Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I think Jed and his team are going to develop PCA the way they think is correct regardless of the record of the team. They've shown no indication that they are invested in winning this year at the potential cost of the future. 

I generally agree with that. I think the Cubs have done a pretty great job of developing prospects, specifically at the MiLB level. I do have a few questions on how the Cubs have used some of their MiLB depth at times, but I do feel confident they'll do right by PCA overall.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I think Jed and his team are going to develop PCA the way they think is correct regardless of the record of the team. They've shown no indication that they are invested in winning this year at the potential cost of the future. 

Which is great, but they should be invested in this year's team while doing what's right for PCA.  There's no reason you can't make some impactful acquisitions while allowing PCA and others to develop into solid ML contributors.  You still have lots of money and plenty of prospects who don't seem to fit in the plans for the future.  When the kids are ready, then you have a wonderful "problem" with quality depth at most positions and lots of tradeable assets.

[squally1313]

Just now, Backtobanks said:

Which is great, but they should be invested in this year's team while doing what's right for PCA.  There's no reason you can't make some impactful acquisitions while allowing PCA and others to develop into solid ML contributors.  You still have lots of money and plenty of prospects who don't seem to fit in the plans for the future.  When the kids are ready, then you have a wonderful "problem" with quality depth at most positions and lots of tradeable assets.

Why don't the prospects you're referring to seem to fit in the plans for the future?

PCA is months, not years away. You sign Bellinger to an 8 year deal, or even a 4 year deal, you have Happ and Suzuki locked in through 2026, where in your standards does PCA get a sufficient opportunity to develop into a 'solid ML contributor'? If he's an unknown now, he's just going to stay an unknown. If Bellinger is a hedge against PCA not turning into a valuable MLB player, sure, fine. But if that's the case, then you trade PCA now, as a top 20 prospect, because the small increased value you'd get from him destroying AAA for a few months isn't at all worth the downside of him struggling. 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Which is great, but they should be invested in this year's team while doing what's right for PCA.  There's no reason you can't make some impactful acquisitions while allowing PCA and others to develop into solid ML contributors.  You still have lots of money and plenty of prospects who don't seem to fit in the plans for the future.  When the kids are ready, then you have a wonderful "problem" with quality depth at most positions and lots of tradeable assets.

the sarcasm in post was clearly too understated. 

But seriously, I think they believe that they are approximately the 2014/15 Cubs version of a team and are not going to make commitments they think will harm the future. We can agree or disagree with the strategy. I think they are not close to a really good team unless a few of PCA, Horton, Wicks, Shaw, Caissie, Alcantara, Ferris, Busch turn out to be the best version of their prospect status. 

 

[17 Seconds]

jed is talking right now, and brett paraphrased this bit

Quote

What inning is it in the offseason? The closer is certainly warming up, says Jed. Still in contact with free agents, may add more, but at this point we’re focusing on the guys who are here.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

It's all dependent on Bellinger signing, and even then I would probably make the argument that PCA should still be on the team. PCA should absolutely be starting over Tauchman if those are your two options. This eventually becomes a more philosophical conversation about how WAR translates to wins (but, in a way, aren't they all?), but looking at the defensive leaders in centerfield from last year, it seems exceedingly easy to accrue WAR, even with below average offensive production, with above average/elite defensive ability. 

Someone like Joey Wiemer from the Brewers last year is probably an example of PCA's bat being worse than any expectations (his ZIPs line is 246/308/408). Wiemer put up a 212/285/390 line in 362 PAs last year and his defense was still good enough to give him 1.2 fWAR. Even if that is maybe fractionally less than what Tauchman did or projects to give, I think you have to still give the nod to PCA just for future developmental purposes. 

Did you watch the games in Sept last year?  PCA looked way over his head in almost every single aspect of the game in his short stint.  Baserunning decisions were terrible, some of this fielding decisions were over anxious leading to misplays, and obviously his hitting was horrible.  Tauchman isn't going to make any of those mental mistakes.   Some of it is just nerves, but PCA is 21, he needs more time in the oven against the older more experienced players in AAA.  I'm sure the Cubs are aware of all of this.  If he starts the year on the MLB roster it's because someone got hurt.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Did you watch the games in Sept last year?  PCA looked way over his head in almost every single aspect of the game in his short stint.  Baserunning decisions were terrible, some of this fielding decisions were over anxious leading to misplays, and obviously his hitting was horrible.  Tauchman isn't going to make any of those mental mistakes.   Some of it is just nerves, but PCA is 21, he needs more time in the oven against the older more experienced players in AAA.  I'm sure the Cubs are aware of all of this.  If he starts the year on the MLB roster it's because someone got hurt.

I'm not basing anything off 19 PAs and however you want to extrapolate that sample size to fielding and running. He was obviously pressing. If you believe in the ability that is reflected in his minor league numbers, you could make the argument that assuring him the center field job is his for the entire season would alleviate a lot of those issues. I'm fine with the arguments about contact rate or whatever. He absolutely doesn't need more time in the minors to work on fielding or baserunning.

[Bertz]

I was very happy with the idea of PCA in CF if we'd added like a Soto.  But I think, even taking a Bellinger/Chapman add as a given I feel like this iteration of the offseason we don't have the buffer that I'm comfortable with to run him out there everyday from day 1.  I don't think he needs a ton of time, I'd guess he's tracking towards Memorial Day, but I would not want him breaking camp at this point.

[Tryptamine]

36 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

jed is talking right now, and brett paraphrased this bit

Embrace the mediocrity

[SOFNR]

43 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

jed is talking right now, and brett paraphrased this bit

Interesting that the only thing between the 4th inning and the closer is Neris. But considering the waiting game he's playing I don't think that statement neccessarily rules him out of any of the big 4. It's Feb 14, and he's clearly ready to lose out on anybody if they don't meet his price. I'm not really optimistic about them adding another good bat or spending up to tax line anymore though. You can already see most of the sentiment switching from "All the reports say they're ready to spend. Quit whining. Just wait it out" to "Well we really don't need any more help anyway. It's not even worth spending money"  Same old. Same old.

Edited February 14, 2024 by SOFNR

[CubinNY]

I'm always a win-now guy, but I'm not going to get real angry about this offseason. 

Soto is a one-year and a costly rental

Bellinger, Chapman, etc. is a commitment in years that may not make sense

Ohtani was myth

The one that bothers me is Yammamoto -- There are 0 reasons for them not to make the best offer, if he didn't want to come it's on him.

The rest, they did ok with the guys they did target. I'm not a strong advocate of the Busch trade though.

[squally1313]

40 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

Interesting that the only thing between the 4th inning and the closer is Neris. But considering the waiting game he's playing I don't think that statement neccessarily rules him out of any of the big 4. It's Feb 14, and he's clearly ready to lose out on anybody if they don't meet his price. I'm not really optimistic about them adding another good bat or spending up to tax line anymore though. You can already see most of the sentiment switching from "All the reports say they're ready to spend. Quit whining. Just wait it out" to "Well we really don't need any more help anyway. It's not even worth spending money"  Same old. Same old.

I mean, what else would you say in this situation? "Still plenty of time, we're 100% going to be adding at least one big name, mark that down as a guarantee, Scott Boras, do you hear me, I'm now legally bound to sign one of your players"? Who cares, it's a press conference. 

Edited February 14, 2024 by squally1313

[Tim]

51 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I was very happy with the idea of PCA in CF if we'd added like a Soto.  But I think, even taking a Bellinger/Chapman add as a given I feel like this iteration of the offseason we don't have the buffer that I'm comfortable with to run him out there everyday from day 1.  I don't think he needs a ton of time, I'd guess he's tracking towards Memorial Day, but I would not want him breaking camp at this point.

I don't know...What he is today may not be what he was at the end of last year. From the press conference today (BN's summary of what was said):

Quote

PCA worked unbelievably hard this offseason, Jed says. He was at the complex almost every day. He looks great. And he’s a great teammate. He wants the Cubs to win games, and he knows he’s good, but he also just wants anyone else around who helps the team win (the question was about Cody and Tauchman).

It will be very interesting to see how PCA looks in spring training games and word from scrimmages/workouts. I'm hoping he breaks camp with the team, because I hope that means the Cubs believe he is ready.

[muntjack]

I understand frustration with having to lower expectations with each passing month.  We were all looking forward to an active,  impactful offseason.  However, the Busch trade is exactly the kind of move I love to see outside of procuring an established star, so it wasn't a total disaster in my eyes.   

[JBears79]

11 minutes ago, Tim said:

I don't know...What he is today may not be what he was at the end of last year. From the press conference today (BN's summary of what was said):

It will be very interesting to see how PCA looks in spring training games and word from scrimmages/workouts. I'm hoping he breaks camp with the team, because I hope that means the Cubs believe he is ready.

Would love if he broke camp with the team but I'd personally like to see him get half a season at AAA and reevaluate then.

[Soul]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

I understand frustration with having to lower expectations with each passing month.  We were all looking forward to an active,  impactful offseason.  However, the Busch trade is exactly the kind of move I love to see outside of procuring an established star, so it wasn't a total disaster in my eyes.   

Why did they make the Counsel move?  Because they think he can get passable results while they skimp off on salaries for players?  Why would Counsel agree to such a thing?

I must admit to being confused by how the offseason started and how it ended up.

[Sammy Sofa]

Because they paid him a lot of money.

[17 Seconds]

i'd still be pretty shocked if they didn't get one of the boras guys

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, Soul said:

Why did they make the Counsel move?  Because they think he can get passable results while they skimp off on salaries for players?  Why would Counsel agree to such a thing?

I must admit to being confused by how the offseason started and how it ended up.

In the grand scheme of fighting for wins and the costs involved, It was a pretty cheap investment. I know I keep saying this, but Jed is getting his chessboard set and Counsel is part of those moves. He's an upgrade and then some over Ross, how many wins that translates to is anyone's guess and is probably really hard to quantify though. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

jed is talking right now, and brett paraphrased this bit

Closer warming up?  They're down a few runs and need a hell of a 9th to get the walk off.

[chopsx9]

47 minutes ago, Sammy Sofa said:

Because they paid him a lot of money.

No other team was going to pay him a lot of money?

[Stratos]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/scott-effross-out-several-months-due-to-back-surgery.html

Edited February 14, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Soul said:

Why did they make the Counsel move?  Because they think he can get passable results while they skimp off on salaries for players?  Why would Counsel agree to such a thing?

I must admit to being confused by how the offseason started and how it ended up.

Brewers won on a low payroll.   Cubs want that

[Sammy Sofa]

34 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

No other team was going to pay him a lot of money?

A record-setting amount? Probably not.

[Rob]

We gave this guy a record-setting contract so we wouldn't have to spend money!