Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Tryptamine]

This offseason is full of weird emotions. The surprise and the high expectations coming off the Counsell signing, the excitement of the Ohtani pursuit, the realization that the Cubs weren't really all in on Ohtani and were never really in on either Yamamoto or Soto either. Then with each passing name, convincing myself that this is the one that's going to break the dam and yet the days of nothing continue to drag on. Now I just kind of alternate daily between desperation like "surely Jed is going to make a move today, he has to do something soon, right?" and the next day it's an apathy filled "I'm not sure I really care anymore, the odds of Jed putting an exciting team on the field is pretty low at this point, so whatever". 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is imagining absurd scenarios where Jed is like the GM version of Mr. Bean some type of weird, unnecessary coping mechanism for people?  Should we theorize if he's spent the entire offseason trying to figure out Boras's phone number, I mean what are we doing here

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t see it as great news at all. Just another guy the Cubs can’t sign. And if he cost $19M annual what are the other 3 going to cost? I know there is time. I know you think they will make some bigger signing. I wish I shared your belief. Even a guy like Stroman. What is he going to cost? I am started to wish he didn’t opt out because I doubt they get anyone better than him via free agency. 

I think it would be best for the Cubs if Stroman didn't opt out. 

I think the Cubs are in a situation that's different than the last couple of offseasons because most of their best prospects are in AAA or AA and pretty close.  I think they'll go short-term on as many guys as they can, but that may just not be possible at every position.  If the Cubs sign a SP longterm it will be a rotation with only 2 open spots going forward to fit Horton, Wicks, Brown, Assad, Wesneski etc. unless they go with a 6-man rotation.

Caissie, PCA, Mervis, Canario, McGeary, Murray, Horton, Wicks, Brown etc are all probably going to be in Iowa to start the year or on the MLB team.  Shaw, Alcantara, and Triantos likely start the year in AA, which means they're close too and could get called in up in a pinch like Morel and Hoerner were (though less likely because of the amount of depth at AAA).

Honestly it wouldn't shock me if they didn't sign any FA for more than 2 years, unless a great deal falls into their lap that they could flip in future seasons if needed, or keep and flip one of Happ, Suzuki, Taillon etc in the future.  I'd be surprised if a significant trade involving prospects doesn't happen before Opening Day, probably for a short-term player/pitcher.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, LBiittner said:

People here suggested he could be a good get 

Hard to get excited about back-to-back 4.90 seasons and an extreme flyball rate.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe. But maybe not if they traded for a better pitcher too. The bigger issue, for me anyway, was the annual salary. I am ok with them not getting him. But I think if he got that the top 3 pitchers will get $3M to $6M more and for at least 5 years. And I am having a hard time believing the Cubs will play in those waters. The reason I don’t think this was a good omen for the Xubs is I feel it makes those other pitchers more expensive. 

If Breslow found him intriguing enough to sign i'd figure the Cubs did too.  The AAV may have been too high above what the Cubs wanted to spend on him.  A bunch of quality SP have signed so far this offseason, that should give us a gauge.  Pitchers only can get what teams are willing to pay.  xFIP makes Giolito look better than he probably is.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

Such as?  Show your work.  Who are these teams you're scared of?  

The teams I am/was scared of grabbing a top pitcher are Boston, San Fran, and the Yankees.  With Boston making this move, I see three teams definitely in the market for a top SP and three top SPs.  If another team grabs one of those top guys I will start to get nervous, until then I'm not going to play these Chicken Little games.

Cubs came in and signed Swanson for a good value when he didn't have much leverage left after Turner/Bogaerts signed.  The Cubs may be trying to do the same here with SP.

Snell, Montgomery, Stroman, Imanaga.  I'd be fine with any of them.  The trade market also exists.

 

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

FWIW, Kaplan said on his “rekap” YouTube show that Cubs are the clear front-runners for Bellinger. Didn’t sound like his speculation either. 

Who needs a CF or OF?

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 I don’t see signing Giolito as an positive development. Period!

If Boras puts himself and his clients into a corner by waiting near the end of the offseason to sign as a deliberate strategy to try to get teams to panic (like many Cubs fans have been doing all offseason) and overpay, then why is this a bad strategy for Jed to do the same? 

Jed holds the leverage.  Cubs have a ton of prospects to deal from in trades, and so Hoyer can simply tell Boras "I don't want your client, he's too expensive so i'm going to pursue trades instead".  But for a player/pitcher whose market has dried up he has no other options other than waiting for the trade deadline.

I don't believe Jed is going to put himself in a situation where he has to become desperate, and he's not going to panic.  Like I've said, the Cubs have options this offseason and can remain flexible.  Jed's gone down to the wire many times over the years at the trade deadline and offseason so we have to assume he knows what he's doing.

[thawv]

12 hours ago, Bertz said:

We is us, here.  People here would be PISSED if this was the Cubs' big pitching addition, and rightfully so.

But is it really bad if the other alternative is to add nobody?  If he was one of 2 or 3, and he was the best, I can see your point.  But Lucas over nobody is the clear choice for me. 

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

If Boras puts himself and his clients into a corner by waiting near the end of the offseason to sign as a deliberate strategy to try to get teams to panic (like many Cubs fans have been doing all offseason) and overpay, then why is this a bad strategy for Jed to do the same? 

Jed holds the leverage.  Cubs have a ton of prospects to deal from in trades, and so Hoyer can simply tell Boras "I don't want your client, he's too expensive so i'm going to pursue trades instead".  But for a player/pitcher whose market has dried up he has no other options other than waiting for the trade deadline.

I don't believe Jed is going to put himself in a situation where he has to become desperate, and he's not going to panic.  Like I've said, the Cubs have options this offseason and can remain flexible.  Jed's gone down to the wire many times over the years at the trade deadline and offseason so we have to assume he knows what he's doing.

But does Jed really have the leverage when much of the discussion is based on Jed not wanting to risk trading prospects.  Outside of PCA, Horton, and Shaw, the prospects are secondary pieces in a trade.

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

But is it really bad if the other alternative is to add nobody?  If he was one of 2 or 3, and he was the best, I can see your point.  But Lucas over nobody is the clear choice for me. 

That's a false choice though.  The Cubs have, COVID aside, always spent right up to the LT line.  We have good reason to expect they're going over it this year, but we *know* Jed is going to spend at least $40M this winter.  We also know Jed is very conservative in regards to pitching depth, so it's silly to think a SP addition isn't earmarked for (it's pretty clearly the 2nd biggest hold on the roster after 1B).

Jed might miss on one of the lefties, there are only three of them after all.  But the realistic worst case scenario is like Bieber or a Stroman reunion, not just letting it fly with Wicks and Assad both in the opening day rotation.

[gflore34]

Jed' apparent MO of waiting until a given players' market dries up may work.  But, won't Boras have clients hold out just as long?  Effectively creating a stalemate?

Speaking of Boras' clients what's the deal with Hoskins?  Coming off season missed due to injury, he's got to be in the "prove it" mode, what's the strategy to him holding out? He hasn't any leverage.

[Jfoley89]

I don't think Jed is completely incompetent. I do think he's cheap, and would be the perfect gm for the Cardinals or Angels. The problem is he's wasting the advantages a franchise like the Cubs should have.  He seems to be building a more sustainable farm system than Theo did, but his expenditures at the major league level are iffy at best.  Being cheap last year is costing us over 10m this year on guys that aren't on the team

[gflore34]

18 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

I don't think Jed is completely incompetent. I do think he's cheap, and would be the perfect gm for the Cardinals or Angels. The problem is he's wasting the advantages a franchise like the Cubs should have.  He seems to be building a more sustainable farm system than Theo did, but his expenditures at the major league level are iffy at best.  Being cheap last year is costing us over 10m this year on guys that aren't on the team

Oh, he's a tight-wad, told us so with his winning the off-season BS.  Well, the Dodgers are winning/won the off-season and they're going to win the regular season Jed.

[Illiterate Scholar]

53 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Jed' apparent MO of waiting until a given players' market dries up may work.  But, won't Boras have clients hold out just as long?  Effectively creating a stalemate?

Speaking of Boras' clients what's the deal with Hoskins?  Coming off season missed due to injury, he's got to be in the "prove it" mode, what's the strategy to him holding out? He hasn't any leverage.

I've been surprised as well that Hoskins hasn't signed yet since he's not a 9 figure guy. And with the way people were tweeting about it at the meetings, it certainly felt like there would be a match with him and the Cubs. I'm thinking the holdup is Jed wants to do something like last year's Bellinger deal and Boras is looking for the Conforto deal (~2/36 with a player opt out).

 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

That's a false choice though.  The Cubs have, COVID aside, always spent right up to the LT line.  We have good reason to expect they're going over it this year, but we *know* Jed is going to spend at least $40M this winter.  We also know Jed is very conservative in regards to pitching depth, so it's silly to think a SP addition isn't earmarked for (it's pretty clearly the 2nd biggest hold on the roster after 1B).

Jed might miss on one of the lefties, there are only three of them after all.  But the realistic worst case scenario is like Bieber or a Stroman reunion, not just letting it fly with Wicks and Assad both in the opening day rotation.

I agree a worst case scenario is Bieber(or similar) in a trade or Stroman as a free agent. But then what? If they do get Bieber in a trade I hope they get Naylor too. That adds a lefty bat without spending a lot. They can still probably spend on a free agent bat and a pen arm. 

[Bertz]

Reds need pitching bad, but they're also very cheap.  I could see either side to whether this takes them out on Cease/Bieber.

 

[chibears55]

12 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

This offseason is full of weird emotions. The surprise and the high expectations coming off the Counsell signing, the excitement of the Ohtani pursuit, the realization that the Cubs weren't really all in on Ohtani and were never really in on either Yamamoto or Soto either. Then with each passing name, convincing myself that this is the one that's going to break the dam and yet the days of nothing continue to drag on. Now I just kind of alternate daily between desperation like "surely Jed is going to make a move today, he has to do something soon, right?" and the next day it's an apathy filled "I'm not sure I really care anymore, the odds of Jed putting an exciting team on the field is pretty low at this point, so whatever". 

I think for me once Bellinger is off the board and if he doesn't return,  that when I'll be in the I dont care much anymore.

Next would be Hoskins and then the 3 with QO attached to them in Chapman, Hader, and Snell and I'd be a bit surprise if they give up a draft pick by signing one.

After those guys, there not much left that will wow me if they sign and I just dont see them giving up any of their top prospects to get back any real quality mlb player in return. 

[Tryptamine]

It's a shame, because this is a gamble I would have been willing to take. Even if he doesn't pan out as a starter, you have the makings of a dominant pen arm.

[Jason Ross]

Braves acquire Chris Sale and $$ for Grissom+.

 

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I think for me once Bellinger is off the board and if he doesn't return,  that when I'll be in the I dont care much anymore.

Next would be Hoskins and then the 3 with QO attached to them in Chapman, Hader, and Snell and I'd be a bit surprise if they give up a draft pick by signing one.

After those guys, there not much left that will wow me if they sign and I just dont see them giving up any of their top prospects to get back any real quality mlb player in return. 

If they don’t get Bellinger they get a draft pick for him. I doubt losing a pick would stop them from signing someone. I agree that they would rather not lose the pick, but if they had to I think they would. As for trades, what about Bieber? He isn’t going to cost much. I would consider him a quality mlb player. 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Braves acquire Chris Sale and $$ for Grissom+.

 

The specifics on the money probably impacts how heavily Boston gets back into the SP pool.  They were purportedly just gonna run it back with James Paxton prior to this.

[Jfoley89]

I like the Sale deal for the Braves.  Not a move for where the Cubs are on the competitive curve, but it's a solid gamble for the price

[Rob]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Braves acquire Chris Sale and $$ for Grissom+.

 

I'm envious. That's a good fit for Atlanta. They don't need to rely on him literally at all during the regular season, so they can try to save his arm mostly for the postseason. And if they manage to have a healthy Chris Sale during a postseason run, that's potentially a gamechanger for them.

ETA: It ought to go without saying that the Cubs aren't in a similar "don't need to rely on this guy to make the postseason" situation. Our chips need to be spent on reliable guys just to get us there.

Edited December 30, 2023 by Rob

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Braves acquire Chris Sale and $$ for Grissom+.

 

Unless it is a large amount of money I don’t understand this deal. Braves appear to be fixing up someone significantly more valuable than Sale. This doesn’t help the Cubs if the Guardians hold Bieber until getting something like Grissom. But I guess the money matters to. And then, now that Sale is gone, doesn’t that put the Red Aox back into the pitching market. Jed really needs to start doing something!!!!