take the risk of overpaying to get Vlad because he is just 1B/DH and the package probably doesnt sting near as bad as it would for Bichette.

[Bertz]

I think it was literally just someone on Twitter being like "wouldn't this be sweet?" rather than anything approaching a rumor.

Bichette would probably cost Justin Steele, because with the Blue Jays right in contention it's not just a matter of matching value over a ~5 year horizon you've got to come pretty close on matching value in the immediate term as well.

[thawv]

34 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If we're being more realistic, Bichette is 100% going to take one of PCA/Horton and that's on top of Morel. Even then I'm not sure they wouldn't want a third prospect in the Ballesteros/Caissie tier.

I think that PCA and Brown would get it done.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think it was literally just someone on Twitter being like "wouldn't this be sweet?" rather than anything approaching a rumor.

Bichette would probably cost Justin Steele, because with the Blue Jays right in contention it's not just a matter of matching value over a ~5 year horizon you've got to come pretty close on matching value in the immediate term as well.

Yeah, the tweet in general was just weird. Like, it's really random to be just a random tweet. It also doesn't make any sense the Jays would be interested in moving Bichette to be real. Ultimately I agree with you, it's likely the first; just a really random thought.

Edited November 21, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[muntjack]

Morel provided the same offensive value at a younger age and has more team control.  Bichette's decent?? defense is valuable, but it isn't Caisse + PCA valuable. 

[Rcal10]

What is needed to get Cease? How about if Moncada is added? He is negative value. So would Morel and maybe Ben Brown get the Cubs Cease/Moncada? 

[ToolDRT]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is needed to get Cease? How about if Moncada is added? He is negative value. So would Morel and maybe Ben Brown get the Cubs Cease/Moncada? 

I don’t know, Moncada is pretty expensive for how meh-to-sucky he’s been. If Ohtani doesn’t work I’d rather just go all in on Yamamoto and trade for a 3rd baseman. 

[ToolDRT]

 

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Morel provided the same offensive value at a younger age and has more team control.  Bichette's decent?? defense is valuable, but it isn't Caisse + PCA valuable. 

 He's a 25 year old SS with 2 years of control, who has averaged almost 4.5 fWAR per year over the last 3 years, That's incredibly valuable. In his worst year, he put up almost a full fWAR more than Morel's entire career. 

[ToolDRT]

35 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think it was literally just someone on Twitter being like "wouldn't this be sweet?" rather than anything approaching a rumor.

Bichette would probably cost Justin Steele, because with the Blue Jays right in contention it's not just a matter of matching value over a ~5 year horizon you've got to come pretty close on matching value in the immediate term as well.

It felt like with some of his gif replies to people he was almost alluding to knowing something. Having said that, I think he might just want attention 🤣

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is needed to get Cease? How about if Moncada is added? He is negative value. So would Morel and maybe Ben Brown get the Cubs Cease/Moncada? 

That feels pretty fair, and BBTV thinks it's actually a slight overpay.  I don't love Moncada but I'd do it to get Cease in the door.

One additional benefit of dealing with the Sox, and this applies to the Angels too, is they're so bereft of talent you might be able to get away with a quantity over quality trade, as evidenced by the Bummer deal.