Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bull]

9 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Doesn't change the fact. The Cubs will have to hand out a 200 mil plus contract eventually even if hoyer is afraid. Just pathetic the Royals beat them to it. 

Changing definitions does, in fact, change facts. That’s why there are so many conflicting “studies” out there on everything from “are eggs good for you” to gender dysphasia. You change definitions and metrics, you change conclusions.

Of all places, a baseball board that has gone from measuring success in pitcher wins and RBI to appreciating advanced metrics should be a place where this is understood.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

If they were smart, they would front load it so he's easier to trade him when they realize that they're sill not a good team with him, and want to get out from under what's left of the contract.   

They could just agree to pay for some of the contract like Rockies and Arenado.

[Rob]

It's also worth noting the Cubs haven't had a lot of guys like Bobby Witt Jr. to sign to massive $200M+ extensions. 23, coming off a 5.7 fWAR season, former #2 overall prospect in MLB...

The only real comp we have had in the last twenty years is Kris Bryant. And he's a Boras client. Also, Theo was still in charge then.

Rizzo and Bryant both had a bit more age and service time on them when they broke out, and neither had quite the prospect pedigree (though both were highly regarded at times). And again, Theo was still in charge then.

[squally1313]

It's just a stupid, bad faith argument. He can go back and pick and choose the players who signed big contracts and turned out good and use that as an indictment against the Cubs FO, because, obviously all those players were desperate to play here, while ignoring all the terrible contracts, the internal development, the very good position the Cubs currently find themselves in, etc. Just sign only good players, idiots, what, like it's hard?

The Royals just committed 4 more years and $111m more to a shortstop who is projected to outproduce Dansby by 0.1 fWAR next year. But yes, dick sucking jokes, nice. 

[Bertz]

I think the safe assumption for the rest of the offseason is one of Bellinger/Chapman, an opportunistic ST-eve deal for another bat and/or reliever, and call it a day.

Assuming that's correct, I think the above from Tommy is what will stick out most to me as a missed opportunity this winter.  These are the prospect bats of note who will (likely) open the year at AA or AAA.  Guys with *'s are already on the 40 man guys with +'s have to be added next winter

PCA*

Caissie+

Canario*

Vazquez*

Mervis*

Davis*

Murray+

Alcantara*

Triantos

Ballesteros 

Shaw

McGeary

Franklin+

Aliendo+

Pagan+

Only making one trade this winter, and having the currency in that deal be guys who were a million miles away, would feel like a waste.  Like you don't even have to do anything crazy, even just turning one or two of the guys already on the 40 into their weight in relief help feels plenty productive.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the safe assumption for the rest of the offseason is one of Bellinger/Chapman, an opportunistic ST-eve deal for another bat and/or reliever, and call it a day.

Assuming that's correct, I think the above from Tommy is what will stick out most to me as a missed opportunity this winter.  These are the prospect bats of note who will (likely) open the year at AA or AAA.  Guys with *'s are already on the 40 man guys with +'s have to be added next winter

Only making one trade this winter, and having the currency in that deal be guys who were a million miles away, would feel like a waste.  Like you don't even have to do anything crazy, even just turning one or two of the guys already on the 40 into their weight in relief help feels plenty productive.

In this vein, I think my biggest criticism of the current front office approach is not really recognizing the half-life or potential for decreases in value of the assets they've accumulated.  Paper clip trading your way to success is fine in the macro lens, but at a certain point the value you've accrued has an opportunity cost for not using your assets to maximize it.  You see it in how they're probably not putting *everything* they could into one of the 3 year window they created with the current core, and stacking too many high level prospects until some inevitably lose value due to lack of opportunity(a la Busch, who you just traded for as a potentially distressed asset) feels like an avoidable problem.

That said, I do think the amount in which they have true excess is probably overstated by us, and they also aren't counting on all of those guys making big league impact.  But maybe pick a lane a beat earlier and risk selling the wrong one if you have a real chance to make yourself a more clear contender.

[Bertz]

38 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

In this vein, I think my biggest criticism of the current front office approach is not really recognizing the half-life or potential for decreases in value of the assets they've accumulated.  Paper clip trading your way to success is fine in the macro lens, but at a certain point the value you've accrued has an opportunity cost for not using your assets to maximize it.  You see it in how they're probably not putting *everything* they could into one of the 3 year window they created with the current core, and stacking too many high level prospects until some inevitably lose value due to lack of opportunity(a la Busch, who you just traded for as a potentially distressed asset) feels like an avoidable problem.

That said, I do think the amount in which they have true excess is probably overstated by us, and they also aren't counting on all of those guys making big league impact.  But maybe pick a lane a beat earlier and risk selling the wrong one if you have a real chance to make yourself a more clear contender.

Yeah I think this puts it really well.  I'd obviously love flashy trades for like Juan Soto, but honestly even Jed just putting his Dipoto hat on occasionally and making a couple more Velazquez for Cuas type trades I think is warranted.

Like Canario is a great example.  He seemingly has some value, he also seems very likely to be on the outside looking in for a consistent spot on the MLB roster.  It's going to be really annoying next November when he's out of options and only has ~200 MLB at bats under his belt and they have to dump him for pennies on the dollar.  Like you said an avoidable problem, and negates a lot of the value gained on the margins elsewhere.

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think this puts it really well.  I'd obviously love flashy trades for like Juan Soto, but honestly even Jed just putting his Dipoto hat on occasionally and making a couple more Velazquez for Cuas type trades I think is warranted.

Like Canario is a great example.  He seemingly has some value, he also seems very likely to be on the outside looking in for a consistent spot on the MLB roster.  It's going to be really annoying next November when he's out of options and only has ~200 MLB at bats under his belt and they have to dump him for pennies on the dollar.  Like you said an avoidable problem, and negates a lot of the value gained on the margins elsewhere.

This is part of why I disliked the Happ extension. Yes, it locked in "good" production. But there were going to be so many options to fill that spot that I just didn't see the need to lock up that position and that salary.

[Tryptamine]

58 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Nfn but are the options so numerous? Canario ain’t it. Davis hasn’t hit in 2 years. Caissie may end up a platoon guy. Alcantara can’t hit. Crow-Armstrong’s a CF

I suspect Canario just doesn’t appeal to other teams in even a small trade. Multiple shoulder separations,  the ankle, declining defense and speed, and then a high chase high whiff approach to boot

 

He put up a 124 wRC+ at A+ in his season where he spent most of it as a 20 year old. He didn't destroy the league or anything, but there's nothing wrong with that line for a guy who also plays good defense. It's far from "can't hit".

[Tryptamine]

56 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I was too slow to come up with 4th OFer 

Mean while BJ Murray's 128 wRC+ at age 24 in AA is worthy of starting at 3B for the big league team, am I right?

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think the safe assumption for the rest of the offseason is one of Bellinger/Chapman, an opportunistic ST-eve deal for another bat and/or reliever, and call it a day.

Assuming that's correct, I think the above from Tommy is what will stick out most to me as a missed opportunity this winter.  These are the prospect bats of note who will (likely) open the year at AA or AAA.  Guys with *'s are already on the 40 man guys with +'s have to be added next winter

PCA*

Caissie+

Canario*

Vazquez*

Mervis*

Davis*

Murray+

Alcantara*

Triantos

Ballesteros 

Shaw

McGeary

Franklin+

Aliendo+

Pagan+

Only making one trade this winter, and having the currency in that deal be guys who were a million miles away, would feel like a waste.  Like you don't even have to do anything crazy, even just turning one or two of the guys already on the 40 into their weight in relief help feels plenty productive.

They can make a trade before OD and probably will.  But depending on the 40-man situation they can also wait and use these guys as depth pieces who can help them this year.  They have at least one good prospect in AAA or AA at every position on the diamond.  They probably also want to have expendable prospects to deal at the trade deadline to fill MLB holes.

But they will have to start making some trades eventually. If guys in AA like Shaw, Alcantara, Triantos etc are ready for a promotion to AAA mid-season then there's likely going to be a roster crunch in Iowa and playing time issues.

The Cubs are in a great situation.  Sign Bellinger and someone like Happ or Suzuki can be dealt over the next couple of seasons to acquire an upgrade elsewhere or to reload the farm.  If Caissie or Alcantara eventually come up and hit well then potentially both Happ/Suzuki could be traded.  Nico may also be traded near the end of his extension.

We're starting to have a lot of assets now.  I'd like to see them eventually use some of it to acquire some controllable pre-FA all-star quality players from smaller market teams.  I'd much rather have those kinds of assets in their primes that can be later flipped or extended than signing these longterm FA mega-deals and watching those assets age & depreciate into someone worthless.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Tim said:

This is part of why I disliked the Happ extension. Yes, it locked in "good" production. But there were going to be so many options to fill that spot that I just didn't see the need to lock up that position and that salary.

Happ is a good asset on a good contract and young enough to be unlikely to depreciate in value much over the course of the contract.  Like Darvish, he can likely be traded for prospects or whomever even with a NTC.  I don't see much downside or risk compared to any FA they may have signed instead with that money.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, The20thK said:

I know I’ll catch some flack for this but in light of all that has come out on the situation, Trevor Bauer would be an awesome flyer. He is getting 3.3 to play in Japan this year and I doubt it would take much more than that to sign him to an mlb deal.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think this puts it really well.  I'd obviously love flashy trades for like Juan Soto, but honestly even Jed just putting his Dipoto hat on occasionally and making a couple more Velazquez for Cuas type trades I think is warranted.

Like Canario is a great example.  He seemingly has some value, he also seems very likely to be on the outside looking in for a consistent spot on the MLB roster.  It's going to be really annoying next November when he's out of options and only has ~200 MLB at bats under his belt and they have to dump him for pennies on the dollar.  Like you said an avoidable problem, and negates a lot of the value gained on the margins elsewhere.

Canario is an asset on this team in 2024 though.  He can be in the mix at DH, he's a solid backup for Happ and Suzuki in case of injury, and a general bench option, similar to Velazquez or what Soler was.  I don't think Velazquez hurt his trade value getting a couple hundred PA's in the MLB.  His tools didn't change and I don't think teams are going to make significant sways in judgement on a young player based on a couple hundred PA's.  There can be some potential reduction in value but I think actually using a player in a depth role has value as well, and the Cubs have the potential to discover additional surprise value from some players by playing them, like what happened with Morel and Steele.

Over the last 6 months, the Cubs have traded Hertz, Made, Velazquez, and Ferris for MLB or MLB-ready assets and more will happen.  I don't think they're going to let a whole bunch of their prospects rot on a vine.

[CubinNY]

6 hours ago, The20thK said:

I know I’ll catch some flack for this but in light of all that has come out on the situation, Trevor Bauer would be an awesome flyer. He is getting 3.3 to play in Japan this year and I doubt it would take much more than that to sign him to an mlb deal.

Completely on Brand. How about Urias? 

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Happ is a good asset on a good contract and young enough to be unlikely to depreciate in value much over the course of the contract.  Like Darvish, he can likely be traded for prospects or whomever even with a NTC.  I don't see much downside or risk compared to any FA they may have signed instead with that money.

I think the point of the post suggesting they have so many prospects they will start making some trades is to trade the prospects for proven talent. Not trade the proven talent on the team to open up spots for the prospects. Which is what you are implying. The prospects are assets right now. If they wait, sure one might show he deserves to be in the majors and actually become a quality major leaguer. But more will falter and fall off. Now is the time to trade Alcantara, Triantos, Shaw, Cassie, Murray, Ballasteros, Canario, Mervis, and several other prospects for major league talent. Not all of them, but they should package a couple with maybe some lesser known guys to bring in a young”ish” major league talent with 3 or so years of control left. I think that is what the original story about them having so many prospects was alluding to. Now is the time to use those assets to help the 24’ team as well as the team the next several years. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Completely on Brand. How about Urias? 

Bring Addison Russell back too! 

Edited February 6, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rob]

20 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Cool story… ignorant, but cool to insinuate that the two events are remotely the same. 

Yeah, Urias only has allegations of violence against him from one woman!

[Bertz]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Canario is an asset on this team in 2024 though.  He can be in the mix at DH, he's a solid backup for Happ and Suzuki in case of injury, and a general bench option, similar to Velazquez or what Soler was.  I don't think Velazquez hurt his trade value getting a couple hundred PA's in the MLB.  His tools didn't change and I don't think teams are going to make significant sways in judgement on a young player based on a couple hundred PA's.  There can be some potential reduction in value but I think actually using a player in a depth role has value as well, and the Cubs have the potential to discover additional surprise value from some players by playing them, like what happened with Morel and Steele.

Over the last 6 months, the Cubs have traded Hertz, Made, Velazquez, and Ferris for MLB or MLB-ready assets and more will happen.  I don't think they're going to let a whole bunch of their prospects rot on a vine.

Canario's got a tough path to playing time.  Right now he's behind Happ, Suzuki, and Tauchman in the outfield, and Morel/Wisdom at DH.  That’s not an impossible mix to worm his way into.

But we know the team is adding at least one bat, with Bellinger or Chapman being likely.  If it's Bellinger that adds a guy directly in front of Canario in the OF.  If it's Chapman it doesn't directly impact him,  however Jed failing to reel in a lefty will mean there's more incentive to get LHH bats into the lineup elsewhere, so Tauchman is probably the most days CF (especially with his pretty nominal platoon splits).

Complicating things more is that it's not just the guys in front of him, it's the ones behind him.  PCA is the org's golden child and is at roughly the same developmental level, probably a smidge behind.  By mid season Owen Caissie is also likely to be competing for any non CF at bats Canario might be sniffing around for.

If Canario was a more legit CF, or had a starker platoon split like, it'd be easier to see him carving a specific role on the MLB bench.  But as is he seems likely to fill a Mastrobuoni type role of "first guy up from Ioea to be the last guy on the bench".  If he wasn't going into his last option year that'd be a little wasteful but ultimately fine.  As is his value drops like a stone the closer we get to November without him having proved definitively if he belongs in MLB.

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Canario's got a tough path to playing time.  Right now he's behind Happ, Suzuki, and Tauchman in the outfield, and Morel/Wisdom at DH.  That’s not an impossible mix to worm his way into.

But we know the team is adding at least one bat, with Bellinger or Chapman being likely.  If it's Bellinger that adds a guy directly in front of Canario in the OF.  If it's Chapman it doesn't directly impact him,  however Jed failing to reel in a lefty will mean there's more incentive to get LHH bats into the lineup elsewhere, so Tauchman is probably the most days CF (especially with his pretty nominal platoon splits).

Complicating things more is that it's not just the guys in front of him, it's the ones behind him.  PCA is the org's golden child and is at roughly the same developmental level, probably a smidge behind.  By mid season Owen Caissie is also likely to be competing for any non CF at bats Canario might be sniffing around for.

If Canario was a more legit CF, or had a starker platoon split like, it'd be easier to see him carving a specific role on the MLB bench.  But as is he seems likely to fill a Mastrobuoni type role of "first guy up from Ioea to be the last guy on the bench".  If he wasn't going into his last option year that'd be a little wasteful but ultimately fine.  As is his value drops like a stone the closer we get to November without him having proved definitively if he belongs in MLB.

Tauchman is a mirage, but yes. I agree with Tim. The Happ extension was a huge misstep by Jed. 

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Tauchman is a mirage, but yes. I agree with Tim. The Happ extension was a huge misstep by Jed. 

That's beyond what I'm saying. I don't like it, but "huge misstep" is too much.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah I can't see a real path to Canario making an impact in 2024 outside of a bunch of injuries. Today, I'd assume the OF depth chart looks something like: Suzuki/Happ/Tauchmann with PCA in the wings and Canario fifth. But if (and likely when) they add in Bellinger, Canario will quickly slide to the sixth spot. At DH, you have Busch/Morel/Wisdom probably ahead of him (with some movement at other positions and 1b), but also will probably add in Bellinger there, too. I don't think he's really in the mix for anything once the dust settles and would need, maybe, two injuries in the first half of the season to make a contribution. Once July hits, you might add in Murray/Shaw/Caissie into the DH/OF mix (or pushing a player into the DH mix). End result, I just don't see a path for Canario here to get more than a token >100 PA's in 2024. For a player who's on their last option, it's just not enough to be considered an asset. 

[Tim]

All of that is true...but I really like Canario. I think he's got a chance to force himself into some playing time. It's a really nice problem to have.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the point of the post suggesting they have so many prospects they will start making some trades is to trade the prospects for proven talent. Not trade the proven talent on the team to open up spots for the prospects. Which is what you are implying. The prospects are assets right now. If they wait, sure one might show he deserves to be in the majors and actually become a quality major leaguer. But more will falter and fall off. Now is the time to trade Alcantara, Triantos, Shaw, Cassie, Murray, Ballasteros, Canario, Mervis, and several other prospects for major league talent. Not all of them, but they should package a couple with maybe some lesser known guys to bring in a young”ish” major league talent with 3 or so years of control left. I think that is what the original story about them having so many prospects was alluding to. Now is the time to use those assets to help the 24’ team as well as the team the next several years. 

I totally agree.  Having depth is one thing, but having a glut of "potentially good prospects" while there are holes in the current roster doesn't make any sense.  Some of these players have high trade value which could decrease a lot if they struggle at all.  Decide which players truly have the potential and a path to the ML level and then package some of the rest to acquire what we need now.

[mul21]

9 hours ago, The20thK said:

I know I’ll catch some flack for this but in light of all that has come out on the situation, Trevor Bauer would be an awesome flyer. He is getting 3.3 to play in Japan this year and I doubt it would take much more than that to sign him to an mlb deal.

Outside of him being a garbage person and by all accounts a bad teammate, seems like a great idea, especially if you ignore all the other stuff and that he's probably not actually good anymore, plus MLB hates him for the sticky stuff issue (right or wrong, it's a thing).